I am glad you made some money, but if you don't want to get into a arguement, then don't start one. You are the one who called my forcast living in a 'dream world' and stated how I've 'been wrong several times before' without actually showing any. I'll stick by my specific predictions which so far have been far more accurate then any of yours. When the DOW drops 35% or even below the now upwardly revised 6500, call me.
"First, the S&P is sitting around 860 right now. Corporate earnings for them were about $30 a year ago, but analysits are expecting earning of $47 (a more pessimistic estimate is probably around $40-42). So at current value, the S&P is only trading at a P&E of around 18 if earnings come in as expected."
Here is a quote from the S&P 500 Web site:
Standard & Poor's Core Earnings Figures Released for the
S&P 500
New Earnings Definition Indicates Lower EPS Results than As-Reported Earnings with Pension Expenses a Major Factor
New York, October 24, 2002
–Standard & Poor's, the independent financial research and ratings leader, today announced that Standard & Poor’s Core Earnings for the S&P 500 Index for the 12 months ended June 2002 were $18.48 per share compared to as-reported earnings per share (EPS) of $26.74.
So, your earnings numbers are wrong (according to the S&P 500) by a significant margin. Price divided by these earnings are well over 40 (not 19 as you stated on another thread). WRONG...
You predicted a "bottom" in July, then another (lower) one in October. I think we are in a bear market rally. Maybe I'm wrong and I will admit it to you next July, if the Dow is at 11,000 (as you predicted last July). Predicting false bottoms is the definition of wrong...