Zogby: The New Real Majority (Plus a free report)

As a fan of politics nothing could be more exciting than seeing the unexpected occur again and again. But as a political pollster, whose reputation is impacted seemingly by every race polled and every percentage point reflected, Election Night was cause for much more grimacing than we at Zogby International have been used to over the last several years.

For the 2002 Midterm Elections, we did have our usual on-target projections that most other polling firms missed – Florida, North Carolina, Arkansas, New Jersey and Missouri. (MY NOTE: WHICH POLLSTER MISSED, Fla., NC or NJ) On the other hand, we had some races which surprised even us-Colorado, Illinois, and Georgia. In a world where hang-ups, cell phones and increasingly lower response rates add to the difficulty of accurately measuring just “what Americans really think,” the fact that all of us in the polling industry do as well as we do is really a tribute.

We at Zogby International will continue to strive to offer the most accurate opinion research available throughout the entire polling industry. We at Zogby International will strive to produce the best products and services available in the market today. And we at Zogby International will continue to strive to provide you with the best source of public opinion polling information anywhere.

As for this year's election, we were just …okay. Which for us, is not good enough.

I would like to take this opportunity to offer you, with my compliments, the second installment of the Zogby-White Election Report: The New Real Majority. This is a brilliant 52-page detailed report with comprehensive footnotes and unique analysis brought to you by: John Zogby, President and CEO of Zogby International & John Kenneth White, Professor of Politics at the Catholic University of America and author of The Values Divide: American Politics and Culture in Transition.

Step 1. From our home page http://www.zogby.com
Step 2. Go to SUBSCRIBERS LOGIN:
https://interactive.zogby.com/clickon/index2.dbm
Step 3. At the Zogby login page enter in your username:
RlMajor
Step 4. At the Zogby login page enter in your password:
RlMajor
Step 5. Click submit
Step 6. Enjoy our Zogby-White Election Report: The New
Real Majority.

"Thank you for your participation, your comments and most importantly, your love for politics."

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CONTACT US
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Chad Bohnert, E-Commerce Webmaster
chad@zogby.com

Main Offices:
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Utica, NY 13501
(315) 624-0200 or 1-877-GO-2-POLL
(315) 624-0210 Fax

Who knows? If you download his report you still won't know. I've skimmed it and it's clear he doesn't know, either.

Here's the conclusion of his paper, for what it's worth.

As the preceding tables indicate, the country still remains divided. However, it is important to point out that George W. Bush has won an historic victory. He has an opportunity to build and transform the nation's political landscape. In many respects, George W. Bush was elected president not in 2000, but in 2002. His administration, which really began on September 11^th, has now received a decisive electoral mandate. How voters will judge him two years from now (and possibly beyond) is uncertain. Important successes can be achieved, but the pitfalls also are clear. The outcome of a likely war with Iraq's Saddam Hussein remains in doubt. Substantive legislative accomplishments-including creation of a patients bill of rights and prescription drug coverage for seniors is a must. The economy remains relatively flaccid, and doubts about corporate responsibility persist.
It is also important to remember that in the latter half of the 20^th century history has become incredibly compressed. Harry Truman's 1948 triumph was followed by substantial losses in the 1950 midterm elections; Dwight Eisenhower's 1952 landslide and Republican control of Congress was negated two years later by a Democratic takeover of both houses; Lyndon B. Johnson's mammoth 1964 victory over Republican Barry Goldwater was eroded by big Republican gains in 1966; Ronald Reagan's 1980 landslide and resultant defacto control of Congress ended with Democratic gains in 1982; the Republican landslide of 1994 was followed by Clinton's win two years later (recall that in 1994 Clinton was considered by many as a lame duck, one-term president). Yet, history notwithstanding, the opportunity is present to make George W. Bush the William McKinley of his day by renewing the Republican coalition-not only by successfully winning the war on terrorism, but by reinvigorating the party's domestic agenda. If Bush succeeds, he will be able to bridge the values divide that still persists-even in the afterglow of victory.
For Democrats, it is also clear that their losses cannot be explained away as part of the "George W. Bush phenomena" or a tactical GOP victory. The party has both a message and values problem. The Democratic message is tentative and unclear. Intra-party wrangling will help to sort out the problems. Unlike the 1980s, when Democrats blamed Ronald Reagan's popularity for their troubles, it is clear that more than a president's popularity is hurting the Democrats. Republicans will always be Republicans in the sense that they will continue to espouse the values freedom and individualism. Democrats need to be Democrats, especially in trumpeting the values of equality of opportunity and tolerance. The first value is especially important and must be an essential part of the party's foreign and domestic agenda. At the same time, Democrats cannot sit on one side of the values divide. They must appeal to the Scammon and Wattenberg real majority. Al Gore is already sensing this problem by co-authoring a book with his wife, Tipper, on the American family. Traditional families of the 1950s and 1960s must be made to feel that they are welcome inside the Democratic tent. Meanwhile, as Democrats attempt to rehabilitate their values image, party elites must decide which issues they will enjoin the Bush Republicans and make their stand much as Barry Goldwater did for the Republicans in the 1960s.
In the past two midterm elections, 1998 and 2002 history was made. Four years ago, Bill Clinton's party won House seats as the Republicans overreached in prosecuting the Lewinsky scandals. Republicans must be careful not to overreach this time, and they may do so by going to war with Iraq without the same kind of firm public support that there was when the war against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban commenced. Thus, whether the word "realignment" or "anomaly" best describes this election result remains unclear. Time will tell.

Thanks.

There's no doubt that we're in historic times. First time in my life that we've seen a Republican in the White House and both houses of Congress controlled by Republicans. But Zogby's ramblings reveal his leftist leanings and the fact that he is stunned by the election results.

The Democratic message is tentative and unclear.

Zogby's wrong. The 'Rat message of unpatriotism was crystal clear. No Republican, no Independent, and even a lot of 'Rats didn't like it.

Republicans will always be Republicans in the sense that they will continue to espouse the values freedom and individualism.

Makes you feel dirty and evil, doesn't it?

Democrats need to be Democrats, especially in trumpeting the values of equality of opportunity and tolerance.

I'd love to see more of this. What the 'Rats offer under the guise of equality is inequality--flagrant benefits to their constituency for nothing more than votes and continued 'Rat power. The fundamental flaw with this approach is that it undermines the country, and parasites who feed off their host too aggressively have low Darwinian fitness.

Al Gore is...co-authoring a book with his wife, Tipper, on the American family. Traditional families of the 1950s and 1960s must be made to feel that they are welcome inside the Democratic tent.

This book ought to be a joke. Traditional families are meant to feel like lepers by the 'Rats.

Four years ago, Bill Clinton's party won House seats as the Republicans overreached in prosecuting the Lewinsky scandals.

Enforcing the law is overreaching? Zogby's a lefty, Zogby's a lefty! I know one Republican Senator in the Peoples' Republic who, two years ago, lost his seat because he underreached in prosecuting The 'Toon's scandals.

Republicans must be careful not to overreach this time, and they may do so by going to war with Iraq without the same kind of firm public support that there was when the war against Osama bin Laden and the Taliban commenced.

Jiminy Crickett! There's been firm public support to snuff Sadam for one heck of a long time.

I think the biggest risk the Republicans face is for the 'Rats to wake up and act semi-responsibly sometime prior to October 2004. The 'Rats are masters of the big lie, but the big lie, used over and over again for more than a year now against Bush, didn't pay off. Can they find new topics to lie about? Bush has been proactive in taking their topics away from them. To the annoyance of us conservatives, but, I assume, to the ultimate pleasure of most of us now seeing the election results.

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