Free Republic

Using old votes or voters:

The deputy head of the United Russia faction in the State Duma, Andrei Isaev, called for the opinion of the dead to be taken into account in the elections. According to Isaev, Putin said during the inauguration that the dead of past generations “have the right to vote, and this voice is the traditions that have developed and which we are obliged to honor.”

It is by taking into account the votes of the dead that Russian democracy, according to Isaev, differs from Western ones, where only the votes of living people are counted. Let us note that Isaev is not the first to make a proposal to take into account the votes of the dead in elections. Thus, in 2016, the director of the Institute of Economic Strategies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Alexander Ageev, as Fontanka wrote, “suggested thinking about the possibility of granting voting rights to 27 million Soviet citizens who died during the Second World War.”

This, according to Ageev, could be realized by providing additional ballots for the elections to their families, and thus expanding the number of voters by several more dead generations.

https://t.me/cikrf/10957

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2024

Recent satellite imagery of depleted Russian military vehicle and weapon storage facilities further indicates that Russia is currently sustaining its war effort largely by pulling from storage rather than by manufacturing new vehicles and certain weapons at scale. Newsweek reported on May 8 that a social media source tracking Russian military depots stated that satellite imagery indicates that Russia's vehicle stores have significantly decreased from pre-war levels by nearly 32 percent from 15,152 in 2021 to 10,389 as of May 2024.[11] The military depot tracker noted that Russia has pulled most from its stores of MT-LB multipurpose armored fighting vehicles (AFVs), which are down from 2,527 prewar to 922 remaining; BMD airborne amphibious tracked infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs), which are down from 637 prewar to 244 remaining; and BTR-50 armored personnel carriers (APCs), down from 125 prewar to 52 remaining. The military depot tracker noted that Russia no longer has newer model BTR-60s, 70s, and 80s in storage and that only 2,605 remain — likely referring to vehicles currently fielded — from its prewar stocks of 3,313. The military depot tracker noted that Russia is currently fielding 1,000–2,000 of its remaining MT-LBs in Ukraine. Another open-source account on X (formerly Twitter) cited satellite imagery dated May 27, 2020 and March 26, 2024 and concluded that Russia has pulled roughly 60 percent of its artillery systems at an unspecified towed artillery storage base, reportedly one of Russia's largest.[12] The source reported that about half of the remaining artillery systems at this base are likely unusable due to degradation while in storage and because many of the remaining systems are Second World War era artillery systems incompatible with modern ammunition.[13]

Russia is relying on vast Soviet-era stores of vehicles and other equipment to sustain operations and losses in Ukraine at a level far higher than the current Russian DIB could support, nor will Russia be able to mobilize its DIB to replenish these stores for many years. The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank reported on February 12 that Russia is likely able to sustain its current rate of vehicle losses (over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles annually) for at least two or three years by mainly reactivating vehicles from storage.[14] The IISS also estimated that Russia has lost over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles in 2023 and close to 8,000 armored fighting vehicles since February 2022, and that Russia likely reactivated at least 1,180 main battle tanks and about 2,470 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers pulled from storage in 2023.[15] Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported on February 4 that the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) can produce 250–300 new and modernized tanks per year and repair an additional 250–300 tanks per year.[16] Russia will likely struggle to adequately supply its units with materiel in the long term without transferring the Russian economy to a wartime footing — a move that Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to avoid thus far.[17]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-8-2024

Iranian female ministers before and after takeover of Iran by the Islamists in 1979

Iran Update, May 8, 2024

Iranian Ambassador to Russia Kazem Jalali discussed Russo-Iranian relations with Foreign Affairs Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in Tehran on May 8.[79] Jalali and Abdollahian discussed Russo-Iranian transit, financial, and banking cooperation, as well as the status of the Iran-Russia comprehensive cooperation agreement. Iranian and Russian officials have repeatedly claimed in recent months that Iran and Russia have finalized this agreement.[80]

An Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry delegation attended a meeting to discuss Caspian Sea maritime boundary lines in Baku, Azerbaijan, on May 6 and 7.[81] Delegations from Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan also attended the meeting. The Caspian littoral states have long disputed maritime boundaries in the Caspian Sea, in large part due to the presence of vast oil and gas reserves in the sea.[82]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-8-2024

Russian blogger:

At Putin's inauguration they discussed the “resurrected” Prigozhin.

Very strange conversations took place in the Kremlin Palace during the inauguration of Vladimir Putin. Several invited VIPs discussed Yevgeny Prigozhin. Allegedly, after his official death, he was seen in Africa.

Let's say right away: such conversations hardly make sense. There is not a single confirmation that Prigozhin could have survived. Although, of course, conspiracy theories abounded immediately after the plane crash. It is curious that they did not hesitate to discuss such a controversial person even at the presidential inauguration. Sources explained this by the fact that Prigozhin, on many points, satisfied the demand of both the elites and the population for a strong hand. But, fortunately or unfortunately, Prigozhin is dead. And his empire of PMC “Wagner” was transformed and received new owners.

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4054

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2024

Russian President Vladimir Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia’s need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.[1] Putin thanked Russian citizens, the residents of Russia’s “historical lands,” participants in the “special military operation,” and those who have “defended the right to be together with the motherland,” and called on Russia to unite for victory. Putin did not specify what this Russian victory entails and only vaguely referenced Russia’s “serious challenges.” Putin has long justified his effort to destroy Ukrainian statehood by claiming that Russia is fighting for “historic lands” in Ukraine and coming to the aid of “compatriots abroad” who desire to reunite with Russia.[2]

Putin likely intended to acknowledge the war without setting heightened expectations for Russian prospects in Ukraine with his vague call for victory. Putin more heavily suggested that Russia “needs” strong autocratic rule, claiming that the Russia state and socio-political system must be strong and must resist any challenges and threats in order to ensure the development, unity, and independence of Russia. Putin added that his ability to fulfill his duties as president depends on Russian unity and cohesion and warned Russians to remember historical lessons “about the tragic price of internal turmoil and upheaval.” Putin has routinely invoked historical parallels to justify his own increasingly autocratic rule by suggesting that autocracy is a Russian tradition and has regularly argued that without unchallenged autocracy Russia would lose its sovereignty.[3] Putin notably alluded in October 2022 to the Pugachev Rebellion that challenged Catherine the Great’s authority in the mid-1770s to warn deceased Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin about challenging the Kremlin, a warning that did not prevent Prigozhin from launching his own failed rebellion in June 2023.[4] Putin had observed in 2022 that the Pugachev Rebellion occurred because the “weakening of the central power” caused someone to claim that he was the tsar. Putin’s inauguration speech was otherwise filled with tired, boilerplate rhetoric and vague calls for national triumph, and his focus on internal stability indicates that Putin likely sought to emphasize to the Russian public that his fifth term as president will continue to be increasingly autocratic.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-7-2024

Iran Update, May 7, 2024

Iranian officials appear increasingly confident in their view that the Axis of Resistance has the advantage against Israel and will ultimately destroy Israel. Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami said during a speech commemorating the April 1 death of senior IRGC commander Mohammad Reza Zahedi in an Israeli airstrike that Israel is “approaching the end of its political life” despite the West's support for Israel.[21] Salami added that Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel represented a complete intelligence failure by Israel that showed how “vulnerable some countries are to a limited invasion.” Salami added that the October 7 attack pushed Israel to the “brink of death.” Salami's statement follows an interview from Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who is the commander of the Iranian Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, in which Rashid described a multi-front ground attack into Israel that could destroy the Israeli state.[22] Salami, in an earlier interview in August 2022, described a very similar concept that included successive ground attacks into Israel on multiple fronts with increasing frequency.[23]

Iranian and Axis of Resistance officials are also placing increasing emphasis on operations in the Mediterranean Sea. Salami stated that Iran and the Axis of Resistance are “closing the way for the enemy” in the eastern Mediterranean Sea.[24] Other Iranian and Axis of Resistance officials have made similar claims recently. The Houthi movement announced on May 3 that it commenced the “fourth phase” of escalation against Israel by targeting ships in the Mediterranean Sea.[25] A top Iranian military adviser to the supreme leader said in March that the Mediterranean Sea is part of Iran's strategic depth and that Tehran must accordingly “increase [its] strategic depth [by] 5,000 kilometers.”[26] Five thousand kilometers from Iran would extend to the Strait of Gibraltar. These statements suggest that Iran and its regional partners are putting an increased emphasis on the Mediterranean as an arena in which it could pressure Israel and others as needed.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-7-2024

Putin's (”Putin's”?) inauguration in 2000 and 2024.

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1787779947500556541

Russian blogger:

Putin was again offered to move the capital from Moscow to another city.

The reason, according to two of our sources in the Kremlin, is possible missile attacks from NATO countries. “If we strike at British (or some other Western) military targets, as promised , then a response is possible at about 50-60 targets on Russian territory. Moscow, of course, is among them,” said one of our interlocutors, citing the military.

Note that there was talk about a possible transfer of the capital from Moscow back in the fall of 2022 . Then a direct clash with NATO was avoided , and the need for a transfer was no longer necessary.

At the same time, there were three candidate cities for the status of temporary capital: Yekaterinburg, Kazan and Yaroslavl. There are now two candidate cities, but their sources refused to name them.

The interlocutors also noted that moving the capital is only a possible plan for now. Which is being discussed and proposed to the president “just in case, to avoid big problems if they arise.”

https://t.me/kremlin_secrets/4047

Russia may be switching sides in the Sudanese civil war to support the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) in pursuit of a Red Sea naval base for Russia, which would align Iranian and Russian Sudanese policy and create opportunities for increased Iranian-Russian cooperation in Sudan and the broader Red Sea area. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister and Special Representative for the Russian President in Africa and the Middle East Mikhail Bogdanov met with SAF head Abdel Fattah al Burhan and several other Sudanese officials during a two-day visit to Sudan on April 28 and 29.[32] Bogdanov stated that his visit could lead to increased cooperation and expressed support for “the existing legitimacy in the country represented by the [SAF-backed] Sovereign Council.”[33] France-based Sudanese news outlet Sudan Tribune reported that Russia offered “unrestricted qualitative military aid” during the meetings and also enquired about its longstanding but unimplemented agreement to establish a naval base in Port Sudan.[34]

Bogdanov’s discussions indicate that the Kremlin is willing to risk the gold it had been getting from supporting the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which are fighting a civil war against the SAF, to advance its longstanding Red Sea basing ambitions. The Wagner Group had been arming and training the RSF since the outbreak of the civil war in April 2023 due to preexisting ties owing to the RSF’s control of Sudan's gold mines.[35] However, the civil war has halted some Wagner-linked gold operations, and it is unclear if this support has continued to the same extent after the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023.[36] US officials and an independent report from non-profit groups claimed that Wagner smuggled out an estimated 32.7 tons of gold worth $1.9 billion during the first year of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.[37]

Russia has pursued a Red Sea port since 2008 to protect its economic interests in the area and improve its military posture by increasing its ability to challenge the West in the broader region, including in the Mediterranean Sea and Indian Ocean.[38] Russian President Vladimir Putin had previously made an agreement with Sudan's longtime dictator Omar al Bashir in 2017 for a Red Sea base capable of stationing 300 Russian servicemembers and four ships in exchange for various kinds of military and regime security support.[39] The Kremlin subsequently supported both the RSF and SAF after Bashir’s ouster in 2019 to pursue an implementation of the deal.[40] RSF Commander General Hemedti led these negotiations after the RSF and SAF overthrew Sudan's civilian-led transitional government in 2021, but the civil war that broke out between the RSF and the SAF once again put the deal on hold.[41] The SAF controls Sudan's coast, making it the key gatekeeper for any naval base.[42]

Russia backing the SAF would greatly benefit Iran by aligning Iranian and Russian policy and strategy in the region, which would advance Iran's own aims of securing a Red Sea base in Sudan. Iran strengthened its bilateral relations with the SAF throughout 2023 and started sending drones to the SAF in late 2023 and early 2024.[43] The Wall Street Journal reported in March 2024 that Iran unsuccessfully attempted to use these ties and promises of a helicopter-carrier ship to secure a permanent naval base in Port Sudan.[44] Iran seeks a Red Sea naval base for reasons similar to Russia's–to project power further westward. Iran would use a Red Sea base to support out-of-area naval operations and attacks on international shipping. This power projection includes threatening Red Sea shipping traffic and creating opportunities to launch attacks into Israel with systems fired from surface combatants.

The Kremlin may also align its Sudan policy with Iran to lighten its own military commitments. Russian insider sources reported in mid-April that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MOD) was redeploying Russian soldiers from unspecified MOD-affiliated Africa Corps units to the Ukrainian border.[45] These demands from the Ukraine war compound ongoing capacity issues stemming from Africa Corps’ recruitment struggles.[46] Russia aligning with Iran would enable the Kremlin to coordinate aid with Iran and potentially free the resources and soldiers that it had devoted to supporting the RSF.[47] Bogdanov met with Iranian Deputy PM Ali Bagheri Kani two days before leaving for Sudan when they discussed “the importance of bilateral ties and regional issues,” indicating they are already coordinating on the issue.[48]

The Kremlin is additionally pursuing secondary objectives, including sidelining Ukrainian and US influence in Sudan, through its outreach to the SAF. The Sudan Tribune reported that Bogdanov enquired about Sudanese military cooperation with Ukraine during his visit.[49] Ukraine has provided military support to the SAF as one of its many initiatives to boost support in Africa as many African countries have been ambivalent about or supportive of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.[50] The Wall Street Journal reported that Ukraine sent nearly 100 Ukrainian special forces soldiers to Sudan at Burhan’s request in August 2023 that have supported the SAF through occasional combat, drone support, training, and supplies provision.[51] Ukraine‘s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) claimed on April 17 that the Kremlin planned to launch an information operation accusing Ukrainian forces of illegally using Western weapons in Sudan to discredit Ukraine and undermine Western support for Ukraine.[52]

Russia's backing of the SAF also risks undermining impending US-backed peace talks.[53] The US has been urging a resumption of peace talks after US-Saudi efforts failed throughout 2023.[54] Other foreign intervention contributed to these failures by emboldening actors to take hardline negotiating stances.[55]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2024

Russian ultranationalist milbloggers have seized on protests in Armenia to forward a longstanding information operation aimed at discrediting the current Armenian government, particularly Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, for pulling away from Russia. A prominent, Kremlin-awarded milblogger claimed that ongoing protests in Armenia will not result in any meaningful policy change because the protests are allegedly “unorganized,” lack leadership, and the majority of Armenians are ambivalent about the issue.[120] Other milbloggers responded to the first milblogger largely accusing Western countries of “corrupting” Armenian youth with democratic values so they do not feel “craving or nostalgia for the Soviet past” and similarly influencing youth in other countries, including those not previously part of the Soviet Union.[121] Russian-Armenian relations have been deteriorating since Russian peacekeepers failed to prevent the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023, and the Kremlin recently explicitly threatened Armenia if Armenia does not resume active engagement in the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and resume its pro-Kremlin alignment.[122]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-6-2024

Iran Update, May 6, 2024

A senior Iranian military officer described how Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” could destroy Israel with a multi-front ground attack. Maj. Gen. Gholam Ali Rashid, who is the commander of the Iranian Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, discussed the Iranian theory on how to destroy Israel in an interview with English-language, Tehran-based Iran Daily on May 5.[24] Rashid asserted that the Hamas attack into Israel in October 2023 highlighted Israeli vulnerability and the weakness of the IDF. Rashid argued that Hamas’ attack affirmed that the Axis of Resistance could destroy Israel by launching surprise attacks from Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank simultaneously. He added that such an attack would involve 10,000 fighters from Lebanon, 10,000 fighters from the Gaza Strip, and 2,000–3,000 from the West Bank. Rashid likened such an attack to the Beit ol Moghaddas operation that Iran conducted to liberate Khorramshahr during the Iran-Iraq War. This interview with Rashid is especially noteworthy given his role in commanding the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, which is the highest Iranian operational headquarters and is responsible for joint and wartime operations.[25]

Rashid’s comments echo a similar strategic concept that IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami articulated in August 2022.[26] Salami described his idea of how to destroy Israel during an interview with the official website of the Office of the Supreme Leader. Salami stated that the Axis of Resistance should conduct ground attacks into Israel from multiple fronts and with increasing frequency. Salami argued that such attacks would generate internal displacement and instability and ultimately collapse the Israeli state. Rashid’s interview suggests that Iranian military leadership is continuing to develop this idea and refining it based on lessons from the Israel-Hamas war.

Rashid’s comments also signaled confidence that the Axis of Resistance has the advantage against Israel and will ultimately defeat it in the current war.[27] This message was likely part of an information operation meant for Western consumption given that Rashid gave these comments to an English-language outlet.

Rashid separately repeated the Iranian regime argument that it could have inflicted greater damage on Israel during its drone and missile attack on April 13, 2024.[28] Rashid argued that Israel would collapse without Western support and that 80 percent of the Iranian projectiles would have struck Israel if the United States and its partners did not intercept any. Rashid also repeated the regime assertion that the IRGC Aerospace Force used only “20 percent of its offensive capabilities” in the attack.[29] Other senior IRGC officials have made similar arguments in recent days, emphasizing that Iran could have launched a larger drone and missile attack than it did against Israel.[30]

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-6-2024

Iran Update, May 4, 2024

N.S.
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-4-2024

Iran Update, May 5, 2024

ditto
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/iran-update-may-5-2024

Russian blogger

Authorities are covering up the rape of Russell Bentley. Probably the wrong suspects were detained

The story of the murder of Russell Bentley (call sign “Texas”) in the DPR has finally gone public. It is worth thanking the general director of Russia Today, Dmitry Kiselev, for his position. We agree that the murder and rape of “Texas” must be investigated. As we reported, the American was suspected of espionage. He was detained in Donetsk, raped and killed. The wife received threats.

Federal media write that the investigation into the murder of “Texas” is being conducted by employees of the Main Military Investigation Department of the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation. Allegedly, the suspects have already been detained. However, according to our data, the real culprits of what happened have not yet returned from vacation. The authorities are trying to pin the murder on innocent people, and are carefully hiding information about the rape. This cannot be done if we want to live in a normal country. Justice and truth must prevail. Therefore, the Investigative Committee must understand this whole story and detain the real culprits in the death of Russell Bentley.

earlier https://freerepublic.com/focus/news/4042550/posts?page=6280#6280

sorry sloppy writing
se => see
I does not => It does not

I does not create radiation, but:

Jupiter’s particle radiation field is 20,000 times larger than Earth’s Van Allen belts, and 1,000 times more intense than Saturn’s. The collosal planet rotates once every 10 hours (a Jupiter day). Jupiter pulls its magnetic field right along with it. The magnetic field hauls charged particles around Jupiter at blistering speed. And Europa orbits Jupiter in the heart of that torrent of particles.

Jupiter’s magnetic field is the largest and most intense in the solar system, aside from the Sun. Its magnetotail sometimes reaches Saturn’s orbit. The magnetic field traps electrons and protons – charged particles. Europa Clipper’s radiation monitors will study those particles.

https://europa.nasa.gov/spacecraft/instruments/radiation-monitoring-study/