U.S. wants comprehensive nuclear deal with N. Korea - Armitage offers "no hostile intentions" letter

Kyodo News ^ | January 17, 2002

[HAL9000]

U.S. wants comprehensive nuclear deal with N. Korea

WASHINGTON, Jan. 17, Kyodo -

U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage said Friday that any new deal with North Korea on its nuclear programs should be comprehensive, covering its uranium-enrichment and plutonium-extracting capabilities as well as chemical and conventional weapons.

''Now we know that the North Koreans have been involved in a situation to also have highly enriched uranium, which is the other way to develop a nuclear weapon. So any new arrangements would have to capture all of those,'' Armitage told Japanese reporters.

''We are desirous of also having discussions with the North Koreans about the conventional military threat and the entire WMD (weapons of mass destruction) arsenal to include chemical weapons,'' he said.

The United States signed an agreement with North Korea in 1994 to cap Pyongyang's capability to extract weapons-grade plutonium from its nuclear reactors.

The pact, known as the Agreed Framework, virtually died with North Korea's admission in October of a secret program to enrich uranium for nuclear arms.

In an interview with the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said if North Korea agrees to abandon its nuclear ambitions, the U.S. still would need ''a new arrangement'' that would better constrain Pyongyang's ability to produce nuclear weapons.

This is the first time a senior U.S. government official has mentioned specifics in an envisaged new arrangement with North Korea.

On Pyongyang's repeated demand for a nonaggression pact, Armitage ruled out the possibility of a formal treaty. But he indicated it would be possible for the U.S. to provide a security guarantee to North Korea -- if it dismantles its nuclear weapons programs -- by exchanging letters or official statements.

''Now, there is no possibility that today any treaty of nonaggression would pass the Congress because many in Congress feel very badly, and understandably so, about what has happened in North Korea and the nullification of the Agreed Framework by the North Koreans,'' he said.

Armitage said the U.S. will assure North Korea, a country President George W. Bush branded as part of an ''axis of evil'' along with Iraq and Iran, that Washington has ''no hostile intentions'' toward Pyongyang.

''We believe that there is a way to document this, whether an exchange of letters or a statement, official statements or something like that,'' he said.

Armitage said the U.S. has no intention to topple North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and reiterated the U.S. wants to resolve the nuclear standoff peacefully through diplomacy.

''If we'd respect their sovereignty and their economic activity, then there would be a basis to move forward,'' he said.

Armitage opposed imposing economic sanctions on North Korea to force Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programs.

''We feel right now that it's not appropriate to talk about sanctions,'' he said. ''We've got to give diplomacy a little time to work.''

Tensions on the Korean Peninsula were sparked in October, when North Korea admitted to a U.S. envoy that it has a uranium-enrichment program and said it is no longer bound by the 1994 agreement.

The accord requires North Korea to freeze and dismantle its existing nuclear facilities in exchange for the construction of two proliferation-resistant modern nuclear reactors and shipments of fuel oil as a stopgap measure pending the construction of the first reactor.

In response to Pyongyang's admission of the uranium-enrichment program, the U.S. suspended fuel-oil shipments to North Korea in December.

North Korea has intensified efforts to resume its suspended plutonium-based nuclear program, removing seals at its nuclear facilities at Yongbyon and expelling International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors from the country.

Last week, North Korea said it was withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and threatened to restart long-range missile testing.

If North Korea resumes missile tests, ''it wouldn't be a surprise,'' Armitage said.

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[ApesForEvolution]

What a joke! There's no point in ever having even talked to these clowns about this, especially not until after Iraq. We would have been better off totally and utterly ignoring them 100% than the flip-flop-waffle course that has led to this most recent round of bs that the Powell administration has fed to Bush - which he gladly seems to be chowing down. This is complete insanity.

"In an interview with the Wall Street Journal earlier this week, Secretary of State Colin Powell said if North Korea agrees to abandon its nuclear ambitions, the U.S. still would need ''a new arrangement'' that would better constrain Pyongyang's ability to produce nuclear weapons."

There is ONLY *ONE* arrangement that will secure our national interests: the *END* of this radical, insane and wily communist nuclear tinpot regime. That's it. However it's achieved.

Bush bats about 50% in my book on domestic and foreign policy (which is 100 times better than a xxxlinton/algore communist regime - but still *SUCKS*!).

[Southack]

You need to read between the lines.

Armitage has merely told the North Koreans that it is possible for them to obtain an American assurance that we won't topple their government or attack them - if they first agree to a new anti-nuke framework.

In other words, if they don't agree, then they are next on our invasion list.

[agent4cia]

Not only that, but if they want an agreement, a deal needs to include agreement on chemical and convention (missle's). He should have thrown in human rights. This is a step in the right direction, even though North Korea wont buy those conditions. It put us back on the highground and more importantly buys us time.

[Norman Arbuthnot]

I really don't think the NK's are concerned about being invaded by us. That would be MUCH more difficult than invading Iraq. Let's see how we do in Iraq first and how many troops get tied down in the occupation.

Unfortunately, Kim knows we don't have a strong military hand to play right now.

[ApesForEvolution]

"In other words, if they don't agree, then they are next on our invasion list."

WADR, so what if they agree? What exactly does that get us?

[snodog]

I really don't think the NK's are concerned about being invaded by us. That would be MUCH more difficult than invading Iraq. Let's see how we do in Iraq first and how many troops get tied down in the occupation.

Invade! Are you serious? Do you realy think we are on the verge of an invasion of Iraq? A force of 250,000 troops is not an invasion force in a country the size of Texas. It is simply a military operation.

Why would "invading" North Korea be any harder? Because they have a larger army? That doesn't make them a more fierce or able military. That just means that they will suffer greater casualties from our Air Forces.

[ImphClinton]

You are wrong. 250,000 is plenty. More is better but this would make for a great start.

I would imagine we would take the country in pieces. First the northern half. Then the southern part. Finally surrounding Bagdad. I doubt we would even need to enter Bagdad. Sadam would lose power by then. If we do it will be bloody for the Iraquis. We will not send in our troups but take out targets one by one. By this point we had better have proof of WMD though.

[Steel Wolf]

On Pyongyang's repeated demand for a nonaggression pact, Armitage ruled out the possibility of a formal treaty. But he indicated it would be possible for the U.S. to provide a security guarantee to North Korea -- if it dismantles its nuclear weapons programs -- by exchanging letters or official statements.

The NKs must be furious about this 'deal'.

"We require you to dismantle your nuclear weapons program, let the inspectors back in, and give them enough unfettered access anywhere in your country to verify your compliance. In return, we offer you several crisp new sheets of paper, perfect for framing and admiring."

''We feel right now that it's not appropriate to talk about sanctions,'' he said. ''We've got to give diplomacy a little time to work.''

And Mr. Diplomatic Translator 2000 says....

''We don't want to talk about what we're going to do to you yet,'' he said. ''We've got to take out Iraq first. Our policy is only take out one lunatic dicator at a time.''

If North Korea resumes missile tests, ''it wouldn't be a surprise,'' Armitage said.

If North Korea resumes missile tests, ''We'll know what you have been hiding, and we can show the world you're a growing menace to all.'' Armitage said.

[spetznaz]

Hi SteelWolf,

On this prior thread ( U.S. Wants Cash For N.Korea Fuel, Nuke Aid ) i said how i thought this whole process would play out, and that we would give the North everything they asked for apart from one thing ....a non-aggression agreement between Pyongyang and Washington (I said instead there would be some sort of proxy arrangement).

Well, it seems yet another piece falls into place. From the above article you can see that not only does Powell say there is a 'new arrangement' deal in place should Pyongyang stop its nuke dreams, but (and more importantly) U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage just said (on Friday) some things that pertain to North Korea's demand for a non-aggression pact.

Armitage said that there would be no such agreement (his words were 'there would be no formal treaty'), but that it would be 'possible for the U.S. to provide a security guarantee to North Korea -- if it dismantles its nuclear weapons programs -- by exchanging letters or official statements.'

That was what i was trying to tell you SteelWolf ....the way government works is different from the way people would like to see it work. As i have said in other threads that is the reason US manufacturing capacity (and secrets) are going to China in droves, that is why the National Guard cannot be posted to protect the border, that is why the US had been wide open to terrorism throughout the whole 90s decade (and according to some is still wide open), and that is why we (the US) will make a sweet-heart deal with Pyongyang! North Korea, as i said, will get virtually everything they ask for, apart from a formal non-aggression treaty (and as i had posted before even that would be taken care of unofficially).

Again i say if i were a betting man i would have placed a bet with you ....but there is no need for that. And as you said it would be better anyways to just donate to FR. But i hope you now see the point i was trying to make. We will cement a deal with Pyongyang ....the US knows that, Seoul knows that, Pyongyang knows that, Beijing knows that, Russia knows that, Tokyo knows that, and Taipei does too. Every entity involved in this whole mess knows it, because that is the only viable option present.

Unless ofcourse we launch nukes .....and the chances of that happening without amazing provocation (and the North may be crazy but it is not suicidal) is next to none. Hence what is left .....diplomacy, treaties, payoffs, barter-trade (nukes for light-water reactors ala Clinton) .....or what some would call appeasement.

Hopefully we will learn from this experience and ensure we are never put in such a fix ever again. Maybe in the future when we 'draw lines in the sand' (as 'someone' said) we will make sure we will not cross that line 2 months later.

Let me leave you with more gems from Armitage: On Pyongyang's repeated demand for a nonaggression pact, Armitage ruled out the possibility of a formal treaty. But he indicated it would be possible for the U.S. to provide a security guarantee to North Korea -- if it dismantles its nuclear weapons programs -- by exchanging letters or official statements. ''Now, there is no possibility that today any treaty of nonaggression would pass the Congress because many in Congress feel very badly, and understandably so, about what has happened in North Korea and the nullification of the Agreed Framework by the North Koreans,'' he said. Armitage said the U.S. will assure North Korea, a country President George W. Bush branded as part of an ''axis of evil'' along with Iraq and Iran, that Washington has ''no hostile intentions'' toward Pyongyang. ''We believe that there is a way to document this, whether an exchange of letters or a statement, official statements or something like that,'' he said. Armitage said the U.S. has no intention to topple North Korean leader Kim Jong Il and reiterated the U.S. wants to resolve the nuclear standoff peacefully through diplomacy. ''If we'd respect their sovereignty and their economic activity, then there would be a basis to move forward,'' he said. Armitage opposed imposing economic sanctions on North Korea to force Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear programs. ''We feel right now that it's not appropriate to talk about sanctions,'' he said. ''We've got to give diplomacy a little time to work.''

[Steel Wolf]

Howdy Spetz,

The deal here is that North Korea doesn't want a handshake deal scribbled on White House office stationary, they want an old fashioned, honest-to-Marx treaty, and they realize now that they aren't going to get it.

Yes, they are bellowing. I would be too, if I were them. They realize that the document Armitage is talking about isn't worth the recycled paper its printed on. They need something substantial they can wave at the U.N. and say 'Hey, look, the American's are breaking this treaty they signed. They're the bad guys, not us.' They are starting to understand that they won't get it.

They're still trying to shake us down. They need cash, fuel, and food, and they need it yesterday.

Bush is letting the answering machine get it when they call. He's having his flunkies make vague statements for him, promising nothing of value. He's going to stonewall their every request until they give into his demands. These prerequisites are reasonable, and quote perfect U.N. chapter and verse. He knows that they will never agree to his terms, but that the world will have no choice but to recognize North Korea as the dangerous rogue state that it is when they refuse.

Watch and learn, young Jedi. ;-) Things are not what they seem. Bush is one of the most deviously deceptive and clever presidents we've ever had. You're still too busy trying to read his lips, and not watch his hands.

North Korea has no ante to up, and we already know they're bluffing as it is. To give them anything now would be foolish, unnecessary, and counterproductive. If we start shipping them oil again or finish their reactors (not SAY we will, but DO it)I'll write a vanity post about how badly wrong I was, but the reality for North Korea is friendly words and no worthwhile deals.

[spetznaz]

You have a good point ...but i also think i also have a valid one (especially based on pertinent decisions made for probably the last half-century). GW and his administration may be different, but i doubt they are that divergent from the handlings of prior administrations (both Democrat and Republican since the workings of upper-echelon government are 'equal opportunity').

Or maybe i am a little jaded and i am viewing all this with jaundiced eyes! That is an inherent possibility, but based on past trends and current projections i really doubt it.

Maybe GW will pull a rabbit out of a hat! After all he has been consistently doing that since his election ....beating all odds and expectations (i remember when the guy was elected ...his days prior to 9-11 ....and virtually everyone and his grandma was at some level doubting him). However GW has turned out to be one of the truly great POTUS' in history, and one whose name shall not be forgotten to the annals of history. Hence if someone can break the trend it is him ....but remember he is only one man and a part of his administration is still aligned to the old ways.

Anyways you may be right. Part of me actually hopes you are right (i say part because i really hate being wrong LOL). However something tells me the conclusion to all this will be what i said.

However as you said 'watch and learn.' Everything is not at it seems ....i believe that is the first rule of geo-politics. But that works both ways.

Take care SteelWolf, nice chatting with ya.

Spetz!

[Jumper]

Public Relations bump

[BlackbirdSST]

In other words, if they don't agree, then they are next on our invasion list.Call it what it is, pandering. An "agreement" with a Communist Dictatorship, is no agreement. How many time's has history demonstrated this to us? How many times in the last couple of year's? People are so stupid....All this will do is embolden all of the rest of the world's dictator's to strive for aquisition. But WTH, it's only a few more billion's of hard earned American Tax dollar's at risk. There's plenty to go around! Blackbird.

[Southack]

"Call it what it is, pandering. An "agreement" with a Communist Dictatorship, is no agreement."

Ahhh, how quickly and conveniently some forget just "what" they would be agreeing too (e.g. dismantling their enrichment facilities, full and unfettered access by UN inspectors 24/7, et al).

None are so blind as they who won't see...

[Southack]

"so what if they agree? What exactly does that get us?"

Everything.

To "agree" would mean complete and total surrender on their part.

They don't even get fuel oil for "agreeing". All that they get is a document that can't even be signed or ratified as a treaty, in exchange for leveling their nuclear enrichment facilities.

[Southack]

"Unfortunately, Kim knows we don't have a strong military hand to play right now."

You are smoking crack.

Bush can press a single button and launch enough nukes to literally kill every North Korean in the next 15 minutes.

The North Koreans know full well that their nuclear threats and their missile launches over Japan and Alaska carry the potential of their own extinction.

Thus, they play their brinksmanship game with studied caution, even as they pretend to be the crazy Aunt in the attic...

[Norman Arbuthnot]

Invade! Are you serious? Do you realy think we are on the verge of an invasion of Iraq? A force of 250,000 troops is not an invasion force in a country the size of Texas. It is simply a military operation.

Yes, I do think we are going to invade and occupy Iraq. Our forces are going to enter Iraq, defeat their military and we are going to take control of their country. We will probably occupy Iraq with 80,000 to 100,000 troops for a period of at least 2 years. I would call that an invasion. Just ask the Iraqi's what they would call it.

Why would "invading" North Korea be any harder? Because they have a larger army? That doesn't make them a more fierce or able military. That just means that they will suffer greater casualties from our Air Forces.

I don't think there is any question that invading NK would be more difficult than invading Iraq, for a variety of reasons, including the following:

*The million man NK army, which includes 100,000 special op's troops. The NK army is also qualitatively better than Iraq's.
*Weapons-The NK's may already have two or more nukes, in addition to a substantial amount of chemical and biological weapons.
*Terrain-Korea presents much more difficult challenge than Iraq because it is a mountainous country.
*Seoul-Even if we defeat the NK's rapidly we won't be able to prevent Seoul from being destroyed. The NK's have thousands of artillery pieces and missles trained on Seoul and those things will go off on day one of armed conflict.

In the end an armed conflict with NK may prove to be unavoidable because their leadership simply can't be trusted. I think we would win, put the cost in terms of lives and the destruction of property will be much higher than Iraq.

[Norman Arbuthnot]

Bush can press a single button and launch enough nukes to literally kill every North Korean in the next 15 minutes.

Sure, we have the capability of doing that, but what are the chances that we will unless we are attacked first by them? Zero , IMO. I'm sure Kim is thinking the same thing.

Do you think it is coincidental that the NK's have chosen to ramp up their nuke program and act so belligerent at a time when the bulk of our military is committed to the ME? They know we can't handle two major conflicts at the same time. So, that leaves us with the nuclear option, which just about every other country in the world would oppose, especially SK and Japan, who would be exposed to the fallout.