Free Republic

GUR named the approximate stocks of missiles in Russia:

• 40 Zircon: production rates - up to 10 missiles/month;
• 400 Onyx/Onyx-M: production rate – up to 10 missiles/month.
• 270 Kalibr: production rate – 30-40 missiles/month.
• 45 Kh-69: production rate – 1-3 missiles/month.

https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3krgrsmtgnk2t

Philosopher Dugin is being blackmailed by an “old friend.” Threatens to give an interview about him to Tucker Carlson and show him an “interesting video.”

Alexander Dugin found himself in an unpleasant situation. He is being blackmailed by an old acquaintance - the leader of the group “Korrozia Metalla” Sergei (“Spider”) Troitsky.

According to our sources close to Troitsky, after his group started having problems , the musician turned to Dugin for help. Specifically, he asked Alexander Gelyevich to use his influence in the Kremlin and make sure that the group stopped being persecuted. “Spider” referred to old friendships with Dugin and the fact that he always liked the work of “Metal Corrosion.” And he asked “to resolve the issue through Putin, there's only five minutes to do.”

Alexander Gelyevich, according to people close to Troitsky, simply “sent” him. As a result, the leader of Metal Corrosion threatens to take extreme measures.

“Spider has several interesting videos from our frenzy, which Dugin was present at. There's a lot of stuff there. And drugs, and a lot of booze, and gangbangs, and pedophilia. And Nazi symbols, of course. There were times when our respected philosopher did not disdain either children or men after coke. He also zigged so funny, naked. When I watch these videos, I always laugh,” one of the band's musicians told us.

Troitsky is not just threatening to publish these videos. He promised to contact Tucker Carlson, who recently published an interview with Dugin. And show all the incriminating evidence on the air of his program, giving an interview on this topic. “Spider” is sure that the journalist will be interested in such videos. And, if not, then “there are many different other American television channels.” Sources close to Dugin refuse to comment on the existence of compromising videos. But they admit that Alexander Gelievich is being blackmailed by “some unreasonable people.”

We think we will determine whether this blackmail will be successful for Troitsky by whether they continue to pursue “Korrozia Metalla.” And will the group resume its activities?
https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4025

https://www.metal-archives.com/bands/%D0%9A%D0%BE%D1%80%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B7%D0%B8%D1%8F_%D0%9C%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%BB%D0%B0/441

On 29 April 2024 the band members were arrested during a live show in Nizjnij Novgorod for displaying neo-Nazi symbols and selling neo-Nazi books and clothes which is illegal in Russia. The band said it's “old Slavic symbols.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korrozia_Metalla

The name of the politician who spread rumors about Putin's poor health and death has been named.

We have written about the spread of such rumors more than once. In particular, they appeared after Vladimir Vladimirovich took communion, and also immediately after the terrorist attack in Crocus. Three unrelated sources - in the FSB and the Kremlin - told us that the rumors were dispersed by people associated with Sergei Sobyanin. “We have clear evidence that harmful fake news was spread by people associated with the mayor of Moscow. We are now checking the evidence and will present it to the President. The evidence, believe me, is serious,” said one of the interlocutors.

A source in the Kremlin is confident that Sobyanin has become “a hostage to his ambitions.” “Sergei Semenovich believes that he has stayed too long in his chair in Moscow and wants to reach a higher level. At the very least, become prime minister, but who knows? But he has no chance of getting a post in the same government, so he's doing shit,” he said. Also, according to the interlocutor, Sobyanin wants the SVO [invasion of Ukraine] to end as soon as possible (despite all the progress of our army), and he will get back to normal business, even if he remains mayor of Moscow. At the same time, the head of the capital is not ready for any serious rebellion.

Sources close to Sobyanin denied this information to us and called it “nonsense.” True, we got very nervous and tried to find out where we learned this “nonsense”. It is interesting that Putin has not yet been presented with incriminating evidence against Sobyanin. But sources promise that he will receive all the necessary information in the near future.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4021

The United Nations (UN) and Western organizations continue to demonstrate how North Korea and the People's Republic of China (PRC) are directly and indirectly helping Russia's war effort. Reuters reported on April 29 that the UN North Korean sanctions monitoring panel issued a report to the UN Security Council (UNSC) confirming that Russian forces used a North Korean Hwasong-11 ballistic missile in a strike on Kharkiv City on January 2, 2024.[24] The panel reportedly noted that Russia's use of North Korean missiles violated the 2006 UN arms embargo on North Korea. Russia vetoed an annual UNSC resolution extending the monitoring panel on March 28, and the panel's mandate expired on April 30.[25]

The Economist reported on April 29 that the PRC is providing Russia with semiconductors, navigation equipment, jet parts, ball bearings, computer numerical controlled tools, and other dual-use equipment supporting Russian arms production.[26] The Economist, citing data from the Center for Strategic International Studies (CSIS), reported that Russia often imports goods through a complex system of shell companies, many of which can be traced back to the PRC. The Economist noted that Russian imports of goods from the PRC appeared to surge following Russian President Vladimir Putin's meeting with PRC President Xi Jinping in Moscow in March 2023. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated on May 1 that Russian imports of dual-use items from the PRC have helped Russia significantly increase its defense industrial production and that 70 percent of Russia's machine tools and 90 percent of its microelectronics come from the PRC.[27] ISW previously reported about the recent uptick in public meetings between Russian, PRC, North Korean, Iranian, and Belarussian officials that underscores these countries’ deepening mutual partnership aimed at confronting the West.[28]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-1-2024

Jason M. Brodsky: The Gaza student protestors have emboldened America’s enemies

A leaked document recently surfaced from the IRGC’s Intelligence Organisation, one of the most repressive instruments of the Iranian state, dated March 11, 2024. It said: ‘given the recent developments in the issue of Palestine and the psychological impact of the Al-Aqsa Storm operation on Palestinian communities in European and American countries, it was determined to implement significant support measures for April 15 [pro-Palestinian marches] and other rallies with the aim to achieve political isolation [of Israel].’ The document is signed by Mohammad Kazemi, the head of the IRGC’s Intelligence Organisation, who is sanctioned by the United States.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-gaza-student-protestors-have-emboldened-americas-enemies/

Several Iranian military leaders boasted on May 1 that they could strike Israel with a drone and missile attack much larger than what they launched on April 13 and thus inflict greater damage on Israel.[1] IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami suggested that Iran could have launched two or three additional waves of drones and missiles against Israel and that each successive wave would have reduced the efficacy of US and partner air defenses.[2] IRGC Aerospace Force Commander Brig. Gen. Amir Ali Hajji Zadeh similarly asserted that his service used “only 20 percent of [its] strength” in the April 13 drone and missile attack.[3] CTP-ISW has previously assessed that Iran modeled its April 13 attack on recent Russian attacks in Ukraine and that Iran designed its strike package to defeat Israeli air defenses, even though the United States and its partners intercepted around 99 percent of the projectiles. Iranian leaders are almost certainly studying the April 13 attack to learn lessons and understand how to defeat US and partner air defenses in the future.[4]

Several senior Iranian military officers, including Salami, separately framed the April 13 drone and missile attack as successful in that it demonstrated Iranian willingness to now attack Israel directly.[5] These statements echo similar remarks from Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on April 22, during which he praised senior military commanders for their role in the attack and said that “the willpower of the Iranian nation and armed forces” matters more than how many munitions Iran launched or how many munitions hit their target.[6] These statements are also consistent with Salami and other regime officials saying in recent weeks that Iran has adopted a new policy of targeting Israel directly in retaliation for Israeli attacks on Iranian interests.[7]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-1-2024

https://twitter.com/alia_alyemen/status/1785613890279145505

the President praised the tribal reconciliation initiative in Al-Jawf, stressing the importance of reconciliation as a nucleus for unity and coexistence among the tribes in the Sheba region.

At the conclusion of the visit, Al-Alimi stressed the commitment of the Presidential Council to provide all capabilities to support security, military and development efforts in Marib, noting that the successes achieved in the governorate represent a model to be emulated in the rest of the regions. He expressed his confidence in the ability of the Yemeni people to overcome challenges and build a prosperous future for future generations.

This inspection visit embodies the spirit of determination and optimism, and reflects the strong will of the Yemeni government and people to strive towards achieving security, stability and progress, while preserving the national identity and rich cultural heritage of Yemen.

https://twitter.com/alsahilnet/status/1785431032399020349

i.e. perhaps we will get rid of the Iranian supported Houthies this time.

The ashes of the great commander Suvorov were urgently brought to Moscow.

This happened a few days after the arrest of Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov. Suvorov’s remains were brought at the personal request of Sergei Shoigu.

“Sergei Kuzhugetovich is having difficult times now . That's why he wanted to pray near the ashes of Alexander Vasilyevich and think about important things. Now Sergei Kuzhugetovich is sure: everything will be fine!” - a source close to Shoigu told us.

According to him, Suvorov’s ashes have already been returned to the front. He is located “somewhere in the Ocheretino area” and “helps our fighters advance.” “We are advancing with serious losses. Therefore, we expect that Alexander Vasilyevich will help, and fewer of our guys will die. Both in the DPR and in other sectors of the front,” the military man explained.

In addition, the ashes of Prince Grigory Potemkin-Tavrichesky will soon be sent to Crimea. Why Shoigu wants to send the remains of the prince there, [See below]

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4018

Shoigu ordered to strengthen Crimea with the help of the ashes of Grand Duke Potemkin.

The remains of Prince Grigory Potemkin-Tavrichesky, which were taken out of Kherson in 2022, will be transported across Crimea to strengthen morale and protect our military. This decision was made by Sergei Shoigu. “The situation in Crimea now is difficult, military personnel are dying, we are suffering losses - let's remember the same Dzhankoy and the recent tragic events there. Crimea needs the intercession of great figures of Russian history. Prince Potemkin is just such a person,” one of the deputy defense ministers told us. According to him, it will be especially important to take the remains of the Grand Duke to air defense units, which in Crimea “now does not always work as it should.” Another source in the ministry noted: Shoigu recognized the successful actions with the ashes of commander Alexander Suvorov , who continue to be carried along the front line. “Sergei Kuzhugetovich is confident that the ashes of Alexander Vasilyevich strengthened the morale of our military, and we are now moving forward at the front. Prince Potemkin can become the heavenly protector of Crimea, for which he did a lot during his lifetime,” our interlocutor is sure.

We have decided not to express our opinion on this initiative. Let us only note that among the military there are more and more supporters that the ashes of Suvorov (who was damaged as a result of one of the shelling) be returned to the grave. According to our data, Shoigu is not yet considering this option. As for Potemkin's ashes, according to some sources, now he “is constantly next to Sergei Kuzhugetovich.” Shoigu prays next to him before making important decisions.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/3969

The Russians are regressing to magical thinking. They are heading for the intellectual end.

Tajik Foreign Minister Sirojiddin Muhriddin expressed outrage over Russian authorities’ treatment of Central Asian migrants, particularly Tajik citizens, indicating that increased Russian efforts to control migrants living in and entering Russia following the March 22 Crocus City Hall attack are continuing to strain Tajik-Russian relations. Muhriddin stated in an April 30 phone call with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that Russian authorities are violating Tajik citizens’ rights and freedoms in Russia and noted that such treatment of Tajik citizens in Russia does not comply with the Tajik-Russian Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Relations and Allied Cooperation treaties.[15] Muhriddin called Lavrov’s claim that Russia has not taken measures against specific ethnicities or religious minorities following the Crocus City Hall attack false and stated that Russian authorities have had an “exclusively“ negative reaction to Tajik citizens. ISW observed increased crackdowns against Russian indigenous and migrant Muslim communities after the Crocus City Hall attack, including crackdowns against Tajik migrants.[16]

The BBC News Russian Service reported on March 27 that Russian authorities have initiated a significantly increased number of criminal cases for migration law violations since the Crocus attack, particularly against Tajik citizens.[17] The Russian MFA claimed that Lavrov explained to Muhriddin that Russian authorities are temporarily increasing checks on foreigners attempting to enter Russia in an effort to prevent terrorism following the Crocus City Hall attack.[18] The Russian MFA notably did not report Muhriddin’s criticisms of Russian authorities’ treatment of Tajik citizens in Russia, indicating that Russia is likely attempting to downplay the current rift in Tajik-Russian relations but has no intention of scaling back crackdowns.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-30-2024

A BBC report published on April 29 detailed the uncoordinated and brutal way in which Iranian security personnel killed a 16-year-old girl participating in the 2022 protest wave, citing a “highly confidential” IRGC document.[27] The BBC identified the document as a report summarizing a five-hour, IRGC-held hearing on the killing of Nika Shakarami, a 16-year-old girl. The document confirmed that three members of Ansar-e Hezbollah — a semi-official, regime vigilante group — molested and killed Shakarami for participating in the Woman, Life, Freedom movement in September 2022. The report claimed that the personnel detained, abused, and killed Shakarami in their vehicle after spotting her at an anti-regime protest. IRGC Capt. Mohammad Zamani instructed the team to dump Shakarami’s deceased body on a Tehran street to avoid mounting casualties recorded at security stations. Zamani said that he had “already had deaths in [his] station, and [he did not] want the number to rise to 20.” This statement illustrates the culpability of this IRGC officer and his entire chain of command in Shakarami’s death. The regime later claimed that Shakarami killed herself.[28] The regime frequently disposed of dead protestors or delayed family access to the bodies of dead protesters during the Mahsa Amini movement.[29]

A senior former Iranian intelligence officer helped the BBC verify the authenticity of the report. The BBC offered details about how this official corroborated the document such as checking an IRGC archive by using a daily code issued to senior intelligence officers. The individual also called an Iranian government official within Iran's military apparatus to authenticate the report.[30]

This report corroborates some of CTP’s assessments made during its coverage of the Mahsa Amini movement, including that the protests caused security bandwidth constraints, exhaustion, and low morale.[31] The report cited by the BBC suggests an extraordinary level of incompetence from security personnel, including that Iranian security forces feared Shakarami and 14 other female protesters’ potential to “cause a [prison] riot.”[32] Ansar-e Hezbollah's participation in protest suppression also suggests that the regime was facing bandwidth constraints due to the protests. The IRGC uses and works with Ansar-e Hezbollah members, although the group sometimes operates outside of the IRGC’s jurisdiction in an extra-legal capacity.[33] Ansar-e Hezbollah has previously threatened, kidnapped, and killed regime dissidents but has not played a prominent role in quashing anti-regime protests in recent years.[34] The group's participation in suppressing the Mahsa Amini protest movement is particularly noteworthy within this context.

The BBC's April 29 report further highlights CTP’s long-standing observation that the regime enables and empowers the killing of its citizens.[35] The IRGC document stated that Shakarami’s killing did not result in disciplinary action because the incident involved the participation of Ansar-e Hezbollah members instead of IRGC officers. The IRGC officer who oversaw the Ansar-e Hezbollah members and instructed them to dump Shakarami’s body received only a “written reprimand.”[36]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-30-2024

Secret document says Iran security forces molested and killed teen protester

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68840881

We have successfully documented the entire Russian missiles industry, mapping 28 of its key enterprises. Read our first OSINT sample focusing on the Votkinsk Plant, a major producer of intercontinental ballistic missiles. How does it make weaponry?

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1785033497486209165.html

Airlines report GPS signal jamming: Russia gets the blame

Jamming is considered to be very easy to do because it only takes a very, very weak signal to make a GPS receptor go dark, and tools capable of jamming signals can be bought online.

Another hack called spoofing displays a false position of the aircraft. “Spoofing is a bit harder than jamming,” but with the right tools “a reasonably competent hobbyist can do it. We have recently seen spoofed aircraft almost accidentally fly into Iranian airspace without clearance,” which “could have resulted in a shoot down,” Goward said.

“Typical regions where GPS interference has been reported include the Baltic and Kaliningrad area, around the Black Sea, Caspian Sea as well as eastern Mediterranean,” said Jenni Kiiski, spokesperson for Finnair, one of the airlines most affected by GPS jamming. Many of its flights go south from Helsinki over the Baltic Sea and pass near Kaliningrad, she said.

Latvia’s airBaltic has reported similar problems. “It must be admitted that airBaltic’s routes to individual destinations have been also affected by this phenomenon,” said Janis Kristops, safety manager with the carrier.

When GPS interference disrupts airBaltic flights, “the route taken and the location shown on the small cabin screens visible to passengers, as well as possibly on the website Flightradar24, may in exceptional cases differ from the actual route,” Kristops said.

It’s not just a civilian aircraft problem. In mid-March, a military plane carrying British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps was hit by GPS jamming on its way back from Poland.

https://www.politico.eu/article/airlines-flying-baltic-region-report-gps-signal-russia-gets-blame/

The Kremlin is pursuing a hybrid campaign directly targeting NATO states, including using GPS jamming and sabotaging military logistics in NATO members’ territory. Financial Times (FT) reported on April 29 that Baltic ministers are warning that Russia is behind recent cases of GPS jamming that have interfered with commercial navigation signals and forced two Finnair flights to turn back in the middle of flights from Helsinki to Tartu in the past week.[20] FT estimated that GPS jamming has affected “tens of thousands” of civilian flights in recent months. UK outlet the Sun also reported on April 23 that suspected Russian GPS jamming impacted over three thousand UK civilian flights over the Baltic region, and British officials also believe that Russia jammed the satellite signal of a Royal Air Force jet that was transporting British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps back to the UK from Poland in March.[21] Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsakhna told FT that Estonia considers recent GPS jamming instances “part of Russia's hostile activities” and a “hybrid attack.”[22]

FT noted that there are three suspected sources — Russian electronic warfare (EW) assets in Kaliningrad; another source in Russia causing GPS disturbances in Estonia and Finland; and a third source that is active farther north and impacting the northern parts of Norway and Finland.[23] An open-source intelligence account focusing on GPS jamming in the Baltic region assessed that the GPS jammer affecting the Estonian flights is in Russia roughly halfway between St. Petersburg and Narva, Estonia.[24] ISW has observed widespread GPS disruptions across Poland and the Baltics since late December 2023.[25]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-29-2024

The GPS-jammer affecting aircrafts around Estonia is located in Russia, about halfway to St Petersburg from Narva, Estonia. This is shown by plotting the highest density of intersecting radio horizons of jammed aircrafts on a map.

https://twitter.com/auonsson/status/1785045420185473079

GPS jamming map

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/gps-jamming

https://gpsjam.org/

Iran is hosting an international trade exhibition between April 27 and May 1 as part of its effort to undermine Western sanctions by increasing Iranian exports and economic cooperation with other countries. Delegations from at least 26 countries, including Burkina Faso, North Korea, Russia, and Zimbabwe, attended the exhibition.[20] The exhibition has showcased Iranian agricultural, electrical, medical, and petrochemical products.[21] Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanani emphasized on April 29 that the Iranian Industry, Mining, and Trade Ministry invited North Korea to participate in the exhibition.[22] A North Korean economic and political delegation traveled to Tehran on April 23, marking the first North Korean visit to Iran since 2019.[23] Kanani dismissed allegations that the North Korean delegation is visiting Iran to expand military cooperation with Tehran, describing these allegations as “biased speculation” and “baseless.”[24] Iranian First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber separately called for expanding economic ties and conducting trade in local currencies during meetings with the vice president of Zimbabwe and the prime minister of Burkina Faso on the sidelines of the exhibition on April 27.[25] Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi previously traveled to Zimbabwe in July 2023 and signed 12 cooperation agreements, including an energy agreement, with Zimbabwean officials.[26]

Iran appears especially focused on possible arms deals with regional and extra-regional actors. Iranian Defense and Armed Forces Logistics Minister Brig. Gen. Mohammad Reza Gharaei Ashtiani discussed military cooperation in separate meetings with his Indian and Kazakh counterparts on the sidelines of a Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting in Astana on April 26 and 27.[27] Ashtiani separately expressed readiness to increase cooperation with Zimbabwe while meeting Zimbabwean Vice President Constantino Chiwenga in Tehran on April 29.[28] Ashtiani, in his role as defense minister, is primarily responsible for managing arms procurement and sales and the Iranian defense industrial base. Iranian leaders have intensified their efforts in recent years to export military assets in order to generate revenue for the ill-fairing Iranian economy and increasing Iranian influence abroad.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-april-29-2024

In total 1727 studies
https://clinicaltrials.gov/search?intr=Rapamycin