Free Republic

A credit bubble is created when the amount of money borrowed exceeds the capacity of the borrower to pay it back. This concept is easy to understand, but the financial foundation of borrowing has been manipulated to an historic extreme by government. Not just through the national debt but through the agreements to create debt through public sector union contracts and municipal bond issuance.

In shocking move, Japan adopts negative interest rate as deflation fight falters The Bank of Japan unexpectedly adopted a negative interest rate policy Friday, stunning investors with a move aimed at shielding the country's sluggish economy from volatile markets and slowing global growth. The BOJ said it would use a three-tiered system to charge for excess reserves parked with the institution, an aggressive policy pioneered by the European Central Bank that penalizes banks for holding cash and encourages them to loan it out. "The BOJ will cut the interest rate further into negative territory if judged as necessary," the central...

Dear Bank of Japan, how do you spell unintended consequences: •PLANNED MARCH SALE OF 10-YEAR JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BONDS THROUGH BANKS TO BE CANCELED AMID EXPECTED BELOW-ZERO YIELDS - NIKKEI •JAPAN'S MINISTRY OF FINANCE IS EXPECTED TO ANNOUNCE WEDNESDAY THE FIRST-EVER DECISION TO CALL OFF SALES OF 10-YEAR JGBS- NIKKEI Here is the full Nikkei report on this absolute stunner of a development: The planned March sale of 10-year Japanese government bonds through banks to retail investors, municipalities and others will be canceled amid expected below-zero yields following the Bank of Japan's recent move to adopt negative interest rates. The Ministry...

Gross also recommended investors should consider Build America Bonds, which are taxable municipal bonds that carry special tax credits and federal subsidies for either the bond issuer or the bondholder. "There are a lot of closed-end funds that are selling 10-15 percent discounts to net asset values. That means you are buying something at 80-95 cents on the dollar," Gross said. "Some of these closed-end funds deal in, yes, relatively high-quality municipal bonds." Last year, the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund outperformed a comparable fund at Gross's former employer, Pimco.

I am birthing a new thing in you my children that you may bear forth great multitudes of fruit for my glory for I am expanding my tent pegs so that my Tapestry covers the earth and so now as my spirit rises up in you "Truly" you shall bud, blossom and bear fruit ripe for the picking and I shall use you as Aaron's Rod for I carry you in my hand for you know me as your divine authority and God. I am your inheritance for you are my priest and I am your pleasure and delight and...

In 2016, the Federal Reserve will pay at least $12.2 billion to U.S. and foreign banks to keep the money created via its quantitative easing programs out of the economy. If the Fed raises rates as expected next year, the amount nearly doubles to $23.1 billion. From 2008 to 2015, the Fed purchased over $4 trillion worth of bonds to stimulate growth in the economy. Risk markets responded, as is demonstrated by the close correlation between the S&P 500 and growth of the Fed's balance sheet through its bond purchases.

Brace for a wave of defaults in the oil patch. Energy companies that loaded up on debt during the oil boom are likely to have trouble paying back those loans. Oil prices have collapsed over 65% since the middle of last year to below $37 a barrel this week and there's no recovery in sight. It's fueling financial turmoil on Wall Street with Standard & Poor's Ratings Service recently warning that a stunning 50% of energy junk bonds are "distressed," meaning they are at risk of default. Overall, about $180 billion of debt is distressed. It's the highest level since...

In November, Soros Fund Management LLC, which billionaire investor George Soros chairs, pulled its roughly $500 million from an account run by Gross at Denver-based Janus Capital Group Inc . The cash withdrawals are particularly significant for Gross as his Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, which Gross began managing in October 2014, holds more than $700 million of Gross' personal money. So far this year, the Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund is posting negative returns of 2.01 percent and lagging 72 percent of its peer category, according to Morningstar.

Illinois' budget war took another whack out of the state's credit rating today as Moody's Investors Service lowered its review of state debt, moving it to Baa1 from A3. And the firm said its outlook on the state is negative—often a sign that another downgrade is coming in a few months. "The downgrades reflect weakening of the state's financial position during 2015 and our expectation that an ongoing budget stalemate will lead to further deterioration," Moody's said in a statement. ... In bumping Illinois' debt to three levels above junk, Moody's followed the lead of Fitch Ratings, which took a...

"Investors" are so desperate to hold on to short-term paper that they paid $100 for a 3-month Treasury-bill at today's auction. That is a 0% yield - for the first time ever - lower even than the auction right after Lehman's bankruptcy in Nov 2008. It is probably safe to say that NIRP is next, followed by more negative yields further to the right of the curve, as the US gradually becomes Europe. But don't worry: as Yellen admitted during her healthcare-scare speech, "nominal interest rates cannot go much below zero", just a little.

Central banks around the world are selling U.S. government bonds at the fastest pace on record, the most dramatic shift in the $12.8 trillion Treasury market since the financial crisis. Sales by China, Russia, Brazil and Taiwan are the latest sign of an emerging-markets slowdown that is threatening to spill over into the U.S. economy. Previously, all four were large purchasers of U.S. debt. Few analysts expect much higher yields in the Treasury market as a result. Foreign private purchases of U.S. debt have increased amid pessimism about the world economic outlook. U.S. firms and financial institutions continue to buy...

Shortly after the PBoC’s move to devalue the yuan, we noted with some alarm that it looked as though China may have drawn down its reserves by more than $100 billion in the space of just two weeks. That, we went on the point out, would represent a stunning increase over the previous pace of the country’s reserve draw down, which we began documenting months ahead of the devaluation (see here, for instance). We went on to estimate, based on the projected size of the RMB carry trade unwind, how large the FX reserve liquidation might need to be to...

UBS AG is backing away from its own Puerto Rico bond funds, warning clients that they can no longer use them as collateral for certain loans after the island's financial troubles resulted in downgrades by major credit rating agencies. In a July 13 letter to clients, reviewed by Reuters, UBS’ Puerto Rico arm said it would contact investors to discuss alternatives. “The firm will also reduce to zero the collateral value assigned to all Puerto Rico closed-end funds shares,” UBS wrote to investors. Puerto Rico’s Governor Alejandro Garcia Padilla dropped a bombshell on holders of its $72 billion debt in...

Sunday, Greeks should vote “no”!Hellenic voters are being asked whether they accept the terms offered by the European Union, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund to extend the bailout for Athens‘ troubled finances or give Prime Minister Tsipras a mandate to insist on a better deal.Those conditions include more cuts in government supported pensions, higher taxes and labor market reforms other European governments’ are often not inclined to accept in the conduct of their own affairs.Urging a Yes vote, European leaders and their supporters in private institutions claim more austerity would reinvigorate the Greek economy and permit Greeks to...

Trade in U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly higher open for Wall Street shares on Wednesday, as focus once again turned to rising yields in government bond markets. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury climbed to a new eight-month peak of around 2.47 percent in the European session, pulled higher as the German Bund yield pushed above the 1-percent psychological barrier. In morning London trade, stock futures for the Dow Jones industrial average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all traded in positive territory. There is no significant economic data due this session.Total weekly mortgage application volume jumped 8.4 percent...

Recently the bond rating company Moody’s Investor Service cut their ranking of Chicago to junk status. The move ticked off a lot of people in the Windy City who think Moody’s overstated the case. I agree that Moody’s is wrong… not because they went too far, but because they didn’t go far enough. Chicago is not close to bankrupt. It’s completely bankrupt. People are just afraid to say this out loud. The city’s pensions are underfunded by $20 billion. Moody’s gave a rating that reflects how the city is performing. City officials are just angry Moody’s called them out. The...

A major rating agency downgraded the city of Chicago's creditworthiness two notches to junk status, a move likely to increase the city's borrowing costs and make investors skittish as the financial world reacts to last week's Illinois Supreme Court ruling that bodes ill for city efforts to resolve its massive pension fund shortfall. Moody's Investors Service downgraded the city's debt rating on bond issues backed by property, sales and fuel tax revenue to Ba1, one notch below investment grade, from Baa2, specifically citing last week's Supreme Court ruling on an attempt to cut state pension costs. Moody's calls the Ba1...

Here’s an astonishing statistic; more than 30pc of all government debt in the eurozone – around €2 trillion of securities in total – is trading on a negative interest rate. With the advent of European Central Bank quantitative easing, what began four months ago when 10-year Swiss yields turned negative for the first time has snowballed into a veritable avalanche of negative rates across European government bond markets. In the hunt for apparently “safe assets”, investors have thrown caution to the wind, and collectively determined to pay governments for the privilege of lending to them. On a country by country...

John Maynard Keynes obit 21 April 1946 Franz Kafka obit 03 June 1924 Here’s an astonishing statistic; more than 30pc of all government debt in the eurozone – around €2 trillion of securities in total – is trading on a negative interest rate. With the advent of European Central Bank quantitative easing, what began four months ago when 10-year Swiss yields turned negative for the first time has snowballed into a veritable avalanche of negative rates across European government bond markets. In the hunt for apparently “safe assets”, investors have thrown caution to the wind, and collectively determined to pay...

In masterful article by Kristi Culpepper, a muni-bond expert who works for the state of Kentucky, Chicago’s bond financing scheme is exposed as a house of cards that postpone debt payments in return for higher interest payments over time. Amongst the questionable strategies exposed by Culpepper include using long-term financing to cover day-to-day expenses, using bonds to pay pension obligations and misappropriating returns from the interest rate swap portfolio as an “ATM” for the city. And the winners are: Chicago city employees—union employees, for whose paychecks and benefit the scheme of providing short term-cash in return for high interest payments...