Iranian Alert -- August 4, 2003 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

The Iranian Student Movement Up To The Minute Reports ^ | 8.4.2003 | DoctorZin

[DoctorZIn]

The regime is working hard to keep the news about the protest movment in Iran from being reported.

From jamming satellite broadcasts, to prohibiting news reporters from covering any demonstrations to shutting down all cell phones and even hiring foreign security to control the population, the regime is doing everything in its power to keep the popular movement from expressing its demand for an end of the regime.

These efforts by the regime, while successful in the short term, do not resolve the fundamental reasons why this regime is crumbling from within.

Iran is a country ready for a regime change. If you follow this thread you will witness, I believe, the transformation of a nation. This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to join us here, post your news stories and comments to this thread.

Thanks for all the help.

DoctorZin

[AdmSmith]

Here it is
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/957968/posts

[DoctorZIn]

SMCCDI: Security measures increased in Iranian cities

Aug 4, 2003

Security measures have been increased, since this evening, in most Iranian cities as many Iranians are intending to celebrate, from the early hours of Tuesday morning, the 97th anniversary of the banned Constitutional Revolution of 1906.

Patrols have been increased the Capital and most main provincial cities in order to stop vehicles for ID check and the search of passangers.

The areas most under special watch of the Capital are the Baharestan square, Rey, Majidieh, Tehran Pars, Tajrish, Vali e Asr and Guisha. Same increase of surveillance have been reported from cities, such as Esfahan, Tabriz, Mashad and Shiraz.

Many groups of young freedom fighters have created quantities of hand made detonation devices and will start to use them in the early hours of the morning and during the popular gatherings which will take place later on Tuesday.

The 1906 Constitutional Revolution was an unprecedented move which created the path for the creation of a Nation-State based on Secularism and Modernism in Iran. Clerics have always tried to undermine its legacies as contrary to their illegitimate power.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_1560.shtml

[DoctorZIn]

SMCCDI: Security measures increased in Iranian cities
Aug 4, 2003

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/957730/posts?page=22#22

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail me”

[Pan_Yans Wife]

"hand made detonation devices"

What would that be?

[DoctorZIn]

State Dept. Changes Seen if Bush Reelected

August 04, 2003
The Washington Post
Glenn Kessler

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell and his deputy, Richard L. Armitage, have signaled to the White House that they intend to step down even if President Bush is reelected, setting the stage for a substantial reshaping of the administration's national security team that has remained unchanged through the September 2001 terrorist attacks, two wars and numerous other crises.

Armitage recently told national security adviser Condoleezza Rice that he and Powell will leave on Jan. 21, 2005, the day after the next presidential inauguration, sources familiar with the conversation said. Powell has indicated to associates that a commitment made to his wife, rather than any dismay at the administration's foreign policy, is a key factor in his desire to limit his tenure to one presidential term.

Rice and Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz are the leading candidates to replace Powell, according to sources inside and outside the administration. Rice appears to have an edge because of her closeness to the president, though it is unclear whether she would be interested in running the State Department's vast bureaucracy.

With 18 months left in Bush's current term, many officials said talk of a new foreign policy team is highly premature -- particularly because Bush's reelection is not assured. No one inside or outside the administration agreed to be quoted by name or affiliation in discussing possible Cabinet choices. But on the eve of the country's first post-Sept. 11, 2001, presidential campaign, in which foreign affairs will play a prominent role, the national security lineup for a second Bush term is already a major topic of conversation, at least among those who make and analyze U.S. foreign policy.

Indeed, Director of Central Intelligence George J. Tenet is already the third longest serving CIA chief and is expected to depart, perhaps before the current term ends. Tenet's role in the Iraq weapons controversy has led to calls on Capitol Hill for his dismissal, fueling speculation he will quit soon.

The current administration has been characterized by fierce policy disputes, often between Powell and more hawkish members, and a reshuffling likely would significantly change the tenor and character of the foreign policy team.

Although Bush appears to value the range of opinions he has received from his chief national security advisers, he may feel free if he wins a second term to realign his foreign policy more closely to the harder-edged, conservative view exemplified by Vice President Cheney and Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, according to Zbigniew Brzezinski, President Jimmy Carter's national security adviser.

Powell has staffed key positions in the State Department with close associates, and many of those officials also are expected to leave at the beginning of a second Bush term, giving the new secretary of state the opportunity to substantially re-staff the department.

Some observers have speculated that Powell, who made an extensive presentation before the United Nations in February on Iraq's weapons of mass destruction before the war, has been embarrassed by the failure to find much evidence of chemical, biological or nuclear weapons programs. But Powell, both publicly and privately, has said he has no regrets about his comments to the Security Council, arguing that they hold up well if read carefully.

Powell has declined to answer questions about his plans. "I serve at the pleasure of the president," he said last month. "That's the only answer I've ever given to that question, no matter what form it comes in."

Bush recently named Rice as his personal representative on the Middle East conflict, a move that some State Department officials view as an audition for secretary of state. Republican political operatives have also touted Rice as a possible candidate in the 2006 race for California governor.

But Rice's image has been tarnished by the fallout over the administration's use of intelligence about Iraq's weapons, raising questions about her scrutiny of the materials and the veracity of her public statements.

Rice "is an honest, fabulous person, and America is lucky to have her service, period," Bush said at a news conference before departing for his August vacation.

Wolfowitz, the administration's foreign policy intellectual and prime advocate of a confrontation with Iraq, would be a more daring and controversial choice. A senior Senate Democrat said Wolfowitz would have little trouble winning confirmation in a Republican-controlled Senate. But others said that because Wolfowitz is considered more of a strategic thinker than a manager, he could be tapped as Rice's replacement as national security adviser if she became secretary of state or entered politics.

Long-shot candidates for secretary would include Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), the centrist chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee who is a strong supporter of Powell. Lugar is so respected by Democrats that his name was also floated during the Clinton administration.

Another dark horse is former House speaker Newt Gingrich. The Georgia Republican appears to be openly campaigning for the job, arguing in speeches and in a recent Foreign Policy magazine article that the State Department under Powell has failed to adequately support Bush's policies.

Among other key members of the foreign policy team, Rumsfeld is deeply involved in modernizing the military, as well as in the Pentagon's ongoing operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, and appears willing to stay on beyond the start of a second term, officials said.

If Rice became secretary of state, that would open up another key slot -- national security adviser. Although Wolfowitz is considered a strong possibility, Rice's deputy, Stephen J. Hadley, could move up, much as Samuel R. "Sandy" Berger did when President Bill Clinton won a second term.

Officials also said another strong candidate is I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby, Cheney's chief of staff and already a principal foreign policy adviser inside the White House.

A dark-horse candidate for national security adviser is Steve Biegun, chief foreign affairs aide to Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.), who is said to have impressed Bush when he served as executive secretary of the National Security Council early on in the administration.

There appear to be few obvious choices for a new CIA director. Armitage, known as a sharp manager willing to tackle tough projects, is viewed by some officials as the ideal replacement for Tenet. But Armitage has insisted to others that he will leave the administration on the same day as Powell, one of his closest friends.

Rep. Porter J. Goss (R-Fla.), chairman of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and a former CIA case officer, is considered a strong possibility, as is Wolfowitz if he is not tapped for secretary of state or national security adviser.

Two mid-level administration officials who could move up are Stephen A. Cambone, undersecretary of defense for intelligence, and Richard L. Haver, assistant to Rumsfeld on intelligence (and to Cheney when he was defense secretary in the administration of President George H.W. Bush).

Air Force Lt. Gen. Michael V. Hayden, head of the National Security Agency, and retired Adm. William O. Studeman, a former NSA director and former CIA deputy director, are regarded as highly qualified for the job.

Two retired senators who served on the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence -- Warren B. Rudman (R-N.H.) and Fred D. Thompson (R-Tenn.) -- are considered long-shot candidates for CIA director. But Thompson, a sometime actor who now appears in the television series "Law and Order," has one unusual attribute: He already played the CIA director in the 1987 Kevin Costner movie "No Way Out."

http://iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news_en.pl?l=en&y=2003&m=08&d=04&a=6

[DoctorZIn]

U.S. Cooperating with Shiites in Iraq

August 04, 2003
World Tribune.com
worldtribune.com

The United States is apparently cooperating with Shi'ite insurgents in helping quell attacks against the military in Iraq, according to a new report.

The report in Middle East Intelligence Bulletin said the U.S. military might be cooperating with the Islamic Call Party, or Hizb Al Daawa Al Islamiya, regarded as having been one of the most formidable opponents of the former Iraqi regime of Saddam Hussein. The report said Washington might be acquiring information from Al Daawa on insurgents, particularly in the Shi'ite community.

Little is known of Al Daawa's organizational structure. But the group has been credited with numerous attacks on the Saddam regime, including seven attempts to assassinate the president and the near-fatal shooting of his son, Uday, Middle East Newsline reported. Uday and Qusay were killed in a U.S. military strike in Mosul in July.

"There are also some indications that the party may be cooperating with the United States in rooting out armed resistance," the report said. "A recent statement by an anti-American Iraqi nationalist group accused Al Daawa of treason for 'informing the occupation forces about the resistance forces.'"

The report said the Shi'ite group differs from most of the emerging movements in Iraq. Al Daawa has expressed its opposition to a hasty U.S. withdrawal from Iraq and criticized the imposition of Islamic law in Shi'ite areas.

"Hizb Al Daawa has proved itself to be an adaptable and resilient ideological movement and activist network," the report, authored by Iranian analyst Mahan Abedin, said. "Its main challenge will be transforming itself from a secretive cell-based organization into a popular political party."

Al Daawa, regarded as the oldest Shi'ite political movement in Iraq, has refused to formally cooperate with the United States and did not join the anti-Saddam coalition organized by Washington. But in January 2003 Al Daawa leader Ibrahim Al Jaafari traveled to the United States and met presidential adviser Zalmay Khalilzad.

The report said Al Daawa, which attacked U.S. interests in the 1980s, has emerged in central and southern Iraq and organized the first demonstrations against the U.S. military presence in the city of Nasseriya.

At the same time, Al Daawa was said to have rejected Iranian attempts to dominate the Shi'ite community in Iraq.

"For the United States, Al Daawa represents both peril and promise," the report said. "While the movement has refused to endorse American intervention in Iraq, it has also refused to subordinate itself to Iran.

http://www.worldtribune.com/worldtribune/

[DoctorZIn]

U.S. Cooperating with Shiites in Iraq

August 04, 2003
World Tribune.com

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/957730/posts?page=26#26

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail me”

[dandelion]

BUMP for Iran - may things change for the better soon!

[DoctorZIn]

Iran Warns Of Possible Oil Price Collapse

August 04, 2003
Dow Jones Newswires
Nasdaq Headlines

LONDON -- Iran's oil minister says oil prices could collapse if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries doesn't get cooperation from non-OPEC countries once Iraqi crude exports reach significant levels.

"Production increases by non-OPEC countries and a failure by OPEC to cut output while Iraqi oil returns to the market will see oil prices collapsing," OPEC's official news agency, Opecna, reported Iranian Petroleum Minister Bijan Namdar Zangeneh as saying.

He said the speed and extent of Iraq's return to the oil markets remains unclear.

"It is impossible at present to exactly project the future shape of Iraqi (oil) production, but OPEC will decide on the Organization's output in case of any change in Iraq's production," the Iranian News Agency IRNA quoted him as saying.

OPEC is scheduled to meet in Vienna on Sept. 24 to review the market and supply and demand forecasts, in its bid to keep prices within the group's target range of $22-$28 a barrel for the OPEC basket of seven crudes.

Iraq's oil production is estimated to be around 1 million barrels a day, compared with its pre-war capacity of 2.8 million b/d.

http://iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news_en.pl?l=en&y=2003&m=08&d=04&a=8

[DoctorZIn]

Intelligence Officer: Iran Could have Nuclear Weapons by 2005

August 04, 2003
Ha'aretz
Ha'aretz Service and Reuters

Iran will soon complete its program for achieving a basic ability to create nuclear weapons that will be operational by 2005, Israel Radio quoted a senior military intelligence officer as telling the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday.

The Los Angeles Times reported Monday that Iran appears to be in the late stages of building a nuclear bomb and has sought help from scientists in Russia, China, North Korea and Pakistan.

Shimon Briarsky, a former intelligence official in charge of Iranian affairs, urged the United States to exert "massive" diplomatic pressure on Iran to stop it from developing a nuclear bomb.

The U.S. has "a window of a year and a half, two years," Briarsky told Army Radio on Monday. "Not for military action, for diplomatic action that would start with diplomatic pressure and continue with involving the [United Nations] Security Council - massive pressure on the Iranians to destroy and neutralize what they have attained."

Citing its own three-month investigation into Iran's clandestine nuclear capacity, the Times said it had strong evidence Iran's commercial program masked a plan to become the world's next nuclear power and it was "much closer to producing a bomb than Iraq ever was."

Iran has consistently denied it has plans to build nuclear weapons and has said its program is for peaceful civilian use.

The Times, in the story from Vienna, said it was unclear when Iran might produce its first atomic weapons. Some experts thought two to three years was likely while others believed the Iranian government had probably not given a final go-ahead.

In Vienna, a spokesman for the International Atomic Energy Agency declined to comment on the story. "We do not comment on media reports," spokesman Lothar Wedekind told Reuters.

The story cited a confidential report by the French government in May it said concluded Iran was "surprisingly close" to having enriched uranium or plutonium for a bomb.

Reuters last month reported that UN nuclear inspectors found traces of enriched uranium in environmental samples taken during recent inspections in Iran.

Foreign intelligence officials told the Times the CIA had briefed them on a contingency plan for U.S. air and missile attacks against Iranian nuclear installations.

"It would be foolish not to present the commander in chief with all of the options, including that one," one of the officials was quoted as saying. The CIA declined comment on such a plan to the paper.

The newspaper said North Korean military scientists were recently monitored entering Iranian nuclear facilities and were assisting in the design of a nuclear warhead.

A Middle Eastern intelligence official was also quoted as saying Pakistan's role in helping Iran develop a nuclear program was "bigger from the beginning than we thought."

Russian scientists, sometimes traveling to Iran under false identities and working without their government's approval, were also helping to complete a special reactor that could produce weapons-grade plutonium, the paper said.

Tehran has also imported 1.8 tons of nuclear material from China in 1991 and processed some of it to manufacture uranium metal, the report said.

Another indicator Iran was in the late stages of weapons development was the fact that Tehran recently approached European companies to buy devices that could manipulate large volumes of radio-active material, technology to forge uranium metal and plutonium and switches that could trigger a nuclear weapon.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=325516&contrassID=1&subContrassID=8&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y

[DoctorZIn]

Intelligence Officer: Iran Could have Nuclear Weapons by 2005

August 04, 2003
Ha'aretz
Ha'aretz Service and Reuters

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/957730/posts?page=30#30

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail me”

[DoctorZIn]

Iran to Keep al-Qaida Captives

August 04, 2003
Toronto Star
The Associated Press

TEHRAN -- Iran said today it won't hand over its senior al-Qaida captives to the United States and denied reports it hopes to swap the detainees for U.S.-held Iranian opposition figures.

"We hand over al-Qaida operatives who belong to friendly countries or countries we have signed extradition treaties (with). We don't have an extradition treaty with the United States," government spokesman Abdollah Ramezanzadeh told reporters.

Iranian officials confirmed for the first time last month that the country is holding "a large number of small and big elements of al-Qaida." Tehran did not identify them.

Ramezanzadeh also refused to name any of the detainees, and rejected reports that Tehran may swap al-Qaida members with leaders of the Iraq-based armed Iranian opposition group, the People's Mujahedeen, who are under U.S. control in Iraq.

"We will take members of the hypocrites (Iran's reference to People's Mujahedeen) from America if they offer, but there is no talk of swap. We don't treat the issue of terrorism selectively, nor do we make deals," Ramezanzadeh said.

U.S. officials have said intelligence suggests that al-Qaida figures in Iran include Saif al-Adl, a top al-Qaida agent possibly connected to the May 12 bombings in Riyadh; Abu Mohammed al-Masri, wanted in connection with the bombings of two U.S. Embassies in East Africa in 1998; Abu Musab Zarqawi, whom some U.S. officials describe as the key link between al-Qaida and Saddam Hussein; and Saad bin Laden, the son of al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.

Many al-Qaida operatives are believed to have fled to Iran after the overthrow of the Taliban regime in neighbouring Afghanistan in late 2001.

Iran said earlier it was holding talks with foreign intelligence services, including Britain's, over the fate of detained al-Qaida members. Iran has also said it would hand over to Saudi Arabia any Saudis among the detained suspects.

Earlier this year, Iran said it had extradited more than 500 al-Qaida members to their homelands in Arab, European and African countries.

The United States last month repeated its accusations that Iran and Syria harbour terrorists, a charge both deny.


http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?GXHC_gx_session_id_=a1a5ad796521c5a6&pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1059994927382&call_pageid=968332188492&col=968705899037

[DoctorZIn]

Iran to Keep al-Qaida Captives

August 04, 2003
Toronto Star
The Associated Press

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/957730/posts?page=32#32

"If you want on or off this Iran ping list, Freepmail me”

[AdmSmith]

More on al-Da'wah:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/947630/posts?page=31#31

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Iraq's oil production is our bargaining chip.

Theirs seems to be the Al-Queda guys they say they have!

[DoctorZIn]

Japan Ignores US On Iran Oil Deal

04.08.2003 08:38

Iran and Japan are continuing their negotiations about the $2 billion development of the Azadegan oil field.

There was no initial deal within the deadline due to US pressure to block the venture.

Iran wanted to keep the door open for several Japanese companies but it is not clear when a deal can be struck.

It is expected that negotiations could be closed by the end of the year. However, Japan is still afraid of repercussions from Washington.

http://www.neftegaz.ru/english/lenta/show.php?id=38301

[Doc On The Bay]

Many of Us Agree with You, & Follow events in Iran with Great Interest.

BUT

You Present us with TOO MUCH "VERBIAGE!!"

MAKE YOUR POINT, & then "Document It" with Lesser Posts.

MOST OF US are "On Your Side!!"

"The Details," while Interesting, are NOT as Important as the "Salient Points!!"

PLEASE, SIR, "Give Us the "Skinney," & report the Supporting Facts--in Detail--Later!!

You're Doing Good!!--just give Us a While to "Absorb" "The Details" AFTER you "Hit Us" with "The Good Stuff!!"

Doc

[nuconvert]

Hi.

Did someone call me?

[nuconvert]

This daily thread provides a central place where those interested in the events in Iran can find the best news and commentary.

Please continue to join us here, post your news stories and COMMENTS to this thread.

Thanks for all the help.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Re #20

Here is a link:

Report: Grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini slams Iranian regime

the excerpts from the post:

...Meanwhile, the newspaper said a special unit from Iran's elite Revolutionary Guard, or Pasdaran, entered last week the Iraqi territory in search of Hussein Khomeini. The Revolutionary Guard's deputy commander, Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, was quoted as saying that Hussein Khomeini should be eliminated.