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To: imawit
"Okay. I agree that what the Fed is doing is not making it happen, inflation. But where is all of this additional money going ? We do see it in the housing bubble but I would caution to quess that this one market is not going to suck up all of the newly available money. So what is ?"

Direct answer is very simple--bank reserves; maybe to a lesser degree bonds, bond funds, and money markets--which is why (in the case of bonds and funds) long bond interest rates are going down--people are buying them.

There really isn't much additional money.

Further, my own view of the data is that personal use real estate financings are not going up a lot either. Purchase and sale financing is off because sales are also off; refi's are down because that market got saturated--everybody who was going to refi did it. If rates went down further, you might see more refi's but the cash out equity people have by and large stopped.

The retail season will end in the tank; the stocks are headed for the tank; just about everything is going to roll over in Q1 of 2003.

52 posted on 12/10/2002 11:06:05 AM PST by David
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To: David
"Where is the money going ?"

Direct answer is very simple--bank reserves; maybe to a lesser degree bonds, bond funds, and money markets--which is why (in the case of bonds and funds) long bond interest rates are going down--people are buying them.

Okay, a good reason for the Fed's inflation plan to not work. All this excess money is not going into commerce.

Nother subject. Right now the refi & fi business is not subsiding in the least. Last week had all time highs in payoffs for refi and purchases of existing homes. And this info comes directly from the mortgage banks cashier. Not to say it won't subside later (January) but December is traditionally the best month of the year for mortgage payoffs/refis. And this December is heading towards an all time record. I'll keep you posted on any changes.

53 posted on 12/10/2002 11:30:11 AM PST by imawit
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