Free Republic

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of morning exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

FReep this Digg!!! (We need FReepers to FReep the Vote over at Buzz too! Any volunteers???) Post your own links exposing ObamaNation on Digg, Buzz, Reddit, etc. Saturate these boards. They're massive and they are crawling with independents and undecideds. And don't post them all in one category, like politics or elections. Finally, repost your links on FR to we can put a protective FReep around them :o) For examples of how to do this, see my history. Let's use our combined FReeperPower to FREEP THE VOTE!!!

The final Harris Poll from Nov 2, 2004...Another piece of evidence pointing to a likely Kerry victory is that online Harris Polls in these large, key states, which may well determine the Electoral College result, all show modest Kerry leads. However, all these leads are within the possible sampling error for these surveys. Assuming the forecast is correct, Kerry is likely to win all three large states, and almost certainly the White House along with it. The sample sizes were well over 1,000 likely voters in Florida (1,433), Pennsylvania (1,204), and Ohio (1,218).

There was another attack this morning and that took some time to deal with. Remember that if the site is unreachable, try the backup sites: www.electoral-vote3.com through www.electoral-vote8.com. I will also update the site tonight as the actual results come in. Furthermore I will also do a post-mortem on the election in the coming days, so check back later in the week. My special interest is how well the pollsters did. To see the current predictions broken down by pollster, see the Pollsters page and the pages for the battleground states, many of which have separate graphs per pollster. Now...

Statement from John Zogby on 2004 Presidential Election Results: “We feel strongly that our pre-election polls were accurate on virtually every state. Our predictions on many of the key battleground states like Ohio and Florida were within the margin of error. I thought we captured a trend, but apparently that result didn’t materialize. “We always saw a close race, and a close race is what we’ve got. I’ve called this the Armageddon Election for some time—a closely-divided electorate with high partisan intensity on each side." (more from Zogby coming soon…) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Zogby International Finds: Bush at 49.4%, Kerry at 49.1%...

I am trying to determine how many voters were undecided going into the last week of the 2004 presidential election. Of these undecided voters, what percent of them broke for Bush?

In Iowa, Kerry Leads in Early Voting The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush. "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters." October 31, 2004

In Iowa, Kerry Leads in Early Voting The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush. "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters."

(October 20, 2004) Pew Poll finds that Kerry leads Bush 49% to 43% in battleground states

Ramsey, NJ, Oct 23, 2008 / 06:55 pm (CNA).- Investor's Business Daily and the TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (IBD/TIPP) has just released a tracking poll that shows that John McCain has dramatically shortened the his deficit with Barack Obama, taking a significant lead among Catholics. In the midst of the polling confusion, this poll has been regarded as relevant, since an analysis of Final Certified Results showed IBD's polling partner, TIPP to be the most accurate pollster for the 2004 election. IBD/TIPP reported late on Thursday that McCain has cut into Obama's lead for a second day...

But first, the findings: # The 10-point lead that Kerry held over President Bush in a March survey has grown to 13 percent. # While Bush's support among students has remained consistent, many undecided voters have moved into the Kerry camp. # In swing states, Kerry's lead is even higher, about 16 percent. Swing-state students also are saying they are more likely to vote than students in non-swing states. # Women are far more likely to support Kerry. The race is about even among males.

With expectations of a record African American turnout on Nov. 2, voter trends suggest that if John Kerry wins the White House it will be in large part due to overwhelming support among black voters. However, if African Americans turn out at levels equivalent to previous elections or are offset by drastic shifts in outside voter trends, President Bush is likely to earn four more years. In an interview, Rev. Jesse Jackson says it point blank: “The black vote is the swing vote.” And, as Jackson knows, Kerry cannot win the presidency unless the black vote swings heavily in his...

In Iowa, Kerry Leads in Early Voting The Des Moines Register's Iowa Poll "shows 48% of Iowans likely to vote in Tuesday's election, or who have already voted by absentee ballot," support Sen. John Kerry and 45% back President Bush. "Twenty-seven percent of Iowa adults surveyed said they had already voted. Kerry leads Bush, 52 percent to 41 percent, among that group of early-bird voters."

The following is an analysis of the 17 state polls adminstered by Rasmussen during the final days of the 2004 election, consisting of mainly "contested" and toss-up states. Findings: 1)In 17 Polls, Bush Was Underestimated in all 17, Kerry was Overestimated in 4 and correctly predicted in 2. Note that these polls also included a percentage of "undecided" voters. So to be "overestimated" is actually extremely difficult when 5-10% of voters do not even participate with a Bush/Kerry answer. If you remove "no comment" voters from the sample, Kerry's support is overestimated in almost every single state poll, while Bush...

13 ELECTORAL VOTES AT STAKE, 72 HOURS TO GO ... BUSH 51%, KERRY 47% IN AN ELECTION FOR PRESIDENT IN VA TODAY, 3 DAYS TO THE VOTE, GEORGE W BUSH DEFEATS JOHN KERRY 51% TO 47%, ACCORDING TO SURVEYUSA POLL OF 606 LIKELY VOTERS 10/27-10/29. IN 5 TRACKING POLLS SINCE JULY, BUSH HAS LED BY 4 PTS 3 TIMES, LED BY 5 PTS ONCE, & ONLY LED BY 11 ONCE, AT PEAK OF SWIFT-BOAT CONTROVERSY. IN 2000, BUSH WON VA BY 8. KERRY LEADS BY 10 PTS IN NE VA, LEADS BY 2 IN SE VA. BUSH LEADS BY 9...

Don't be discouraged by polls showing McCain and Palin trailing Obama in key states. In 2004, one state poll after the next had underestimated Bush's support, often going well beyond the "scientific" margin of error. Meanwhile, those same polls either correctly predicted or over-predicted Kerry's numbers. Out of over 100 state polls reviewed, more than 90% of polls undersampled Bush, while more than 65% oversampled Kerry. Some finding from key states: Florida In 2004 Bush won by 5 Points (52-47) Of the 9 major polls taken right before the election, Three had Kerry winning by 2-5 points, Two had a...

Hillbuzz dug out this little gem. Sound familiar? Poll suggests Kerry has lead in swing states Last Updated: Sunday, October 17, 2004 | 9:15 PM ET CBC News John Kerry appealed to African-American voters on Sunday, as he pushed ahead with his campaign to unseat George W. Bush. Kerry promised the voters, many of whom feel the Republicans are trying to keep them off the voter lists, "We're not going to let this be just a repeat of 2000. We're not going to see a million African-Americans deprived of their votes in America," he said. With just 16 days to...

Polls suggest a dead heat. Even Republican organizers concede the Democratic senator has benefited from his performance in the three presidential debates. And a Washington Post poll shows Kerry with a significant lead in important states that could decide the outcome of the election. The poll found Kerry held a 53 per cent to 43 per cent lead among likely voters in 13 such states

(October 18, 2004) North Carolina poll: Bush 50%, Kerry 47% [Actual Result: 56% to 44% for Bush]

Zogby Predicts Kerry Will Win Dave Eberhart, NewsMax.com Friday, Oct. 29, 2004 One of the nation’s most respected pollsters predicts that John Kerry will win the presidency Tuesday. Zogby gave his take on the heated presidential contest to New York Daily News columnist Sydney Zion in Friday’s paper. "It's close," Zogby said, "but in the last couple of days things have been trending toward Kerry - nationally and in the swing states. Between this and history, I think it will be Kerry."

Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2004 11:46 EST McCurry predicts huge turnout will win it for Kerry John Kerry's plane has just touched down at Hanscom Air Force Base in Bedford, Mass. Barring an extended recount, it's the last trip the chartered 757 will make as a campaign plane. If Kerry boards it again, it will be as a U.S. Senator -- or as the president-elect of the United States of America. Kerry's advisors plainly expect the latter. At an airport send-off in LaCrosse, Wisc., this morning, Kerry posed for photos with the press corps while his advisors joked and laughed on...

Its time for Bush to get worried By Frank Luntz October 15, 2004 The big story of the US presidential election up to Thursday was how few undecided voters there were. Now the final presidential debate is over, these voters have essentially made up their minds - and it is George W.Bush who should be worried. If John Kerry is elected the 44th president, it will be because of a single night in Miami, Florida, when he came to debate and Mr. Bush came to - well, no one is quite sure. The double-digit lead that Gallup polls, long considered...

Poll suggests Kerry has lead in swing states Last Updated: Sunday, October 17, 2004 | 9:15 PM ET John Kerry appealed to African-American voters on Sunday, as he pushed ahead with his campaign to unseat George W. Bush. Kerry promised the voters, many of whom feel the Republicans are trying to keep them off the voter lists, "We're not going to let this be just a repeat of 2000. We're not going to see a million African-Americans deprived of their votes in America," he said. With just 16 days to go until the vote, the race couldn't be tighter. Polls...

Poll: Advantage Kerry in Ohio Race Economic Issues Give Kerry Advantage in Potentially Crucial State Analysis By CHERYL ARNEDT Oct. 19, 2004— The economy and jobs dominate as the top issue in Ohio, lending fuel to John Kerry's candidacy -- and keeping the presidential race very close in this potentially crucial state. A third of likely voters in Ohio call the economy and jobs the most important issue in their vote, putting it substantially ahead of terrorism, Iraq or health care. The economy stands taller as the top concern in Ohio than nationally -- and that helps Kerry. Likely voters...

(CBS) A majority of uncommitted voters (39 percent) who watched Wednesday's third and final presidential debate felt Sen. John Kerry won, though nearly as many (36 percent) thought the result was a tie, and about one-quarter gave the debate to President Bush. Immediately after the debate, CBS News interviewed a nationally representative sample of more than 200 debate watchers assembled by Knowledge Networks who were "uncommitted voters" - voters who are either undecided about who to vote for or who have a preference but say they could still change their minds. During the debate, women frequently registered more positive reactions...

Ignore the Polls By Jim Geraghty | October 15, 2004 At the conclusion of the third debate, President Bush is in much better shape than the polls would suggest. This is not based on wishful thinking, outdated historical models, or a Magic Eight Ball. It is based on the clear fact that for the past two years, the major pollsters have been completely blindsided by the Republican Party's vastly enhanced turnout efforts.

Kerry Gains in Key States, Poll Finds October 13, 2004 in print edition A-24 Sen. John F. Kerry has improved his standing over President Bush in four Midwestern battleground states where domestic concerns of healthcare and the economy have overtaken the issues of terrorism and Iraq, a new Chicago Tribune poll shows. In Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio and Wisconsin – among the most contested states in the final three weeks of the campaign – the president’s approval rating is below 50%, historically a warning sign for an incumbent. Though a slim majority of likely voters in each of the four states...

Another poll that showed President Kerry winning Ohio by 6 points on October 22 2004. Kerry Leads Bush 49% to 43% In Ohio (October 22 2004) Jeremiah Wright apprentice also has the polls on his side but the elections will be against him.

(November 1, 2004) Fox News Poll: Kerry 48%, Bush 45% (RV)

This day in 2004 Electoral Vote Predictor 2004: Kerry 270 Bush 248 http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2004/Pres/Maps/Oct10.html http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Its not over until its over. I think it will all depend on how many acorn nuts are eliminated.

Polling firm Zogby International and partner Rock the Vote found Massachusetts Senator John Kerry leading President Bush 55% to 40% among 18-29 year-old likely voters in their first joint Rock the Vote Mobile political poll, conducted exclusively on mobile phones October 27 through 30, 2004. Independent Ralph Nader received 1.6%, while 4% remain undecided in the survey of 6,039 likely voters. The poll is centered on subscribers to the Rock the Vote Mobile (RTVMO) platform, a joint initiative of Rock the Vote and Motorola Inc. (for more information: http://www.rtvmo.com). The poll has margin of error of +/-1.2 percentage points. The...

(November 1, 2004): Kerry holds edge in Florida (leads Bush 50% to 47%)

(October 31, 2004) Florida Poll: Kerry 49%, Bush 44%

The economy and jobs dominate as the top issue in Ohio, lending fuel to John Kerry's candidacy -- and keeping the presidential race very close in this potentially crucial state. A third of likely voters in Ohio call the economy and jobs the most important issue in their vote, putting it substantially ahead of terrorism, Iraq or health care. The economy stands taller as the top concern in Ohio than nationally -- and that helps Kerry. Likely voters who pick it as their top issue favor him over President Bush by 73 percent to 25 percent. In the race overall,...

Kerry takes lead in new opinion poll Washington October 8, 2004 - 5:29PM Democrat John Kerry has taken a slight lead over US President George W Bush, according to a new opinion poll. The survey by the Associated Press found that Kerry had gained ground with women, boosting his overall popularity and cutting into the president's advantage on national security. The two candidates remain in a very close race ahead of a second debate tomorrow in St. Louis. Among 944 likely voters, the Democratic ticket of Kerry and John Edwards led Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney, 50 per cent...

A Kerry Landslide? Why the next election won't be close. By Chuck Todd Over the last year, most political TV shows handicapping the upcoming presidential election have repeated the refrain that the race will be extremely tight. Last month, CNN's astute commentator Jeff Greenfield hosted an entire segment on how easily this election could turn out like 2000, with President Bush and Sen. John Kerry splitting victories in the popular vote and the electoral college. Greenfield even threw out the possibility of an electoral college split of 269-269, brought about by a shift of just two swing states that went...

Kerry pulls ahead of Bush in Rasmussen Tracking Poll Kerry has pulled ahead of Bush in Rasmussen's Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for the first time since August 23. Rasmussen seems to favor Republicans - so the fact that Kerry's advantage has grown lately is a very positive sign. Kerry leads 48.4% - 46.4% in todays poll. The electorate may be leaning towards the challenger, desiring a change. Of course, the explosives left unguarded by the Bush administration and the prospect of Scalia being appointed Chief Justice might have an impact as well.

WASHINGTON — Sen. John Kerry (search) has taken a slim lead over President Bush (search), according to an Associated Press poll that shows the president's support tumbling on personal qualities, the war in Iraq (search) and the commander in chief's bedrock campaign issue — national security. Fewer voters than a month ago believe Bush is the best man to protect the country and fight the Iraq war. The AP-Ipsos Public Affairs poll (search), completed on the eve of the second presidential debate, showed a reversal from early September, when the Republican incumbent had the momentum and a minuscule lead. With...

New poll puts Kerry ahead of Bush (Agencies) Updated: 2004-10-03 09:38 Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry, buoyed by a strong showing in his televised debate with George W. Bush, has recaptured a small lead in their White House race, a Newsweek poll showed. The survey, the first released on the race since the debate Thursday, gave Kerry a 49-46 percent edge over Bush among registered voters in a two-way matchup, and a 47-45 percent margin in a contest also involving independent Ralph Nader. The poll, conducted Thursday to Saturday among 1,013 registered voters, reversed the findings of the last Newsweek...

ELECTION 2004 AOL poll: Bush wins in landslide Unscientific survey indicates president collecting 48 States Joe Kovacs President Bush In what some political observers might view as shocking news, a poll of America Online members is currently forecasting a landslide victory for President Bush, who collects 48 of the 50 states in this year's electoral race. The unscientific survey, whose results change in real time as more people vote, reveals with more than 34,000 participants, Bush takes a whopping 58 percent of the popular vote compared to 40 percent for Sen. John Kerry and 2 percent for Ralph Nader. According...

By and large the pollsters did an excellent job this year, especially when you consider the significant variables they were grappling with (massive registration increases, historic levels of intensity, cell phones, etc) and also that they were working under intense public scrutiny and scorching partisan attacks from both sides.At the national level the answer to the question is pretty straightforward. Ed Goeas's GW-Battleground Vote Projection and Pew Research got it exactly right. Goeas's final Battleground projection was Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.5 and Pew's final allocation was 51-48-1. CBS News/NY Times also nailed the final spread in the race...

September 03, 2004 09:30 PM US Eastern Timezone SurveyUSA: Momentum Shifts to Bush; Big GOP Bounce After RNC Convention VERONA, N.J.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Sept. 3, 2004--The number of Americans who think George W. Bush will be re-elected in November has suddenly jumped 10 to 20 points in dozens of cities around the country, according to SurveyUSA tracking polls conducted before, during and after the Democratic and Republican National Conventions. SurveyUSA has been asking respondents not who they will vote for, but rather: who they think will win the presidential election in November. This question is more sensitive to changes in sentiment, and is...

John Kerry and George W. Bush remain tied in the race for president both among Americans registered to vote and among likely voters according to a nationwide survey from the American Research Group, Inc. In the ballot preference between Kerry and Bush among registered voters, 48% say they would vote for Kerry and 46% say they would vote for Bush. When Ralph Nader is added to the ballot, 46% of registered voters say they would vote for Kerry, 45% say they would vote for Bush, and 3% say they would vote for Nader. Among registered voters considered likely to vote...

Plurality still satisfied with current spending levels by Jeffrey M. Jones GALLUP NEWS SERVICE PRINCETON, NJ -- As both houses of Congress take up the issue of the federal budget, they are looking to cut spending in order to reduce the projected budget deficit. Defense spending is one particular area in which Congress will likely approve less money than President George W. Bush requested. A recent Gallup Poll shows that Americans tend to think government spending on national defense is about right, but a growing percentage say the government is spending too much in this area. Nevertheless, most Americans...

Here’s a question: If you ask Americans which presidential candidate, George W. Bush or John F. Kerry, stands up to special interest groups, whom do they pick? Of course most people would choose Senator John “We’re coming, you’re going, and don’t let the door hit you on the way out” Kerry — right? Wrong. In a Gallup Poll taken in mid-February, 45 percent of those surveyed said the phrase “stands up to special-interest groups” applies to President Bush, while 44 percent said it applies to Sen. Kerry (D-Mass.). Of course, that’s a virtual tie, but one would think that after...

LAW OF THE LAND60% of polled Americans:No homosexual marriageLatest survey shows residents rejecting same-sex matrimony by 2-to-1 margin Posted: February 9, 20045:00 p.m. Eastern © 2004 WorldNetDaily.com A new poll shows a majority of Americans do not want state laws that would make same-sex marriage legal. The survey was taken after the Massachusetts Supreme Judicial Court said last Wednesday in an advisory opinion same-sex couples are entitled to marriage and not an alternative, such as Vermont-style civil unions. Only full and equal marriage rights will fulfill its November ruling, four of the seven judges said, paving the way for the nation's first...

One thing the Bush campaign should understand: John F. Kerry is not going to repeat the mistakes of the Mondales and Dukakis’sPolls are now showing that John Kerry, the likely Democratic nominee for President, can defeat President Bush. Some of those polls show that Kerry's lead is now into double digits. Bush-Cheney campaign operatives tell supporters not to worry. Kerry is the fourth Democrat to run for the Presidency from Massachusetts since 1980, the other three being Ted Kennedy (who was defeated by Jimmy Carter in the primaries), Paul Tsongas (who lost out to Bill Clinton, despite winning in New...