Posted on 09/16/2003 1:13:54 AM PDT by My Favorite Headache
Hurricane Isabel is falling apart and fast. Re-Con planes have been flying in the storm since midnight and the entire west quad of the storm has disappeared. The eastern portion of the storm has a wind around 110KTS. There is discussion that re-strengthening will occour within 24 hours though so this still remains a threat.
Pressure has dramatically risen as well. Discussion currently is Isabel making landfall in either Northern South Carolina or Southern North Carolina and a due north move after landfall. Thinking is a landfalling Category 2 minimal 3 storm.
Well considering the size of the storm earlier and the size of the population in the target area, I would think that it is better to err on the side of caution in order to evacuate if necessary. It takes *time* to do that unfortunately.
I am from southwest Louisiana and I know people who survived Hurricane Audrey. Those people were told to get a good night's rest and then evacuate in the morning, the only problem was the storm sped up and people were trapped by flooded roads and a 20 foot storm surge at high tide. To this day they get out of dodge if there is any chance of a direct hit.
Just last year with Lily we had to evacuate early because the storm surge was predicted to come inland up to I 10. Fortunately I had family up north because there were no hotel rooms anywhere south of Dallas or Arkansas. The traffic was a nightmare. It took us 5 hours to travel what normally took 1 hour.
Thank God it turned and weakened at the last minute and where it went in was not very populated. It was a pain getting my disabled father and all the pets in the car for a very long ride, but we had a great time visiting with the family and was glad and thankful to have a home to come back to.
It should be remembered, though, that hurricanes are part of the natural system that keeps our planet habitable. We have no way of knowing what an Earth that never had hurricanes might be like, but it might very well NOT be better. "He maketh the rain to fall upon the just and the unjust alike. . ."
It is not God's fault that thousands of people insist on building property -- and sometimes expensive property -- on coastal barrier islands and tidewater floodplains. In fact, I believe that our Lord had something very specific to say about those who built on sand rather than solid rock. . .
These people keep shifting their track very slightly further westward every forecast. 48 hours ago it was ramrod-straight up the center of the Chesapeake, now it's basically landfall at Morehead City, NNW inland to Richmond, and over the northern Shenendoah around Winchester, VA/Harpers Ferry, WV in 72 hours, still as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. She just has not made the northward turn that everybody has been predicting. Izzy, stubborn girl that she is, keeps grinding northwest. I guess she wants to see both the beaches and the mountains on this trip.
If she keeps this track, the problems in Washington won't be wind from the hurricane. They'll be when the Potomac floods from upstream in a couple days. And the flash-flooding in the Blue Ridge could get very ugly, considering the rain that's already fallen up there this year.
}:-)4
Here's an interesting infrared satellite picture which clearly shows the Gulf Stream. Isabel *will* feed off of that warm water.
Isabel will be over 29-30 C water virtually all the way to the Carolina Coast. Only when north of the Gulf Stream does the water temperature drop substantially. (Weather Channel this morning showed a graphic that no Cat 3,4, or 5 storms had hit the East Coast between Hatteras and Long Island since 1899! That's mainly due to the cooler waters north of the Gulf Stream. Long Island has gotten a few hits from Cat 3-5 storms that stayed out to sea south of the Gulf Stream (which angles northeastward from Hatteras) longer and then shot north while maintaining their strength).
Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 16, 2003
...Isabel continues north-northwestward... a Hurricane Watch is in effect from Little River Inlet South Carolina to Chincoteague Virginia...including the Pamlico and Albemarle sounds...Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach Maryland... and the tidal Potomac. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
Hurricane warnings may be required later today or tonight.
A tropical storm watch is in effect south of Little River Inlet to South Santee River South Carolina. A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch may be required north of the Hurricane Watch area later today or tonight.
At 2 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 27.5 north... longitude 71.3 west or about 595 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras North Carolina.
Isabel is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...with higher gusts...or category two on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. While some further weakening is possible today...conditions could become favorable for restrengthening prior to landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 160 miles from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 275 miles...mainly to the northeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb...28.32 inches.
Large ocean swells and dangerous surf conditions are already being experienced along portions of the U.S. Southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. These conditions will also continue over portions of the the Bahamas for the next few days.
Repeating the 2 PM EDT position...27.5 N... 71.3 W. Movement toward...north-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
For storm-related information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office...and statements from local emergency management officials.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT.
Forecaster Franklin
I love beach houses, and want to make myself jealous.
I wouldn't wish any damage on his house, mostly for the sake of his builders, who he'd sue the crap out of for damages.
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