Venezuela marches continue as street conflicts persist

Associated Press ^ | January 10, 2003

[Dog Gone]

CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) --Opponents of President Hugo Chavez blamed the embattled leader for attacks on opposition-led marches but vowed to take to the streets again Friday.

"It's the leader of the country who is provoking this violence," said Carlos Ortega, president of the Confederation of Venezuelan Workers, the nation's largest trade union.

[swarthyguy]

I've not seen anything that guesstimates Chavez's support in the military. He must have some. Seems to me he must have significant support there otherwise some kind of a velvet people's coup would've taken place by now. He even went to Brazil and nothing happened.

It almost did last summer/fall. But faltered.

One expects to hear fullblown civil war has broken out after all this simmering.

[Dog Gone]

There hasn't been a whole lot of discussion about it. Chavez fired most of the outspoken officers who oppose him, and one might expect the lowest levels of the armed forces to support him as well.

Officially, the army is staying neutral in the dispute, but Chavez surely recognizes the threat and has done everything he can to minimize it. It would be very optimistic to think that the entire army would turn against him.

[MonroeDNA]

It only takes one.

[swarthyguy]

>>It would be very optimistic to think that the entire army would turn against him.

Well, they used to pretty well from the 50's onward all around the world when the US wanted it.

Perhaps a joint Greco-Turkish-Pakistani delegation of retired generals or serving who've overthrown governments might be in order.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

http://www.freerepublic.com/perl/bump-list

[Dog Gone]

I would be rather surprised if we aren't talking to some officers about launching a coup. But this time, it would be with US backing, and it wouldn't fail.

But the timing has to be right. We would prefer for the Venezuelan political process to force Chavez from office without our fingerprints on it at all. At this point, I think we're still being patient.

[Mind-numbed Robot]

It surprises me that labor unions are opposing a Communists.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Hugo Chavez - Venezuela

Hundreds of Venezuelans stand in line to apply for a Spanish passport in Caracas January 10, 2003. A strike launched December 2, 2002 by opposition members of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez has battered Venezuela's oil-reliant economy, rattled global energy markets and fired up the political conflict between opponents and supporters of the leftist leader to resign and call elections. REUTERS/Kimberly White REUTERS

[shanec]

"It would be very optimistic to think that the entire army would turn against him."

Much of Chavez current restraint on not being more violent to bring this to an end, is his legitimate fear that that would have more of his military thus leaving him, too. Many within the ranks know if/when he uses them unconstitutionally, they have not only an excuse, but an obligation, not to follow his lead anymore.

As you know, the top Venezuela military officers that have voluntarily abandoned the Chavez regime over the last few months have banded together to publicly denounce his Cubanization of their beloved country. (They also have commitments from close to 22,000 more, still within Chavez ranks, awaiting a 'call to action' who, in the meantime, continue to feed intel out to their former commanding officers on the outside.)

They have been exposing the dirty secrets of his regime (at great risk personally) and have been the sparkplug that brought together all these different opposition groups under one unified tent. See their expose's here...

BTW, we could hope here in the USA for no better allies than the Venezuelan people. According to the just published 2002 Global Attitudes Survey by the Pew Research Center in Washington; 82% have a favorable opinion of the USA, and that is amongst the highest ratings of all the 44 countries surveyed. And, in regard to supporting the US led war on terrorism, 79% favor it while only 20% oppose it! (What's the current %'s for that question here in the USA today?!?)

-Shane

[Dog Gone]

How do you think this will end?

Would Chavez step down after an August referendum?

Can the strike succeed in forcing him out earlier?

Will there be a coup? Or will civil war break out?

[shanec]

I really don't know for sure how this'll all play out, the resolve of the opposition is very solid, but alot depends on US involvment. Not that we need covert or overt action by USG on the ground there, but we do need them and the media fully exposing here, for all the world to see, what all he's up to. Once widely known, that alone will have him as popular as Saddam, and he'll be heading for the exits, IMO.

My only fear is that the US will too eagerly embrace any short-term solution in Ven to assure some oil supply resumption and stability and not even examine & expose the Chavez regime material support for Saddam, Al Qaeda, Castro, Libya, N. Korea, China, Russia, drug trade and Columbian guerrillas, etc., etc.

The Chavez regime is a much greater threat to this hemisphere, security wise, than any short-term oil concerns. Of that, I'm convinced.

-Shane

[Dog Gone]

Sometime next week, the US is going to try to float a proposal to end the strike in exchange for early elections. Essentially, that's the opposition's position, and I don't know that it stands much chance of convincing Chavez.

But Washington is trying to line up the OAS to support the proposal as a diplomatic solution to the crisis. It's pretty clear that the US doesn't want a violent solution, if at all possible.