Posted on 03/12/2003 2:58:14 PM PST by Tailgunner Joe
Beijing's "long term strategic objective is to drive American bases and influence out of the Pacific region and to exercise hegemony over it". I wrote those words nearly four years ago. Since then events in the region have only strengthened my assessment.
It has been decided in Beijing that North Korea will play a significant role in turning the Pacific-Asian region, which includes Australia and New Zealand, into Beijing's 'legitimate sphere of influence'. As I stated three years ago, Beijing's ultimate aim at present is to "drive [the US] out of the Pacific Asian region, leaving Hawaii as its only Pacific base." This will leave Australia and New Zealand virtually defenceless.
I think it is necessary to draw attention to these facts — and they are facts — because they help explain what is happening in North Korea. The North has suffered a complete economic collapse. Without aid from Beijing and the West the regime would have imploded years ago. Furthermore, there is absolutely no possibility of successful reform. North Korea is on a permanent life support system until Beijing pulls the plug. This means that it is basically a Chinese client state.
It also means that Kim's nuclear and missile programmes were carried out with the full support of Beijing. And this is where it gets interesting.
I have said many times that I am not privy to the goings on of the inner party but my position does allow me pick up information from party officials. This information suggests that the regime's current policy on North Korea does not enjoy unanimous support and could very well change.
Beijing's assessment of Clinton the man and his advisors persuaded her that Kim could successfully blackmail Washington, which he did with an ease that even surprised Beijing. The result of Clinton's cowardice was that Kim got nuclear weapons facilities and billions of dollars in aid, which relieved Beijing of the necessity of providing more aid to prop up the North.
Threats, sabre rattling and outright lies got Kim and Beijing what they wanted. But Clinton has gone and Bush sits in the White House, radically changing the situation. This may have caused tension in Beijing with realists arguing that a change of tactics is now necessary, while those stuck in the Clinton era think all American presidents are basically the same as Clinton.
The realists argue that Bush will not cave in as Clinton willingly did. And events are bearing out their assessment. Therefore a change in direction is badly needed. To support their view they have argued that inciting Kim's wild fantasies could encourage Japan to resort to building a nuclear defence force, and perhaps even South Korea as well, and that this might lead to America extending its proposed anti-missile defence systems to these countries, making it even harder to dislodge America from the region.
Although the Clinton school of thought argues that China can live with a nuclear armed Japan and South Korea the realists retort that why should China have to suffer nuclear weapons on its doorstep when it can avoid this situation while eventually ridding the region of American bases. It has apparently been put with some force that frightening Japan into building a nuclear strike force and strengthening its ties with the US could frustrate Beijing's plans for hegemony. Even the term 'blowback' has apparently been used.
So what to do about Kim? Beijing will not allow him to attack the South. And it will not allow him to launch a suicidal attack against the US. It won't let him give nuclear weapons to terrorists. (One of them might even end up in Beijing).
If this was five card stud, a game I used to play in Hong Kong, the Kim hand would have been thrown in ages ago. What we have is a situation that even Beijing does not quite know how to handle. The whole thing is conveyed as operating on an ad hoc basis.
No matter how much Beijing party members differ on what to do with Kim, they all agree that the situation cannot continue indefinitely, particularly with Bush in the White House.
I heard that two solutions have been proposed. First, Beijing quietly gives the nod to Bush to take out Kim's nuclear facilities and then plays the outraged world citizen while Bush goes down as the naked aggressor. This might play well in South Korea where North Korea has been funding anti-American organisations operated by North Korean agents of influence. They could create such a violent reaction that America might be forced to withdraw.
The second solution would be to allow the North to completely implode and give sanctuary to Kim. This would immediately add 25 million starving North Koreans to the South's 46 million well fed citizens. The immediate effects on living standards and economic development would be devastating. It might take two generations for the economy to fully recover.
As an apparent act of good faith Beijing could offer Korea nominal aid knowing that the US would be impelled to foot most of the bill. With Kim out of the way and Beijing bearing gifts, meagre as they would be, it is argued that Korea would no longer feel the need to host US forces and Japan would be relieved of the necessity to build nuclear weapons as a deterrent against the North.
This situation, if it materialised, would be a win-win one for Beijing in its plans for political expansion. US forces would have been peacefully evicted out of a strategic part of mainland Asia leaving Japan feeling more optimistic about future relations with China.
We will just have to wait to see which course of action Beijing will choose to take. Whatever is decided, Kim will stay in power until Beijing thinks it is time for him to go. I should add that Beijing fears that Kim might get too big for his boots and do something incredibly stupid. This is an added reason for caging him.
The fallout is a killer!
The mantle was recently passed to a relatively young despot.
If so, it is further indication that Bill Clinton's worst nightmare...that the world will come to recognize he was a total joke as president,will be his legacy...despite his frantic efforts the remainder of his days to keep the blinders on those who want to believe the playboy imposter president was anything but a disgrace and a traitor to the nation.
PS -- no one hates this lying, perjuring, raping, traitorous, impeached, disbarred bastard more than do I.
I don't have much negative to say about the article, as it provides some interesting commentary and assessment. This is one statement I'm absolutely convinced is false. China facilitated nuclear weapons in Pakistan. For anyone whose missed it, Pakistan is a very problematic state. It could go south at about any time. When it does, the chances of nukes or even nuke technology winding up in the hands of terrorists is way better than 50/50.
We haven't seen attempts over the years to develop nukes in Iran, Iraq, North Korea and other nations. All of a sudden, just at the time of China's emergence into onto the global stage, all these nations have nuclear programs of advancing technology. I believe that the North Korean tactic this writer mentions, is being utilized with a number of other states.
Europe, Russia and China all deserve some credit for this. For the almight Euros, Franks, Duetch Marks, Yen, even dollars, folks have been willing to gift these terrorist states with goodies, read that nuclear related goodies.
I've taken China to task for it, but the other nations are going to have to take their fair share of credit for it as well. And guess what, we'll find some Americans complicit in the problems we'll face in Iraq, Iran and other places. We have a bunch of idiots in this world. It's getting harder to stop them from selling their grandmother for some currency, and not all that much currency either.
We even had a President compromise some positions for a few hundred grand.
Clinton to his Red masters handlers .. "Mission Accomplished"
We have to prioritize this technology, and may God help us if the libs get back in charge in the forseeable future.
As we know from the Limbaugh Institute for Advanced Conservative Studies, many far left libs do not think we should have a technological "advantage".
One thing is certain - the Chinese do not want a certified lunatic lobbing real nuclear weapons around the theater. Nor will the Japanese permit it - the prevailing wind is west-to-east.
In reality, though, I think the Chinese are waiting and watching how the U.S. reacts to this essentially unprovoked brinksmanship on the part of North Korea. What we will do in this sort of situation is knowledge far, far more valuable to their strategists than what we might do.
That's right. All the way to Poland.
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