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Posted on 10/15/2001 3:54:08 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer

WASHINGTON -- The canister found buried under leaves and snow in a Moscow park was not very big, but its contents sent a chilling signal about how easy it might be to spread nuclear terror.

Inside was a small amount of cesium-137, a radioactive isotope used in cancer research and radiation therapy. Television reporters were told of the canister's location in 1995 by the commander of rebel forces in the breakaway region of Chechnya. He later threatened to blow up 167 pounds of such material to contaminate a large area of Russia.

While the possibility of terrorists using chemical or biological weapons has received extensive attention recently in light of the anthrax scare, experts said nuclear terrorism could be just as likely -- and more dangerous.

``If terrorists can acquire the nuclear material, then the delivery and use and consequences would be relatively more predictable and relatively easy compared to chemical and biological,'' said Bruce Blair, director of the Center for Defense Information.

Many of those experts caution that the possibility of nuclear terrorism remains extremely low. But after the boldness and complexity of the Sept. 11 attacks, they warn that nuclear weapons, radioactive material and nuclear power plants hold too much destructive ability and symbolism to be ignored as potential weapons.

``Suddenly nuclear-related terrorism became a vivid and a very real threat,'' said Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., as she convened a congressional hearing earlier this month on safeguards against nuclear terrorism.

Terrorists likely would not be able to acquire, build or detonate a sophisticated, high-yield nuclear device, such as a thermonuclear warhead from a missile, according to experts on terrorism and nuclear proliferation. But there are several ways that terrorists could obtain and potentially use nuclear or radioactive material.

Crude, low-yield bombs

Smaller battlefield nuclear weapons -- some believed to be no larger than a suitcase -- could be stolen or bought on the black market from Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union has reduced the security surrounding the world's second-largest nuclear arsenal. The potential instability of Pakistan's government raises questions about the security of that nation's small nuclear arsenal and weapons-quality fissile material as well.

Terrorist organizations like Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaida network could construct a crude, low-yield nuclear bomb if it acquired enough fissile nuclear material, some experts maintain. There is evidence that bin Laden's organization has attempted to acquire uranium and other nuclear material on several occasions in recent years.

The 103 nuclear power plants across the United States also make prime targets for attacks by terrorists using bombs or hijacked airliners. Such an attack could lead to a devastating nuclear meltdown spreading a toxic radioactive cloud. Since Sept. 11, security has been dramatically increased at plants nationwide.

And the easiest means to spread radioactive terror, experts said, would be to do what Chechen rebel leader Shamil Basayev threatened to do six years ago -- build a so-called ``dirty bomb'' containing nuclear waste or other radioactive material surrounded by traditional explosives.

In a worst-case scenario, such a bomb would spread enough radiation to cause hundreds of deaths and significantly increase instances of cancer for thousands of other people. At the least, it would spread enough low-level radiation to make part of a city or a symbolic location uninhabitable without protective gear for months or longer because of the contamination.

``Imagine if they did it in the middle of New York City. It would make that whole area unusable until they decontaminated it, which could take years,'' said Gary Ackerman, an expert on terrorism and weapons of mass destruction at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies.

``Imagine the psychological impact of that,'' he said. ``There are two things that people fear: getting sick and getting irradiated. They're invisible.''

Along with the damage and panic, a nuclear or radiological attack would have great symbolism for bin Laden.

In the video released last Sunday, bin Laden referred to the nuclear attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki that ended World War II as an example of the hypocrisy of the United States.

Islam's `nuclear bomb'

In 1998, bin Laden issued a statement titled ``The Nuclear Bomb of Islam.'' It said that ``it is the duty of Muslims to prepare as much force as possible to terrorize the enemies of God.''

U.S. officials have publicly warned about terrorists' use of nuclear weapons for several years. In 1996, then director of the Central Intelligence Agency, John Deutch, warned a congressional committee that although there was no evidence that any terrorist group had obtained nuclear materials, ``we are concerned because only a small amount of material is necessary to terrorize populated areas.''

Experts differ on the likelihood of terrorists building or acquiring nuclear weapons. Some dismiss it as improbable. Others say it would not be so difficult.

``Nations have difficulty doing it; nobody expects terrorist groups to,'' said Milton Leitenberg, a senior fellow at the Center for International and Security Studies at the University of Maryland. Iraq spent from $40 billion to $50 billion over 15 years and was unable to acquire enough weapons-quality plutonium or highly enriched uranium to construct a nuclear bomb before the Persian Gulf War in 1991, he said.

But David Albright, who helped inspect Iraq's nuclear program in 1996, said terrorists would have an easier task.

Iraq spent most of its time and money trying to make its own plutonium and uranium. Terrorists could try to steal it or buy it, most likely from former states of the Soviet Union, said Albright, a physicist who is president of the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

In addition, Iraq was trying to build a sophisticated implosion type of nuclear weapon, which requires setting off a series of highly explosive charges inside the bomb at precise intervals to create the nuclear explosion. Terrorists likely would try for a much simpler ``gun-type'' device. It would produce a much smaller explosion but still would approximate the power of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs.

``They aren't stupid people, and they recruit scientists,'' Albright said. ``They probably are capable of making a crude gun-type device and probably have a research facility in Afghanistan working on it.''

Russia poses the best potential targets for terrorists to steal or acquire either nuclear weapons or the fissile material required to make them. The United States has spent about $5 billion since the end of the Cold War to help dismantle thousands of Russian nuclear weapons and better secure existing weapons and weapons-grade material.

Estimates vary widely about how much weapons-grade material there is throughout the former Soviet Union -- as much as 1,000 metric tons of enriched uranium and 200 metric tons of plutonium.

``The Russians don't know how much plutonium they have, let alone where it is. That's a matter of some concern,'' said Gary Milhollin, director of the Wisconsin Project on Nuclear Arms Control.

Pakistan's arsenal is less of a concern because of its small size and indications that the weapons are stored in pieces in separate, highly guarded locations, said Gaurav Kampani, a research associate at the Center for Nonproliferation Studies who has studied the Pakistani nuclear program.

Threat to U.S. plants

Of bigger concern is the security of U.S. nuclear power plants. The Nuclear Regulatory Commission has told all plants to go to their highest level of security. National Guard troops have been sent to protect nuclear power plants in New Jersey, while California has dispatched California Highway Patrol officers to guard its two nuclear power plants, Diablo Canyon, near San Luis Obispo, and San Onofre, south of Los Angeles.

On Thursday, the commission shut down its Web site to review the type of material available. The site had included thousands of pages of detailed information about the nation's nuclear power plants, including the exact latitude and longitude of each facility.

``We realize that nuclear plants are a very symbolic potential target for terrorists,'' said NRC spokesman Victor Dricks.

But the biggest threat is the one that experts said would be the simplest: a dirty bomb containing radioactive material. The types of radioactive materials are numerous, ranging from isotopes used by hospitals to nuclear waste produced at power plants.

``These things don't require technical proficiency since you don't have to make anything,'' Leitenberg said. ``You just have to get your hands on something, wrap high explosives around it and blow it up.''

'America has been filled with fear from north to south and from east to west, thank God.'

-Osama bin Laden, Oct. 2001

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