Iranian Alert -- August 29, 2003 -- LIVE THREAD PING LIST

Israel FM: Iran to Reach Nuclear Point of No Return Within One Year

August 29, 2003
Haaretz and Reuters
Hamza Hendawi

Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom said Friday that Iran is likely to reach the point of no return for nuclear capability within one year and called on Russia to stop providing assistance, Israel Radio reported.

Shalom made the comments to Deputy Russian Foreign Minister Yuri Federtov who is visiting Israel.

A nuclear capable Iran will change the strategic balance in the region, he added.

In comments aired earlier Friday, the head of the United Nations nuclear watchdog said that Iran had shopped for nuclear components on the international black market and called on Tehran to be more "proactive" and "transparent."

In an interview on the BBC television program Hardtalk, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei also said that Iran's nuclear program had been going on far longer than the agency had realized.

Although he was not certain of the countries that made the equipment Iran had acquired on the black market, ElBaradei said he had a "pretty good idea" which ones they were.

"It could be one country, it could be more than one country," ElBaradei said. "They (Iran) told us they have got a lot of that stuff from the black market. It is through intermediaries. It is not directly from the country."

Media reports have named Pakistan, a nuclear weapons state that has refused to sign the nuclear 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), as one of countries whose nuclear technology Iran is believed to be using.

Although he stopped short of accusing Tehran of lying to the UN agency, ElBaradei said Iran had failed to give the IAEA a complete picture of its nuclear programme, which Washington says is merely a front for a secret atomic weapons program.

"They have not really been fully transparent in telling us in advance what was going on," ElBaradei said in the interview, recorded on Thursday and aired on Friday.

Asked if he believed Iran was running a secret weapons program, ElBaradei said: "It might be, it might not be."

"I need to really get the Iranians to tell me the full, complete story," he said. "And I would like Iran to be more proactive, more transparent."

He said that it would have been much easier to verify Iran's insistence its nuclear programme is peaceful if it had given the IAEA a complete picture of its atomic plans from the beginning.

"It would have been easier for us to complete our job if we knew what was going on as early as the mid 1980s," ElBaradei said. "Now we have to go... 20 years back."

He repeated his call for Iran to quickly sign a protocol giving the IAEA the right to carry out intrusive, short notice inspections across the country.

"The international community's getting very concerned, very impatient," ElBaradei said about the situation in Iran.

He also agreed that countries such as Iran, pre-war Iraq and North Korea - what U.S. President George W. Bush has branded the "axis of evil" - have had a history of misleading the world about their nuclear programs.

"They have been giving the international community the runaround," he said.

The IAEA Board of Governors meets next month to discuss the agency's recent inspections in Iran. The United States is pushing the board to declare Tehran in violation of its NPT nuclear safeguards obligations and report it to the UN Security Council, which can impose economic sanctions.

Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said on Thursday the Islamic Republic was ready to start talks on allowing snap UN inspections of its nuclear sites.

"We have written to the director-general (of the International Atomic Energy Agency) saying we are ready to start negotiations on the Additional Protocol," Kharrazi told CNN.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/pages/ShArt.jhtml?itemNo=334722&contrassID=1&subContrassID=1&sbSubContrassID=0&listSrc=Y

Moscow Looking for Solid Evidence in Iran

St. Petersburg Times - By Simon Saradzhyan
Aug 29, 2003

MOSCOW - Russia will not suspend construction of the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran unless the UN International Atomic Energy Agency finds solid evidence that Iran is secretly pursuing a nuclear-weapons program, the Nuclear Power Ministry said Thursday.

"There have to be solid reasons presented before one suspends cooperation," a ministry official said in an interview, speaking on condition of anonymity.

IAEA has prepared a confidential report confirming that its inspectors had found particles of weapons-grade uranium at a nuclear facility at Natanz, the Western press reported earlier this week.

Iran's Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi on Thursday confirmed that inspectors had found traces of enriched uranium in Natanz, Reuters reported.

The leak of the report prompted Washington, which has accused Teheran of seeking nuclear weapons, to renew its call for Russia to suspend construction of the Bushehr plant.

According to the Russian official, however, the recently found particles of highly enriched uranium do not qualify as a smoking gun, given the possibility and Iran's assurances that the substance was brought in on equipment that was previously imported.

Thus, the official said, Russia does not expect the IAEA at its Sept. 8 meeting to find Iran in non-compliance with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which would require the nuclear watchdog to submit the issue to the UN Security Council for consideration.

He repeated the ministry's position that Russia's nuclear cooperation with Iran is "transparent" and adheres to the nonproliferation treaty and other international nuclear safeguards. He said that Russia will complete construction of the first reactor of the Bushehr plant in 2004 but may send the first batch of nuclear fuel to Iran this year.

Representatives of the Nuclear Power Ministry and their Iranian counterparts will meet in September to sign an agreement that would require Iran to ship all spent nuclear fuel from Bushehr back to Russia.

During the meeting, the Russian side will again call upon Iran to sign an additional protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty that would enable the IAEA to conduct random inspections of its nuclear facilities, the official said. However, the ministry-controlled contractors will complete Bushehr's first reactor, construction of which was started but then abandoned by Germany's Siemens, even if Iran refuses, the official said. Iran has agreed to sign the protocol, but on condition it is given broad access to peaceful nuclear technologies as stipulated in the treaty.

While its contractors are busy completing the first reactor, the Nuclear Power Ministry advised Iran not to complete the second reactor. A feasibility study, which was conducted by the ministry earlier this year, shows that it would be more cost-efficient to build a new reactor from scratch, the official said.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_2022.shtml

Argentines Skeptical Over Impact of Ex-Iranian Official's Arrest Over 1994 Bombing

Voice of America - By Brian Byrnes
Aug 29, 2003

BUENOS AIRES - The former Iranian ambassador to Argentina is to appear Friday in a London court in connection with the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. The arrest has sparked an intense war of words between officials in Buenos Aires, London, and Tehran. But some people question whether the arrest will advance the nine-year investigation.

Hadi Soleimanpour, Iran's former ambassador to Argentina, was detained August 21 in northern England, where he was studying at a local university on a student visa.

His arrest was a result of a warrant issued by Argentine judge Juan Jose Galeano, who has been investigating the attack on the Argentina Israeli Mutual Association - known by its Spanish language acronym as AMIA - since it occurred in 1994.

The car bomb that exploded at the AMIA headquarters in Buenos Aires killed 85 people and injured hundreds. More than nine years later no one has been held responsible.

Laura Ginsberg's husband Jose died in the bombing, leaving her to raise their two young children alone. Since the attack, Ms. Ginsberg has fought hard to bring the perpetrators of the blast to justice. But she says that the arrest of the former Iranian ambassador is not a significant breakthrough in an investigation that has been ineffective from the start.

"This man, Soleimanpour, is in the investigation since the beginning, his name appeared in the case since the beginning of the investigation and it is hard to believe that now Galeano could gather all the information to arrest him," she said.

But apparently sufficient evidence does exist, as Judge Galeano has issued arrest warrants for a dozen Iranian officials who were in Argentina at the time of the explosion.

Police in Brussels detained Iranian diplomat Saied Baghban in connection with the AMIA case, but released him after several hours of questioning because he has diplomatic immunity.

So far, Mr. Soleimanpour is the only Iranian in police custody, but his arrest and possible extradition to Argentina has sparked a bitter debate between British, Iranian, and Argentine leaders. Iranian President Mohammad Khatami threatened "strong action" against Britain if Mr. Soleimanpour is not released.

The United States and Israel have long suspected Iran of being behind the attack, a charge that Iran has repeatedly denied.

It is the diplomatic dispute that the AMIA lawyers are paying close attention to. AMIA attorney Miguel Bronfman says Tehran could influence the British extradition case.

"Yes, we are afraid of that. In these cases, this is not just a judicial case, it is a political case. Well, Iran is a strong state in the international scene and ... well, I think that apart from the judicial steps, Great Britain will pay attention to Iran's requests," he said.

American journalist Joe Goldman agrees. He has written extensively on the AMIA case and says pressure from Iranian officials, coupled with claims that Judge Galeano has destroyed files and bribed witnesses will make the extradition of Hadi Soleimanpour and others Iranians difficult.

"I think Soleimanpour is somebody who might know something, though, about what happened, and is somebody who might prove to be a very interesting witness," said Mr. Goldman. "Unfortunately, due to the really reprehensible conduct of this judge, I think any kind of an extradition request is going to be denied."

For Laura Ginsberg this is a harsh reality that will continue to prolong her search for the truth. "This is part of a political maneuver where the need to have an international responsibility [for] the crime is the first priority here in Argentina," she said.

While leaders in Tehran, London, and Buenos Aires debate the political and legal issues in this highly sensitive case, Argentine investigators will continue to press for the arrest and extradition of Iranian officials in connection with the worst act of terrorism in the country's history.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_2024.shtml

Preventing a Nuclear Iran Is a Delicate Task

Los Angeles Times - By Maggie Farley and Douglas Frantz
Aug 29, 2003

Discovery of weapons- grade material adds momentum to effort. U.S. presses the U.N. to declare that Tehran has violated a treaty.

UNITED NATIONS — Following a report by the U.N.'s nuclear agency that particles of highly enriched uranium were found in Iran, diplomats are debating how to apply enough pressure to keep the country in line with the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty without pushing so hard that Tehran rejects international oversight altogether.

"If there is a lesson learned from North Korea, it is that we have to stop these countries before they get the bomb," a United Nations official said Wednesday, as talks on denuclearizing North Korea were underway in Beijing. "But how do you stop a country from reaching that point?"

The United States is pushing for the International Atomic Energy Agency to declare Iran in noncompliance with its treaty agreements at the organization's 35-nation board meeting Sept. 8 — the first step toward possible sanctions.

The confidential U.N. report, which details new evidence of the presence of weapons-grade material at a nuclear facility in Iran and shows several reversals of position by officials there, has added momentum to the effort.

The European Union and others may now be convinced that there is a "pattern of noncompliance," a Western diplomat said. "We need to strengthen the IAEA's hand by reporting the pattern to the Security Council and pressing Iran to cooperate more fully."

Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said Thursday that his country was ready to start talks on an additional protocol to the treaty, allowing surprise inspections of any nuclear facility.

"We do not have enriched uranium, and we do not have a program to develop nuclear weapons," he told CNN during a trip to Japan to discuss oil field development.

Although U.S. and IAEA officials welcome the step, some worry that talks could drag on at a time when experts say Iran may be one to three years away from developing a nuclear weapon.

But if Iran does not prove to be immediately accommodating, the Security Council could impose tough economic and diplomatic sanctions, ban all nuclear assistance to Iran and even call for the return of all nuclear equipment received from other countries.

Many countries are still not convinced that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons, diplomats say. Russia, China and about 10 developing nations on the IAEA board are focusing instead on parts of the report that note Iran has been more cooperative recently.

In the meantime, an analysis of another set of nuclear samples due to be completed in October may provide definitive proof of whether Iran has enriched uranium for military purposes.

Inspectors took the samples from Kalaye Electric Co. early this month, after Iran blocked their first attempt to visit the site in March. Inspectors noted major renovations at the facility, changes that officials suspect were an attempt to sanitize it before inspections.

Positive test results would show that Iran has enriched uranium or tested nuclear materials, both of which the government denies doing.

The results will be presented at the next board meeting of the IAEA in November.

"The central issue is: Has Iran enriched uranium in Iran?" said David Albright, president of the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. "The IAEA needs more time to determine that, but Iran really should provide that information themselves."

For the IAEA, the most important consideration right now is to keep Iran engaged so the agency can find the answers to urgent questions.

Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA director-general, has said privately that his first priority was to understand what Iran had been doing in recent years with its nuclear program, according to the Western diplomat. The additional treaty protocol will deal with future inspections, making it essential now to have a clear understanding of the Iranian program, he said.

"If they made some mistakes in reporting imports but are truly not trying to produce a nuclear weapon, the IAEA is the only one who can prove them innocent," a U.N. official said.

"The important thing is to pull them back from the nuclear threshold. If there is too much pressure, too many penalties, they may decide to withdraw from the treaty, and then there is no access at all."

Indeed, the IAEA's investigation has started the slow unraveling of Iran's story about its nuclear program.

"I count six reversals of position by Iran," said the Western diplomat. "This report is not a report of cooperation, but one that demonstrates the skill of the IAEA at getting to the facts. The only time Iran changed its position was when it was confronted by irrefutable evidence."

Iran claims that the traces of highly enriched, weapons-grade uranium the inspectors found at the Natanz nuclear facility in central Iran came from contaminated components imported from another country. The IAEA has asked Tehran to identify the suppliers to check that claim, but Iran has refused.

The report also details Iran's pursuit of two other production techniques for nuclear material. Iran previously said it was not involved with heavy-water technology, which produces weapons-grade plutonium. But Iranian officials admitted that work on heavy-water technology had been underway for more than a decade.

In another reversal, Iranian authorities also acknowledged this month that scientists had used nuclear material to conduct research on uranium conversion after repeatedly telling the IAEA over the last seven months that it had never used nuclear material in research and development, the report says. The research was apparently aimed at developing uranium metal, which has not been known to be used in Iran's commercial nuclear program but is regarded as essential for building a nuclear weapon.

"Uranium metal is not something that would normally be needed for the type of reactor that Iran is building," the Western diplomat said. "It's normally associated with things that go boom."

The IAEA report does not link the new developments to any weapons effort, disappointing those pushing for an immediate halt to Iran's nuclear work. But it says investigations are still underway.

"We believe the report to be objective and contain all the facts," IAEA spokeswoman Melissa Fleming said in a phone interview from Vienna. "We are determined to have answers to the outstanding questions in the next few weeks or months."

Farley reported from the United Nations and Frantz from Istanbul, Turkey.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-iran29aug29,1,6982728.story?coll=la-headlines-world

Ayatollah Mohammed Baqer al-Hakim

Reuters - World News
Aug 29, 2003

NAJAF - Ayatollah Mohammed Baqer al-Hakim, killed by a car bomb in the Iraqi shrine city of Najaf on Friday, was the long-exiled leader of one of the main Shi'ite Muslim groups jockeying for power in postwar Iraq.

Hakim had sought to avoid confrontation with U.S.-led forces occupying Iraq since the invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein, and authorised his brother to serve on the U.S.-appointed 25-member Iraqi Governing Council set up in July.

But he said in a interview with Reuters in June that Iraq's Shi'ite majority could turn against the U.S.-led occupiers if they were not given political compensation for decades of persecution under Saddam's dictatorship.

"They gave the justification that they came in the name of liberation but now they are an occupying force. That is what is making people angry," the black-turbaned cleric said. "If the people lose their patience, there will be a social uproar."

But Hakim, 63, who headed the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), said there was no need at present for Iraqis to use force to end the occupation.

Tortured under the former Iraqi government, hosted and funded by Iran's clerical leaders and cautiously courted by Washington, Hakim returned to Najaf from Tehran on May 12.

Among his first acts was to pay an emotional visit to the Imam Ali shrine, a walled compound of gold dome and tilework enclosing the tomb of the Prophet Mohammad's son-in-law.

"I am not here to promote myself," he told his rapturous supporters, insisting there was unity among clerics in Najaf.

SCIRI officials said the car bomb that killed Hakim, who was among up to 20 dead, exploded as he drove away from the shrine after Friday prayers. No group has claimed responsibility.

"Ayatollah Mohammed Baqer al-Hakim became a martyr," said his nephew Mohsen Hakim, who is a SCIRI official, in Tehran.

On Sunday, the murdered man's uncle, Ayatollah Mohammed Saeed al-Hakim, was slightly wounded in a bomb attack at his office in Najaf which killed three security guards.

Some SCIRI supporters blamed that attack, which was close to the Imam Ali mosque, on followers of rival Shi'ite leader Moqtada al-Sadr. His group denied the accusation.

When Hakim returned to Najaf in May, supporters of the rival group moved through the crowd with posters of Sadr's father, Mohammad Sadeq al-Sadr, an Iraqi cleric assassinated in 1999.

"The ones who were abroad living in luxury cannot be real representatives," said Sheikh Adnan al-Shahmani, a spokesman for Moqtada al-Sadr. "This goes for all the opposition who lived outside."

A senior cleric like his father, Hakim was jailed and tortured in 1972. He was jailed again five years later. Five of his brothers and more than a dozen other relatives were killed during three decades of struggle against Saddam's Baath party.

Hakim eventually fled in 1980 to Iran, where Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini was setting up a Shi'ite Islamic state.

Soon after Hakim's arrival the young Islamic Republic was attacked by Iraq, sparking an eight-year war between the two oil powers. United by their Shi'ite beliefs and hatred for Saddam, Iran's new clerical leaders and Hakim formed a strong bond.

Weapons and training were provided for SCIRI's armed militia -- said to number about 10,000 -- known as the Badr Forces, which crossed from Iran and briefly occupied Basra in the Iraqi Shi'ite uprising after the 1991 Gulf War.

Hakim was believed to have been close to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, but SCIRI was also in touch with the United States and its allies long before the war on Iraq was launched in March this year.

He distanced himself from previous vows to establish an Islamic Republic in Iraq, saying in February that he favoured an elected, broad-based government to replace Saddam.

"For more than 20 years I've been opposed to the racial, ethnic and sectarian discrimination in Iraq," he told Reuters.

The cleric was coy about what part he would like to play in postwar Iraq, saying this was up to the Iraqi people.

"I will perform whatever role they want from me," he said, his long, bearded face breaking into a mischievous smile.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_2027.shtml

Diplomat Extradition Hearing Threatens Iranian Relations

Scotsman - By Vanessa Allen
Aug 29, 2003

An Iranian diplomat accused of helping to mastermind a deadly terrorist bombing was today refused bail, despite his government offering £500,000 for his surety.

The Argentinian government has asked for Hade Soleimanpour – who was Tehran’s ambassador in Buenos Aires at the time of the 1994 bombing – to be extradited from Britain to face charges.

But lawyers for the “career diplomat” said the Iranian government was prepared to “stake its own credibility” on the case, and was offering the half a million pounds as surety.

The case has threatened to sour relations between London and Tehran.

Iranian president Ali Mohammed Khatami has demanded the release of Soleimanpour – who is still employed by the Iranian ministry of foreign affairs – and an apology from the British Government.

His foreign minister and deputy foreign minister have both made personal representations to Foreign Secretary Jack Straw in the last week and Tehran has threatened to recall some of its diplomats, the extradition hearing at Bow Street Magistrates’ Court was told.

But district judge Christopher Pratt was unmoved, remanding Soleimanpour in custody until the next hearing on September 19, over fears he might abscond.

“I am very aware of the gravity of the allegations against you and the diplomatic sensitivities of the case,” he said.

“I have concluded that no amount of money proposed or conditions put forward will satisfy me.”

Argentina claims that Soleimanpour, 47, was involved in planning and commissioning the attack, and that he provided information about the preferred location and timing of the bombing.

There were 85 people killed and more than 100 injured when the blast destroyed the headquarters of the Argentine Jewish Mutual Association and the Delegation of Argentine Jewish Association in July 1994.

The seven storey building was the main community centre for Jews in Argentina, which has the largest Jewish population in Latin America.

Robert Bland, for the Argentine government, alleged that Soleimanpour “used his diplomatic position to facilitate and assist that operation”.

Mr Bland told the court: “It is clear that the Government of Iran is exceptionally upset about this and, with great respect, I would say that £500,000 – given that it is coming from the government of Iran – is not a great sum for them to lose.”

Soleimanpour’s lawyer, Alun Jones QC – who led General Pinochet’s legal team in his extradition case – said the case had caused “outrage” in Iran.

It was “very serious” for a serving member of another country’s diplomatic services to be arrested on a provisional warrant, he said, adding that Home Secretary David Blunkett should have considered the case first.

“In this very serious matter there is no evidence at all that he is a fugitive, that he will abscond, and there is no possible evidential or other basis to impugn the good faith of the government of Iran,” he said.

Stamps in Soleimanpour’s passport showed he was not in Buenos Aires at the time of the bombing, Mr Jones said, adding that he left Argentina on June 30, 1994, and returned on July 25.

The bombing was on July 18.

Mr Jones said Soleimanpour was well aware of Argentine claims that Tehran had ordered and financed the bombing, but had chosen to spend much of his time since the attack in countries from which he could be extradited.

He came to Britain in 2002 on an ordinary passport, without diplomatic status, and stayed in the country despite reports in March last year that Buenos Aires was seeking the extradition of dozens of Iranian officials in connection with the car bombing.

Mr Jones said police visits to his client’s home before his arrest last week could be interpreted as encouraging Soleimanpour to leave the country before Argentina asked for his extradition.

He added: “Mr Soleimanpour was obviously encouraged by these meetings to think he was being shown an open door by the British authorities to leave in a diplomatically sensitive case.”

An extradition warrant was issued last Thursday and Soleimanpour was arrested at his home in Durham, where he has lived for more than a year while studying environmental studies at Durham University.

He was granted a sabbatical by Iran’s diplomatic service to carry out post-graduate work at the university, where his wife works as a biologist. Their two children, aged seven and 13, attend British schools.

Mrs Soleimanpour refused to comment on the case, or to give her name.

She left the courthouse to a torrent of abuse from anti-Iranian government protesters, who called her the wife of a murderer and terrorist.

She was arm-in-arm with her friend and colleague Margaret Pullen, who gave evidence in court that the family were happy and settled in Durham.

The university worker said she was prepared to put forward her personal savings of £5,000 as additional surety for Soleimanpour’s bail.

But her offer, the Iranian government’s £500,000, another £200,000 from Soleimanpour’s parents and the promise of 40,000 US dollars from the diplomat’s Swiss bank account were not enough for Mr Pratt, who remanded him in custody until the next hearing.

The court had heard that the extradition process could take years to complete.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_2033.shtml

Pakistan, Iran blast nuclear cooperation accusation

AFP - World News (via Yahoo)
Aug 29, 2003

ISLAMABAD (AFP) - Pakistan and Iran jointly rejected accusations of nuclear cooperation as malicious propaganda.

"I reject the false report that Pakistan has been helping Iran's nuclear programme," visiting Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi told a joint news conference with his Pakistani counterpart Khurshid Mahmud Kasuri that followed an hour of talks on bilateral relations and regional security issues.

Kharazi said Friday he explained in detail during his meetings with President Pervez Musharraf and Prime Minister Zafarullah Jamali that Iran's nuclear programme was completely peace-minded.

"We do not have any programme for nuclear weapons. Contrary to that, we believe that a nuclear free zone has to be established in Middle East and even in the subcontinent," Kharazi said.

Kasuri said Pakistan supported the right of Iran to develop its "peaceful nuclear programme, concomittant to its adherence of its obligation under the arms control and disarmament agreements that it is party to."

"Pakistan has never supplied in any manner whatsoever any assistance for Iran's nuclear programme," Kasuri said.

"These reports were part of a malicious smear campaign against Pakistan and Iran."

Iran has come under increasing international pressure over its nuclear programme, particularly from the United States, which suspects Tehran has a nuclear weapons agenda.

Kharazi said Tehran was cooperating fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog, and played down UN report on the discovery of two types of highly-enriched nuclear particles at facilities in Iran.

"Our nuclear programme is totally indigenous but we have acquired some components of this facility from outside.

"Now we have learned that those components brought from outside were contaminated and this is what we have explained to IAEA and I am sure they will come to the same conclusion when they finalise their analysis."

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_2028.shtml

"Crisis of Legitimacy" Could Prompt Authoritarian Political Alternative

Eurasianet - By Afshin Molavi
Aug 29, 2003

The political gridlock caused by infighting between conservative and reformist forces in Iran has fostered what analysts in Tehran characterize as a "crisis of legitimacy." Growing popular apathy towards the political process is preparing the ground for a possible authoritarian alternative, some observers go on to warn.

Payman Morteza, a 26 year-old graphic designer, is one member of Iran’s legion of disillusioned. Morteza recalls how he was optimistic about Iran’s future after attending a 1997 campaign rally for the reform-minded cleric Mohammad Khatami, who went on to capture the presidency. "He spoke of freedom, of individual choice, of toleration," Morteza said. "It was an entirely new language for the Islamic Republic. We were so accustomed to hearing talk of revolution and sacrifice and foreign enemies."

Morteza, along with a group of friends, began campaigning for Khatami in his neighborhood. "We went into shops. We talked to people. We said: ?this man is different.’ Please vote for Khatami."

Today, six years later, Morteza ? like many Iranians ? has soured on Khatami and the reform movement, frustrated by the slow pace of change and the largely successful conservative resistance to reformist proposals. That frustration is now translating into apathy with politics.

"The reformists have been ineffective. ... I won’t bother voting in the [2004] Parliamentary elections or the [2005] Presidential elections. What’s the use? The conservatives have the real power anyway," Morteza said.

Conservatives ? who still control the key levers of power, including the instruments of coercive force ? recently mounted an aggressive assault on the tottering reform movement. They blocked reformist legislation that would liberalize Iranian elections, jailed or effectively silenced leading reformist figures, chilled pro-democracy students with violent crackdowns in recent demonstrations, and sent a clear message that they do not intend to give up power lightly. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Developments in 2003 have stirred concern among political analysts about a brewing crisis. This "crisis of legitimacy" ? the exact phrase used by several analysts in interviews with EurasiaNet -- threatens the country’s grass-roots democracy movement and could shift popular sentiment toward outside calls for regime change, or strongman alternatives, they said.

"The defeat of the reform movement has de-legitimized the government," said Morad Saghafy, editor of the prestigious Goft-o-Gu intellectual quarterly. "Before Khatami’s election, many people felt distant from the government. The reform movement brought millions of Iranians back to the regime and gave them hope that the Islamic Republic could change. The reformist failures have made many people think that the system is un-reformable. It is a double loss for the Islamic Republic."

On university campuses, in corner shops, in tree-filled parks, and wherever else Iranians gather, a blistering cynicism infects the air. "All those mullahs are the same," huffed one elderly shopkeeper in a small supermarket on Tehran’s busy Shariati Street. "They are all corrupt thieves." A shopper disagreed: "I don’t think the reformists are thieves. I think they tried, but clearly the conservatives have all the power and don’t want to give it up. So, why should we back the reformists?" Another shopper pipes in: "This system needs to be uprooted entirely. We need an entirely new regime."

Such exchanges and talk of "regime change" have become common among a people who are also frustrated by a stagnant economy, double-digit inflation, and chronic unemployment. What worries many pro-democracy analysts is that, given the despair about the lack of change, Iranians may now seek what reformists describe as unpalatable options.

"These are precisely the kind of conditions that make Iranians long for a strongman, not a democrat," explained one journalist, who asked not to be named. "That’s why there is Reza Shah nostalgia among middle-class Iranians," he said, referring to Iran’s first Pahlavi king (1925-41), who is generally remembered as an iron-fisted modernizer. Books about the former king and the Pahlavi dynasty in general sell briskly, booksellers say.

Even a few intellectuals have succumbed to the "strongman" theory. At one reception, a well-regarded historian turned to a Tehran-based political analyst and said: "Why not have a strongman? This place is such a mess that we could use a modernizing autocrat."

Ali Reza Alavitabar, a reformist publisher and academic who has been in and out of jail for his pro-democracy views, worries about such talk. "In the past six years, we have built a strong, grass-roots democracy movement," he explains. "The democratic spirit that we have instilled over the past six years have fundamentally changed the contours of the political debate, and the mindset of the average Iranian. We must continue to move forward in this direction."

Morad Saghafy agrees. "We have far more democratic-minded people in Iran today than we did six years ago and, of course, far more than we did before 1979. All of the newspapers articles, the speeches, the voting, have had an effect," he said. "This is critical because you can’t impose a democracy; you need democratic cadres."

Still, Alavitabar, Saghafy, and others admit that the conservatives have made it almost insurmountably difficult to proceed. "Politics has died," Saghafy says. "We are now simply witnessing the exertion of power."

Some Iranians have already begun looking for outside assistance. The leading pro-democracy student group, Daftar-e-Tahkim-e-Vahdat, wrote to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan, seeking UN assistance in its struggle. The letter crossed an unwritten "red line," prompting the detention at gunpoint of several leaders of the organization. (They have been freed recently, "admitting" the error if their ways). [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Talk also swirls of an American "solution." Vanna Vanucci, an Italian journalist and long-time Iran observer, was stunned when she repeatedly heard from Iranians during the US war with Iraq: "When will the Americans liberate us?"

Recently, Hossein Khomeini, a mid-ranking opposition cleric and grandson of the late Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, spoke positively of what he called "the American liberation of Iraq" and suggested that many Iranians would welcome American involvement in "Iran’s liberation."

When pressed, many Iranians admit to fearing the prospect of a US-engineered attempt to topple Iran’s existing political order. Concerns about Washington’s intentions and abilities are only growing as they witness the US troubles in reconstructing neighboring Iraq. The US woes are documented in exhaustive detail nightly on Iran’s state-run television news.

Mehrdad Serjooie, an Iranian journalist, puts it this way: "People want more political freedoms, more social freedoms, and a better economy. They just don’t know where ? or how ? they will get these things. People are searching, wondering, and many are simply retreating, leaving their destinies to the winds of fate." The trouble is, say many analysts, the conservatives are effectively controlling the direction of those winds.

Afshin Molavi, a Washington-based journalist and frequent EurasiaNet contributor, recently returned from a three week reporting trip to Iran.

http://www.daneshjoo.org/generalnews/article/publish/article_2031.shtml

29 Aug 2003 19:36:21 GMT
Iran: U.S.-led security failure behind Hakim death

(Updates with Iranian government and Supreme Leader reaction)

TEHRAN, Aug 29 (Reuters) - Iran condemned the killing on Friday of the head of a leading Iraqi Shi'ite group, which had Iranian backing, blaming his death on the failure of U.S.-led occupiers to provide security, Iranian media reported.

A senior Iranian official earlier told Reuters the killing of Mohammed Baqer Al-Hakim, who was among scores killed by a car bomb in the Iraqi city of Najaf, would only benefit those who wanted an unstable Iraq.

Hakim, head of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), had been exiled in Iran for more than two decades before returning to Iraq in May.

"The government of the Islamic Republic of Iran, while condemning this violent and blind act, holds occupying forces in Iraq directly responsible, which based on international principles are responsible for preserving security in Iraq," Iran's official IRNA news agency quoted a statement as saying.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced three days of mourning, Iran's students' news agency ISNA reported.

"The martyrdom of (Hakim)...is a grave catastrophe for the Iraqi nation and is another document of the occupiers' crimes which have imposed insecurity and chaos on Iraq with their illegitimate presence," Khamenei was quoted as saying.

Iran was officially neutral in the U.S.-led war on Iraq, but welcomed the fall of former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, who fought an eight-year war with Iran in the 1980s.

Iran has also condemned the U.S. occupation of the country, while the United States has warned Iran not to interfere in Iraq's internal affairs.

"I believe the only people to profit from his martyrdom are those who do not want a stable and independent Iraq," Iranian Vice President Mohammad Ali Abtahi told Reuters.

SCIRI had been criticised by some groups for cooperating with the U.S. military occupation and Hakim had been viewed by Washington as a stabilising influence in post-war Iraq.

"Hakim had made a few statements saying an Iranian-style theocracy was not suitable for Iraq and put distance between himself and his Iranian backers," said one diplomat in Tehran.

But some analysts said Hakim's death would be a blow to Iran, which had nurtured him and his group since the 1980s.

http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/BL2976022.htm

Ayatollah jannati: national resources should not be spent on factional disputes

Tehran, Aug 29, IRNA -- Substitute Leader of Tehran Friday Prayers
yatollah Ahmad Jannati stressed here that the national resources
should not be spent on the tug-of-war between the political factions
in the country.
Addressing thousands of worshipers gathered at the Tehran
University campus for the weekly congregational prayers, Ayatollah
Jannati touched on the recent directives given by the Supreme Leader
of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei on the need for
officials to try to create a tension-free society to contribute to the
national prosperity and progress.
Under the currently sensitive circumstances, Jannati said, those
getting involved in factional rows focus on the activities to preserve
the interests of the factions to which they belong and put into
oblivion the crucial issues.
He hoped that President Mohammad Khatami would do his best to
translate into action the recent recommendations given by the supreme
leader.
The problems facing the Iranian people could be solved through
having recourse to trust in the Almighty Allah, practicing religious
faith and consultations with experts and professionals and making
optimal use of the available resources, Jannati said.
Part of state budget is spent on insignificant tasks, he said
asking officials to mull over the proper spending of the resources.
Ayatollah jannati said the national capitals should come in
service of more productivity.
He said the officials have, as underlined previously by the
supreme leader, to adopt measures to administer the social justice, to
uppress the financial corruption and to remove any discriminatory
actions and behaviors.
He said administration of justice in the society would contribute
to the legitimization of the Islamic system in Iran.
As for the foreign policy issues, he referred to the arrest of the
ranian former diplomat Hadi Soleimanpour in Britain and expressed
surprise over the case.
He linked Soleimanpour`s arrest to the intense lobbying by the
Zionist regime.
It is a source of great surprise that the Zionist circle was
rocked by the blast in Argentina some 9 years ago and Iran said it
had no role in the bombings but an Iranian diplomat was arrested in
Britain due to the Zionist lobbying.
He praised the firm stand adopted by the Iranian Foreign Ministry
vis-a-vis the diplomat`s arrest and called on officials to settle
the issues with UK and Argentina once and for all.
In a telephone conversation with British Foreign Secretary Jack
Straw on August 25, Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi said Iran
government was very sensitive over the fate of Iranians living abroad
and will use all its capabilities to defend their rights.
Kharrazi referred to the recent arrest of former Iranian
ambassador to Argentina Hadi Soleimanpour by British police in London
and stressed that the event would negatively affect mutual
relations.
Kharrazi said the court ruling is political and lacks any judicial
and legal credit while asserting that Soleimanpour is innocent and
should be released as soon as possible.
Straw described as `important` Iran`s viewpoints, and stressed on
continuing of mutual talks over the issue saying London would do its
utmost to settle the challenge.
Soleimanpour, 47, was recently arrested by British Police in his
home in Durham, Northeast England over his alleged involvement in the
bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires in 1994.
He is to be held in custody until Friday August 29 when the
Magistrate Court in Bow Street in London will rule on an Argentine
extradition request.
HB/214
End
He urged the Iranians to pay
more attention to the Islamic morale.

http://www.irna.ir/#2003_08_2916_48_222

Soleimanpour again refused bail in UK

London, Aug 29, IRNA - Iran`s former ambassador to Argentina, Hade
Soleimanpour, was remanded in custody for a further three weeks in
the UK Friday after being refused bail for a second time despite
being held on only a provisional arrest request on an Argentinian
extradition claim.
District Judge Christopher Pratt rejected a further application
for bail Friday because of the seriousness of the allegations made by
Argentina, related to the 1994 bombing of a Jewish centre in Buenos
Aires, the same reason given in the first application last week.
Counsel for Soleimanpour, Alan Jones, argued that there had been
no reason for his arrest by British police at his home in Durham,
north east England, on August 21, because it was only a provisional
extradition warrant.
He said that his client was "not a fugitive" and that he had
stayed on as ambassador in Buenos Aires until January 1995, when
Argentina recalled its ambassador from Tehran in 1995. Since then he
had travelled to many countries, he said.
The former ambassador on a provisional extradition request, which
does not require Home Secretary David Blunkett to sign an Authority
to Proceed with a committal hearing until Argentina presents
supporting evidence for its claim.
Jones, who acted for Britain`s Crown Prosecution Service in the
1996 extradition case against former Chilean President Augusto
Pinochet, called a witness from Durham University, where Soleimanpour
is studying a PhD, to verify his good character.
He also presented staff letters to the judge at Bow Street
Magistrates Court in central London, about his relationship with the
university.
The counsel suggested that the case was politically motivated and
referred to the Argentinian judge first accusing the Iranian
government of involvement in the bombing in an article for the New
York Times this March, when he gave the paper a 600-page dossier.
He pointed out that British police visited Soleimanpour four days
later to question him about the article. He was further questioned in
a second visit about the bombing and in a third visit, the conflict
in the Middle East was raised.
The district judge rejected an argument from Robert Bland from
Britain`s Crown Prosecution Service representing Argentina`s
application, that the former ambassador`s safety could be at risk if
he was allowed bail.
Bland ironically referred to members of the Mujahideen-e Khalq
(MKO) terrorist group demonstrating outside the court, stating that
the former ambassador`s life could be put in danger from opponents of
the Iranian government if he was released.
Soleimanpour was remanded in custody until September 19, when
Argentina has to submit its full evidence for its extradition
application to be heard.
It is at that date that the Home Secretary has to decide whether
to sign the Authority to Proceed` for a committal hearing to go
ahead. It is also eventually at the discretion of Blunkett to
ultimately decide whether an extradition takes place.

http://www.irna.ir/#2003_08_2918_19_221

US sponsors Anonymiser - if you live in Iran
By Kevin Poulsen, SecurityFocus
Posted: 29/08/2003 at 15:26 GMT

A pact between the U.S. government and the electronic privacy company Anonymizer, Inc. is making the Internet a safer place for controversial websites and subversive opinions -- if you're Iranian.

This month Anonymizer began providing Iranians with free access to a Web proxy service designed to circumvent their government's online censorship efforts. In May, government ministers issued a blacklist of 15,000 forbidden "immoral" websites that ISPs in the country must block -- reportedly a mix of adult sites and political news and information outlets. An estimated two million Iranians have Internet access.

Among the banned sites are the website for the U.S.-funded Voice of America broadcast service, and the site for Radio Farda, another U.S. station that beams Iranian youth a mix of pop music and westernized news. Both stations are run by the International Broadcasting Bureau (IBB), the U.S. government's overseas news and propaganda arm.

The U.S. responded to the filtering this month by paying Anonymizer (neither the IBB nor Anonymizer will disclose how much) to create and maintain a special version of the Anonymizer proxy which only accepts connections from Iran's IP address space, and features instructions in Farsi.

The deliberately generic-sounding URLs for the service are publicized over Radio Farda broadcasts and through bulk e-mails that Anonymizer sends to addresses in the country. The addresses are provided by human rights groups and other sources, says Anonymizer president Lance Cottrell.

"We're providing a system whereby the people in the countries that are suffering Internet censorship can bypass the government filtering and access all the pages that are blocked," says Cottrell.

The services' navigation boxes default to Radio Farda or Voice of America, but surfers are invited to put in any address they like, and browse free of the Iranian government's filtering.

"Dissident sites, religious sites, the L.L. Bean catalog -- we point them to the Voice of America site, but they can go anywhere," says Ken Berman, program manager for Internet anticensorship at the IBB, "They're free explore the Internet in an unfettered fashion."

Mostly unfettered. Like the Iranian filters, the U.S. service blocks porn sites -- "There's a limit to what taxpayers should pay for," says Berman. But the United States' hope is that a freer flow of online information will improve America's image in the Arab world. The service is similar to one Anonymizer provided to Chinese citizens under a previous government contract that ran-out ended earlier this year.

Cottrell and Berman agree that it's only a matter of time before the Iranonymity service winds on the official blacklist. But Berman hints that the U.S. is ready for a prolonged electronic shell game with Tehran. "In China we're continually monitoring the state of the proxy, and when we see the traffic drop off, we change the proxy's address, usually within 24 hours," says Berman. "In Iran, we're prepared to change the proxy address every day if necessary."

A bill that passed the U.S. House of Representatives last month would create an Office of Global Internet Freedom that would have up to a $50 million annual budget to help citizens of foreign repressive governments skirt Internet censorship.

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