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Posted on 09/20/2001 10:47:52 AM PDT by Clinton's a liar

WASHINGTON, Sept. 19 (UPI) -- Make no mistake about it, Osama bin Laden is very astute.

I'm not referring to last week's horrific attacks on New York and Washington that left thousands dead, much of New York in disarray and the country and the civilized world in shock. I'm talking about his long-term planning. Planning that calls for a revolution in current political thinking throughout Central Asia, the Middle East and the rest of the Islamic world.

Like any revolution that needs to survive, bin Laden and his Al-Qaida movement must continue to grow, or it will die. In his quest for Muslim expansion bin Laden would like to see the "Balkanization," or in this case the Islamization, of Central Asia. Maybe Islamization is the wrong word because there is little that is Islamic about his ways, which, says professor Akbar Ahmad, Chair of Islamic Studies at the American University's School of International Studies in Washington, DC, "are not Islamic at all."

"What makes it worse for Muslims is that the West is equating the Taliban's un-Islamic acts with Islam. This is a double affront to Muslims," Ahmad told UPI. "The first step the West needs to undertake is to better understand Islam."

Nevertheless, bin Laden is using Islam, much like Adolf Hitler used National Socialism, and Pol Pot communism. Had he been around in the 1960s or 1970s, he would just as easily have adopted communism as a platform in order to propel his cause. But mix in religious fervor and any revolution becomes all the more potent, and dangerous.

"It's a very complex situation," said Ahmad. This pan-Islamic movement "may be called Taliban in one country, and it is called something else in others." Several intelligence sources say bin Laden's network extends to more than 60 countries.

The Taliban's main aim, according to Ahmad, is to "shake up the West's structure." While bin Laden and the Taliban are not openly talking about a greater Islamic entity, others, such as Al Muhajeroun, a group based in Britain, and with whom bin Laden enjoys close ties, are talking about a "Caliphate."

Some observers confirm that bin Laden has called Mullah Omar, the Taliban's supreme leader, "the leader of all Muslims." This equates to calling Omar a caliph.

Bin Laden's first step was to hijack Islam to fit his cause, passing himself off as a fervent religious man. That, of course, is meant to win him the support of hordes of fanatics who know little, if anything, of the Koran. On the other hand, as the chief executive officer of terror, he knows exactly what he is doing and where he wants to go.

Anyone with his mindset would clearly not be content to remain holed up in the bleak caves of Afghanistan. So the question, of course, is what next?

Next would be to consolidate his operations with the Taliban's. That has pretty much been achieved. "They are working in tandem," said professor Ahmad.

In order to better grasp what bin Laden's long-term thinking is you will need to look at a map of Central Asia.

Afghanistan, where bin Laden has set up camp, is a desolate country without much of an infrastructure, reeling under a heavy burden following years of Soviet invasion, war and a disastrous civil conflict -- a perfect place from which to launch a revolution. Much of the terrain is inaccessible, except by horseback, making the task of modern armies impossible. Just ask the Russians.

The country is ruled by the Taliban, a group of fanatic Islamists who feel threatened by modernism and who wish to impose their medieval ways on the rest of the world.

To the south and east of Afghanistan lies Pakistan, another country that sits on the fence of Muslim fundamentalism. The Taliban have warned Pakistan that siding with the United States would bring down the wrath of the Muslim world upon it. Pakistan, an Islamic country, is in a most precarious situation. The percentage of the country's population that supports the fundamentalists is in question, but some analysts believe the Taliban enjoys strong support in the army and the intelligence services.

This gives the country's ruler, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, a very fine line to tread. It also makes him an important friend of the United States and any Western coalition.

"The situation for Pakistan is very difficult," said Ahmad. "Pakistan is between a rock and a hard place. Musharraf is sitting on a tiger," said Ahmad. "You either ride it or you are inside its belly."

In a televised address to his nation Wednesday, Musharraf stressed the importance of not choosing the wrong side. "Pakistan comes first," Musharraf said, trying to reassure his countrymen that supporting an international effort in combating terrorism is in the country's national interest. "Pakistan faces one of its most critical times in history," said Musharraf.

With its nuclear capabilities, Pakistan would represent an ideal asset for bin Laden and the Taliban, should it fall off the fence and into their hands. Think of the consequences.

Ahmad sees this situation offering Pakistan an opportunity to once and for all set it on a course to rediscover its own destiny.

"Pakistan lost its course somewhere along the way. Something has gone terribly wrong. The leaders of Pakistan now have the opportunity to reassess and to put their house in order. The big question is will they do it?"

Regardless, bin Laden's next step would be to extend the reach of his Muslim fundamentalism. Tajikistan, to the northeast, Uzbekistan to the immediate north and Turkmenistan to the northwest -- all three are former Soviet republics with whom Afghanistan shares a border and a common religion.

Besides geographic expansion, giving them greater power in numbers, (combined population of more than 35 million people), these countries offer a wide range of natural resources. Turkmenistan borders the Caspian Sea, a short hop to Azerbaijan, another former Soviet republic, and a Muslim country.

Given that scenario, the new Muslim empire, or Caliphate, governed by bin Laden or the Taliban would encircle Iran, itself a Muslim nation, also rich in oil and other natural resources.

Now look at the map again and see the implications that would have on the rest of the oil-rich Arabian Gulf. Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, the Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Oman are only a small step and a revolution away. Remember the old domino effect theory much feared by the West -- especially the United States -- during the Vietnam War?

Now look at the map again, we are back in the Middle East. Palestine, Israel, Jordan, Egypt, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa are the natural extension for a Taliban Caliphate.

Think this is an unbelievable scenario? It was done a few centuries ago. Bin Laden is far too astute to content himself with the caves of Afghanistan. Read between the lines of his communiqués and the picture will become much clearer.

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Copyright 2001 by United Press International.

All rights reserved.

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Posted for educational and discussion purposes only.

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