Posted on 08/09/2003 5:27:03 AM PDT by Pikamax
Scientists devise formula for happy marriage Equation predicts bliss
Chris Lackner National Post, with files from news services
Saturday, August 09, 2003 ADVERTISEMENT
The secret to a successful marriage can be found in a mathematical formula, according to American researchers, who believe they can use equations to predict a newlywed couple's chances for marital bliss.
Researchers at the University of Washington have devised two formulas that they say allows them to predict, with a 94% success rate, whether a new marriage will last. And all it takes is a 15-minute interview.
The formulas used to detect newlywed joy or disaster were publicly presented for the first time this week by mathematician Dr. James Murray, who spoke at the Mathematical Biology Conference at Dundee University in Scotland.
The presentation was based on a 10-year study of 700 American couples conducted by Dr. Murray and psychologist Dr. John Gottman, both from the University of Washington in Seattle.
"Positive things can be taken from [the formula]. It points out why some people are having problems and can show what action has to be taken to save the marriage," Dr. Murray said.
All the couples who participated in the experiment were initially observed by researchers during a 15-minute conversation shortly after they were married in the early 1990s.
Participants were asked to discuss contentious marital issues, such as money, sex or children. The couple's ability to discuss the issue was evaluated according to a mathematical scale that awarded positive points for good signals and negative points for bad signals.
Bad signals included rolling of the eyes, criticism or mockery of one's partner, as well as displays of coldness and negativity. Positive signs included displays of humour, positive vocal tone, smiles and affectionate gestures.
"We used an accepted psychological scoring system to award them points, such as minus three for scorn and plus two for humour," Dr. Murray said. "Then we put their points on a graph and by converting them into algebraic terms were able to make our divorce predictions.
"We didn't tell the volunteers, of course ... telling a couple their marriage is going to fail is not what they want to hear."
The results of the observations were used to develop an equation for both husbands and wives and each couple was contacted every two years to ascertain the state of their marriage. Researchers say they were able to predict the success or failure of each couple with an accuracy of almost 94%.
Other variables were taken into account during the experiment in order to determine a couple's compatibility, Dr. Murray said, including the effect an individual's contribution to the conversation had on the the mood of his or her spouse.
"The key thing that comes out of it is that we have been able to calculate how people interact," Dr. Murray said.
"For example, the wife might be a conflict avoider and the husband might be volatile. That marriage would not survive."
Our society is marriage-obsessed and naturally inclined to believe in marital perfection, said Julie Rak, an English professor and popular culture expert at the University of Alberta.
Ms. Rak said people often make decisions in their lives according to a formula our culture dictates, including when to get married, when to have kids and custom-based beliefs such monogamy and the search for one ideal partner.
"We learn from a very early age that there there is only one person in the world for us, which is mathematically ridiculous," Ms. Rak said.
"Marriage is not like that and people are always not predictable and change over time."
"I think we're taught that marriage is an ideal that we aspire to," she said.
"The reality is quite different. Divorce rates are much higher than they once were."
THE MATHEMATICS OF MARRIAGE:
Wife's equation
w(t+1)=a+r1*w(t)+ihw[h(t)]
w= wife, h= husband, t= time a= a constant representing the wife's state of mind when she is not with her husband. r1*w(t)= represents how easy it is to change her state of mind when she is in conversation with her husband. ihw= "influence function" -- a measure of the influence that a husband's remarks have on his wife. h(t)= the husband's "score" during their 15-minute conversation. w(t+1)=how the wife has reacted to her husband's conversation -- the higher the number then the greater the likelihood of divorce
Husband's equation
H(t+1)=b+r2*h(t)+iwh[w(t)]
b= a constant representing the husband's state of mind when he is not with his wife. r2*w(t)= represents how easy it is for him to change his state of mind when he is in conversation with his wife. iwh= "influence function" -- a measure of the influence that a wife's remarks have on her husband. w(t)= the wife's score during their 15-minute conversation. H(t+1)= how the husband has reacted to his wife's conversation -- the higher the number then the greater the likelihood of divorce
I often wonder the same thing.
Just how much $$$$ do you suppose was spent to find out that if a couple could not come to agreement, or even engage in polite discussion, of issues central to marriage, that they might possibly have trouble down the road?
And since everyone else is making disclosures, my wife and I said "I do" 19 years ago. We meant it, too.
To be fair, that was one of the funniest lines in the whole (admittedly lightweight) movie! Have you ever really listened to the lyrics? It's a song about two people who have realized they are in love, but are already married to other people, so they can't do anything about it. Who in their right mind would use that as a wedding song????
Which, in turn, probably means that you've been happily married for twenty years now, right? ;)
Rolling Eyes....Who's wedding didn't include singing LOVE BOAT in 2 part harmony? But did you do the Fandango down the isle after it?
I have since been told thats a sure fire send off that works like glue. I know because thats the part that I missed..at least twice.. which further explains why ...my alimony checks are being mailed on a Postage Meter from Pitney Bowes... o<]8^)~
It doesn't work the other way around though....shrugging shoulders, and waving spatula ..Fatherofatleast5.. :^)
My wife does not work, and I leave for work at 530 AM and return at 615 PM. I am on a four / ten workweek and do most of the cooking on the weekends. Also do some cooking during the week after work, because I LOVE to cook. My daughter and her friends just love my cooking!
Absurd what people will believe. Always looking for a cool, clincial approach to solve problems. I didn't know you could apply that to love. LOL!
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