Louisiana Election Turnout Thread- Here come the results

C-SPAN ^ | Dec. 6, 2002 | Brian Lamme

[dadwags]

Jefferson Parish chose Terrell .

[Recovering_Democrat]

Could the following be an explanation to the Republican loss yesterday?:

OVERKILL.

Perhaps our party wanted it so bad we just tried too much--too hard, and maybe the undecided got a bit tired of it.

I don't discount the negativity of the campaign, either, though I think Terrell was right on the money to point out Landrieu's liberalism.

I am amazed Louisiana elected a liberal with an 85 rating from the ADA.

[Johnny Shear]

Got the hots for Mary Landrover?

Naaaaa....She's a dog too.

[Johnny Shear]

I think Mrs. Terrell is attractive

Let me guess...You mean "Attractive on the inside"? Because she's a hag and you know it. You can lie to me but you can't lie to yourself.

And I know Johnny is a jackass.

You don't know that. You don't know anything about me...Other than I speak the truth about Ms Turrell, that is.

[marajade]

Obviously not in Louisiana... heck they can't even keep them on ranch there...

[AndrewC]

From what I can see, Jefferson and St Landry did Terrell in.

I analyzed the results from the 96 election and compared those results with the numbers from Saturday. Overall, about one-half million less people voted in this election than the one in 1996. That was a presidential election year so that decrease would not be unexpected, however, the Republican challenger was Dole. The following table shows the results. The numbers in the loss columns are the 96 value minus the 02 value for the party's candidate, of course, the Democrat candidate is the same. The difference column is the Rep loss minus the Dem loss. Notice that Landrieu lost lots of votes in Orleans, but bled less than Terrell just about everywhere else. Terrell did not get the votes in Jefferson. A further illustration of this is that Landrieu picked up 10,969 votes in Orleans(80% for her) compared to the primary but she also picked up 7,878 votes in Jefferson(44% for her). The numbers give a so what picture to the Republican effort.

	R LOSS	D LOSS	DIFF
Acadia	4,657	2,777	1,880
Allen	1,828	1,154	674
Ascension	2,723	2,093	630
Assumption	1,901	61	1,840
Avoyelles	2,599	1,521	1,078
Beauregard	2,359	1,519	840
Bienville	958	709	249
Bossier	4,247	4,225	22
Caddo	8,999	11,290	2,291
Calcasieu	11,622	8,674	2,948
Caldwell	878	556	322
Cameron	817	513	304
Catahoula	1,249	648	601
Claiborne	994	664	330
Concordia	1,576	1,267	309
DeSoto	1,111	1,076	35
East Baton Rouge	21,124	17,245	3,879
East Carroll	514	505	9
East Feliciana	807	585	222
Evangeline	3,219	1,322	1,897
Franklin	1,868	934	934
Grant	1,470	1,087	383
Iberia	6,233	3,777	2,456
Iberville	2,308	680	1,628
Jackson	996	327	669
Jefferson	32,225	20,189	12,036
Jefferson Davis	2,634	1,574	1,060
Lafayette	11,622	9,162	2,460
Lafourche	5,922	3,791	2,131
LaSalle	1,657	743	914
Lincoln	1,286	2,292	1,006
Livingston	4,367	3,080	1,287
Madison	664	912	248
Morehouse	2,412	1,619	793
Natchitoches	2,144	2,581	437
Orleans	15,775	37,270	21,495
Ouachita	7,991	6,982	1,009
Plaquemines	1,297	752	545
Pointe Coupee	1,748	806	942
Rapides	8,308	7,839	469
Red River	461	240	221
Richland	1,301	916	385
Sabine	1,161	1,536	375
St. Bernard	5,091	2,632	2,459
St. Charles	2,854	2,832	22
St. Helena	841	563	278
St. James	1,248	345	903
St. John the Baptist	1,877	926	951
St. Landry	6,762	3,024	3,738
St. Martin	3,538	2,057	1,481
St. Mary	4,223	4,069	154
St. Tammany	5,158	5,145	13
Tangipahoa	-915	558	1,473
Tensas	387	305	82
Terrebonne	6,234	5,284	950
Union	1,091	1,123	32
Vermilion	3,693	3,484	209
Vernon	2,064	2,161	97
Washington	3,308	2,373	935
Webster	2,274	2,404	130
West Baton Rouge	1,294	717	577
West Carroll	857	464	393
West Feliciana	329	251	78
Winn	1,624	1,376	248
			34,278

[Theodore R.]

Excellent analysis, AndrewC. I bet the guys at Hot Line didn't think to do this in their report. After looking over the parish totals again, it really seemed that Terrell was weaker than the 40,000-vote loss. And it surely seemed that turnout was less in Republican areas than in Democrat areas. I think these results also bode very poorly for the GOP in the 2003 governor's race. Already, Lt. Gov. Kathleen Blanco seems to have a large early lead, based probably on name ID. The main Republican candidate seems to be State Sen. Ken Hollis. I have no idea if he could be competitive at this stage. It looks like the legacy of LA without the Longs continues: Democrat as ever. Also, I think if one of the Republican House seats (except for Vitter's) opened up, any would be ripe for a Democrat takeover.

[gbunch]

Saint Bernard Parish chose Terrell. That is very good news to me personally.

Same here! I'm proud to say that Terrell's St. Bernard votes included those of myself and my significant other!

[gop_gene]

In light of the unfortunate losses, this reaffirms in my mind that what Louisiana is to the gop's stronghold in the south, New Hampshire is to democrat's domination of the northeast--a tough nut to crack.

[gop_gene]

The margin of victory means nothing. The only % that matters is the split in the Senate. If there are no RINO jumpers, then fine. All it will take is one or two more Jeffords to screw us again.

If I'm not mistaken, TomPaine is trying to "persuade" Chaffee, Snowe and Specter to switch either to independent or democrat. I'm not too worried and if it happens, it may very well turn out to be the democrat's curse as they can be blamed for obstructionism as they were after Jefford's jump. Chaffee reportedly is not going to switch (but who knows with that wishy-washy RINO, he might change his mind) cause he's happy he's been treated well by his frightened gop colleagues. Like you said, two or more have to switch and they wouldn't get the full spotlight like Jeffords, they'd have to share it, boo hoo. Anyhow, I think they might be afraid to switch cause 2 years from now the senate could go back to gop and they'd be back in the minority like poor Jim. And another thing, since they're promoting it, I guess TomPaine wouldn't have a problem then with the gop trying to poach some democrat senators.

[AndrewC]

Well, I seem to be alone in this regard. Rush is now attributing the Demo victory to turnout in Orleans. I don't see that.

[deport]

I don't see that Orleans was the big factor either. Mary picked up votes but a net of 5,259. Statewide the turnout was a plus 319 votes in the senate race but a net reduction of some 66,000+ votes in the CD race.

  
300,635  Orleans Parish registered

Orleans Parish  
12/7/02  (44.1%)
Landrieu  105,780  78,900
Terrell    26,880
Total     132,660
			5,259
11/5/02  (42.0%)
Landrieu   94,811   73,641
Terrell    21,170
Others     10,394
Total     126,375

[Vis Numar]

"I don't see that Orleans was the big factor either."

It's right there, from 42% to 44%, you wouldn't expect it to grow, but to shrink, like the other parish results. The fall off in the others, was voters who didn't choose Terrell the first time out, and didn't vote the second time out, which left Landrieu's voters, who voted twice, as more of a percentage.