'What If?' Iraq Dilemma Faces Oscar Planners [For Hollywood, worse case scenario: U.S. victory]

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Hollywood is putting the final touches on its annual Oscar extravaganza while wondering whether one of the ritziest shows on earth will go on.

The ballots have been mailed, the gowns are being fitted and the golden statuettes have been cast for the March 23 Oscar ceremony -- around the time many analysts believe the United States and its allies could be at war with Iraq.

The unspoken "What if?" dilemma facing Hollywood is whether war will wait until after the Oscar red carpet is rolled out, and whether the curtain will go up if it does not.

"It is mind-boggling enough to put the thing on in the first place," said Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences spokesman John Pavlik. "There's not a whole lot of advantage in trying to plan for every conceivable scenario and whether to cancel or postpone."

"Did the war start three weeks ago? Did it start today? Did we win already? Or are we smack in the middle of some bloody thing? We'll do whatever looks like the right thing to do, but there's no way to plan for this," Pavlik told Reuters.

The Oscar ceremony, the movie industry's most prestigious event, has been postponed on only a handful of occasions in its 75-year-long history, none of them to do with the outbreak of war -- after a 1938 flood in Los Angeles, after the April 1968 assassination of Martin Luther King and after the March 1981 shooting of President Ronald Reagan.

Taking months of preparation and drawing a worldwide television audience of 1 billion, the star-studded night of glamour and glad-handing is unlikely to be canceled or postponed.

The ceremony is to air on the U.S. ABC television network, a unit of The Walt Disney Co .

But the wrong decision could provoke a backlash -- not just in the United States but in the eyes of a world already critical of American isolationism.

"It might look like Hollywood fiddling while Baghdad burns," said Tom O'Neil, author of "The Ultimate Guide to the Oscars."

"But you are also dealing with a business where the motto is that the show must go on. Historically speaking, Hollywood has served a key role in keeping America's spirits up, so there is almost a social obligation that they have to carry out."

O'Neil recalled the criticism when the Golden Globes movie award ceremony went ahead in Beverly Hills in 1994 just five days after an earthquake killed 61 people in Los Angeles.

"What'll I do if another one hits?" comic actor Robin Williams joshed to a reporter on the Golden Globes red carpet that year. "Stand near a lady who's had a face lift -- because it won't fall!"

U.S. television's annual Emmy awards ceremony was canceled twice in 2001 -- once after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington, and again weeks later as the United States launched its bombing campaign against Afghanistan.

Pavlik said the public mood would play a part in any decision. "We're of the country. We're not just sitting out here in Hollywood not being part of it," he said.

"If we are in a war where American boys and girls are coming back in body bags ... the mood of the country will switch pretty fast, and we have to be ready to react to it."

Academy officials have already said the budget for security at Hollywood's Kodak Theater will be double that of other years. Last year airspace was closed over Hollywood, concrete barricades blocked the theater entrance, and star-gazers had to apply weeks in advance for tickets in the bleachers outside.

So far there have been no reports of celebrities deciding not to attend out of security fears.

Cancellation of the Oscar ceremony is unlikely, Oscar-watchers say. Far more probable would be a scaled-down event, with stars encouraged to dress down and the more frivolous parties and balls put on ice, along with the champagne.

"To cancel would be a major move," said Dennis Broe, associate professor of media arts at Long Island University.

"I think the feeling among Americans would be that this is part of the American lifestyle that we are fighting to protect."

"Are the Oscars even relevant anymore?

I mean, who cares? "

People who have recieved oscars. If at one time you recieved an oscar you want the oscars to be significant. The studios do not care about the award only the free PR it generates for the movie. PR=profit $$$$

You would be hard pressed to find a member of the general public who could name the best picture, actor and actress winners from the previous year off the top of their heads. Forget the other categories only the true movie buffs know those. Last year might be an anomaly because of the "breakthrough for the actor and actress awards so maybe a few more might remember those two. But try to name all three. If you can go back two years....even harder....again off the top of your head.

The unspoken "What if?" dilemma facing Hollywood is whether war will wait until after the Oscar red carpet is rolled out, and whether the curtain will go up if it does not.

Yeah, DoD has a contingency plan to put everything on hold for 24 hours so the Oscars can go on uninterrupted from something as distracting as a war - NOT. Pure self absorption, the essence of Hollywood. Those from Hollywood who pretend to be illuminated, world view intellectuals against a war in Iraq are the same fools who wring their hands over whether they will be able to walk down the red carpet on time to congratulate themselves on being professional pretenders. The irony is as thick as their wallets padded by American dollars brought to them from the people threatened by the terrorists they defend through their protest of the war.

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