Free Republic

Bulgaria just passed a law to nationalize the Burgas oil refinery, owned by Lukoil. No compensation for Lukoil.

There will likely be a cascade of such nationalizations over the next two weeks, before the 21 November deadline. All of the nations are incentivized to do it - sanctioned theft of Russia’s assets. The chance of a lifetime, for multi-billion dollar windfall profits.

Russia has been doing this to foreign companies in Russia over the last few years of war, but now the shoe is on the other foot, and all their global oil and gas investments are getting stripped in one fell swoop.

No wonder that Lavrov is in the hot seat, as so many countries are simultaneously forced to choose between Russia or the West, and their own self interest.

In my opinion, the likely purpose of President Trump bringing the leaders of the C-5 Central Asian Nations to DC, was to prepare them to do the same to Russian assets in their countries, and coordinate support against the likely Russian retaliation.

There is a record amount of Russian oil on the water now, as many tankers have been turned away from unloading, including India, China and Turkey.

These new sanctions have produced a sudden and massive train wreck for Russia, in the money that was coming in, and the oil that was going out.

Likely not coincidentally, the 21 November sanctions deadline is also when seasonal temps in the West Siberian oil fields normally enter sustained periods of sub-zero hard freezing.

A perfect confluence of events for Ukraine’s kinetic sanctions to inflict Strategic damage to Russia - as if it was all masterfully planned that way. Kind of a big deal, kind of a work of art.

The world will likely be a safer place, come Spring, with Russia structurally diminished.

A huge strike on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure last night - one of the largest of the war. Widespread electrical blackouts, several centralized heating plants offline, and substations supporting Nuclear Power Plants hit.

Kyiv Independent (8 Nov):

“Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast faced emergency power outages after a new large-scale Russian attack overnight on Nov. 8, which targeted Ukraine’s energy and gas infrastructure.

Ukrainian forces downed 406 out of the 458 drones, including Shahed-type attack drones, launched by Russia overnight, the Air Force reported. Russia also launched 45 cruise and ballistic missiles, nine of which were downed, the statement said.

The cities of Kremenchuk in Poltava Oblast, Kyiv, Dnipro, Kharkiv, and Chernihiv served as the primary target of Russian attacks. Explosions were also heard in the city of Sumy, as well as in Odesa Oblast.”

“ What lavrov doink?😎”

Avoiding windows? Staying on the ground floor, or better yet, in the basement?

Switching from tea to stronker drink?

Seems like the situation is just getting impossible to finesse anymore, even for an experienced pro.

The Central Bank Chief may be the next one to crumble under Mission Impossible. Or maybe the Defense Minister. Some other heads will likely roll, before the ax falls to Putin.

“Layoffs at Russia’s primary tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod”

Perhaps they are constrained by the supply of serviceable inputs, from the old Soviet storage running dry.

If it because of lack of money from the State, that would be a strong indicator of impending economic crisis.

Funding the Defense Industrial Base, was like Russia’s one thing.

“Pokrovsk was a processing center”

Better than a 5 to 1 ratio of Russian to Ukrainian casualties in Pokrovsk. The general 3 to 1 ratio of attacker to defender is generally magnified in urban combat, making urban environments inherently less suited for those on offense to wage attritional war.

Every day of the week.

“Now Pokrovsk is a “small town”. (Population about 6,000, down from about 60,000 pre-war)

Still more than a small town (2,500), but less than a small city (100,000).

Still quite little, for a supposed powerful country, after so much time, and so many casualties.

But Putin needs to claim that he is winning something. Even if it is exceedingly small, it is the most that the rump of the Russian military can aspire to, so it will have to do.

We don’t know the full deal worked out with Hungary, to wean off of Russian energy, but part of it is their nuclear power.

OilPrice.com (7 Nov):

“Hungary will buy U.S. nuclear fuel for the first time to use at a Russia-built nuclear power plant in the country, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said ahead of a meeting of the U.S. and Hungarian leaders…

…“This is the first time in Hungary’s history that we will purchase American nuclear fuel,” the foreign minister added.

Hungary will buy U.S. nuclear fuel for the Paks nuclear power plant, built by Rosatom, which was awarded in 2014 an expansion project at the site without a tender.”

What Lukoil doink?

Getting suddenly and violently ripped apart. There is nothing incremental in the new Trump sanctions - Russia simply loses everything. Beyond Bone-Crushing.

Now the feast is not only on Russia’s market share, but wholesale confiscation of Russian assets globally. The Doom of Putin.

Gunvor is not being allowed to take ownership of Lukoil’s many overseas subsidiaries, and no one else can in the next two weeks, before President Trump’s sanctions go into effect (21 November).

Lukoil can no longer operate them, and can not be paid for them. The local Governments will have to nationalize them, or allow them to close.

Russian owners (Putin inner circle oligarchs, who must kick back cash to Putin) lose the equity, they lose the ongoing hard currency revenue, they lose the overseas offices and bank accounts and local employees; that help them source and smuggle sanctioned goods.

They lose the political influence that they were able to wield in those many countries, through those big money operations. Bulgaria, Romania, Iraq, the UAE, the USA, Kazakhstan, etc., etc..

Russia loses everything. In two weeks from today (it has already started in several subsidiaries).

It will happen on a Friday, but eventually one of these many apocalyptic Doom events for Russia will happen to fall on a Tuesday, as Kiryandil keeps requesting.

Gunvor just withdrew their bid for Lukoil’s overseas assets, after the White House called them a Kremlin puppet (which probably jammed up their efforts to get bank underwriting of the deal).

Now Lukoil leadership will be consumed with a chaotic situation among its many varied foreign holdings, in an impossibly short timeframe.

Some, like it’s Bulgarian refinery, will likely be nationalized. The rest will likely suffer varied dispositions (hastily chopped up), that will make it harder to reconstruct after the war.

Lukoil is so screwed.

President Trump gave Putin an off ramp, but he chose to not take it.

Now it is Find Out time.

“Tartus and Hmeimim”

The Syrian President was in Moscow recently, talking about honoring Russia’s long term leases.

Maybe he needs a counter weight to Israel, who has hammered his military and bombed Damascus, maybe he wants Assad’s head back, maybe he wants a payoff.

The Middle East is always so tangled up…

Both Primorsk and Ust Luga, the main Russian oil export facilities on the Baltic, have been previously hit, and are within range.

Novorossiysk and Tuapse are (were) the big ones on the Black Sea.

The Arctic ports freeze in during Winter (around this time), and the Far East are out of range, but smaller.

A few big targets. There has been a long time to plan.

Whataboutism does not change the evil of Russia’s atrocious war crimes, or the threat that it poses to the USA and our Allies.

“Internet access in Russia will soon require a passport”

Welcome to USSR 2.0 - only Russia included this time.

“In capitalism, if you want that, you need to provide the same product at a lower price”

A lower price could be achieved by buying stolen goods, the product of child slaves, or Russian blood oil, that funds the killing of innocents by the thousands.

Such practices are just not morally acceptable.

“Hitler was able to fund his war for five and half years without oil export revenue”

Yes, the same mechanisms are also being employed by Russia - spending off reserves, raising taxes, increasing debt and printing money.

In 1944, Germany had the “fastest growing” economy in Europe, due to the money printing effect, even though massive dislocations were accumulating, like decline of the non-defense sectors, and high inflation.

Both Fascist Germany and Putin’s Russia have also made extensive use of forcing debt onto their banking system and privately owned firms, which is a less common means of war funding.

Russia is well down the road of exhausting those other funding options, not just starting when the oil revenue runs down. Oil revenue is of outsized importance to Russia, relative to other countries in history.

NATO Secretary General Rutte reports that NATO now outproduces Russia for ammunition (I assume this refers to Artillery shells).

That was like, Russia’s one thing.

Gone.

The video that you (Dennis) linked (Jay in Kyiv) reports full closure of both the export terminal of Tuapse, and the Tuapse oil refinery.

Those are big effects - the explosion at the port must have been massive.

Bullseye on Russia’s sixth largest refinery last night, 300 miles from Ukraine. The whole refinery is shut down today (over 5% of Russia’s total refining capacity). The main cracking unit and several storage tanks were hit, and set on fire.

Winter is coming.

Europe is well stocked with fuel, and now has plenty of operational spare capacity to import oil and gas by sea. Natural gas prices are within 2% of a year ago, and oil is cheaper.

Russia on the other hand, is experiencing blackouts, fuel shortages, and grim prospects, just as their nights begin to dip below zero, and the darkness of Northern Winter descends.

Putin’s former “energy weapon” has now been fully turned onto Russia.

Putin is The Doom of Russia.

Rosneft and Lukoil are rapidly following Gazprom, from long term cash cow, into money losing wards of the State.

Because of Putin.

“Why does anyone care which side wins?”

Why does anyone care which side wins in any crime (murder, child rape or robbery)?

Am I my brother’s keeper?