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Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of morning exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

FReep this Digg!!! (We need FReepers to FReep the Vote over at Buzz too! Any volunteers???) Post your own links exposing ObamaNation on Digg, Buzz, Reddit, etc. Saturate these boards. They're massive and they are crawling with independents and undecideds. And don't post them all in one category, like politics or elections. Finally, repost your links on FR to we can put a protective FReep around them :o) For examples of how to do this, see my history. Let's use our combined FReeperPower to FREEP THE VOTE!!!

The final Harris Poll from Nov 2, 2004...Another piece of evidence pointing to a likely Kerry victory is that online Harris Polls in these large, key states, which may well determine the Electoral College result, all show modest Kerry leads. However, all these leads are within the possible sampling error for these surveys. Assuming the forecast is correct, Kerry is likely to win all three large states, and almost certainly the White House along with it. The sample sizes were well over 1,000 likely voters in Florida (1,433), Pennsylvania (1,204), and Ohio (1,218).

There was another attack this morning and that took some time to deal with. Remember that if the site is unreachable, try the backup sites: www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com. I will also update the site tonight as the actual results come in. Furthermore I will also do a post-mortem on the election in the coming days, so check back later in the week. My special interest is how well the pollsters did. To see the current predictions broken down by pollster, see the Pollsters page and the pages for the battleground states, many of which have separate graphs per pollster. Now...

Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results: “We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize. “We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side." (more from Zogby coming soon…) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%...

I am trying to determine how many voters were undecided going into the last week of the 2004 presidential election. Of these undecided voters, what percent of them broke for Bush?

In Iowa, Kerry Leads in Early Voting The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush. "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters." October 31, 2004

In Iowa, Kerry Leads in Early Voting The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush. "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters."

(October 20, 2004) Pew Poll finds that Kerry leads Bush 49% to 43% in battleground states

Ramsey, NJ, Oct 23, 2008 / 06:55 pm (CNA).- Investor's Business Daily and the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (IBD/TIPP) has just released a tracking poll that shows that John McCain has dramatically shortened the his deficit with Barack Obama, taking a significant lead among Catholics. In the midst of the polling confusion, this poll has been regarded as relevant, since an analysis of Final Certified Results showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP to be the most accurate pollster for the 2004 election. IBD/TIPP reported late on Thursday that McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day...

But first, the findings: # The 10-point lead that Kerry held over President Bush in a March survey has grown to 13 percent. # While Bush's support among students has remained consistent, many undecided voters have moved into the Kerry camp. # In swing states, Kerry's lead is even higher, about 16 percent. Swing-state students also are saying they are more likely to vote than students in non-swing states. # Women are far more likely to support Kerry. The race is about even among males.

With expectations of a record African American turnout on Nov. 2, voter trends suggest that if John Kerry wins the White House it will be in large part due to overwhelming support among black voters. However, if African Americans turn out at levels equivalent to previous elections or are offset by drastic shifts in outside voter trends, President Bush is likely to earn four more years. In an interview, Rev. Jesse Jackson says it point blank: “The black vote is the swing vote.” And, as Jackson knows, Kerry cannot win the presidency unless the black vote swings heavily in his...

In Iowa, Kerry Leads in Early Voting The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush. "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters."

The following is an analysis of the 17 state polls adminstered by Rasmussen during the final days of the 2004 election, consisting of mainly "contested" and toss-up states. Findings: 1)In 17 Polls, Bush Was Underestimated in all 17, Kerry was Overestimated in 4 and correctly predicted in 2. Note that these polls also included a percentage of "undecided" voters. So to be "overestimated" is actually extremely difficult when 5-10% of voters do not even participate with a Bush/Kerry answer. If you remove "no comment" voters from the sample, Kerry's support is overestimated in almost every single state poll, while Bush...

13 ELECTORAL VOTES AT STAKE, 72 HOURS TO GO ... BUSH 51%, KERRY 47% IN AN ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT IN VA TODAY, 3 DAYS TO THE VOTE, GEORGE W BUSH DEFEATS JOHN KERRY 51% TO 47%, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 606 LIKELY VOTERS 10/27-10/29. IN 5 TRACKING POLLS SINCE JULY, BUSH HAS LED BY 4 PTS 3 TIMES, LED BY 5 PTS ONCE, & ONLY LED BY 11 ONCE, AT PEAK OF SWIFT-BOAT CONTROVERSY. IN 2000, BUSH WON VA BY 8. KERRY LEADS BY 10 PTS IN NE VA, LEADS BY 2 IN SE VA. BUSH LEADS BY 9...

Don't be discouraged by polls showing McCain and Palin trailing Obama in key states. In 2004, one state poll after the next had underestimated Bush's support, often going well beyond the "scientific" margin of error. Meanwhile, those same polls either correctly predicted or over-predicted Kerry's numbers. Out of over 100 state polls reviewed, more than 90% of polls undersampled Bush, while more than 65% oversampled Kerry. Some finding from key states: Florida In 2004 Bush won by 5 Points (52-47) Of the 9 major polls taken right before the election, Three had Kerry winning by 2-5 points, Two had a...

Hillbuzz dug out this little gem. Sound familiar? Poll suggests Kerry has lead in swing states Last Updated: Sunday, October 17, 2004 | 9:15 PM ET CBC News John Kerry appealed to African-American voters on Sunday, as he pushed ahead with his campaign to unseat George W. Bush. Kerry promised the voters, many of whom feel the Republicans are trying to keep them off the voter lists, "We're not going to let this be just a repeat of 2000. We're not going to see a million African-Americans deprived of their votes in America," he said. With just 16 days to...

Polls suggest a dead heat. Even Republican organizers concede the Democratic senator has benefited from his performance in the three presidential debates. And a Washington Post poll shows Kerry with a significant lead in important states that could decide the outcome of the election. The poll found Kerry held a 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 such states

(October 18, 2004) North Carolina poll: Bush 50%, Kerry 47% [Actual Result: 56% to 44% for Bush]