[Tauzero]

"All of these efforts rely on the false assumption that the future can be predicted by examining the past"

Actually, this particular effort is based on three true ideas: (1) in finance there is nothing new under the sun, (2) most investors are impulsive and arational, and (3) human nature has not changed in thousands of years.

"the erroneous belief that complicated mathmatical models can bring certainty to something that is inherently uncertain--the future economic decisions of millions of people"

False charge. He doesn't claim certainty. No honest person examining the problem ever would.

"The study of future markets is behavioural science, not mathmatical science."

Aren't many behaviors, including investing behavior, quantifiable?

[B.Bumbleberry]

I guess I don't see your point. The problem is with the idea that you can forecast economic results. How does the idea that people are irrational provide support. I thought that was part of the point I was making: that it is predictable that people will be unpredictable.