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FINAL ZOGBY 'SPECIAL SAUCE' NUMBERS (Polling at 9PM last night)
Zogby America/MSNBC /Newseek ^ | November 4, 2002 | John Zogby

Posted on 11/05/2002 7:08:16 AM PST by pollster

FINAL ZOGBY NUMBERS (two sets of figures, first is factoring in leaners and eliminating undecideds 'special sauce', second set is raw data)

SD SENATE THUNE (R) OVER JOHNSON (D) 52-47 (48-44)

TEXAS SENATE CORNYN (R) OVER KIRK (D) 50-46 (46-42)

NC SENATE DOLE (R) OVER BOWLES (D) 53-43 (46-39)

MN SENATE MONDALE (R) OVER COLEMAN (D) 51-45 (49-44)

GA SENATE CLELAND (D) OVER CHAMBLISS (R) 50-48 (46-44)

CO SENATE STRICKLAND (D) OVER ALLARD (R) 51-46 (49-44)

AR SENATE PRYOR (D) OVER HUTCHINSON (R) 56-43 (50-41)


TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: johnzogby; marginoferror; senateraces; thespecialsauce
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IF WE WIN GEORGIA AND CO. WE WILL TAKE BACK THE SENATE!

If I can get exit polls I will post them here as well.

1 posted on 11/05/2002 7:08:16 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
Q ERTY7
FIGURATIVE DROOL
election day
BUMP!
clinton-McAuliffe-DNC SYSTEMATICALLY CORRUPTING ALL ASPECTS OF ELECTORAL PROCESS
 
WHILE UNDERMINING HOMELAND SECURITY
 
WE MUST STOP IT NOW!

 

 

 

 

2 posted on 11/05/2002 7:10:18 AM PST by Mia T
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To: pollster
If Thune wins S.D., we give The Dasshole a kick in the pants!
3 posted on 11/05/2002 7:11:25 AM PST by Redbob
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To: Mia T
I still think Owens will carry Allard in Colordo
4 posted on 11/05/2002 7:12:13 AM PST by scooby321
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To: Redbob
And Cornyn's going to whip Kirk in Texas, 55% - 43%!
5 posted on 11/05/2002 7:12:56 AM PST by Redbob
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To: Redbob
I also put Mondale as an 'R' (its been a long night)

GA. is a tossup that one we have to have

6 posted on 11/05/2002 7:13:23 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
I hope he is wrong about Arkansas...
7 posted on 11/05/2002 7:14:00 AM PST by Outlaw76
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To: scooby321
I still don't know how that Colorado race is trending out of dead heat terroritory, it has been there for weeks!
8 posted on 11/05/2002 7:14:13 AM PST by pollster
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To: Outlaw76
The Arkansas race has been that way for a while. I just wish I knew we had a handle on Colorado!
9 posted on 11/05/2002 7:17:38 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
Zogby is all alone giving the Dems easy wins. We'll see.
10 posted on 11/05/2002 7:21:50 AM PST by pabianice
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To: pollster
MN SENATE MONDALE (R) OVER COLEMAN (D) 51-45 (49-44)

So who wins this one?

11 posted on 11/05/2002 7:22:29 AM PST by 2banana
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To: pabianice
No change in the Senate even with the Georgia tossup, (according to Zogby) we win that one and control is ours!
12 posted on 11/05/2002 7:23:24 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
He must not have seen the same debate I did between Chambliss and Cleland.
13 posted on 11/05/2002 7:25:26 AM PST by Dog Gone
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To: Mia T
I hope Ashcroft's guys are ready with pencils sharpened. Those little old ladies in Broward County, walking dead in Chicago and street denizens in St Louis are gonna really give 'em a workout before the polls close.
14 posted on 11/05/2002 7:26:17 AM PST by skeeter
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To: 2banana
It should be MONDALE (D) OVER COLEMAN (R) 51-44 (49-44)

Also Zogby on his subscriber service has LAUTENBERG (D) OVER FORRESTER 55-42 (49-38)

15 posted on 11/05/2002 7:26:34 AM PST by pollster
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To: skeeter
I think Zogby factors in Rat frauds when he does these polls..
16 posted on 11/05/2002 7:27:20 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
Mondale winning? I'm sick.
17 posted on 11/05/2002 7:28:08 AM PST by FryingPan101
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To: pollster
The bloggers at your post link are liberal POS. Why should we give their compilation of polling numbers any more credibility than Salon.com?
18 posted on 11/05/2002 7:28:45 AM PST by Cyber Liberty
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To: pollster
Already posted here:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/782434/posts

19 posted on 11/05/2002 7:28:46 AM PST by BlackRazor
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To: Cyber Liberty
Becuse they paid for the numbers off the website.
20 posted on 11/05/2002 7:29:24 AM PST by pollster
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To: BlackRazor
I read that thread and the final count was not on there.
21 posted on 11/05/2002 7:29:57 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
Osama Zogby was everywhere last night but I was shocked by what he had said on Kudlow and Cramer on CNBC. Paraphrazing: 'I give Rove a lot of credit for perfectly timing the Iraq issue'. Even if true (which it is not) the polster has no business of opinionating this way. IMHO of course.
22 posted on 11/05/2002 7:30:19 AM PST by Former_russian
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To: pollster
This is what I think.


Senate
Democrat Seats
Toss-up Lose Win
MN SD MT
GA MO IA
IL
MI
LA
WV
NJ
RI
MA
DE
Republican Seats
Toss-up Lose Win
CO AR TX
NH TN
NC
SC
OR
ID
WY
NM
NE
KS
OK
MS
AL
KY
MS
AL
KY
VA
ME
AK


23 posted on 11/05/2002 7:30:22 AM PST by BillCompton
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To: pollster
No numbers on Sununu/Shaheen or Talent/Carnahan? If GOP wins both of these plus Thune over Johnson, and eventually beat Landrieu in the runoff, it won't matter if Hutchinson and Allard lose. I thought Zogby was polling for Sununu's campaign.

Scott Rasmussen told Sean Hannity last night that he had just polled in Colorado and thought Allard would pull it out. He thought the Senate would come down to Georgia and possibly to the runoff in Louisiana.

24 posted on 11/05/2002 7:30:45 AM PST by Dems_R_Losers
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To: BillCompton
I think New Hampshire is trending our way and Minnesota is going the Democrats way.

That leaves Georgia to decide the shooting match whether there will be no change or the GOP takes back the Senate.

25 posted on 11/05/2002 7:32:22 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
I read that thread and the final count was not on there.

What do you mean? All the numbers you've listed are there on the original thread.

26 posted on 11/05/2002 7:33:02 AM PST by BlackRazor
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To: Dems_R_Losers
Rasmussen is dead on every poll in New Hampshire has us pulling it out! And Colorado is a toss up despite what Zogby says..
27 posted on 11/05/2002 7:33:55 AM PST by pollster
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To: BlackRazor
Those were the old numbers, not the raw ones from last night.
28 posted on 11/05/2002 7:35:08 AM PST by pollster
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To: Dems_R_Losers
Zogby stated last night on Laura Ingraham that while he could not release a public poll since he was polling for the Sununu campaign, that his numbers showed Sununu winning. Also said Talent will win MO by 5 pts.
29 posted on 11/05/2002 7:35:20 AM PST by commish
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To: 2banana
No way Mondale wins this one IMO...no way.
30 posted on 11/05/2002 7:36:28 AM PST by Solson
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To: pollster
Just like the people who forcast the weather, if Zogby is wrong he won't be held accountable and will be pontificating as an "expert" on all the shows in the next election.

I prefer to just wait and see...

31 posted on 11/05/2002 7:37:43 AM PST by Russ
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To: pollster
Those were the old numbers, not the raw ones from last night.

Nope. Maybe you should re-read it. They were posted by a Zogby subscriber the moment he got the numbers in, just before midnight. The numbers are the same ones you've posted.

32 posted on 11/05/2002 7:37:46 AM PST by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor
I must have missed the post. I tried to read the responses on the thread and didn't get any numbers
33 posted on 11/05/2002 7:39:00 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
I must have missed the post. I tried to read the responses on the thread and didn't get any numbers

They weren't in a post. They were in the original body of the main thread.

34 posted on 11/05/2002 7:40:06 AM PST by BlackRazor
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To: pollster
Am i the only one who gets sea sick from reading Zogby poll results.. they seem to go up.. and down.. left and right... *Face turns green*.. *gulp*. *reaches for barf bag*
35 posted on 11/05/2002 7:40:54 AM PST by Living_the_life_of_Dilbert
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To: pollster
It's kinda funny, I think Zogby redid his poll to more closely conform with all the other polls showing movement in the Republican direction. Every poll that came out over the weekend showed strong movement in the Republican direction, but Zogby showed most senate races breaking Democrat. I'm very suspicous that he is just jumbling the numbers so his final poll won't look so bad in retrospect, trying to save his reputation.
36 posted on 11/05/2002 7:41:01 AM PST by The Vast Right Wing
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To: BlackRazor
The results you are referring to (in the original post) is the polling from Nov 2. not from last night
37 posted on 11/05/2002 7:44:04 AM PST by pollster
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To: The Vast Right Wing
And he is putting out big margins for error as well.
38 posted on 11/05/2002 7:45:55 AM PST by pollster
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To: Outlaw76
Arkansas is over. Pryor won this race a long time ago.

Many voters in Arkansas think he cheated on his wife with a worker (the one he married)-- something that is not established as fact.
39 posted on 11/05/2002 7:46:30 AM PST by GraniteStateConservative
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To: pollster
The results you are referring to (in the original post) is the polling from Nov 2. not from last night

They are three-day tracking averages from Nov. 2-4. Look at the numbers for every poll. They are all exactly the same as the numbers you posted.

40 posted on 11/05/2002 7:47:41 AM PST by BlackRazor
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To: BlackRazor
Youre right, that auto feature blocked out the article while I was reading the thread.
41 posted on 11/05/2002 7:48:33 AM PST by pollster
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To: Redbob
And Cornyn's going to whip Kirk in Texas, 55% - 43%!

Yeaaaaaaah!!!!! Whip A*S!!!!

42 posted on 11/05/2002 8:02:04 AM PST by shiva
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To: Dems_R_Losers
Scott Rasmussen told Sean Hannity last night that he had just polled in Colorado and thought Allard would pull it out. He thought the Senate would come down to Georgia and possibly to the runoff in Louisiana.

Do you not even remember the election 2000 debacle that was Scott Rsmussen and the Portrait of America poll? He had Bush winning 41 states and leading Gore by 9 points. People here lost money betting co-workers, family, and friends by listening to Rasmussen 2 years ago.

My prediction on the other hand is that the Senate will be either 51-48-1 or 50-49-1.. either way. Some of these races will be tight. Georgia, Texas, and Colorado will decide who controls the Senate.

43 posted on 11/05/2002 8:06:15 AM PST by dogbyte12
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To: dogbyte12
Isn't Texas in the bank?
44 posted on 11/05/2002 8:07:27 AM PST by pollster
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To: pollster
But does he factor in who sits in the AG's office?

Reno vs. Ashcroft?

45 posted on 11/05/2002 8:08:38 AM PST by skeeter
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To: pollster
From my experience, the truly relevant numbers are the trend numbers. Where you have a race where the numbers show a two point difference from September 1 to election day; the turnout comes in on the projected number; the result is the same two point difference--it was a close race; it was always a close race; but there were two percent more D's than R's (or they consistently voted the 2% local graveyard successfully).

On the other hand, I have been involved in many political campaigns where the R is down six on the weekend before the election but is running an effective campaign where the down six was down twelve the weekend earlier and where the result on Tuesday is that the R wins by two.

Because of the late insertion of Mondale, you can't get real hard numbers on what the trend there is doing although my sense of things is that it is running for Coleman.

The problem for Colorado and it is of interest on this site, is not the basic Allard-Strickland race, there is a Libertarian who is running hard to the right of Allard and the trend that is important is that his number has gone from fractional (below one percent) to over five percent, primarily from Allard. Whether a real free enterprise constitutional Republican can win in Colorado or not I do not know. However it is very difficult to beat a real agenda with appeal with fuzz--Allard has a problem with the core constituency; they are drifting to the Libertarian. In these kinds of races, I personally tend to vote for the Libertarian because I think we are better off without the liberal R that votes with the Dems half the time and ultimately pulls a Jefford on you--but here, hard core types in Colorado have to recognize that by pulling the L handle, they may be handing the Senate back to Daschle. Usually, a lot of the third party vote comes back in the polling booth but in the Colorado race, it looks like a large enough margin that may not have the result you would hope for.

As to Georgia, Lousiana, and we hope Minnessota, (as well as South Dakota and Missouri where except for the risk of successful fraud, the races are probably over) it looks like the trend is going in favor of the Republican (or at least sufficiently against Mary to put her in a run-off she is likely to lose in La) and it is certainly fair to hope that we may pull enough of these out to gain control.

46 posted on 11/05/2002 8:14:02 AM PST by David
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To: pollster
Isn't Texas in the bank?

There are problems already in Texas with over 100,000 early ballots in San Antonio, because the ballot wasn't legally approved. They may get tossed. Texas could become Florida. I don't even know if these 100,000 votes will be counted tonight. If the margin of victory is under 100k... Texas will be a big old mess. Kirk has surged to a couple points in Texas. Tonight is going to be interesting.

47 posted on 11/05/2002 8:15:23 AM PST by dogbyte12
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To: pollster
IF WE WIN GEORGIA AND CO. WE WILL TAKE BACK THE SENATE!

Agreed, from your mouth to God's ears. If we lose though, personally I'm blaming Tim Hutchinson.

48 posted on 11/05/2002 8:26:10 AM PST by jpl
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To: David
I've seen Colorado trending ahead to our side this weekend and I'm sticking to a razor thin win there.

Georgia is an absolute dead heat 47-47

49 posted on 11/05/2002 8:29:48 AM PST by pollster
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To: jpl
Of course we could pick up Minnesota as well, but I haven't seen any numbers since the weekend. (all still within margin of error)
50 posted on 11/05/2002 8:31:56 AM PST by pollster
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