[B.Bumbleberry]

All of these efforts rely on the false assumption that the future can be predicted by examining the past, and the erroneous belief that complicated mathmatical models can bring certainty to something that is inherently uncertain--the future economic decisions of millions of people. The study of future markets is behavioural science, not mathmatical science. So yes, a physicist can predict economic trends as accurately as an economist, which is to say, neither can.

[Keith]

yes...these idiots are so good at driving by looking in the rearview mirror.

This makes me certain a "crash" like these guys are talking about are much less likely.

[Tauzero]

"All of these efforts rely on the false assumption that the future can be predicted by examining the past"

Actually, this particular effort is based on three true ideas: (1) in finance there is nothing new under the sun, (2) most investors are impulsive and arational, and (3) human nature has not changed in thousands of years.

"the erroneous belief that complicated mathmatical models can bring certainty to something that is inherently uncertain--the future economic decisions of millions of people"

False charge. He doesn't claim certainty. No honest person examining the problem ever would.

"The study of future markets is behavioural science, not mathmatical science."

Aren't many behaviors, including investing behavior, quantifiable?