The Winning Strategy to Defeat Mary Landrieu (Election still runs hot in Louisiana)

The Washington Times ^ | November 10, 2002 | Hugh Aynesworth

[elenchus]

NEW ORLEANS

[deport]

Based upon the following Parish results it looks like a win is doable if the vote can be countered
in a few Parishes that seem to be strong for Landrieu... It will be interesting to see the strategy
as it developes...

Parish Results

Parish	Raymond Brown	John Cooksey	Mary Landrieu	Patrick E. "Live Wire" Landry	James Lemann	"Tony" Perkins	Gary D. Robbins	Ernest Edward Skillman, Jr.	Suzanne Haik Terrell
Acadia, 65 of 65	358	2,516	6,991	67	19	2,001	26	29	4,619
Allen, 34 of 34	216	880	2,637	120	49	813	40	11	1,133
Ascension, 59 of 59	347	1,627	10,547	104	44	3,930	24	53	6,973
Assumption, 23 of 23	185	423	4,097	155	45	704	27	14	1,704
Avoyelles, 51 of 51	277	3,158	4,721	202	110	611	48	22	1,512
Beauregard, 47 of 47	198	1,258	2,692	118	32	1,958	17	13	1,919
Bienville, 29 of 29	131	838	2,573	101	40	283	17	8	1,086
Bossier, 55 of 55	384	4,580	10,871	227	61	2,307	41	18	8,504
Caddo, 152 of 152	1,900	8,830	36,767	253	83	4,255	79	82	18,045
Calcasieu, 110 of 110	1,665	4,635	24,073	251	82	8,917	107	70	13,126
Caldwell, 20 of 20	60	1,922	1,206	46	34	206	5	2	595
Cameron, 15 of 15	146	368	1,417	50	21	367	11	9	792
Catahoula, 34 of 34	144	1,772	1,898	87	54	220	34	10	505
Claiborne, 37 of 37	71	863	1,945	81	21	262	13	3	968
Concordia, 23 of 23	231	2,624	2,795	99	44	332	17	14	688
DeSoto, 46 of 46	154	971	3,642	105	16	415	17	13	1,747
East Baton Rouge, 298 of 298	1,863	8,606	55,609	298	105	21,186	117	86	34,421
East Carroll, 19 of 19	115	659	1,250	53	30	109	19	9	281
East Feliciana, 22 of 22	165	517	3,605	36	9	1,333	11	12	1,552
Evangeline, 61 of 61	264	2,242	3,971	185	97	728	43	19	2,144
Franklin, 33 of 33	120	2,211	2,134	69	59	427	22	6	1,246
Grant, 23 of 23	117	1,901	1,537	82	35	488	19	5	774
Iberia, 55 of 55	413	2,412	6,528	297	86	2,269	66	23	5,750
Iberville, 44 of 44	379	675	6,676	248	67	1,103	71	32	2,462
Jackson, 27 of 27	126	1,823	2,275	93	50	357	24	7	1,095
Jefferson, 261 of 261	1,092	11,647	48,207	396	118	7,199	129	120	47,291
Jefferson Davis, 45 of 45	228	1,070	3,397	105	45	1,174	21	10	2,118
Lafayette, 111 of 111	814	8,525	19,945	397	218	7,596	109	65	17,297
Lafourche, 66 of 66	405	1,957	11,621	283	126	1,992	57	29	7,400
LaSalle, 29 of 29	63	2,906	993	57	49	164	24	2	459
Lincoln, 45 of 45	173	3,569	4,786	121	42	986	21	10	2,373
Livingston, 53 of 53	467	2,564	8,801	237	78	6,775	44	24	8,591
Madison, 25 of 25	132	969	1,511	72	31	188	9	5	547
Morehouse, 32 of 32	150	3,040	3,251	106	74	543	37	8	1,369
Natchitoches, 54 of 54	222	1,784	4,945	146	55	931	21	10	2,145
Orleans, 442 of 442	2,468	4,469	94,811	480	218	2,455	166	138	21,170
Ouachita, 79 of 79	396	15,745	14,139	334	174	3,236	57	23	7,784
Plaquemines, 25 of 25	224	581	4,711	79	21	423	18	38	3,466
Pointe Coupee, 24 of 24	138	625	4,099	222	33	912	29	7	1,660
Rapides, 106 of 106	641	12,295	14,667	515	205	3,105	112	37	5,997
Red River, 20 of 20	114	387	1,926	105	28	231	21	14	749
Richland, 23 of 23	114	2,081	2,315	90	34	385	18	5	1,380
Sabine, 42 of 42	201	1,641	1,983	83	42	526	19	15	1,061
St. Bernard, 41 of 41	210	1,285	7,792	105	33	913	22	16	7,430
St. Charles, 46 of 46	208	1,505	6,034	168	42	823	31	19	5,187
St. Helena, 15 of 15	118	384	2,228	141	23	423	25	13	683
St. James, 28 of 28	227	461	5,035	174	27	563	31	12	1,799
St. John the Baptist, 36 of 36	213	607	5,892	324	57	1,095	34	12	3,063
St. Landry, 85 of 85	735	2,600	12,622	123	67	1,525	49	49	6,392
St. Martin, 47 of 47	340	1,764	6,075	270	79	1,560	36	27	3,405
St. Mary, 62 of 62	372	1,906	6,430	227	60	1,407	46	27	3,813
St. Tammany, 131 of 131	423	7,196	17,444	155	58	5,648	65	62	26,955
Tangipahoa, 80 of 80	448	2,533	10,448	138	50	2,354	43	90	8,284
Tensas, 27 of 27	43	568	913	40	19	127	3	2	351
Terrebonne, 103 of 103	506	2,239	10,833	283	83	2,176	56	44	8,157
Union, 46 of 46	122	2,810	2,263	67	44	414	11	5	1,290
Vermilion, 62 of 62	298	2,356	6,461	116	58	1,478	19	12	3,969
Vernon, 54 of 54	322	2,177	4,118	197	60	1,222	28	29	1,625
Washington, 54 of 54	281	1,316	5,391	242	84	890	42	25	3,047
Webster, 43 of 43	230	1,778	6,425	171	41	885	20	69	3,372
West Baton Rouge, 19 of 19	149	405	3,541	29	2	829	8	3	1,892
West Carroll, 18 of 18	51	1,441	889	49	46	180	7	6	656
West Feliciana, 22 of 22	88	469	2,061	116	17	594	8	7	1,003
Winn, 29 of 29	95	1,786	1,887	54	32	268	12	9	636

[elenchus]

Has anyone compiled cumulative numbers for all Republican/conservative candidates, and what can be reasonably expected? From your table, I cannot tell which will be backing Terrell.

I'd appreciate whatever link anyone can provide.

[deport]

There were two Democrats... Landrieu and Brown,
three independents... Landry, Lemman, Robbins
Four Republicans... Terrell, Cooksey, Perkins, Skillman

U. S. Senator 3,912 of 3,912 precincts reporting Click here for Results by Parish
23,550	2%	Raymond Brown	-
171,752	14%	John Cooksey	-
573,347	46%	Mary Landrieu	-
10,444	1%	Patrick E. "Live Wire" Landry	-
3,866	0%	James Lemann	-
119,776	10%	"Tony" Perkins	-
2,423	0%	Gary D. Robbins	-
1,668	0%	Ernest Edward Skillman, Jr.	-
339,507	27%	Suzanne Haik Terrell	-

[deport]

Another take on the race from this article.........

[excerpt]

BATON ROUGE - Louisiana Democrats have a longstanding formula for winning a statewide race: get 95 percent of the black vote and 30 percent of the white vote, and you're in.

But the only way that formula works is if Democrats can get high-profile black leaders to use their organizations to get black voters to the polls on behalf of their candidates.

That did not happen in Tuesday's U.S. Senate primary election and will be a key issue for U.S. Sen. Mary Landrieu to address if she hopes to retain her seat in the Dec. 7 runoff.

"If Mary had gotten the African-American vote that (U.S. Rep.) Chris John got, she would have won," said U.S. Sen. John Breaux, also a Democrat, in a post-election analysis.

To win in the runoff, Landrieu must meet with those black leaders who were lukewarm to her in the primary, Breaux said, specifically mentioning state Sens. Cleo Fields,

D-Baton Rouge, Greg Tarver, D-Shreveport, and Don Cravins, D-Lafayette.

Fields, who ran against Landrieu and beat her early in the 1993 governor's race, did nothing in the primary, and at this point says he's not sure what he will do with his organization in the runoff. "I don't know if I will be up and running on election day," Fields said.

His beef is that Landrieu and white Democrats in general "take the black vote for granted," Fields said. He also was turned off by Landrieu's running commercials talking about her support for Republican President George Bush.

[elenchus]

This is AMAZING!

According to the vote totals you provided above for Republicans:

14% John Cooksey
10% "Tony" Perkins
27% Suzanne Haik Terrell

the Republican votes total over 50% !!!!!

Every Republican and Conservative needs to get the information that this race is eminently winnable. I hope someone will make sure that this information gets to the press services and the Terrell campaign--and out to the public. I suspect that very few people know about these numbers.

Everyone send your contributions...the most you can! Time is short, so act now!

[Bogey78O]

How can you play political hardball with a man who has no desire to be in office in just over a year. He's done with public life as far as he's concerned. He doesn't care what threats are made.

[Bogey78O]

Having checked it LAndrieu really only took 18 parishes. The rest were Republican

[Bogey78O]

Coksey's throwing a temper tantrum and he's no longer for Terrell because someone launched an attack on him just before the election and for some reason with no proof he thinks Terrell was behind it.

[deport]

I hope someone will make sure that this information gets to the press services and the Terrell campaign--and out to the public. I suspect that very few people know about these numbers.

LOL... you can bet the campaigns in LA know what these numbers are. They aren't stupid or unaware of the situation. The major factor/key will be turnout and from what groups the turnout derives.

[kms61]

That's not an unreasonable assumption on Cooksey's part. She was the one who stood to benefit.

[deport]

I haven't checked it that way but I don't think she won 18 parishes when you combine all the Republican vote versus hers, did she?

[Bogey78O]

Landrieu only took the majority in about 18 parishes. The rest went Republican. Check it.

[Brices Crossroads]

"the key...will be turnout"

You are right. The thing that bothers me is that Terrell has no turnout operation that I am aware of. She did not even have an office in New Orleans in the primary. In 1996, when he narrowly missed defeating Landrieu, Woody Jenkins had a huge phone bank in New Orleans which turned out a great vote both in the primary and in the general election. As far as I know, none of the veterans of this GOTV effort have been approached by the Terrell campaign to replicate the effort for her. I think it is absolutely essential to offset the shenanigans by Foster and Cooksey. I wish they would make this move and quit worrying about these endorsements.

[Bogey78O]

Not really. The flyers were saying he was a closet Dem. An excellent strategy if you simply want to suppress turnout in areas he's strong in.

[deport]

Maybe Terrell will allow the NRC or some others to bring in support even if it is below the radar screen to help in this effort. I suspect turnout may not have been the big thing during the Nov. 5 race but rather just trying to hold on and get better name recognition. I suspect they knew that they couldn't win outright and were hoping for enough supporters of the other candidates to come out and force it to a runoff.

I'm not sure how national help/efforts will play this time. I'm sure some will help but then too much may turn off the voters. I suspect the voters don't want to feel like they are being exploited by either side.

[Brices Crossroads]

There is so little time for a national group to try to set up a phone bank operation. They do not really know Louisiana that well. If I were her, I would try to resurrect the old operation that almost did it for Jenkins and count on lower turnout and the presence of the President to make her invincible. I just don't think the national party can put together a ground operation in Louisiana, especially on short notice. Anyway, whatever Terrell decides, good luck to her!

[Gunder]

Another article, which appeared in Sunday's New Orlean's paper.

http://www.nola.com/news/ataglance/t-p/nov10.ssf?/nov10/lasenate10.html

[Wphile]

Republican Gov. Mike Foster on Thursday refused to support the Republican challenger in her bid to unseat Mrs. Landrieu. Also, Republican Rep. John Cooksey, who finished third with 14 percent in Tuesday's election, has said he will not provide assistance to Mrs. Terrell's campaign.

What a bunch of babies. I swear, politicians are such pigs.

[Gunder]

Yeah, we've got some real pricks in our party, no doubt about it.

[TheErnFormerlyKnownAsBig]

One fact that favors us in this runoff is the fact that the election, being held on Saturday December 7

Most of the Democrat base will be too hungover on a sat. to get out and vote.