FINAL ZOGBY 'SPECIAL SAUCE' NUMBERS (Polling at 9PM last night)

Zogby America/MSNBC /Newseek ^ | November 4, 2002 | John Zogby

[pollster]

FINAL ZOGBY NUMBERS (two sets of figures, first is factoring in leaners and eliminating undecideds 'special sauce', second set is raw data)

SD SENATE THUNE (R) OVER JOHNSON (D) 52-47 (48-44)

TEXAS SENATE CORNYN (R) OVER KIRK (D) 50-46 (46-42)

NC SENATE DOLE (R) OVER BOWLES (D) 53-43 (46-39)

MN SENATE MONDALE (R) OVER COLEMAN (D) 51-45 (49-44)

GA SENATE CLELAND (D) OVER CHAMBLISS (R) 50-48 (46-44)

CO SENATE STRICKLAND (D) OVER ALLARD (R) 51-46 (49-44)

AR SENATE PRYOR (D) OVER HUTCHINSON (R) 56-43 (50-41)

[pollster]

I read that thread and the final count was not on there.

[Former_russian]

Osama Zogby was everywhere last night but I was shocked by what he had said on Kudlow and Cramer on CNBC. Paraphrazing: 'I give Rove a lot of credit for perfectly timing the Iraq issue'. Even if true (which it is not) the polster has no business of opinionating this way. IMHO of course.

[BillCompton]

This is what I think.


Senate
Democrat Seats

Toss-up	Lose	Win
MN	SD	MT
GA	MO	IA
		IL
		MI
		LA
		WV
		NJ
		RI
		MA
		DE

Republican Seats

Toss-up	Lose	Win
CO	AR	TX
NH		TN
		NC
		SC
		OR
		ID
		WY
		NM
		NE
		KS
		OK
		MS
		AL
		KY
		MS
		AL
		KY
		VA
		ME
		AK

[Dems_R_Losers]

No numbers on Sununu/Shaheen or Talent/Carnahan? If GOP wins both of these plus Thune over Johnson, and eventually beat Landrieu in the runoff, it won't matter if Hutchinson and Allard lose. I thought Zogby was polling for Sununu's campaign.

Scott Rasmussen told Sean Hannity last night that he had just polled in Colorado and thought Allard would pull it out. He thought the Senate would come down to Georgia and possibly to the runoff in Louisiana.

[pollster]

I think New Hampshire is trending our way and Minnesota is going the Democrats way.

That leaves Georgia to decide the shooting match whether there will be no change or the GOP takes back the Senate.

[BlackRazor]

I read that thread and the final count was not on there.

What do you mean? All the numbers you've listed are there on the original thread.

[pollster]

Rasmussen is dead on every poll in New Hampshire has us pulling it out! And Colorado is a toss up despite what Zogby says..

[pollster]

Those were the old numbers, not the raw ones from last night.

[commish]

Zogby stated last night on Laura Ingraham that while he could not release a public poll since he was polling for the Sununu campaign, that his numbers showed Sununu winning. Also said Talent will win MO by 5 pts.

[Solson]

No way Mondale wins this one IMO...no way.

[Russ]

Just like the people who forcast the weather, if Zogby is wrong he won't be held accountable and will be pontificating as an "expert" on all the shows in the next election.

I prefer to just wait and see...

[BlackRazor]

Those were the old numbers, not the raw ones from last night.

Nope. Maybe you should re-read it. They were posted by a Zogby subscriber the moment he got the numbers in, just before midnight. The numbers are the same ones you've posted.

[pollster]

I must have missed the post. I tried to read the responses on the thread and didn't get any numbers

[BlackRazor]

I must have missed the post. I tried to read the responses on the thread and didn't get any numbers

They weren't in a post. They were in the original body of the main thread.

[Living_the_life_of_Dilbert]

Am i the only one who gets sea sick from reading Zogby poll results.. they seem to go up.. and down.. left and right... *Face turns green*.. *gulp*. *reaches for barf bag*

[The Vast Right Wing]

It's kinda funny, I think Zogby redid his poll to more closely conform with all the other polls showing movement in the Republican direction. Every poll that came out over the weekend showed strong movement in the Republican direction, but Zogby showed most senate races breaking Democrat. I'm very suspicous that he is just jumbling the numbers so his final poll won't look so bad in retrospect, trying to save his reputation.

[pollster]

The results you are referring to (in the original post) is the polling from Nov 2. not from last night

[pollster]

And he is putting out big margins for error as well.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Arkansas is over. Pryor won this race a long time ago.

Many voters in Arkansas think he cheated on his wife with a worker (the one he married)-- something that is not established as fact.

[BlackRazor]

The results you are referring to (in the original post) is the polling from Nov 2. not from last night

They are three-day tracking averages from Nov. 2-4. Look at the numbers for every poll. They are all exactly the same as the numbers you posted.