Is the Global Economy About to Crash?

washingtondispatch ^ | 1/26/2003 | Pat Buchanan

[Dog Gone]

Pat is an economist like I am a brain surgeon.

[Monty22]

Good grief. I've been unemployed for awhile, and things are pretty crummy, but c'mon. This is 'worst economy in 50 years' talk. We have far more to fear from bio/chem/nuke attacks than this.

[arete]

Pat has it about right. We are in serious economic waters and they are getting deeper. Issuing even more debt to cover an already badly stressed credit system isn't the answer and is only going to make things worse when we finally hit the reality wall.

Richard W.

[ex-snook]

The odds are Buchanan is right. Pat's forecasting record is outstanding. He best articulates Conservatism for America first. Good, honest analysts are just like prophets, they warn us about things we don't want to hear (or what others don't want us to hear). We ignore them to our peril.

Pat was right about illegal immigration, stock market bubble, unbalanced trade destroying jobs, homosexual practices are a no-no (Catholic Church already devastated), foreign entanglements will bring war to our shores, abortion is an evil practice and the GOP is no longer pro-life.

Republicans and Democrats saw budget surplus, tax cuts and unlimited spending for as far as the eye could see. Pat did not fake the public.

[Willie Green]

"Americans are being true neither to themselves nor their heritage as the champions of freedom and decency if they engage in business-as-usual with tyrants who trample upon all that we profess to hold sacred. For Americans there must always be some things still greater in the hierarchy of values than the bottom line of a balance sheet. It is time to put country before commerce, and let America be America again."

-- Patrick J. Buchanan, "A Time for Truth About China", (April 5, 1999)

Fundamentally, we believe that the U.S. government needs to devote more resources and put in place new programs to build wider expertise about China and to protect our industrial base from eroding as a result of our economic relations with China.

-- C. Richard D’Amato, chairman
U.S.-China Security Review Commission
(How to improve U.S.-China relations )

[TheDon]

Hmm...

[AEMILIUS PAULUS]

QUESTION:"Is the Global Economy About to Crash?"

ANSWER: Impossible! Why we have diversity-which is our strength. We have Free Trade-which is better than the Second Coming. The Millenium is here. Nothing can go wrong, can go wrong, can go wrong, can go wrong.

[razorback-bert]

Our economists seem to be better politicians than economists, so maybe some of our politicians would be good economists.

[shaggy eel]

time will tell.

[Soren]

Is your point that there is a gigantic head and shoulders pattern portending a huge decline once the neckline just below 8000 is penetrated?

[SerfsUp]

Yes that's what I see. Price objective looks to be about 5000.

[SerfsUp]

And what a coincidence that a historical fair-value P/E of 14 puts the Dow at 5309. Hmmm...

[Dec31,1999]

Sure is a BIG bubble! And we all know What happens to BIG bubbles. They pop. Hold onto your hats!

[Soren]

Well, that depends on how you calculate the E in PE. IMO, the most appropriate way is trailing 12 months on a GAAP basis, as opposed to projected earnings and pro forma earnings. When you do that, the current PE is more than 40. That would put fair value around 3000. But if you consider bear market troughs usually overshoot fair value and bottom at PEs around 8, then we are talking sub-2000.

[TheDon]

Just trying to put a little perspective on the recent loses.

[TheDon]

and losses too... :)

[razorback-bert]

Members of the tin-foil crowd think it is the share price divided by the dividend.

[lodwick]

bttt - cash rules. Stay liquid folks.