'Major Systems Failure' Indicated

CNSNews.com ^ | 2-01-03

[hope]

'Major Systems Failure' Indicated">

'Major Systems Failure' Indicated
By Susan Jones and Scott Hogenson
CNSNews.com Staff
February 01, 2003

(CNSNews.com) - A senior government official says NASA's data shows a "major systems failure," CBS News reported Saturday afternoon.

Videotape showed a large piece of something coming off the orbiter immediately prior to its mid-air breakup over Texas Saturday morning. NASA reportedly is focusing on the space shuttle Columbia's left wing as the possible source of the catastrophic failure.

NASA said there is no indication that the breakup was caused by anything or anyone on the ground.

However, press reports noted that during the launch of the space shuttle Columbia 16 days ago, a piece of insulation came loose and appeared to hit the left wing of the shuttle. It's not clear what the extent of the damage may have been, if there was any damage at all.

Temperature stress on the shuttle is highest during the re-entry period. It was on re-entry that Mission Control lost communications with Columbia.

Space shuttles are protected from the heat of re-entry by an intricate system of heat tiles, according to Robert G. Melton, a professor of aerospace engineering at Pennsylvania State University.

According to Melton's research, "shuttle orbiters use a system of 30,000 tiles made of a silica compound that does not ablate, but does rapidly radiate heat away from the orbiter. These tiles can be repaired in space."

Melton's research notes that the "major disadvantages are fragility," among the heat tiles, which are "easily damaged before launch and by orbital debris; lots of tile damage due to debris since anti-satellite tests in mid-80s.

Another shortcoming of the tiles, according to Melton's research, is their complexity and the fact that "many people (are) needed to manually attach tiles to orbiter in a tedious and time-consuming process, and to inspect them all before launch."

Melton's research indicates that during the re-entry period, maximum temperatures are recorded at an altitude of 40 miles with a speed of 15,000 miles per hour.

It is also during this time that communications are routinely disrupted because of ionization, which is caused by the high temperatures and "creates an impenetrable barrier to radio signals," according to Melton's research.

According to NASA, contact with Columbia was lost when the shuttle was flying at roughly 200,000 feet at a speed of more than 12,000 miles per hour.

 

[_Jim]

The video clip in question was taken by a local news crew from an aircraft.

No it wasn't.

Where do you get that?

John Pronk (WFAA personnel), who took that, was at Fair Park - which is five to ten minutes from the WFAA studio in downtown Dallas ...

[fuente]

Well normally I would agree with you. It's quite evident that the vid was being shot by an amature. When he took the tight shot (just before) the resolution was quite good, but he was having tremor problems (common with free hand). So he backed way out. I noticed that the resolution was not good at that point. Now this actually makes sense if you understand how the auto-focus on a digital camera works. Now I don't claim to see the tail separation in the vid I saw. Seems the auto-focus was hunting during this time because he's just went back to wide view when the shuttle came apart.

[Alberta's Child]

I think this comment was correct. If you look at the video that was playing all day on FOX and look carefully at the very beginning (when the shuttle looked like a large, diamond-shaped thing because of the lens distortion), there is clearly something flying at the same speed as the shuttle below it and to the right. This is before any of the debris contrails appear, so it is likely that something large broke off very early on.

I also suspect that communication and data were cut off to the ground at least several seconds before those video clips were recorded.

[Justa]

"STS-107 had already experienced catastrophic problems for 3 minutes by the time the video was captured by WFAA CH 8 in Dallas."

Well, if accurate then the tail breaking off would be secondary to whatever initiated it. I'll take your word for it then. This may be the case, as in the same frame I'm referring to there is a large, star-shaped dark spot on the underside of the orbiter, approx 1/2 the way back and a little left-of-center.

Trust me, this video is not of an 'artifact'. It is the shuttle and its tail falling away from it. The frame I'm referencing is approximately 2/5s thru the sequence and is quite clear. The 3 main engines are visible, it's tail is missing and there's the large dark spot on it's underside. I wrote that one off as an artifact. Perhaps some damaged heat shields and a blown tire are the cause after all with the fuel tank insulation starting the whole thing. In any event you really do have to see the frame. It's quite something. Surely someone will grab it and enhance it and you'll see what I'm talking about.

[Alberta's Child]

There was a lengthy discussion about this video on another thread. What you are seeing there is not the orbiter -- it's actually an image distortion inherent in that kind of video camera. FOX News said that this video was recorded by an amateur on the ground, and there's no way in hell they could get that kind of magnification from 200,000 feet away.

[ez]

Just *prior* to the big break-up, there were several larger 'somethings' that came off the shuttle and dropped back (slowed down) markedly from the shutle ... this is EASILY viewable on the video taken by WFAA CH 8 in Dallas.

You can see one easily identifiable piece of debris near the beginning that falls "above" the contrail. It is a large piece of silvery reflective sheet metal that is spinning...the rotation is evident. It seems this is a piece of the outer skin of the craft, possibly a plate from the left wing.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

After something like this happens, the media inevitably latch on something as the probable cause and talk incessantly about it as if it were settled fact. And then in the subsequent investigation, it becomes clearly evident that the cause was actually something completely different.

People have always been worried about those tiles -- they are clearly the "weakest link" in the whole system (and this is not just my opinion -- you can find plenty of articles by people more knowledgeable than me saying the same thing). There have been several close calls in the past, perhaps it was just inevitable that eventually, the right number of tiles would come off in the right places at the right time to combine and cause a catastrophe, and that just might be what happened today.

[ironman]

"These tiles can be repaired in space"

I think the author of the aritcle left out the words "can not."

[Alberta's Child]

There's no way that shuttle would be moving sideways like that at a speed of 18,000 miles per hour without rotating and gyrating out of control. I first thought it was the same thing that you did, but after going through this at length on another thread I'm convinced that what you are seeing here is not the details of an actual object, but a distortion in the video image caused by an out-of-focus object.

[semaj]

An article on WorldnetDAily quotes an Italian Astronaut/Scientist (Completed Shuttle Missions) has stated he thought that the shuttle re-entered at too steep a re-entry angle which creates too much speed, friction, and heat. All of which caused the structural integrity of teh shuttle to fail. I think he may be on to something.

[_Jim]

I also suspect that communication and data were cut off to the ground at least several seconds before those video clips were recorded.

Try 3 minutes for any video captured in the Dallas area ...

(20 seconds from horizon to horizon - YOU do the math.)

[Lancey Howard]

"Recent inspections of Space Shuttle Atlantis and Space Shuttle Discovery found cracks, measuring one-tenth to three-tenths of an inch, in one flow liner on each of those vehicles. Some of the cracks were not identifiable using standard visual inspections and were only discovered using more intensive inspection techniques. "These cracks may pose a safety concern and we have teams at work investigating all aspects of the situation," said Space Shuttle Program Manager Ron Dittemore. "This is a very complex issue and it is early in the analysis. Right now there are more questions than answers. Our immediate interests are to inspect the hardware to identify cracks that exist, understand what has caused them and quantify the risk. I am confident the team will fully resolve this issue, but it may take some time. Until we have a better understanding, we will not move forward with the launch of STS-107." The impact of the investigation on other upcoming space shuttle launches has not been determined." - - June 24, 2002

This is some very interesting information.
I'm thinking we may not see a shuttle launch for awhile.

[Alberta's Child]

I think you're getting something confused here. Most shuttle launches are videotaped by military aircraft flying at high altitudes to record the orbiter as high as possible. If you go back to 1986 and remember those classic shots of the Challenger coming apart, keep in mind that those clips were shot with large, specialized pieces of equipment. Nobody who videotaped that launch from the ground would have been able to get that kind of magnification, and the Challenger was "only" 48,000 feet up (as opposed to 200,000+) when it was lost.

[_Jim]

falls "above" the contrail.

Yes, an optical illusion, *seemingly* rises above, given the direction the main bulk of the shuttle was heading, but was actually moving away laterally for the most part (initially) and appearing to fall above ...

[Justa]

"John Pronk (WFAA personnel), who took that, was at Fair Park - which is five to ten minutes from the WFAA studio in downtown Dallas ..."

K, I read it was taken by WFAA from an aircraft on another thread earlier today. I've got it in WMP 7 on a 128MB video card and .25dp monitor. In any event it's got THE Frame. Besides some atmospheric distortion it clearly shows the shuttle and it's 3 main engines facing south, a large dark spot underneith it 1/2 way back and the tail down off to the right, black rudder markings showing. I can't save a screen capture of it though. Time will tell.

[Stefan Stackhouse]

I'm pretty sure that's a typo. I've never heard anybody from NASA claim they have any way to replace or repair tiles in orbit. Primarily, I would suspect, because the tiles are all unique with individual partnumbers, as they must conform to the skin of the spacecraft, so you couldn't just stock some of them and stick em on with superglue. You'd have to stock all of them, and that would effectively double the weight of the heat shield!

I suppose that it would be hypothetically possible to stock one of everything in a container and send it up into low earth orbit; then a shuttle in trouble could rendezvous with the container and they could pull out the tiles they need via an EVA. An expensive, convoluted approach, to be sure, but hypothetically possible. I've seen in other posts that claim that even if they had such replacement tiles available, it would be impossible to attach them to the shuttle. I'm not sure if that is because it is truly impossible, or simply that no one has given any thought to developing a method whereby it might be done.

Given that these tiles clearly are and always have been the "weakest link," and given that these shuttles too few and expensive to be expendible (not to mention the lives at stake), in retrospect it is tempting to wish that some more creative thanking had been directed toward dealing with such contingencies.

[fuente]

Well going sideways is a little strong. The S turns used for braking and rotating the leading edges for heat dissapation purposes, involves a small bank to the right and a small bank to the left. When an aircraft turns, it really kinda slides sideways, meaning the trajectory vector is more toward the path of original momentum, than the orientation of the vessle. It was also at the beginning of this bank turn to the right (leading edges to the left) when the disaster struck.

[Alberta's Child]

I've reviewed that clip a few times, and I think I see what you're talking about.

If you watch the text scrolling across the bottom of the screen, look at the phrase ". . . CAMP DAVID TO MONITOR SPACE SHUTTLE COLUMBIA SITUATION . . ."

The image you are talking about is clearest just as the second T in the word SHUTTLE appears, and before the L appears. Am I correct?

[Alberta's Child]

Good point. I was completely unaware of exactly where in the sequence of events the video image was recorded. I thought it was closer to the actual break-up because there is not yet any visible contrail at the start.

[muffaletaman]

Doesn't matter if they were in a plane...

Even if they were flying at 20,000 feet EXACTLY under the shuttle, they were still 35 miles away from it.

But in fact, the angle above the horizon DEFINES how far away from the shuttle they were, because the height of the shuttle AGL (above Ground Level) is known - it is simple trigonometry.

Distance to Shuttle = 40 miles AGL / sine of angle up from horizon.

At 45 degrees above the horizon, the distance = 56 miles for example.

At the end of some of the video sequences, if the debris had by that time descended to 30 miles AGL, having slowed significantly and on its way to the ground, and was at an angle of about 15 degrees above the horizon, the shuttle debris was 115 miles away.

But there is also the other factor - until the material had slowed significantly - it was surrounded by plasma - you couldn't see through the flame to see the parts if you wanted to.

= = = = = = = = =

HOWEVER, clearly the shuttle may well have split into a segment including the aft section as a single piece for a few seconds until IT was shredded to parts by the high forces imposed on large structures, as well as incinerated/vaporized before it slowed sufficiently.

The leading edges of the wings of the SR-71 glow a dull red when it is flying at mach 3+ at 80,000 ft+ - which is why it has a titanium skin. Speeds in the atmosphere above this - about 2200 mph - make things hot, and the only things designed to stand this heat on the shuttle are the tiles.

The largest parts found so far are about 5' square, from what I've heard so far... wouldn't surprise me if it were part of the bell from the rocket engines - they are made of the right material and configured such that they could have been protected for a significant amount of time before the destruction was utter.

The odds IMHO are that a small control surface or section of outboard wing was exposed to air due to tile damage - and was cut as if by an arc welder or palsma torch and separated early - maybe several minutes before the ultimate failure, and then things just cascaded.

Re-entry is relatively gentle compared to takeoff. Forces do not exceed 1 g, compared to 3+ on takeoff plus the vibration caused by the SRB's. The control systems could have compensated for a good bit of instability at higher altitudes for quite a while... before things finally and suddenly cascaded out of control.

= = = = = = = = =

Our condolences are extended to the families of the astronauts - our gratitude and respect to these who perished in exploration, and those who will follow them down these same dangerous paths to the future of our exploration of space.