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Posts by Godzilla

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  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/23/2024 6:29:42 AM PDT · 530 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    This will be my last post until Monday of next week. Will be on the road for Memorial Day.

    Meanwhile, after posting this I’ll be pullout out my snow shovel to deal with the joys of spring time here in the Redoubt and shovel my sidewalk from the latest snowstorm :)


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    ***
    JPMorgan Chase is planning to rollout a biometric payment system and make it available to all U.S. retailers by early next year. This will enable shoppers to make purchases without pulling physical paper (fiat currency) or plastic (credit/debit cards) out of their wallets. All they will need to do is submit to having their palms or faces scanned upon entry into a retail store.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbirch/2024/04/03/jpmorgan-chase-are-right-to-be-bullish-on-biometrics-in-retail/?sh=167d6dc650da

    OBSERVATION - Biometrics as a means to secure the digital ID and credit system trudges on under the push by WEF/globalist affiliated mega corporations like JPMorgan. They will push this forward, incrementally, until the full policy is in effect with no other options. And by doing so, bypass reluctant governmental institutions.

    ***
    House republicans are demanding details concerning the impending WHO pandemic ‘treaty’. I don’t expect any response from the WH any time this decade on that request.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    Some unidentified, unnamed ‘source’ in the FBI claims that lethal measures order was also given when biden’s homes were searched. The level of skepticism broke the meter.

    ***
    13 countries in Oregon have now voted to join Idaho, consisting of about 2/3 of the area of the state. This action joins similar movements in Washington State (Liberty State) and Kalifornia. Any real split is years down the road and will be fought legislatively and legally tooth and nail by the leftists in the uber-blue urban concentrations along the coast.

    Personally, I’d like to see a completely separate state be formed. There would be some shifting in the House, but the big one would likely be the solidification of additionally conservative republicans in the Senate - potentially shifting the power away from the democrats for a generation.


    Economy-

    Federal Reserve officials said earlier this month that they are prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation doesn’t show further signs of cooling, according to minutes from the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released on Wednesday.

    “Various participants mentioned a willingness to tighten policy further should risks to inflation materialize in a way that such an action became appropriate,” the minutes said.

    The minutes also highlighted that several participants believe household and business spending may need to decline for inflation to sustainably reach the Fed’s two percent goal.

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/05/22/fed-minutes-may/

    OBSERVATION - If household and business spending decline more - we will definite collapse into a hard recession. There are so many sectors of the economy that were damaged from the plandemic and follow-on policies of the Fed and the regime that it will take years to untangle. The high fed rates alone are bleeding the economy hard and fast already.

    Further note - IF the fed continues to freeze the rate or even raise it to deal with the rising inflation rate - you can bet your retirement fund that Wall Street will freakout and take a plunge, as many WS speculators are counting on rate decreases in the near future - keeping the market high.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    My bad, yesterday I said the Trump hush money trial was going to the jury. Actually, closing arguments are set for next week before that happens.

    ***
    As it stands right now, biden will not appear on Ohio’s November presidential ballot without major intervention by the DNC and potential court challenges. Will Ohio’s republicans show backbone or collapse? The republican controlled Ohio legislature current is unwilling to make a change in the law to accommodate the DNCs much later than usual national convention.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    biden announced that he is canceling $7.7 billion in student debt for 160,000 borrowers. This in a gross violation of the USSC judgement against the practice. Nothing will happen- as the US under the leftists are slipping into a new - lawlessness realm.. Or rather, a “new” law realm.


    Illegal Immigration –

    White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Wednesday said it is not Joe Biden’s job to secure the US border amid an invasion of millions of military-age men from the most dangerous parts of the world.

    “Why should he have to do it unilaterally?” Karine Jean-Pierre said.
    Jacqui Heinrich replied, “He took unilateral action before to undo [President Trump’s border security]!”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/why-should-he-have-do-it-wow-white/

    ***
    Reports that Kalifornia is becoming the hot spot for illegal penetrations. What is also being reported around the inter webs is that the predominant illegal demographic entering are from middle eastern and asia (china) and fewer latin american illegals.


    China –

    China launched exercise Joint Sword 2024A, surrounding Taiwan from all directions. Chinese media reports the exercise will be held from 23-24 May & focuses on “joint sea-air combat-readiness patrols, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, & joint precision strikes on key targets.”

    China has reportedly begun live fire drills surrounding Taiwan, including its outlying islands such as Kinmen. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command stated that the drills are “a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces”.

    Taiwan’s military is responding to Chinese exercises by deploying supersonic Hsiung Feng III (HF-3) anti-ship missile batteries & air defense systems around Taiwan.

    45 PLA aircraft were detected around the island—26 crossed the ADIZ & came as close as 41 nautical miles. Largest incursion of the year. 15 Navy ship, 16 Coast Guard ships are also in the region.

    The Taiwanese Coast Guard and Chinese navy are currently having a standoffs in the Taiwan Strait

    OBSERVATION -

    This is a significant exercise by itself. The deployment of Chinese forces clearly shows the concept towards a blockade of the Island versus a direct, amphibious assault. The last exercise of this size was the one after pelosi visited the island.

    I’ve noted the goals and intent of theses Chinese exercises for a while now, but in summary they ‘

    1. Normalize large-scale activity around Taiwan, to deceive about future intentions.
    2. Bullies and seeks to coerce the democratic government of Taiwan.
    3. Projects an air of “inevitability” to the region/world about its eventual takeover of Taiwan.

    One aggressive action that may soon happen is the seizure of the Taiwan administered island of Kinmen, located very close to the mainland. That seizure would be another tool to place pressure on Taiwan to acquiesce or surrender to Chinese terms.

    A potential flash point in this exercise is the maneuvering of Chinese naval / coast guard assets into Taiwanese controlled regions. As noted above, Chinese vessels have been warned to stay back. Water cannons won’t be used, but real cannons could.

    China has the capability to mount a significant blockade of Taiwan right now as well as seize Kinmen Island. I’m on the lookout to see what the Chinese Naval order of battle for this exercise is and in particular the deployment of any of the aircraft carriers.


    Russia -

    NUCLEAR THREATS –

    Russia is conducting a tactical nuclear drill near Ukraine, an exercise announced about two weeks ago. An example of putin’s “escalate to de-escalate’ policy is designed to be a warning against growing NATO involvement in the Ukraine war and potential use of weapon systems in direct attacks on Russian territory.

    ***
    Russia’s top arms control diplomat Wednesday dismissed as fake news an assertion by the United States that Russia had launched a weapon into low-Earth orbit that was capable of inspecting and attacking other satellites.
    The Kremlin has flatly denied assertions by U.S. officials that Moscow is developing a space-based anti-satellite nuclear weapon. But on Tuesday, U.S. Space Command said Russia had launched an anti-satellite weapon.
    Russia’s actions in space conformed to international law, the Kremlin said Wednesday.

    https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/space-nuclear-weapon/2024/05/22/id/1165685/

    ***
    Russian Military Trains have recently been spotted near the City of Yefremov in the Tula Region heading Southeast towards the Border with the Sumy Region of Northeastern Ukraine. The equipment all have the new tactical marking seen recently during Russian Offensive operations in the Kharkiv Region suggesting that there may be a similar operation into the Sumy Region.

    Some OSINT observers are noting a similarity to the build-up prior to the start of the war.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 70’s and fair.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Andriyivka village of Donetsk region, southeast of Chasiv Yar.

    “Generic” missile strikes in Dnipro and Kharkiv.

    Fighting continues to be fierce in the Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar regions.

    Outlook —

    From current reports, it seems that Russian action are shifting somewhat in the Chasiv Yar region to the south, concentrating on a potential attempt to by pass to a degree Ukraine defenses and further stretch Ukraine forces. Two towns in that area have fallen to Russian forces in the last few days supporting that observation.

    Potential Russian push into and towards Sumy may be building up. If it is in the cards, such an action may be weeks away though I don’t currently have good numbers on the present force buildup - possibly again in the neighborhood of 40,000. The big question is did the bureaucrats pocket the money that was supposed to be put into building defensive barriers like what appears to have happened in Kharkiv, or have they properly constructed barriers and defensive positions?


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Operations continue to expand in Rafah.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    The International Court of Justice will issue its decision tomorrow, Friday, regarding the request for a ceasefire in Gaza

    ***
    Videos have been released showing Hamas capturing and abusing female Israeli soldiers.

    ***
    The U.S. has established an air defense system at the Gaza pier. Pictures posted by multiple sources online show what appears to be a C-RAM system being present at the pier.

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    The Israeli army is expanding its operations in Rafah to new areas and approaches the city center. Israeli troops advanced into Rafah’s Brazil and Shaboura neighborhoods, following “information on terror targets in the area,” the military says. The Israeli army says the operation in Rafah is being carried out in an “accurate manner while preventing harm to the civilian population as much as possible, after the civilians have evacuated the area

    Renewed violent clashes between Hamas fighters and Israeli forces inside Jenin camp in N Gaza.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    About 30 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Israeli positions in the Upper Galilee

    Israel army says it has killed a senior Hezbollah official who was in charge of developing strategic weapons in an Israeli drone strike on a vehicle near the town of Kafr Dajjal, just south of Nabatieh in southern Lebanon.
    Hezbollah confirms the killing of one of its members in an Israeli raid on Nabatieh.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    The Commander of the Revolutionary Guard reportedly met with representatives of Hamas, Islamic Jihad, the Houthis, and Hezbollah.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Germany said Wednesday it will abide by an International Criminal Court arrest warrant and detain Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should he step foot on German soil.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    Operations throughout Gaza and in particular Rafah continue at a high tempo and will continue to do so for the immediate future. Not noted in many of my posts but present in UN et al complaints are Israeli attacks on hospitals. Like demonstrated before, Hamas likely has occupied the hospitals for military bases, removing protections.

    IRGC meeting up with the various “Islamic Resistance” factions is likely two fold. One is to re-establish command relations that have been degraded by Israeli attacks (IRGC and Hezbollah in particular) as well as to try to stimulate more actions by the ‘resistance’, or at least look at other avenues of attack.


    Central / South America General-

    Ecuadorean President Daniel Noboa declared a new state of emergency in seven provinces on Wednesday.

    A rising number of violent deaths and crimes was cited as the reason for the measure in Guayas, El Oro, Santa Elena, Manabi, Sucumbios, Orellana and Los Rios provinces, and one area of the Azuay province.
    The measure will be in effect for 60 days according to a decree signed by the Noboa.

    A state of emergency was declared in January after Jose Adolfo Macias, a dangerous drug boss, escaped from maximum security detention.
    The president said the country was in a an, “internal armed conflict” and ordered the army to “neutralize” 22 criminal groups.
    However, the Constitutional Court ruled the previous emergency declaration in five provinces was not sufficiently justified.

    https://www.dw.com/en/ecuador-state-of-emergency-declared-in-seven-provinces/a-69155318?maca=en-rss-en-top-1022-rdf

    OBSERVATION - January, Ecuador was almost borderline civil war. The escape of Macias sparked significant fighting between a relatively unified (under Macias) gang army and govt forces. After a couple weeks of fighting the gangs were partially defeated. Now having regrouped, gangs have been pressing for control again. Ecuador is also attempting to duplicate the successful anti-gang program of El Salvador, which has made that country one of the safest in the region.

    Reality for the US is that the narco-terrorist element has been growing almost exponentially in the US due to the open border policy of biden, and similar conflicts here in the US may soon be on the way.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/22/2024 5:55:14 AM PDT · 526 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Biden administration authorized lethal force against a former president.


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    ***

    Schwab announced his intentions to step down as executive chairman in an email to staff on Tuesday that was shared with Semafor by a person connected to the organization.
    The change in his role is pending approval by the Swiss government but should be finalized ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in 2025.
    Schwab, now 86, will be transitioning to a role as non-executive chairman.

    OBSERVATION - There is no clue as to who will be replacing him, however, his family holds multiple high level positions in the WEF, ensuring that his legacy will remain intact and the guiding force for the globalist cause.
    That he is stepping down at such a pivotal moment of the WEFs efforts at world control is interesting to ponder, as he is the face of WEF.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    Judge Aileen Cannon on Tuesday unsealed numerous motions related to Jack Smith’s classified documents case against Trump.
    One filing revealed Biden’s FBI authorized the use of deadly force during their raid on Mar-a-Lago in August 2022.

    “Should FPOTUS [Trump] arrive at MAL [Mar-a-Lago], FBI MM EM and OSCs will be prepared to engage with FPOTUS and USSS Security Team.”
    “Should USSS provide resistance or interfere with FBI timeline or accesses, FBI MM EM will engage with [redacted] and [redacted] will engage with USSS POC’s per existing liaison relationships.” (they had an onsite medical team available in case it got deadly!!!!)

    Merrick Garland PERSONALLY APPROVED the raid on Mar-A-Lago

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/breaking-newly-unsealed-doc-reveals-biden-fbi-authorized/

    The FBI on Tuesday evening issued a rare statement after court documents revealed the Bureau was authorized to use deadly force when it raided Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence in August 2022. In the statement the FBI claimed the authorization of deadly force on former President Trump is just “standard protocol.”

    OBSERVATION - This shows just how dangerous the regime has become - willing to have govt agents shoot to kill a former president. Many who know better is saying that this so called “standard protocol” is nothing more than a steaming pile of bovine excrament. Heavy handed FBI/DoJ tactics on other deemed hostile to the regime makes it clear that these agencies have fallen into the dark side. Nothing would start a hot CW2 quicker than FBI shooting Trump.
    The fact that they had on site medical teams anticipating shooting is further damning.

    It is apparent that the DoJ/Biden regime was actually HOPING that something would happen.

    One of my greatest concerns in the months leading up to the Nov elections is an attempt on the life of Trump. Never would have i considered the govt itself seeking a situation where FBI was empowered to kill Trump. That river is behind us now and it is apparent now more than ever that the regime will stoop to what ever acts necessary to retain power and prevent the re-election of Trump. Along these lines I see three disturbing potentials -

    1 One of the kangaroo courts ruling against trump and attempting to have him jailed with no bail on appeals. Then bad things can happen in the prision/jail.

    2 Assignation attempt(s) prior to the election and potential extra-legal actions by the now rogue and treasonous DoJ and its FBI brownshirts against Trump going beyond the current law fare.

    3 Post election period where biden, with his last remaining months in office, ignites some sort of national crisis in order to declare martial law and prevent Trump from taking office in January 2026.

    Each one could trigger a hot CW2 scenario.

    Never in my life did I ever think I’ve have to be looking at these possibilities.


    Economy-

    The median US home sale price hits a new record high of $433,558 in April 2024.
    The median sale price increased 6.2% year-over-year due to a lack of new listings, according to Redfin.
    On the other hand, the total number of houses available for sale sits at a 4-year high but largely due to many homes being overpriced.
    Meanwhile, the median household income in the US was $75,000 in 2023.

    OBSERVATION - Housing market continues to be sick and an impediment to any economic recovery.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    Trump’s NYC trial is going to the jury.

    Smith’s days in the classified document trial may be numbered as released court documents paint an increasing picture of gross corruption and incompetence by Smith.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    AP reports that Biden is releasing 1 million barrels of gasoline from a Northeast reserve in a bid to lower prices at the pump.

    Using our national security measures to buy votes.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said he will bring the Senate Border Act back to the Senate floor on Thursday after it stalled in the House earlier this year.

    OBSERVATION - Basically, this bill ‘permits’ over 1 million illegals to enter the county every year, spends billions in freebies to these illegals and promises to ‘close’ the border - with no means to do so - if crossings exceed 4000/day.
    It is election political pandering to try to flip the current view of the American people that the democrats are the cause of the current illegal crisis.

    ***
    (FO) According to the Drug Enforcement Administration’s (DEA) National Drug Threat Assessment 2024, the Sinaloa Cartel and Cartel Jalisco Nueva Generacion (CJNG) have a presence in all fifty U.S. states and have “effectively eliminated” any competition in the United States.

    The report said the Sinaloa Cartel primarily purchases fentanyl and methamphetamine precursor chemicals from China through a variety of methods, but India is emerging as a major source country for chemical precursors.

    OBSERVATION - The natural result of no effective border control. We already knew a lot of this from recent reports of heavy cartel presence on Indian Reservations.


    Russia -

    *****
    Russian authorities have made a unilateral decision to change the sea borders of Russia with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. This follows from the draft government resolution published on the portal of legal acts of the Russian Federation.

    According to the document drafted by the Russian defense ministry, Russia intends to declare part of the water area in the east of the Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region as its internal sea waters.

    OBSERVATION - Some are noting that Russia did something similar in regards to Ukraine and the Black Sea just prior to the invasion. The rubber will hit the road is Russia attempts to enforce these declarations.

    ***
    Russia last week launched a satellite that U.S. intelligence officials believe to be a weapon capable of inspecting and attacking other satellites, the U.S. Space Command said on Tuesday as the Russian spacecraft trails a U.S. spy satellite in orbit.

    Russia’s Soyuz rocket blasted off from its Plesetsk launch site some 500 miles (800 km) north of Moscow on May 16, deploying in low-Earth orbit at least nine satellites including COSMOS 2576, a type of Russian military “inspector” spacecraft U.S. officials have long condemned as exhibiting reckless space behavior.

    “We have observed nominal activity and assess it is likely a counterspace weapon presumably capable of attacking other satellites in low Earth orbit,” a USSPACECOM spokesperson said in a statement to Reuters.

    https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/space-russia/2024/05/21/id/1165657/

    OBSERVATION - Space is becoming more and more militarized. Those who laughed at Trump’s creation of a Space Command are now silenced to the fact that he recognized the growing threat and the need for a unified command to address it. The fact that democrats under biden have created a cluster of the operation proves it further.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 70’s and fair.

    RUMINT –
    NATO reportedly ruminating about sending troops into Ukraine to train Ukrainian forces.

    Further rumors that Ukraine is about ready to launch a counter attack into the Russia advances north of Kharkiv.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Another day of fierce fighting along the eastern front. Russian Ministry of Defense claims Klischiivka, located south of Chaziv Yar, as being captured by Russian troops. Russian missiles also apparently have hit Dinpro, Kharkiv and Sumy.

    Outlook —

    Another day of hard fighting on the fronts. Russian successes in their spring offensive are slowing very quickly and perhaps Ukraine now has the capability to launch some limited counter attacks in the Kharkiv region. As noted in previous posts, Russia is approaching its high water make on the current offensive.

    Both countries are probably calculating their next round of deep attacks, so the results of those attacks will have to be seen after they occur. For Russia, the clock is running out as resupply of ADA systems and munitions are being rushed into country.

    The final big question mark is when US will give approval for Ukraine to use systems like ATACAMS to strike Russian territory proper. That could be a major game changer, forcing Russia to widely restructure its logistics, command and troop locations, and distributions.


    Europe / NATO General –

    Some European nations recognizing a palestinian “state”.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Norway, Ireland and Spain announced recognition of a palestinian ‘state’.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    Norway, Ireland and Spain have announced that they will recognize the presence of a Palestinian ‘state’. Governments of Slovenia, Belgium, Norway and Malta are expected to follow throughout the week.

    Israel recalls its ambassadors from European countries that recognize a Palestinian state, freezing money transfer to the Palestinian Authority

    ***
    The AP said Israeli authorities had shut down its live camera feed showing Gaza and seized its equipment in what it decried as an “abusive use by the Israeli government of the country’s new foreign broadcasters law.” The equipment was later returned.

    ***
    None of the aid that President Joe Biden has sent to Gaza via a floating pier that the U.S. Military constructed has reached the Palestinian people, a U.S. official said this week.

    Pentagon spokesperson Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said on Tuesday that none of the 569 tons of aid transported to Gaza since last week has reached the Palestinian people.

    Other reports state in general that Hamas has succeeded in stealing as much as 70% of the aid that has come into Gaza since the war began.

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Intense fighting reported in the center of Rafah as the IDF expands operations there.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Jordanian Foreign Minister: We appreciate the decision of European countries to recognize the Palestinian state

    The Secretary-General of the Arab League calls on countries that do not recognize Palestine to follow the example of Norway, Ireland and Spain

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    Operations throughout Gaza and in particular Rafah continue.

    The recognitions of a palestinian ‘state’ by some European countries will be drawing lines in the sand as such recognition carries little in the way oction. Norway, Ireland and Spain are all currently anti-Israeli to begin with. I’ve not seen just what territory this so called ‘state’ entails, but it likely uses the radical pre-1967 borders as a starting point. Pro-hamas elements in the UN may eventually be able to leverage these declarations for leverage in the Security Council.


    Iran –

    No internal Iranian talk about any Israeli involvement in the helicopter crash over the weekend.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/21/2024 6:04:56 AM PDT · 523 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    Nothing really jumping out overnight. Kind of a scary quiet.


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    See “Illegal Immigration” below on the increasing threat from the large increase in illegals from China.


    Economy-

    Gold and silver prices keep pressing towards new highs.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    Judge Merchan totally lost all composure at yesterday’s trial with defense witness Costello: shouting “GET OUT OF THE COURTROOM, NOW! “
    There should be a mistrial declared - but that would show unfavorably on the judge who is clearly partisan.


    Illegal Immigration –

    According to a The New York Post report, migrants are rushing to cross border now in case Biden loses in November: ‘We don’t want Trump’

    ***
    (FO) During a House Homeland Security Oversight Subcommittee hearing, Rep. Dan Bishop (R-NC) said there was a 1,100% increase in Chinese nationals crossing the Southern border from 2022 to 2023. In the last seven months Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) reported 27,496 encounters with Chinese nationals at the border.

    OBSERVATION- This is very concerning. China has infiltrated spies and potential terrorists into the country for year - many being sent as ‘students’ in our colleges and universities. It is common knowledge that corporate spying and technology thieft was the biggie at the time. Now times have changed and China senses weakness in the US combined with a far more aggressive posture, the likelihood of terrori and sabotage in increasing.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 70’s and fair.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukrainian air defense shot down 28 of 29 Shahed drones overnight, mostly targeting Kharkiv and Odesa.

    Russian army launched S300 missiles at Vovchansk

    Ukraine hit a petroleum facility in Voznesenovka village of Belgorod region with a drone strike

    Combat on the ground continues to be intense in the Kharkiv, Ocheretyne and Chaziv Yar regions, with Russia only seeing slight ground gains at the high cost of men and equipment. The diversion of S300 missile attacks to Vovchansk indicates that Russia is having difficulty pushing the Kharkiv thrust any further. Rumors continue that Russia is putting more troops opposite of Sumy. This action drains forces available to reinforce the existing fight.

    It still appears that the Russian Spring offensive is reaching its high water mark, though it may be several more weeks before Russia reverts to a defensive operation to retain territory gained.

    By all reports, Russia has more troops in theater than when the war began. This places Ukraine at a population disadvantage which may also be the case for Russian successes this spring.

    Outlook —

    Combat will continue to grind at the major fronts. Unless something very dramatic happens, there is no threat of a major breakthrough by Russian forces. This threat is decreasing as they are increasingly moving their reserve forces into the current battle.

    The only wild cards I see is in the realm of the ‘deep battle’ of drones and missiles.


    Europe / NATO General –

    The EU is planning to start formal accession talks for Moldova and Ukraine on June 25th.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - ICC issues arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gantz and Sinwar.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    Israel PM Netanyahu says ICC arrest warrant request is “outrageous”, says it will not “stop us” in the fight against Hamas

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Israeli forces besiege Al Awda Hospital in Jabalia Camp for the third day in a row, where Hamas forces are utilizing the facility for military purposes.

    The Israeli military estimates that some 950,000 Palestinians have evacuated the Rafah area in the southern Gaza Strip, as troops operate in the eastern part of the city.

    IDF continues to clear out Rafah and is supported by numerous air strikes.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    The Israeli army announced the liquidation of a Hezbollah field commander in southern Lebanon.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    Combat in Gaza to continue at a methodological pace. Rafah’s main efforts are expected to continue for another 4 - 6 weeks. Operations in the rest of Gaza to ebb and flow as IDF allows Hamas fighters to regroup in what they think are ‘safe’ area, only to hit them hard.

    The biggest question is when IDF will find more hostages and Hamas leadership in Rafah. If they have escaped via tunnels into Egypt, things may get dicy.

    Key note on the ICC warrants. It refers to the TERRITORY of Israel and the country of Palestine.


    Iran –

    Nation in a 5 day period of morning over the death of Raisi. Tens (hundreds) of thousands have turned out for the processional of his remains in Iran.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/20/2024 6:09:06 AM PDT · 522 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    The big WHO meeting is still on tap and observers are continuing to monitor to see if the agreement’s final form gets watered down and to what extent.


    Economy-

    Following its joint statement with Russia about moving away from a reliance on Western countries, the Chinese government announced it sold at least $53.3 billion worth of U.S bonds.
    Chinese has been increasing its offloading US Treasuries, handing them off to yield sensitive investors while recycling the money into gold.
    Essentially, China has been funding the US deficit and the continued and seemingly accelerating sell off is going to hurt us in a bad way.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    The Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group left Yokosuka, Japan, on Thursday to carry out its last Indo-Pacific patrol as the Forward Deployed Naval Force–Japan (FDNF-J) aircraft carrier before returning to the United States later this year. Meanwhile, the Theodore Roosevelt CSG arrived in Singapore for a port visit, and a number of nonregional navies are also deployed in South East Asia on engagement and exercises.

    Ronald Reagan is scheduled to turn over with USS George Washington (CVN-73) and then transit to Bremerton, Washington, later this year. USNI News previously reported that Reagan will conduct an overhaul in Washington state before its permanent homeport assignment. Washington is currently operating around South America, conducting a U.S. Naval Forces Southern Command/U.S. 4th Fleet’s Southern Seas 2024 deployment.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    Trump NY trial on the path to a swift conclusion. How political will the jury be in its decision vs the evidence.

    Smith’s classified document trial continues to come unglued as the judge spanked him again in a weekend ruling.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    At the Morehouse college commencement over the weekend, biden spoke about defying the USSC’s rulings against tuition loan forgiveness -

    “So I just did it anyway because rule of law is irrelevant”

    he further called black graduates victims and claimed America hates them.


    China –

    Taiwan’s newly inaugurated president William Lai has called on China to stop threatening the island and accept the existence of its democracy.
    He urged Beijing to replace confrontation with dialogue, shortly after being sworn in on Monday.
    He also said Taiwan would never back down in the face of intimidation from China, which has long claimed the island as its own.
    China responded by saying, “Taiwan independence is a dead end”.
    “Regardless of the pretext or the banner under which it is pursued, the push for Taiwan independence is destined to fail,” China’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin said at the daily press briefing on Monday afternoon.
    Beijing dislikes Mr Lai and his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which they see as pro-independence. And it has ramped up military incursions around Taiwan’s waters and airspace since his election win in January.
    Such military incursions by China have become a routine affair in the past few years, triggering fears of conflict. In his speech, Mr Lai called this the “greatest strategic challenge to global peace and stability”.
    But the 64-year-old also stuck closely to the formula used by his predecessor president Tsai Ing-wen, whose legacy will be defined by her cautious but steady handling of Beijing.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-69036373

    OBSERVATION - Because of biden and what appears to be his imploding administration when it comes to foreign policy and the Nov elections, China will be further moved to be more aggressive in the western Pacific region as well as Taiwan.


    Russia -

    Russia rushed support to Iran to search for the crashed helicopter.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 70’s and fair.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukrainian air defense shot down all 29 Shahed drones overnight

    Heavy action on the ground overnight and during the weekend.

    Ukrainian military control over half of Vovchansk, heavy clashes ongoing - regional administration. One of the hottest areas of the Kharkiv front.

    At Siversk axis Ukrainian military had combat engagements with Russian troops at Bilohorivka, Verkhnokamyanske, Rozdolivka and Ivano-Daryivka, - General Staff of Armed Forces of Ukraine reports
    Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Bilohorivka village of Luhansk region, part of an effort to drive toward Siversk.

    Russian army conducted missile strike with Iskander missile at Izyum. Ukraine answered back with a missile strike reported in Luhansk.

    Outlook —

    The fight for Vovchansk on the Kharkiv front is the key battle for the sector. It is were Ukraine defenses initially stiffened. However, for Russia Vovchansk is just the first of a string of town/villages alone the projected axis of advance that will only serve to make any continued push turn into a meat grinder. Moscow reportedly has placed the capture of the town on its priority list for some reason.

    Overall, Russia will continue to press its attacks in an effort to maintain the initiative on its fronts and to gain as much possible terrine before the resupplied Ukraine can stop and even take back some of the territory gained.

    Ukraine’s deep war game currently appears to have enough of an asymmetrical aspect to it that Russia is unable to anticipate who’s getting hit next. Crimea is getting particularly hit hard, forcing Russia to pull some of its strategic forces, such as the Black Sea Fleet out, but is forced to keep some high level commands and air bases in place necessary to support the war efforts. The fact that Russia seemed incapable of even stopping simple drones over the past week bodes ill for air defenses in the peninsula.


    ISRAEL –

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    Israel’s Gallant tells U.S. adviser Sullivan: “We are committed to broadening Rafah ground operation” - @Reuters

    Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has banned Israel’s intelligence and security chiefs from meeting with U.S. officials and lawmakers who’ve multiple times since the war in Gaza began

    ***
    Halil Al-Hiya, a senior Hxmas figure and a close associate of Hxmas leader Yahya Sinwar, has claimed that 70% of the hostages are now deceased. The claim has not been formally validated to the public.

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Intense fighting continues in and around the Jabalia camp in N Gaza

    Heavy airstrikes and ground action continue in Rafah.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    A drone heading toward Israel from Lebanon was shot down by fighter jets overnight according to the IAF.
    .

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    One person was killed and five others were injured in the Israeli attack that targeted two sites south of Homs, according to Syrian reports Israeli strike reported in Syria’s Homs province

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    The International Criminal Court requests the issuance of an arrest warrant for three Hamas leaders, including Sinwar

    he International Criminal Court requests an arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu for alleged war crimes

    The International Criminal Court requests an arrest warrant for Israeli Defense Minister Galant for alleged war crimes

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    Pretty much the same as in previous reports. IDF will continue to lure Hamas into pockets and then smash them with raids and intense air strikes - a tactic that has worked quite well for them. Operations in Rafah continue to expand, thought there is a higher degree of OPSEC due to a lot of the operations focusing on locating the few remaining live hostages (if any) as well as Sinwar.

    Hezbollah, “Islamic Resistance” and Iran are all mostly sideline sitters, though they keep poking the bear.

    See Iran below on possibility that it may accuse Israel of the helicopter crash.


    Iran –

    Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi was killed in a helicopter crash in the country’s northwest on Sunday, Iranian state media agencies and government officials reported on Monday morning.
    Raisi’s death was reported along with the deaths of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, among others. According to Mehr, all passengers on board were killed.
    The other officials who were killed include Seyyed Mohammad Ali Ale-Hashem, the Islamic Republic’s representative to the East Azerbaijan province, and Malek Rahmati, the province’s governor. The aircraft’s pilot and co-pilot were also killed.

    The VFR only helicopter flew into dense fog/clouds and straight into a steep hillside.

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801726

    Raisi, often referred to as the ‘Butcher of Iran,’ for his role in executing more than 5,000 prisoners in the late 80’s

    Celebratory fireworks seen in Iran after Raisi’s death. Iranians are overjoyed at the death of the Butcher of Tehran.

    ***
    First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber would step into Ebrahim Raisi’s role as president if Raisi died, which the Islamic Republic confirmed on Monday morning.

    Next, Mokhber, 69, would work with a special select staff and election authorities to hold new elections within 50 days.

    It is far from clear that Mokhbar, as close as he is to Khamenei, will have Raisi’s standing. This could leave the question of Khamenei’s successor much more widely open than before, even as Raisi himself did not have a lock on the job.

    One debate among analysts is whether another cleric like Khamenei will be the next supreme leader of the Islamic Republic or whether a senior official of the IRGC will try to form a new coalition of power brokers to take greater control from the cleric class.

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801828#google_vignette

    OBSERVATION - Iran is in a state of confusion this morning. Regime facing change of leadership and the potential increase in anti-goat rebellion due to the death of Raisi.

    There were very early statements that Israel/Mossad was behind the crash. I don’t consider it likely given the pea soup fog the helicopter flew into yesterday. What generated much of the speculation was the early reporting coming out of Israel of his death - way before Iran made any statement. If Mossad was involved, it was an incredible coincidence that they timed such an action with the near zero visibility conditions. So far, nothing from the Iranian govt charging Israel with the crash.

    Iran will be internally fixated on power change, and less likely for the next month of so to really engage in international skulduggery.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/19/2024 7:05:43 AM PDT · 517 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void

    my bad, price per barrel. not enough coffee this morning.

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/19/2024 6:44:08 AM PDT · 515 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    oopsie ping the above

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/19/2024 5:13:02 AM PDT · 514 of 531
    Godzilla to Godzilla


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    ***

    Pro-hamas street marches got violent in NYC yesterday as police broke up the protests.


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    Threats of terrorism loom over the upcoming 2024 T20 World Cup in New York as the Islamic State group issues warnings targeting the cricket tournament, amplifying concerns about safety and security, the U.S. Sun reported.

    The 2024 T20 World Cup, scheduled to commence in New York next month, is on high alert following the terrorists’ call for attacks.

    The World Cup is slated to unfold between June 2 and 29, spanning multiple Caribbean nations and U.S. states such as Florida, New York, and Texas.

    https://www.newsmax.com/us/terror-threats-cricket/2024/05/18/id/1165240/

    ***
    The U.S. State Department has just issued a worldwide travel alert and warns of terror threat against LGBT events

    OBSERVATIONS - Both based on ISIS threats. ISIS is reemerging as a threat once again and has found that the LGBT alliance with the pro-Hamas elements particularly abhorrent to islam. ISIS has also grown bolder in attacking locations outside the ME where terrorist strikes could be believed to further the cause of jihad against the west.


    Economy-

    May have my answer regarding the price spike on silver (Silver closed up $2.01 ($31.48) ) and gold this week. Reports suggest that US banks were short a minimum of 500,000,000 ounces of physical silver last week. Bank of America alone holds a 1 Billion oz. short position in the silver OTC market. If banks cannot cover their shorts, then bad things happen.

    NOTE - gold/silver prices for paper certificates, not the physical metal. Physical metal such as coins, bars etc are way above these prices.


    Russia -

    Economic Impact –

    A Russian court has ordered the seizure of the assets, accounts, property and shares of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank in the country as part of a lawsuit involving the German banks, court documents showed.

    The banks are among the guarantor lenders under a contract for the construction of a gas processing plant in Russia with the German company Linde. The project was terminated due to Western sanctions.

    A court in St Petersburg ruled in favour of seizing 239 million euros ($260m) from Deutsche Bank, documents dated May 16 showed.

    Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt said it had already provisioned about 260 million euros ($283m) for the case.

    “We will need to see how this claim is implemented by the Russian courts and assess the immediate operational impact in Russia,” the bank added in a statement.

    The court also seized the assets of Commerzbank, another German financial institution, worth 93.7 million euros ($101.85m) as well as securities and the bank’s building in central Moscow.

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/18/russia-seizes-european-banksassets-as-a-part-of-a-lawsuit?traffic_source=rss


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Busy night in the long war. Ukrainian air defense shot down 37 of 37 Shahed drones, while unknown type missiles hit Kryvyi Rih.

    Ukrainian UAVs were very busy. In what sone are saying is Ukraine’s largest attack on Crimea to date, explosions covering essentially every main Russian military hot spot on the peninsula overnight. Russian channels report that approximately 100-120 UAVs are currently on route to Russian-occupied Crimea, as well as the Russian regions Rostov and Krasnodar. Several explosions have already been heard in Crimea. Also Dzankoy, Sevastopol, Simferopol, Yevpatoria, Kirovskoye, Saky, appear to have been targeted.

    The oil depot in Vyborg, Russia was attacked by a Ukrainian drone and is now burning.

    An explosion in an oil depot near Vyborg, Leningrad Region, Russia, occurred last night.

    Krasnodar Krai of Russia: Refinery in Slavyansk-na-Kubani has been stopped after overnight drone attack

    The Black Sea fleet at Novorossiysk was attacked with the Ukrainian Navy reporting that overnight, the Russian Project 266M Natya Class Minesweeper Kovrovets was destroyed.

    Unconfirmed reports that British Intelligence: stating that Russian air defense cannot effectively cover the occupied Crimea any longer

    Russian ground forces reportedly are focusing more on capture of Chaziv Yar with reserve forces being added to the fight. According to Ukraine sources, Russia has been losing about 1500 solders per day for the past week.

    Russias took a big loss on the Kharkiv front after capturing the central hospital in Vovchansk, and filling it with possibly dozens (hundreds?) of Russian soldiers, Ukraine hit it with massive airstrike. The building got hit guided bombs, possibly JDAM/GLSDB.

    Outlook —

    Ukraine launched its second major drone attack in a few days. Fog of war and OPSEC limit info on the success or failure and the extent of both. In the case of Novorossiysk, on one hand they seemed more prepared, but on the other the apparent loss of another vessel.

    News also more obscured in the Kharkiv and Chasiv Yar fronts as both sides continue at it hamer and tongs. The apparent quick resupply of artillery ammo may be turning the tide for Ukraine.

    Looking to see if Ukraine has more large scale drone attacks available. I expect Russia to put a large drone/missile attack in response.

    Ground combat levels to remain about the same with Russia working to try to maintain the momentum of the spring offensive.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Gantz’s threat to resign from war cabinet

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    Israel’s war cabinet Gantz set June 8 as a deadline for the cabinet to approve a strategic plan for a hostages deal and post-war administration in Gaza otherwise he and his party will quit

    ***
    The Israeli army reports that the body of hostage Ron Benjamin was found in Gaza and returned for burial

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
    Israeli security forces have surrounded Al-Awda Hospital in Tal Al-Zaatar, northern Gaza. Intense airstrikes throughout Gaza.

    10 rockets were fired from northern Gaza at Ashkelon

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Overnight and this morning, ATGMs and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    US CENTCOM reported that the Houthis struck the Wind, a Panamanian-flagged, Greek-owned oil tanker, with one anti-ship ballistic missile in the Red Sea.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    More OPSEC overnight regarding IAF operations. It is pretty clear though that Hamas is continuing to get hit hard in N Gaza and Rafah.

    The tunnels from Rafah to Egypt will be getting substantial scrutiny over the next several days. If proven true, then Egypt has a lot to answer for regarding Hamas. Many are saying that the tunnel discovery and potential ramifications is one of the reasons why the US and Egypt were so adamantly opposed to invading the city.

    Gantz’s threat should be taken seriously. It comes after meeting secretly with US authorities without Netanyahu’s knowledge or permission. The biden regime prefers the liberal Gantz over the more conservative Netanyahu. He and Netanyahu have been bitter opponents over the past several years and it is the biden regime’s objective to get Netanyahu out of the PM position.

    I don’t expect tempo and operations to change in the midterm.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/18/2024 7:27:41 AM PDT · 513 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    ***
    Weekend is here and under employed college students along with Antifa affiliated groups will likely be on campuses again or in the streets.

    Extra precautions should be followed when attending and exiting pro-Trump political rallies from here on out (whether he is there or not) as Antifa et al are ramping up efforts to assault and other wise intimidate attendees.


    Economy-

    The U.S. awarded contracts for the purchase of 3.3 million barrels of oil to help replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) after a massive sale from the stockpile in 2022, the Department of Energy said Friday.

    The oil is being bought at an average price of $79.38 a gallon, the department said. The Biden administration sold 180 million barrels from the SPR oil in 2022 to control gasoline prices before the midterm elections.

    The Energy Department also said it is seeking to buy another 3 million barrels for delivery in November. The agency has so far bought back only 35.6 million barrels of the 180 million it sold in 2022.

    The Biden administration said it wants to buy back the oil at about $79.99 a barrel. Buying back at that price could be difficult with the approach of peak U.S. summer driving season, a time that traditionally boosts oil demand.

    https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/joe-biden-strategic-petroleum-reserve-oil/2024/05/17/id/1165198/

    OBSERVATION - The preverbal ‘drop in the bucket’. 180 million barrels sold , 35.6 added back and they want another 3 million back. This isn’t even one fourth what biden sucked out to aid the democrats in the midterms. It all also impact summer oil demands as well, potentially raising gasoline prices during the high demand season.

    ***
    Nearly half of the nation’s small business owners say their businesses won’t survive, if they are subjected to another four years of Joe Biden in the White House – and a look at his first-term performance suggests they could be right.
    A new, national survey by the Red Balloon job site and the PublicSquare shopping site asked small business owners a straightforward question:
    “Will your business survive a second Biden presidential term?”
    Forty-nine percent said they either “definitely” (22.4%) or “probably” (26.2%) won’t make through a second term of a Joe Biden presidency:

    Q: Will your business survive a second Biden presidential term?

    Definitely No 22.4%
    Probably No 26.2%
    Don’t know 28.8%
    Definitely Yes 7.2%
    Probably Yes 15.3%

    https://mrctv.org/blog/craig-bannister/bidenomics-half-small-businesses-say-they-wont-survive-4-more-years-biden-wh

    OBSERVATION - These businesses are looking hard at their bottom line as well as the tax increases proposed by biden should he return to the WH with a democrat congress. Even under good circumstances, it will take Trump some time to get policies out there to clean up the mess the democrats have made - and those policies will be vigorously fought by congressional democrats as well as the deep state.

    ***
    I’ve notices that Gold and Silver have reached record highs. No info on the driving factors. Anyone hear something? BTW copper has passed $5/lb-record highs as well.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    House Judiciary Committee voted 18–15 on May 16 to approve a resolution to hold Mr. Garland in contempt for refusing to provide impeachment investigators with the recordings in defiance of congressional subpoenas. The House Oversight Committee followed suit hours later, voting 24-20 to approve their own resolution.

    OBSERVATION - Again, who’s going to enforce the contempt ruling by congress?


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    Biden has invoked executive privilege to block House Republicans from obtaining audio recordings of his interviews with special counsel Robert Hur over his handling of classified documents.

    OBSERVATION - This will be litigated for the next years, pushing it out of the 2024 election cycle.


    Illegal Immigration –

    The Biden administration is accelerating the asylum timeline for migrants who enter the US illegally en route to five major cities.

    Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas and Attorney General Merrick Garland announced Thursday that a new Recent Arrivals (RA) Docket will swiftly place single adults before immigration judges in Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles and New York City.

    Those asylum claims must be resolved within 180 days, though grace periods would be granted in some circumstances for migrants to obtain the necessary legal representation.

    More than 1.7 million migrant “gotaways” have illegally crossed into America since President Biden took office, new Border Patrol data shows, in addition to the more than 9 million who have entered the US over the same period.

    https://nypost.com/2024/05/16/us-news/biden-speeds-up-asylum-process-for-migrants-headed-to-nyc-la-chicago-atlanta-boston/

    OBSERVATION - One of many means the regime is trying to use to ‘anchor’ the illegals in the US and prevent deportations.


    Russia -

    putin is wrapping up his China visit, and his image as a world leader dimmed by Xi and the meager deals he has signed with him.

    Economic Impact –

    The high cost of the war in Ukraine plus a decade of economic sanctions has hurt the Russian economy. To make matters worse Russia has no major allies in Europe or overseas. That leaves Russia dependent on China, which has the second largest economy in the world. The Chinese expect to be paid for the substantial economic aid they have been providing Russia.

    One problem remains, how does Russia pay for all this? China suggested, and Russia accepted, that long-standing Chinese claims on a quarter of the Russian Far East and most of its prime coastal areas be considered as a form of payment. China never canceled these claims, even in the 1940s and 50s when China was very dependent on Russia. These claims amount to about nine percent of Russian territory. The Russian Far East contains part of Siberia as well as the large Pacific Ocean coastline and the port of Vladivostok.

    https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htwin/articles/2024051804318.aspx

    OBSERVATION - The ceding of the land to China has not been formalized in any way that I’ve found, but the concept being described here is very much a potential front burner issue. Some have speculated that China could militarily move in and take the lands with Russia bogged down in Ukraine. But this is typical China leveraging its support and money against another nation - seen multiple times around the world but with Russia, this could be the biggest acquisition yet.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia continues its offensive efforts in Ukraine, but we may be seeing the high water mark as Ukraine artillery starts to exert its presence again and Russia runs low on bodies to throw into its ‘meat attacks’. Ukraine laughing counter attacks on various parts of the Russian offensive front created by Russian logistical overreach.

    Kharkiv region, Russian advances have been slowed to a near stop. Same for assaults against Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne.

    Outlook —

    As I noted above, we may be approaching the high water mark of Russia’s spring offensive. The offensives in Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne as well has Kharkiv appear to be stalling out. If reports are correct, Russia has already committed its operational reserves in these areas and have few if any other units it can draw upon. In part due to the high casuality/loss rate that even an artillery deprived Ukraine inflicted. Now reports are that artillery rounds are approaching an abundant level and the devastating Ukraine artillery is re-establishing itself as king.

    Russian fighter/bombers also seem to have pulled back from CAS operations, relying once again on glide bombs as MANPADS and other ADA assets reappear in numbers in the battle zone.

    I expect continued fierce fighting along the front and an increasing likelihood of a Russian missile strike in retaliation for the recent Ukraine drone attacks.


    Europe / NATO General –

    Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico’s condition was serious but stable Saturday as the man accused of trying to assassinate him faced his first court appearance.

    Two hours of surgery Friday to remove dead tissue from Fico’s multiple gunshot wounds led to a good prognosis for his recovery but he was still not well enough to travel to a hospital in the capital, Bratislava, government ministers said outside University F. D. Roosevelt Hospital in Banska Bystrica, where Fico was taken by helicopter after the shooting.

    https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting/2024/05/18/id/1165225/


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Bodies of three hostages were recovered yesterday.

    - Israel states that there are around 50 tunnels into Egypt, in addition to hundreds of others throughout Rafah.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    In a well coordinated effort, conducted by special forces and Shin Bet, the bodies of three Israelis who died trying to flee the Nova festival massacre were recovered, giving the families closure; President Herzog: ‘Condolences and a sad embrace to the grieving and tormented families’

    IDF and Shin Bet recovering the bodies of three hostages, namely Shani Louk, Amit Buskila and Itzik Gelenter. This marks the first recovery of a hostage body since April 6, when the body of Elad Katzir, who was murdered in captivity, was found.

    ***

    Israeli sources report that IDF in eastern Rafah and several others areas of southern Gaza have begun excavating graveyards, due to recent intelligence that Hamas had buried the bodies of multiple hostages in an attempt to conceal them from Israel.

    NOTE - This has been confirmed in another fashion by pro-Hamas media sources that have reported that Israel is ‘desecrating’ cemeteries in Gaza.

    ***
    During a hearing on Friday at The Hague, Israel reportedly announced it has discovered “nearly 700 tunnel shafts” underneath the city of Rafah in southern Gaza and about 50 of them “cross into Egypt.”

    “Nearly 700 tunnel shafts have been identified in Rafah, from which approximately 50 tunnels cross into Egypt. These tunnels are used by Hamas to supply itself with weapons and ammunition and could potentially be used to smuggle out of Gaza hostages, or Hamas senior operators.”

    https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-rafah/2024/05/17/id/1165182/

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    IDF continues to encircle and liquidate Hamas in N Gaza in some of the fiercest fighting of the war. Most of it focused in and around Jabalia Camp.

    IDF continues operations in Rafah. Bodies of hostages being recovered.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    The Israeli army announces the targeting of Hezbollah launch pads and military infrastructure in southern Lebanon

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    A car was targeted inside Syrian territory near the Masnaa border crossing with Lebanon. Possible high level Hezbollah/Hamas/IRGC person on board.

    ———WEST BANK——————————-

    An IAF fighter jet targeted a building in Jenin in the northern West Bank late Friday night as part of a counter-terrorism operation, the IDF reported.

    . . . the strike hit a five-man squad that was planning to carry out a major terrorist attack in the immediate time frame.

    The one person killed in the strike was Aslam Hamaisa, one of the commanders of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s Jenin Brigade, Hebrew media reported. He was located by the Shin Bet hiding in an apartment in the area, Walla reported.

    https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-801603#google_vignette

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    ICC in S Africa continues pressing forward with genocide and illegal warfare claims against Israel.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    The recovery of dead hostages in Rafah, along with the revelation of an extensive tunnel network into Egypt is just beginning to reverberate into the world. Some are beginning to speculate that the tunnel/hostage issue is a very sensitive one in that Egypt knew the extent of Hamas tunneling operation and the increasing potential that elements of the Egyptian govt/military may have tuned a blind eye to weapons smuggling as well as the smuggling out of hostages and Hamas leadership. Still speculation, but 50 tunnels is a lot of avenues into/out of Gaza and Rafah in particular.

    NOTE that a lot of the damage to ‘civilian’ buildings in Gaza is due to the destruction of Hamas tunnels that pass beneath them.

    Sadly, I still don’t expect that there are any hostages alive at this stage.

    Expect Israel to continue to target leadership of Hama, Hezbollah and affiliated terrorists.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/17/2024 5:57:41 AM PDT · 505 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    On Monday, a press conference was held to launch a Japanese national movement against WHO’s pandemic plans. Organizers also announced a protest against WHO’s plans to take place on 31 May, the second last day of the World Health Assembly meeting to adopt the amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005) and the Pandemic Treaty.

    OBSERVATION - Japan was one of the first countries to sound out against the pandemic ‘treaty’. What was painted as smooth sailing for this attempt of seizing global power has hit some rough spots that may cause the WHO to water down some portions of the act. Rest assured that those portions will be weasel worded to permit the WHO to sneak back in the original goals /controls of the document.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    ***
    Economic blockades being targeted for the week of Independence Day (July 1st-4th) by Antifa and affiliated leftists now according to Ngo on “X” will include attempts to close ports, as seen last year. This is in addition to the expected protests to close key freeways and interchanges.


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    The Quantico incident now has two Jordanians here illegally, one on a terror watch list. More and more this looks like a probing effort to test security. BIG red flag is that they rolled up in a cargo truck - the type that could be used to haul a truck bomb onto the base for detonation.


    Economy-

    On Thursday the Dow reached 40,020 points before closing back below the 40K mark. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 both hit record highs this week as well.

    OBSERVATION - There are economists that suggest the markets are a stack of cards, being held high by hopium and govt spending. They clearly don’t reflect the struggles of Joe and Jane American who are struggling to make ends meet, or the thousands daily losing their jobs due to the continued closures of hundreds (thousands) of businesses of all sizes nation wide. At this stage, a high Dow doesn’t mean that much to me other than when the crisis strikes, there will be a much larger drop in prices to be seen.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    The GOP-led House Oversight Committee late Thursday night passed a resolution and report recommending US Attorney General Merrick Garland be held in contempt of Congress for refusing to hand over audio of Biden’s interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur.

    US Attorney General Merrick Garland on Thursday told reporters that the Justice Department does not need to comply with a congressional subpoena because the DOJ is “a fundamental institution of our democracy.”

    A visibly rattled Garland made the statements during a press conference earlier Thursday to reporters after Joe Biden asserted executive privilege over the audio of his interview with Special Counsel Robert Hur.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/just-house-oversight-committee-passes-resolution-recommending-merrick/

    OBSERVATION - Nice resolution - but nothing will happen as Garland/DoJ will do nothing with it.


    Phillipines –

    A flotilla of fishing boats is making its way to the disputed Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea. China is reportedly deploying coast guard and merchant marine vessels to monitor and intercept. Philippines warning it will send combat ships to protect the flotilla if necessary.


    Russia -

    WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    Putin says Russian army has no orders to capture Kharkiv, troops are creating “sanitary zone” near the border.

    ***
    Russia expels Britain’s military attache from Moscow, Russian state media reported.
    “The British military attache must leave Russia within a week,“ the statement said.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Very busy night for the deep battle. Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 of 20 Shahed drones overnight.

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims fifty-one drones were intercepted over the territory of occupied Crimea, forty-four UAVs over the territory of the Krasnodar region, six drones over the Belgorod region and one over the Kursk region. Also, naval aviation and patrol boats of the Black Sea Fleet destroyed six unmanned boats in the Black Sea.

    Reports on the ground state that Ukrainian’s drone swarm strike hit the Tuapse Oil Refinery in southern Russia, setting it on fire. It has capacity of 240,000 barrels/day, or about about 3.5% of Russia total refining capacity

    Ukrainian aerial drones also hit Russia’s Novorossiysk naval facility. Over 35 explosions were reported in Novorosiysk overnight. Novorossiysk is home to most of the Russian Black Sea Fleet. A fuel storage tank facility was set on fire in the NW portion of the port of Novorossiysk. This attack lasted for nearly 2 hours. Local reports from Russian sources suggest that air defense absolutely not existent.

    Follow-up on the Russian Air Force airframe losses at Belbek: 2 MiG-31s and 2 MiG-29s destroyed. The Fulcrums were most likely in stored status.

    An Su-27/35 was claimed, but comparison with past imagery strongly suggests it was a MiG-29. The loss of the MiG-31 are critical as they are the launch platform for the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal ‘hypersonic’ missile.

    Commercial satellite imagery also indicates significant damage to the airport’s runway.

    On the ground, analysts are indicating that Russia is barely able to make any progress and is now focusing its efforts on seizing Vovchansk as its reserves run low, endangering its more ambitious goals. Russia initially didn’t have enough forces on the border for a major operation, but now it’s forced to use up its reserves.

    Very little ground gained by Russia at the Ocheretyne and Chasiv Yar fronts.

    Overall, Ukraine reports Russia suffering heavy losses of personnel and equipment across the easter front.

    Outlook —

    putin indicates that the Kharkiv operation is to set up a “sanitary zone” (read buffer zone). Taking more territory also gives him better leverage if there are any peace talks down the road.

    Though the Kharkiv operation has seized more territory in a shorter period since the beginning of the war, evidence along all fronts suggest that the Russian offensive may soon be reaching a pause. Operational reserves have long been committed and heavy losses in men and tanks/armor are taking their toll. Ukraine’s dynamic defense has reformed and is repelling more and more attacks. If Russia is to pull off another offensive in the summer, it will need a large infusion of troops and equipment, both are slow to come to the front.

    blinken basically gave a green light for Ukraine to use long range systems like ATACMS on Russian territory. This could throw a serious wrench on Russian operations which currently have their logistic and command sitting pretty soft under the current situation where Ukraine has been forbidden to touch them. And Russia will be slow to respond according to disperse these locations.

    Ukraine’s large drone strikes overnight may well generate a Russian retaliatory strike within the next few days. Post strike analysis by the OSINT community is waiting for new commercial satellite images to be collected to judge the extent of the damage.

    Under the current situation, I don’t expect any breakthroughs on the fronts. Just more hard and bloody fighting.


    Belarus -

    Belarus resistance elements are reporting that Russia is apparently about to move military equipment to belarus once again. This movement is believed to have three potential scenarios -

    - Sumy/Chernihiv invasion
    - Longer term training of new conscripts
    - Exercises with the Belarus military

    The latter two appear to be the most likely reason for the equipment movements. An offensive towards Sumy/Chernihiv will take months to build up for. Not totally out of the question given the Kharkiv offensive apparent goals is to create some kind of buffer zone, and a similar effort here to produce the same.


    ISRAEL –

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    Netanyahu expressed his willingness to discuss handing over civil authority in Gaza to “local entities not affiliated with Hamas.”

    US reportedly has completed work on the floating pier in N Gaza and is receiving cargo already.

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Fierce fighting continues in Jabalia camp, northern Gaza Strip

    IDF continues operations in central Rafah. Ground forces encountered and destroyed Hamas rocket launching positions with rockets ready to fire on Israel

    A rocket fired from Gaza towards Sderot was successfully intercepted by the Iron Dome missile defense system.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Israeli and Lebanese sources are reporting that the IAF airstrikes overnight near Baalbek in the Beqaa Valley, appear to have targeted a network of Hezbollah manufacturing infrastructure used in the development of guided-munitions and one-way “suicide” drones.

    IAF launched raids on the town of Najariya in the Sidon district, southern Lebanon.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    Houthi shot down its fourth US MQ-9 “Reaper” this week.

    ***
    Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia will target all ships heading to Israeli ports, even if they do not pass through the Red Sea, the head of the US-designated terrorist organization said on Thursday.

    Abdulmalik al-Houthi declared in a televised speech that the Houthis will extend their attacks on Israel-bound ships beyond the Red Sea region to the Mediterranean Sea in what the Yemeni rebels have described as a campaign of solidarity with Palestinians during the ongoing Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.
    “We will target any ship heading to Israel that comes within range of our weapons,” Abdulmalik al-Houthi said. “Everyone must stop transporting to the occupied Palestinian ports … It is in the interest of all companies to stop transporting to the Israeli enemy towards the Mediterranean Sea or in any direction.”

    https://www.algemeiner.com/2024/05/16/iran-backed-houthi-terrorists-vow-target-all-ships-heading-israel/

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    I expect Israel to continue its tactic of withdrawal from areas of Gaza and allowing Hamas to try to fill in those areas only to be hit by IDF raids. This tactic has been effective for Israel.

    Rafah operation will continue, though I do not expect that Israel will find any hostages alive. By this stage, Hamas has kill most if not all of them.

    Israel will continue to take apart Hezbollah leadership and facilities, leaving the terror group in reduced capability for Israel’s operations to remove them from S Lebanon later this summer/fall (once operations in Gaza have reached their objectives)


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/16/2024 7:04:17 AM PDT · 502 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    After hundreds of anti-Israel protesters swarmed campus buildings and set up barricades at the University of California, Irvine, local law enforcement agencies responded and students were ordered to leave immediately on Wednesday.
    The university said that it put out a call to local law enforcement and received immediate assistance from the Irvine Police Department and Orange County Sheriff’s Department.

    https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-32/

    OBSERVATION - There are some hold-outs from the campus seizure protests. Several are in the UC system, with Irvine and Berkeley among the forefront.

    ***
    Folks at Forward Observer are reporting info that revolutionary anarchist groups are planning another economic blockade for the week of Independence Day (July 1st-4th). This would consist of closing key freeways and associated interchanges across the country.


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    The Marine Corps prevented two people from breaking onto a Marine installation in Virginia on May 3 and turned them over to U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.

    The two people drove up to the Fuller Road Gate of Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, in a box truck and were stopped by military sentries, Capt. Michael Curtis, a spokesman for the base, said in a statement to Marine Corps Times on Tuesday.

    “When asked, the operator of the truck informed the military police officers they worked for a company subcontracted by Amazon and were making a delivery to the U.S. Post Office located in the Town of Quantico,” Curtis said in the statement.

    Because the two had no affiliation with the Marine base and no credentials to enter it, military police officers directed them to go to a holding area to undergo standard vetting procedures, according to Curtis. But the driver blew past the holding area and attempted to drive onto the base

    Officers put up the vehicle denial barriers, blocking the truck from getting any farther onto the base, and detained the pair.

    Both occupants of the truck were illegals, with one being a Jordanian national who had recently crossed the southern border into the United States was on the U.S. government’s terrorist watch list

    https://www.marinecorpstimes.com/news/your-marine-corps/2024/05/14/2-people-in-ice-custody-after-attempting-to-breach-virginia-marine-base/

    OBSERVATION - There seems to be an uptick in the attempts by individuals to force their way into bases or other secure facilities lately. The dark side of this- particularly the Jordanian terror suspect - is that these could be probing attacks to test security and security responses.

    ***
    According to abc news, Foreign terrorist organizations may seek to exploit “LGBTQIA+-related events and venues,” including events during 2024 Pride month in June, the FBI and DHS said.

    ‘Organizations like ISIS may seek to exploit increased gatherings associated with the upcoming June 2024 Pride Month,’ according to the announcement, which the agencies issued last week. The announcement added that the threat is ‘compounded’ by the ‘current heightened threat environment’ in the United States.

    The threats could come online, in person or in the mail, according to the FBI and DHS.

    https://notthebee.com/article/fbi-warns-isis-could-target-lgbtqia-events-during-pride-month/

    OBSERVATION - The LGBT community will get a big shock is ISIS pulls something off. Currently the Gay/trans community has very vocally and physically supported the pro-hamas / pro-islam protests of the past 6 months or so.


    Economy-

    The regime is trying to spin the latest inflation numbers as a victory. But as I noted, the numbers have been doctored up by REMOVING components the economy, most notably foods and fuels. Just like they play numbers with the unemployment figures.


    Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –

    (FO) Admiral Richard Cheeseman testified before Congress that the Navy would fall short of its 2024 recruiting goals by 6,200 sailors, saying that this was “significantly better than [the 6,700] we expected.” To accommodate the recruiting shortfall, the Navy is focused on retaining sailors in aviation, explosive ordnance disposal, surface warfare, submarine warfare, and naval special warfare.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    Joe Biden and Donald Trump have agreed to hold two presidential TV debates in June and September, setting the stage for primetime political duels that could shake up the White House race.

    CNN will host the first forum on 27 June in the key swing state of Georgia.
    ABC will host the second one on 10 September.

    The announcement came after President Biden, a Democrat, laid out his terms for debating his Republican predecessor ahead of November’s election.
    CNN said there would be no audience at June’s debate in Atlanta, which will be moderated by hosts Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It is scheduled unusually early for an election year.

    Robert F Kennedy Jr, who is running as an independent, accused the two major candidates of colluding to exclude him. But later on Wednesday he said on X, formerly Twitter, that he would meet the requirements to qualify for the CNN debate.

    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-69017002

    OBSERVATION - biden is laying out all the rules and set up. Some where in the back of my mind is Brer Trump saying “please don’t throw me in the briar patch” Both timing and format - skipping the quasi-official “presidential debate commission” of years past. Some think that biden’s demands are such that if trump opposes or wants changes, it would grant him reason to cancel altogether. Other analysis thinks that biden is trying to shore up his democrat frontrunner creds, particularly going into the convention. Risky tactic, as if he melts down in the June debate, it could really force the democrats into a replacement candidate on short notice.


    Illegal Immigration –

    General reports that illegals penetrating the border have increased in all sectors except Texas.


    China –

    The Chinese government is considering to order “local governments across the country buy millions of unsold homes to ‘save’ the property market” according to Bloomberg

    OBSERVATION - Continued evidence of a very devastating economic conditions of the housing / construction sector. These homes are those in the dozens of empty cities constructed to move citizens from rural area to urban as a means to supply more workers for China’s manufacturing sector.


    Russia -

    WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    Putin and Xi Jinping signed an agreement on deepening bilateral strategic partnership. According to Putin, the Russian Federation and China have formed a portfolio of 80 large joint investment projects in various areas.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Intense fighting continues in the Kharkiv regions, though conditions appear to be stabilizing as Ukraine defenses stiffen. Fighting further south has also backed off from yesterday with Russian making very little gains if any in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne areas.

    Explosions were reported in Sevastopol and Yevpatoria, source of which has not been reported. Russian ADA was reported active in Simferopol.

    Reports that Ukraine fired ATACMS missiles at the Belbek airfield in occupied Crimea overnight, the second night in a row.

    Unconfirmed reports that Russia is moving men and equipment to the border near Sumy.

    Outlook —

    With reporting relatively limited out of the combat zones overnight, it does appear that the Russian offensive is slowing way down. Analysts are looking closely at Russia’s actions opposite of Kharkiv and are beginning to suggest that Russia is attempting to establish a buffer zone. Over the past month, Russian separatists fighting for Ukraine have stages several incursions into Russian from these regions to the consternation of the Kremlin. A buffer zone would prevent that. Will have to see what develops.

    On a very negative end, defensive construction materials that were supposed to have been emplaced by Ukraine have been captured by Russia, like dragon’s teeth barriers. Russian now has ready available materials to bolster its defensive lines IF the goal is to create a buffer zone.


    Europe / NATO General –

    The Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico was shot yesterday by Prominent leftist writer Juraq Cintula in an attempted assassination.

    Cintula who was arrested following the attempted assassination, is a 71 year old Slovak poet supporter of the Progressive Slovakia party – was a founder of the so called “Movement against violence”.

    Fico, was originally reportedly “in a life-threatening situation”, the operation went well - Deputy Prime Minister Tomáš Taraba told the BBC and is now expected to recover.

    ***
    Geert Wilders has announced that the 5 month negotiation on forming a coalition government have finally been successful.

    His PVV party will rule together with 3 other right-wing parties.

    The “Hope, Courage and Pride” coalition platform presented today introduces strict measures on asylum seekers, scraps family reunification for refugees, and will reduce the number of non-EU students coming to the country.

    “Deport people without a valid residence permit as much as possible, even forcibly,” the agreement says.

    The Netherlands will take new measures to support its Jewish community and will move the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.

    OBSERVATION - He is also supportive of the nation’s farmers who have been facing being thrown off family farms under draconian global warming mandates.


    ISRAEL –

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    The inter webs were (and continue to be) filled with the false narrative of “Nakba day”

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    IDF continues to hammer pockets of Hamas forces in N Gaza as well as Rafah in S Gaza.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Reports that an Israeli drone targeted a car on the Qana Road in southern Lebanon. No details as of when I’m writing this, but if current trend continues, it likely contained senior leader(s) of Hezbollah.

    Large-scale Israeli airstrikes were reported in the Beqaa Valley, eastern Lebanon.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claims responsibility for 2 cruise missiles targeting Nevatim Airbase in Israel. Missiles were reportedly intercepted and downed by IAF fighter jets.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    I expect continued heavy fighting in N Gaza and in the south in Rafah.

    I do not expect any significant change in the conflict across the Lebanese border.

    The “Islamic Resistance” has melted way back to the point where in the case of the Houthi, attacks in the Red Sea have gone way down and companies may resume limited transit again.


    Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024

    Jordanian security services arrested several Jordanians of Palestinian descent and seized a weapons cache that Iranian-backed militias had smuggled from Syria into Jordan with the involvement of the apprehended Jordanians. The Brotherhood cell members reportedly intended to use the weapons to conduct “acts of sabotage” to destabilize Jordan.

    OBSERVATION - The increased, aggressive support of elements in Jordan to subvert and potentially overthrow the govt by Iran is likely a response to Jordans assistance in the defeat of the drone and cruise missile attacks by Iran on Israel.


    Venezuela -

    Venezuela has moved “substantial quantities of [military] personnel and equipment to the border with Guyana amid its territorial dispute over the Essequibo region.
    The update comes from the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington D.C., which this week released a report on the latest developments in the Venezuela-Guyana dispute.

    https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Venezuela-Moves-Substantial-Quantities-of-Troops-to-Guyana-Border.html

    OBSERVATION - Venezuela is moving methodically in an apparent build up for eventual invasion of Guyana. It has spent months preparing military bases and airfields near the border region, now the troops are coming in. At this pace, one can expect an eventual invasion by the end of summer. Likely seeking to cover the invasion with chaos from other global events diverting US and European attentions.


    Black Swans -

    As sun spot cluster 3664 rotates to the far side of the sun after a considerable number of X class flares that triggered a spectacular light show, a new cluster is just coming into view. Not yet having a number listed to it, it has already popped off a X2.9 flare.

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/15/2024 5:59:57 AM PDT · 501 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    (FO) During a meeting of the Department of Justice (DOJ) Election Threats Task Force, Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco said threats to election integrity are being “supercharged” by artificial intelligence (AI), which provides new avenues to “misinform and threaten” voters through deep fakes.

    Monaco is likely setting the stage for prosecutions of AI-generated content on social media that the DOJ deems “misinformation or disinformation threat.” Renewed Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) and FBI coordination serves two purposes for “election integrity”: federal agencies can coordinate social media censorship with platforms, and platforms can facilitate the prosecution of Americans who post AI-generated content the DOJ deems “misinforms or threatens” voters

    OBSERVATION - “Misinformation” continues to be the buzz word of the swamp in its efforts to quench opposing views. However, the breakout of AI into society has created the potential - and in some cases already has - to corrupt the info sphere with near perfect fakes of all kinds. However, DoJ looks to it as an excuse to continue the ham handed censorship activities we’ve seen since 2020 (and to some degree earlier).


    Economy-

    The producer price index reading for April came in above estimates, putting a damper on expectations that the Federal Reserve would begin cutting rates later this year as inflation weakens. The PPI gained 0.5% from April, higher than the 0.3% that economists polled by Dow Jones had anticipated.

    Fed Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday that inflation data this year has been disappointing and will require patience from the central bank on monetary policy.

    “We did not expect this to be a smooth road. But these [inflation readings] were higher than I think anybody expected,” he told a bankers’ group in Amsterdam. “So what that has told us is that we’ll need to be patient and let restrictive policy do its work.”

    OBSERVATION - Wall Street has been looking forward to a rate decrease for the better part of a year now. That hopium is about run out now. This also will have significant impacts to biden’s economic policy arm waving as the election nears. Many thought that the Fed would drop rates just before the election to produce a burst of positive economic numbers to help him.

    ***
    (FO) A group of House and Senate Democrats led by Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) urged President Biden to “take robust action” through Executive Actions to lower food prices. The lawmakers said Biden could use Executive Actions to fight anticompetitive practices including slotting fees, and investigate price gouging throughout the U.S. food supply chain.

    OBSERVATION - Communism and controlled economy is what they want. Obviously they didn’t learn anything from Nixon’s disastrous wage and price controls. They are also looking for a scape goat with the elections and citizens putting most of the blame on democrats for the high cost of living.

    ***
    It is being reported that the average auto loan rate on a new car has just hit *9.86%* APR. A 20+ year high.

    ***
    Home prices have surged 47.1% since the start of 2020, easily outstripping the gains seen in recent decades.

    That’s according to a recent analysis by ResiClub of the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which showed that house prices in the 1990s and 2010s grew a respective 30.1% and 44.7%.

    On top of that, home price growth so far this decade is on the verge of surpassing all the growth seen in the 2000s. During that time period, housing prices skyrocketed 47.3%, including an 80% spike before the 2007 housing market crash.

    https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/us-home-prices-have-surged-47-since-start-2020

    OBSERVATION - I’ve said it time and again - the housing market is a key indicator of the health of our economy. These numbers suggest the potential for another housing market crash on top of sky high interest rates. This may sound good - crashing lowering costs - but it would remove houses from the market as owners would be underwater on their loans and would hold on to them rather than sell and move to another house. 2007 all over again - on steroids.

    ***
    The administration is increasing tariffs on Chinese EVs from 25% to 100% by the end of this year, doubling tariffs on semiconductor chips imported from China to 50% by 2025, more than triple levies against Chinese EV batteries to 25% by next year and doubling tariffs on solar cells imported from China to 50% by the end of this year, according to the White House. Other products targeted include medical equipment like syringes and needles, and certain container cranes.

    https://dailycaller.com/2024/05/14/biden-tariffs-chinese-electric-vehicles-critical-minerals/

    OBSERVATION - Despite efforts to decouple, the US is still very reliant on China for most of these items. This will result in inflation as costs get transferred to consumers until other sources are developed - though those other sources will likely be high priced as well due to new demand.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    The left is desperately trying to spin Cohen’ testimony into some sort of ‘win’ for the prosecution. The majority see the prosecution case evolving into an even greater dumpster fire.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    The WH is scrambling to walk back its claims of offering Israel with super secret intel on the locations of Hamas leadership, stating that the US has no such intelligence to begin with.

    OBSERVATION - Pretty clear that this was an overt effort to stop Israel from going forward with the Rafah operation and that the WH has been clearly caught with its pants down on this one.

    ***
    biden continues to make the false claim that inflation was at 9% when he took office.


    Illegal Immigration –

    Congressman Andy Biggs, R-Ariz., said Tuesday that border crossings in the Tucson area have drastically increased over the past few years.

    “When I met with Chief Maudlin who’s the sector chief in Tucson last Wednesday, he said ... they’re on pace to have more than 700,000 encounters through the Tucson sector alone in this fiscal year,” Biggs said on the “Just the News, No Noise” TV show.

    “Just put that in perspective from 2018 to 2021, the average [was] about 60,000 per year,” he added.

    More than 189,000 migrants arrived at the southern border just in the month of February.

    https://justthenews.com/government/security/arizona-rep-biggs-says-border-crossings-tucson-border-have-skyrocketed

    OBSERVATION - The tsunami of illegals continues, though reporting has largely been suppressed and pushed to the background due to the Gaza and Ukraine wars along with other political news (usually spin against Trump trials).


    China –

    Largest Chinese violation of Taiwan’s air defense zone in 2024.
    45 PLA aircraft were detected around the island—26 crossed the ADIZ & came as close as 41 nautical miles

    OBSERVATION - I’m working to give this area more attention. Over the past few months, China has become more aggressive in its actions and claims in the S China Sea and towards Taiwan. With the increasing political chaos in the US and eyes directed towards the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, I am concerned that China may take even more aggressive actions to achieve its desired regional goals.

    In addition to aircraft incursions, Chinese naval incursions and deployments around the island - likely for the purpose of setting up a potential blockade are concerning too.


    Russia -

    Russian Personnel Issues –-

    Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Krivoruchko have resigned, backdated their resignation letters to before May 9th, despite signing the letters on May 13th.

    Their subordinate Lt Gen Kuznetsov’s house was raided and he was taken out of his bed by force at around 5:30am on May 14.

    Kuznetsov is accused of crimes directly linked to Deputy Defence Ministers Tsalikov and Ivanov. Ivanov has already been under arrest.

    OBSERVATION - These are serious actions by putin in reshaping his regime. Having ‘won’ a fifth term, he is doing the classical communist purge of potentially unfaithful military leaders. The impact this kremlin shakeup will have on the military is not certain at this time, but will likely continue forward on shear mass of momentum for the near term.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russia has maintained its full court press on Ukraine via not only its new assaults towards Kharkiv, but all along the eastern front of Ukraine.

    In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces are solidifying defensive positions. Local Ukrainian commanders are reportedly taking the initiative in the vacuum of poor decisions by leaders at the national level. Russia forces reportedly utilizing the “meat attack” tactic in an attempt to overwhelm Ukrainian positions.

    Advances in the Ochertyne and Chasiv Yar areas have slowed way down, almost to a halt.

    Ukraine has basically stopped trying to intercept Russian S-300 missile strikes on cities like Kharkiv, Dniper and Odesa. Russian has so many of these outdated systems that Ukraine has had to make the choice to used existing ADA assets against more serious threats.

    Ukraine hit a major Russian airbase in Crimea overnight. Multiple strikes reported at the Belbek Air Base in Crimea by Ukraine using 300km ATACMS Missiles overnight. Reported result so far:

    1x Mig-31 destroyed
    3x Su-27 damaged
    2x S-300/S-400 air defense systems destroyed
    11x Russian soldiers killed
    OSINT folks waiting for the next commercial satellite run for further analysis.

    Outlook —

    Situation is still tense for Ukraine on the Kharhiv front as Russian troops continue to pour into the captured area. Some good news is that Russian advances further south are slowing to potentially stalling as Ukraine defenses stiffen up there as well.

    A lot of commentary about allowing Ukraine to use ATACAMS to strike Russian assembly area in Russia along the border. The US has so far been reluctant to allow Ukraine to directly attack Russian territory with these systems. This is one area where the US should allow a weapons ‘free’ situation, creating a situation that could really alter a lot of Russian rear area operations.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - UN accused of collaboration with Hamas in use of facilities and even marked vehicles in Gaza.

    - IDF continues to press forward throughout all Gaza.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    Hamas has been planning to establish a secret base in Turkey as well as other terror cells elsewhere in order to coordinate attacks against Israeli targets in neighboring countries, including members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) according to a document captured by the IDF in Gaza, The Times revealed in an exclusive report.

    The secret document, titled “Founding a base in Turkey,’’ was discovered in the chief of staff to Yahya Sinwar, Hamza Abu Shanab’s home, The Times reported, citing the IDF. The document says Israel’s efforts to clamp down on the Gaza Strip over the past decade has “put Hamas on the defensive.”

    Erdogan insists that Hamas has not been carrying out terrorist operations from Turkey despite meetings with Hamas leaders and allowing the Palestinian group to maintain offices in Istanbul

    The Turkish government has expressed support for Hamas, calling it a “liberation group,” and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on Sunday that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “has reached a level that would make Hitler jealous with his genocidal methods.”

    https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/hamas-plans-to-set-up-secret-base-in-turkey-secret-documents-reveal-report-801196

    ***
    Israel said its troops had identified fighters in the central logistics compound of the U.N. Palestinian relief agency UNRWA east of Rafah, demanding an explanation. Reuters verified the location of the footage released by the Israeli army but could not verify when it was filmed or the identity of the men.
    “The U.N. has in part become a terrorist entity in itself because it cooperates with Hamas and covers for it,” Israel’s ambassador to the U.N. Gilad Erdan told Army Radio.
    UNRWA has denied allegations of cooperating with Hamas.

    https://www.newsmax.com/world/globaltalk/israel-gaza-hamas/2024/05/15/id/1164778/

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    A Hamas Command Facility which was located inside of a school operated by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) in Nuseirat, central Gaza, was bombed overnight by the IAF resulting in the death of 15 terror operatives including 10 members of Hamas’s Elite Naval Commando Unit “Nukhba” who participated in the October 7th massacre.

    Hamas managed to launch a handful of rockets towards Sderot, handled by Iron Dome.

    Continuing clashes between Israeli army and Hamas in the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip.

    Artillery and air strikes continue to be intense in Central Gaza.

    IDF continues to develop and execute search and destroy operation in Rafah.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Senior Hezbollah commander Hussein Mechi was killed in a targeted drone strike in Tyre, Lebanon.

    ***
    Between 40 to 50 explosions were heard in the area of Mount Meron, cause of explosions is not reported.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    IDF continues to successfully use its tactics to lure Hamas into what are essentially kill zones. More evidence of the UN collaboration with Hamas by allowing it to use its vehicles and facilities is coming out - not good for the daily drum of Hamas propaganda the UN spews on a daily basis.

    The Rafah operation continues to grow, with quick Israeli deep penetrations into the town. The international voices decrying the operation appear to be falling off now that Israel has shown the resolve to execute the operation no matter what.

    The status of an remaining hostages is still questionable. If Hamas no longer views them as supporting their cause it is highly likely that they’ll kill them directly, or lock them into locations that Israel may hit. I don’t hold out much hope for any other hostages to be freed alive.

    Israel continues to successfully hunt down key Hezbollah leaders, nailing another one overnight. The cumulative effect of such leadership loss has to be hitting a painful level for Hezbollah. It should also cast a lot of fear in the other leaders, as this is but another in a recent string of hits on the individuals while driving on the road. This means Israel has some really good HUMINT going on providing timely and actionable targeting intel. This same intel probably has also marked the rocket launching and storage facilities throughout southern Lebanon for quick strikes as necessary.

    Loss of key leadership may also be the reason for Hezbollah relatively minimal responses against Israel of late. It takes a while to reestablish chains of command and for new leaders to get a grasp of the ongoing war situation. Many, if not most of the leaders hit have been in their positions for years and years. How much ‘junior’ leadership training has been used to prepare others to take charge is not certain.


    Misc of Note –

    Multiple wildfires burning in British Columbia and Manitoba have forced thousands of people to evacuate and spread hazardous smoke into the northern United States, prompting air quality alerts.

    OBSERVATION - Yes, fire season has already begun and for those Freepers who live in what many call urban-woodland interface areas should get a head of the power curve and review their preparations for wild fire responses. Check your potential evacuation routes for passability. Repack your GO bags, important papers, your communications plans and rally points. If you have livestock (horses, etc), make sure you have them covered as well.

    Fires can give you essentially zero warning and lack of preparedness will kill - take for example the losses from the Paradise fire in Kalifornia a number of years ago. Enhance your ability to get early warning of fire activity and by all means - get out of dodge early rather than at the last minute.

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/14/2024 7:18:00 AM PDT · 499 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    The World Health Organization (WHO) has watered down some provisions of its pandemic agreements ahead of the upcoming World Health Assembly on May 27. Critics in the United States, however, say the changes don’t do enough to address the concerns over the policy.
    The release of the latest draft of the amendments, dated April 17, are the first public update on the IHR draft, which was initially made public early 2023.

    “In most areas, and for all of those which most concerned us from a legal perspective, the interim draft reflects a major retreat by the WHO Working Group from the text of the original proposals,” write English solicitors Ben and Molly Kingsley in an April briefing paper regarding the new amendments.

    Some WHO-watchers remain wary, however.

    “Practically all the bad things are still there,” Dr. Meryl Nass, a U.S.-based physician and vocal critic of the WHO agreements, told The Epoch Times.

    “The language is gentler, but since there is so much to be decided later it is not clear the gentler language is meaningful,” Dr. Nass said.

    “My best guess is that they are desperate to get something passed, so the options are likely to be either a vanilla version of the treaty … or a delay. But they fear delay because people are waking up.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/article/who-makes-key-concessions-ahead-of-pandemic-treaty-vote-5647276?utm_source=partner&utm_campaign=ZeroHedge&src_src=partner&src_cmp=ZeroHedge

    OBSERVATION - The pandemic ‘treaty’ is hitting pushback in what once was thought to be a cakewalk. I share a similar opinion as the article - the WHO is now desperate to get this thing passed in order to get the camel’s nose under the tent so to speak, with warm, fuzzy language that can be modified at a later date without the intense scrutiny the treaty is receiving today. Many of the “concessions” could also be quickly reversed in the face of another plandemic.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    A volunteer for the Trump campaign headquarters in Limestone County, Alabama was brutally attacked Saturday afternoon while she was leaving the premises.
    The Alabama Republican Party identified the victim as Tara Johnson.

    AL.com reports Johnson was in her vehicle when the attacker “grabbed her by the hair, repeatedly punched her in the face and slammed her head against the door of her truck.”

    https://www.toddstarnes.com/crime/female-trump-volunteer-brutally-beaten-in-politically-motivated-attack/

    OBSERVATION - Though still under investigation, such attacks are commonly encouraged by leftist, Antifa related sources across the inter webs. I expect that more assaults like this will become more common as November approaches.


    Economy-

    Housing numbers are coming in and they are not looking good. The combination of high prices and equally high mortgage rates have driven buyers out of the market. Evidence that the mean home price has dropped to $400K, lowest since 2021, interest rates now pushing past the 7% mark.


    Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

    More continued rumbling about the avian flu being the next great pandemic. They are telegraphing their next move folks.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    The Biden campaign has a new explanation for its current position in the 2024 election: The polls are fake.

    That doesn’t mean every poll is correct, but there’s no way to know which ones are in the meantime. Polling aggregates have become popular for a reason, and while the Biden campaign wants to call the Times survey an outlier, Trump is still up in the overall aggregate as well, which would portend an electoral blowout given the dynamics of the electoral college.

    https://redstate.com/bonchie/2024/05/14/biden-campaign-desperation-sets-in-starts-saying-the-polls-fake-n2174168#google_vignette

    OBSERVATION - biden camp is taking these polls seriously, suggesting that the fundamentals behind them match what they are seeing and don’t want the public to be informed about them. As I’ve noted before, many of these polls are designed to shape public perception and thought.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    Biden administration is under fire after reportedly withholding intelligence on the locations of senior Hamas officials to pressure Israel into giving up its planned invasion of Rafah.


    Illegal Immigration –

    The northern border of the US continues to see record numbers of captured illegals. For example, from April 28 to May 4, one week, Border Patrol agents apprehended 492 illegal aliens. That was more than the total apprehensions for all of 2021. In 2021, the total number for the entire fiscal year was 365.
    Chief Patrol Agent Garcia said that during the week before that, Champlain Border Patrol agents apprehended 220 illegals. It was “the highest number ever encountered in a single week in Swanton Sector history.”

    https://hotair.com/karen-townsend/2024/05/13/northern-border-apprehensions-highest-in-us-history-includes-terror-watch-list-suspects-n3788313

    OBSERVATION - Illegal apprehensions have been buried by other news items lately. Still at record levels across both border regions. With improving weather conditions, I expect that the northern border will get even more action in the coming months.


    China –

    Military analysts are suggesting that Chinas increasing presence in the seas around Taiwan have a specific goal to lull the Taiwanese military into a false sense of normalcy so that when China decides to implement a blockade of the Island, they can do so quickly and with a minimum of initial response from Taiwan. The blockade theory is rising as the most likely course of action that China will take against Taiwan, posing the least risk to the mainland and preserving forces from an allied assault.


    Phillipines –

    China is deploying many ships to blockade Scarborough Shoal (Bajo de Masinloc) ahead of a Philippine civilian resupply mission on Tuesday that sends supplies to fishermen operating in the area, which is inside the Philippine exclusive economic zone.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast

    RUMINT –
    Reports coming out that Kharkiv authorities pocketed much of $200 million that was designated to construct defensives towards the border regions.

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukrainian air defense shot down 18 of 18 Shahed drones overnight over western Ukraine. The Ukrainian General Staff reports that another Su-25 was shot down in the Donetsk region. This is the 3rd claimed downing of a Russian fighter jet in recent weeks.

    Over all, reported combat events have doubled over averages from last month.

    Russian forces continue to consolidate gains in Kharkiv provence, where it is estimated that Russian has committed 30,000 troops to the assault.

    The Head of the Sumy Region of northeastern Ukraine has ordered an immediate evacuation for the towns of Vorozhba and Bilopillya near the border with the Kursk Region of Russia, due to a significant increase over the last 24 hours in cross-border shelling and the possibility of Russian ground forces soon entering the region.

    New reports that Ukraine was aware of the build up of forces opposite of Kharkiv within Russia over the past months, but were prohibited from striking these troop concentrations with western munitions by the US and others. This created ‘sanctuary’ areas that facilitated the current Russian attacks.

    This morning, Ukrainian forces successfully hit a Russian ammunition dump outside of Sorokyne, Luhansk Oblast. Loud secondary explosions could be heard throughout the area.

    Ukrainian Su-24M/Mr type aircraft launched 6 Storm Shadow type winged missiles from their nearest deployment zone, 267 km away, targeting the Russian air defense’s 3rd Radiotechnical Regiment at the Ai-Petri Mountain in occupied Crimea.
    According to reports, this strike resulted in significant damage to the base and also killed the commander of the Russian military unit 85683, Alexander Kulakov.

    Outlook —

    Things are looking bleaker in the Kharkiv region. Russian have taken a pretty large chunk of land. Now if the information is correct, Ukraine could face another assault in the NE corner of the country toward the city of Sumy. Both Sumy and Kharkiv were likely undermanned with forces shifted to the south. Russia may well be able to maintain the captured territory in part since they now have considerably more troops in theater than when the invasion first began.
    If the stories of corruption in the Kharkiv region are correct, things are even worse.

    Russian losses are correspondingly high but then the Ukraine losses are high as well. Are Kharkiv and Sumy at risk of falling - no, but the territorial losses place Ukraine at a disadvantage and my cause western allies to loosen up restriction on attacking Russia proper with the munitions supplied. Already Britain has given the go for its munitions.


    Europe / NATO General –

    The Estonian government is “seriously” discussing the potential deployment of Estonian troops in non-combat roles in Ukraine, said Madis Roll, the national security advisor to the president, in an interview with Breaking Defense published on May 13.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Today is Israel’s 76th Independence Day.

    - Tank heavy units penetrate into the central portions of Rafah.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    UN admits Gaza death toll wrong, with almost 50% fewer women, children killed than previously reported. Blames ‘fog of war’ for the incorrect count - ignoring that they were fed these numbers by Hamas.

    ***
    Hamas’ armed wing Al Qassam Brigades said on Monday it had lost contact with militants guarding four Israeli hostages, including U.S.-Israeli citizen Hersh Golberg-Poline, reportedly due to Israeli bombardment of Gaza over the past 10 days.

    ***
    U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan said on Monday that President Joe Biden’s administration did not view the killings of Palestinians in Gaza by Israel in its war with Hamas as a genocide.

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Israel launches a renewed offensive into Eastern Rafah.
    Israeli tanks have entered the neighborhoods of Al-Jneina, Al-Salam and Al-Brazil.

    A few rockets were launched from the Gaza Strip at the southern city of Ashkelon

    IDF engaged in fighting pockets of Hamas in the Gaza city area.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    IAF and artillery hit Hezbollah positions in S Lebanon overnight.

    ———WEST BANK——————————-

    Numerous Israeli security force operations throughout the West Bank overnight

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    Egypt is considering to downgrade its diplomatic ties with Israel over Rafah operation, Egyptian officials told WSJ

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    Rafah operation will continue to intensify in spite of US meddling.

    IDF operations against reformed Hamas elements in N and Central Gaza to continue as well.

    Conflict along the border with Lebanon looks to continue at current levels. No evidence that Hezbollah is coming to the aid of Hamas.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/13/2024 5:49:58 AM PDT · 495 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    Professor Bill McGuire is a well-known vulcanologist and climate scientist who doesn’t care much for humanity. He tweeted out a scathingly brilliant idea if you’re in the mortuary business or work as a grave digger.
    “If I am brutally honest, the only realistic way I see emissions falling as fast as they need to, to avoid catastrophic #climate breakdown, is the culling of the human population by a pandemic with a very high fatality rate.” https://t.co/hzga69EhV3
    — Bill McGuire (@ProfBillMcGuire) May 11, 2024

    https://pjmedia.com/rick-moran/2024/05/12/climatge-professor-thinks-we-should-cull-the-human-population-to-reach-emissions-targets-n4928981#google_vignette

    OBSERVATION - He later deleted the tweet saying that too many people were taking it the wrong way. Pretty sad mea culpa. This depopulation theme is well documented among the WEF types and goals. The infamous (now extinct) Georgia Guidestones called for reducing the global population to 500 million. Hence the recurring belief that the wuhan mRNA jab was an initial tool to begin the process.
    Perhaps he should just shut up and study volcanos.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    Andy NGO reports on “X”- Online far-left accounts are sharing a virtual flyer calling for May 15 to be a day to riot for Gaza.
    “It’s time to escalate,” the flyer reads. The extremists want the riots to be politically destabilizing to the U.S.

    OBSERVATION - Now that school is out for the summer, Antifa et al has lost a lot of mind-numbed students for their campus protests. This call out for more violent “protests” appears to be an effort to ramp up and retain the initiative the college protests provided. I expect local events at this stage, more violent in the Antifa heartlands, and less so in the soft liberal areas. Monitoring to seen if things change between now and then.


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.


    Economy-

    CPI numbers are expected to be out Wednesday May 15. Reporters are noting that the govt is playing with the numbers. in this case, they are removing coffee from the index. What you may not have realized is there was significant increase in coffee prices from March - May, 2024. Since September 2023, coffee prices are up a 78%.
    From January 1st of this year through the high in April when this change was announced, coffee prices gained 35%.

    ***
    (Bloomberg) — Roughly one in 37 homes are now considered seriously underwater in the US and that share is much higher across a swath of southern states, according to data out Thursday.

    Nationally, 2.7% of homes carried loan balances at least 25% more than their market value in the first few months of the year. That’s up from 2.6% in the previous quarter, according to the first-quarter 2024 US Home Equity & Underwater Report from ATTOM, a real estate data firm.

    OBSERVATION - Saw this happen back in 2008 with my home at the time, though not near the 25% level. Totally upended the housing market for a couple of years. Not a good sign.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    There are reports surfacing that the DNC is considering moving a lot of the convention on-line to avoid protests/rioting from the ascending, pro-Hamas flank of the party. This could be done in part by minimizing live programming and openings for protest in Chicago’s United Center. This would mean moving party business, such as rules and platform votes, off the floor and denying would-be demonstrators a chance to seize on contentious debates.

    OBSERVATION - Both conventions are in dark blue cities, so the fuel for riots is already at hand. I Chicago’s case, not only is the wrath of pro-hamas elements on the rise, but the standard black community is highly agitated due to the preferential treatment illegals are getting. Black community leaders have warned of protests for several month now.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    biden still trying to find ways to walk back his decision to block congressionally approved arms shipments to Israel in the face of intense pushback from rank and file democrats who are in general pro-Israeli.


    Russia -

    WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    Russian Personnel Issues –-

    Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been fired. Andrey Belousov, First Deputy Prime Minister, and a longtime economist, replaces him.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 50-70 range with little to no rain in the forecast

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    The General Staff of Ukraine reporting on the status of the fighting in the Kharkiv region - Combat operations continue in the directions Pylna - Lukyantsi, Pylna - Hlyboke, Pylna - Oliynikove, Murom - Buhruvatka. Russian troops carrying out assaults in the directions of Strilecha - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Hlyboke, Oliynikovo - Lukyantsi, Murom - Staritsa, Pletenivka - Tyche. - Fighting continues for the border town of Vovchansk.

    The evacuation of people in the Kharkiv region has been going on for more than two days, - the Regional Emergency Service. Currently, more than 4,500 residents have been evacuated from the border settlements of Bogodukhiv, Chuhuiv and Kharkiv districts

    Ukrainian Sources are reporting that overnight several additional brigade-sized elements of the Russian ground forces, consisting of thousands of troops as well as hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery, crossed the northeastern Ukraine border utilizing the multiple bridgeheads that had already been established over the last 48-72 hours.

    Outlook —

    The new offensive in Kharkiv province is not going well for Ukraine at the moment. However, much of the Russian land grab consists of lightly screened border areas. As noted before, one of the key reasons for the attack is to freeze Ukraine forces the region and prevent movement to the current main offensive further to the south.

    However, analysts have noted other potential reasons for this attack. The Siverskyi Donets River is the most prominent geographical feature in the immediate area and poses as a major obstacle that divides Kharkiv from land to the east that stretches to Kupyansk and Dvorichna
    If this Russian offensive is for real and this is not a feign to draw off already stretched Ukrainian forces, the area stretching from the Siverskyi Donets to the Oskil River could be what Russia is after.

    Another goal may be to get within the 25 km radius of Kharkiv. At this distance, conventional artillery can range the town. To date, Kharkiv has been hammered by missiles, drones and glide bombs. Getting within tube artillery range will add significantly to the attack.

    Much of the recent Russian gains have been lateral - joining the two assaults together. Ukraine defenses have stiffened with counter attacks seeking to slow the advance.

    Current assessments by analysts indicate that the current Russian forces being employed are insufficient to take Kharkiv, but the Russian push there still strategically significant as a means to achieve other goals in Ukraine.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Intense fighting in N Gaza

    - Rafah campaign continues to increase in intensity.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***

    The Israel Defense Force has announced that a Joint-Operation with Shin Bet last Friday resulted in the Elimination of Naim Gol, one of the Member of Hamas’s Shari Battalion who was Responsible for the Guarding of Corporal Noa Marciano, a Soldier in the IDF who was Kidnapped by Hamas during the October 7th Massacre and then Killed at some point by Doctors at Al-Shifa Hospital in Gaza City.

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Intense Israeli airstrikes on northern Gaza as IDF presses attacks against Hamas elements trying to reconstitute there.
    Mujahideen Brigades - We are engaged in fierce clashes with Israeli forces with appropriate weapons east of Jabalia camp, north of the Gaza Strip.

    Israeli Armed forces are sending new reinforcements in an attempt to penetrate into the Jabalia camp in the northern Gaza Strip

    IDF continues to expand operations in Rafah. Large airstrikes hitting targets at the center of the town.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Israeli Army Radio reports 3 missiles were launched from southern Lebanon towards Branit in the Western Galilee.

    Hezbollah says it launched an attack with a swarm of drones on a military site in northern Israel. Two explosive-laden drones launched from Lebanon struck an area near the northern community of Beit Hillel earlier this morning, the military says. The Israeli army says the blasts sparked a fire which was extinguished a short while later.There are no injuries.

    ———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————

    CENTCOM intercepted Houthi drones over the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    IDF operations in the Jabalia Camp, N Gaza to continue to ramp up as they have managed to trap a sizable Hamas force. Israeli tactics, once again, is to pull out and give Hamas et al an opportunity to crawl out of their holes and try to reform. IDF surveillance catches all of this then strikes back quickly at the now exposed Hamas elements. IDF has used this tactic several times with good success.

    Rafah ops continue to expand in spite of biden’s demands for it to stop. Netanyahu called biden’s bluff on this one. It looks like deliveries will resume with the tag of not to use against Rafah. I think Israel is “Ok” with that as they have sufficient for Rafah anyway and need to stock up for the Hezbollah campaign.

    Action by Hezbollah and the “Islamic Resistance” is not expected to be significant in the near future.


    Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024

    Iranian lawmaker Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani claimed on Friday that Iran possesses nuclear weapons, despite the country’s formal policy under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). This statement came shortly after the UN’s atomic watchdog highlighted Iran’s capacity to produce multiple nuclear bombs, Fox News reported.

    OBSERVATION - More likely rhetoric than reality at this stage.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/12/2024 6:29:57 AM PDT · 492 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    Reports indicate Slovakia, a member of the European Union, will reject the World Health Organization’s pandemic treaty.

    “Peter Kotlár, the Slovak Government Plenipotentiary for the COVID-19 pandemic, informed that Slovakia would not support the current version of the new pandemic treaty or the draft amendment to the International Health Regulations,” Radio Slovakia International reports.

    The Health Ministry noted that it would not support any documents weakening Slovakia’s position as a sovereign state. Kotlár also had a meeting with WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus who stated that he respected the decision of the Slovak Republic, but also encouraged the search for possible ways to reach an agreement.

    https://100percentfedup.com/another-european-country-reject-who-pandemic-treaty/

    OBSERVATION - Another bump in the WHO’s quest for world domination. What was once seen as a slam dunk, Britain and now Slovakia may represent a breach of the so called ‘consensus’ now that the rubber is about to meet the road the end of this month.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    Minor pro-hamas protests overnight, nothing major is reportedly planned for today.


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    RCPolitics and FiveThirtyEight are now showing Biden losing to Trump by the largest margin in every single battle ground state as of 5/8/24
    Joe Biden’s approval has also dropped to the lowest yet for his time in office, beating his previous of 37.9 in July 2022, and the lowest in history for any US President in office on this day of their term

    OBSERVATION - These are composite of multiple polls and as with all polls caution is urged in their results. However, because these are a composite, they do indicated seriously negative trends for biden. Especially in the face that trump was able to gather 80,000-100,000 supporters in dark blue NJ yesterday for the largest political gathering in the states history.


    China –

    Xi has re arranged the strategic levels of the military again. Partially to gain greater control over purity of support to his regime as well as to better quantify logistical growth and support to the different branches.


    Russia -

    WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****

    Logistics –

    Since invading Ukraine in February 2022, Russia has lost nearly 700 fixed wing aircraft and helicopters. About half the losses have been the more expensive fixed wing fighter-bombers and specialized surveillance and electronic warfare aircraft. So far that is about ten percent of the official number of Russian military aircraft, counting all the ones nominally available including those out of service in storage. The worst aspect of this is that Russia is only able to replace five percent of these losses because the companies that build aircraft are too few to produce what is needed and were believed unable to increase production because of international economic sanctions.

    Meanwhile the air force continues to lose aircraft and helicopters. Since early 2022, the Russians have lost about nearly 400 fighters, fighter-bombers, and attack aircraft. Most of the fighter losses were the modern Su-30/34/35 aircraft. The attack aircraft losses consisted of Su-24s and Su-25s. A similar number of helicopters have been lost.

    https://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htatrit/articles/202405120439.aspx


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Russian Ministry of Defense claims control over Hatysche, Krasne, Morokhovets and Oliiynykove villages of Kharkiv region of Ukraine. Russian Group north attacked with 5 battalions with some OSINT observers suggesting that they lost at least 20% on the first day.
    Russians have destroyed the Staryi Saltiv Dam in the Kharkiv region.

    Ukrainian Defense forces countering Russian offensive attempts at the North-west and north of Liptsy, Kharkiv region - spokesperson.

    Heavy fighting at Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne, with limited gains by Russia. Increased Russian attacks on other sectors of the eastern front as well.

    Ukrainian Army just shot down a Russian Su-25 close air support jet over Eastern Ukraine

    On the night of May 11, GUR drones attacked the “Lukoil” oil refinery, - source of UP in GUR. Drones have also attacked refinery in Volgograd, causing a fire

    Outlook —

    The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has pushed several kilometers into Ukraine. Much of the territory lost was sparsely defended with the main defensive lines 10-15 km from the border. In spite of the relatively low initial Ukraine resistance, Russian forces are said to have sustained significant losses and their supply trains seriously impacted. Ukraine is starting to counter attack to halt the advance. As stated before, the likely goal of the Russian effort is to freeze Ukrainian assets in place and prevent them from redeployment to the main push at Chaziv Yar and Ocheretyne.

    Increasing presence of Ukrainian MANPADS is taking bigger bites out of Russian CAS, taking out another Su-25. This will eventually force Russia to rely upon lobbing bombs into target zones and less responsively support to ground troops.

    Ukraine continues to hammer Russian oil refineries and associated facilities. Russia has been slow to respond with its deep warfare, possibly indicating growing shortages of missiles.

    Russia expected to maintain the initiative in eastern Ukraine, however, it appears that operations are significantly slowing in part due to the initial arrival of US designated munitions.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Hamas released another propaganda video - this time showing hostage, Nadav Popplewell.

    - IDF expanding operations in Rafah.

    - IDF conducting raids in central and northern Gaza.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***
    On Friday, the Biden administration announced that the U.S. will continue transferring military arms to Israel for its ongoing conflict with Hamas in Gaza. This decision follows a U.S. report which affirmed that Israel’s assurances of compliance with international law were “credible and reliable.”

    ***

    Hamas have released another propaganda video - this time showing hostage, Nadav Popplewell. It is the first sign of life from 51-year-old Nadav, who was abducted from Kibbutz Nirim on October 7. The video shows Nadav with a black eye reading a short script before the video cuts to a large question mark about his fate.

    ***
    The Biden administration has offered Israel both intelligence and supplies, if Israel will agree to end its ground invasion of Rafah, the Washington Post reported. The intelligence would help Israel locate both Hamas’ leaders and hidden tunnels, four people familiar with the offer told the Post.

    ***
    Contrary to prior speculation, October 7th terrorist mastermind, Yahya Sinwar is not hiding in Rafah, but according to intelligence reports, is most likely in tunnels under Khan Younis, an area the IDF left about a month ago, Israeli officials told The New York Times.
    Although the IDF has succeeded in eliminating Hamas’s number 3 leader, Marwan Issa, along with a several senior commanders, Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, chief of Hamas’s military wing, still remain at large.

    https://worldisraelnews.com/sinwar-is-not-in-rafah-israeli-officials-report/

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Following attempts by Hamas to reassemble its terrorist infrastructure and operatives in Jabaliya, the IDF has called on the civilian population of Jabaliya and the surrounding areas to temporarily evacuate to shelters in western Gaza City. IDF launching raid missions to destroy assembled Hamas forces.

    Israel Defense Forces on Saturday called on additional neighborhoods of the southern city of Rafah in the Gaza Strip to evacuate ahead of an expected widening in its ongoing military operations over the past few days.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    The Israeli Army reports that during the past week, they bombed more than 120 Hezbollah targets and killed more than 10 militants in Lebanon.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    UN General Assembly adopted a resolution, recommending Security Council reconsider the matter of Palestine’s membership favorably; changing modalities for its participation in meetings

    RESULT:
    IN FAVOR: 143
    AGAINST: 9
    ABSTAIN: 25

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    Israel restated that it will conduct its Rafah operation with or without US help. Leaflets calling for more evacuations were distributed overnight, indicating an escalation of the operation.

    In other parts of Gaza, IDF is preparing to reenter areas to clean out Hamas elements that are attempting to reform in those areas. This tactic has so far been effective in continuing the depletion of Hamas fighters while minimizing the IDF forces in Gaza. Essentially, IDF luring them into traps and then taking them out in a larger scale than hunting down smaller individual/squad sized elements.

    The US continues to do what it can to thwart the Israeli operation in Rafah, this time promising super secret information on the locations of key Hamas leaders. As a former intel officer, I just shake my head at this claim. Israel has highly trained and experienced intel folks right there - on the ground - and likely has far greater knowledge of who’s where than the biden regime. US assets would be largely limited to national level systems for IMINT and COMINT, lacking sorely in HUMINT. All three are not near what Israel has at hand for the operation.

    Operations against Hezbollah continue as in the past. I currently do not see Hezbollah ramping up any major actions to support Hamas at this juncture.

    I expect Israel to continue to expand its operations in Rafah and other parts of Gaza.


    Misc of Note –

    Everyone is still talking about Friday nights Severe Geomagnetic Storm. Initially Space weather put out a G4 alert, only to raise it to a G5.

    The last G5 storm to hit Earth this strong was in October 2003, which sparked power outages across Sweden and damaged transformers in South Africa. Since then, the economy’s digitalization has dramatically increased, which means there’s an increasing risk of grid failures and disruptions in communication networks.

    This time around, some effects were noted on some power grids, but no serious affects otherwise. Satellites so far seem to have weathered the storm, particularly the massive network of Space X systems.

    There is a strong possibility of another G4/5 storm again tonight as multiple CMEs are expected to hit at about the same time - anchored by a X5.8 blast yesterday.

    My viewing here in the Redoubt was spectacular. If it goes G5 tonight, well worth trying to view. Check spaceweather.com for updates.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/11/2024 11:27:08 AM PDT · 491 of 531
    Godzilla to Lazamataz; null and void

    Spectacular clear night and very active aurora. My best views were surprisingly in town in spite of the lights.

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/11/2024 6:39:12 AM PDT · 488 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    No post today, up all night watching the aurora

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/10/2024 5:49:48 AM PDT · 486 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    May 8 (Reuters) - Britain is refusing to sign the World Health Organization’s (WHO) pandemic accord because the country says it would have to give away a fifth of its vaccines, the Telegraph reported on Wednesday.
    According to a draft of the pandemic accord being negotiated at the WHO, richer countries should be asked to pull their weight in helping the world cope with pandemics, including reserving 20% of tests, treatments and vaccines for the WHO to distribute in poorer countries during emergencies.

    OBSERVATION - Interesting development. Britain objects to giving away 20% of its vaccines to poorer nations. Britain has been a very compliant globalist nation. This casts doubt on the pandemic “treaty” ability to pass, if Britain is any signal.

    There have been some unconfirmed rumors that the WHO may back off trying to push this ‘treaty’ through this year. Perhaps these rumors may be based on reports like this one where a major player appears to no longer want to play.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    The weekend is approaching and there is the possibility of renewed pro-hamas protests now that operations have begun in Rafah. However, with most colleges and Universities entering summer break, the number of available sheeple to rally for these events has thinned out. So far only limited numbers of ‘large’ rallies being announced.

    ***
    The IRS will now target individuals who threaten the U.S. government’s ‘ability to govern,’ a vague new criterion for criminal investigations. This includes protesters of ‘foreign relations’ under the guise of ‘national security,’ according to its updated operating manual.

    According to the IRS, ‘national security’ refers to “The national defense or foreign relations of the U.S. and includes, within a Treasury context, U.S. economic vitality, global competitiveness, market sensitivity, and tracking terrorist assets/financial crimes.”

    https://www.irs.gov/irm/part10/irm_10-009-001

    OBSERVATION - Bad signs that the IRS will be expanding its tactics against Americans in the future. That’s what happens when you add 18,000 agents plus have a ton of arms and ammunition.

    ***
    A strategy document for the National Students for Justice in Palestine (NSJP), the U.S.’s largest pro-Palestinian college campus group, called for a “unity intifada” at colleges across the country on Oct. 8, the day after Hamas’ terrorist attack in Israel, and mobilized its network of agitators for a “national day of resistance” that would “normalize” terrorism against the Jewish state.
    The document, reviewed by the Washington Free Beacon, offered insights into the NSJP’s campus playbook, showing the group anticipated a conflict in the Middle East and was prepared to unleash its army of followers on college campuses across the U.S.

    https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/campus-protests-pro-palestinian-playbook-lawsuit/2024/05/09/id/1164178/

    OBSERVATION - This documents the spread of these ‘insurrections’ across university and college campuses of late. Add to this the merger with Antifa and affiliated leftist organizations that brought with them the doctrine and origination for violent actions to promote and defend these camps and you have the bigger picture. Funds provided by the big time democrat piggy banks.

    ***
    (FO) According to an FBI internal email obtained by WIRED magazine, FBI Deputy Director Paul Abbate urged FBI employees to “continue to look for ways to appropriately use US person queries to advance the mission.”
    Rep. Zoe Lofgren (D-CA) said the email “seems to show that the FBI is actively pushing for more surveillance of Americans, not out of necessity but as a default,” and the email “directly contradicts earlier assertions from the FBI during the debate over Section 702’s reauthorization.”

    OBSERVATION - As the election approaches, the deep state is accelerating its intelligence collection efforts to identify US persons who may tip the apple cart so to speak. There are a number of unspeakable ways this intelligence can be used, from open arrests and prosecutions to subversive hits and arrests of the order of the J6 political prisoners.


    Economy-

    In an effort to ramp up antitrust enforcement, the Federal Trade Commission appear willing to bring back a 1930s-era law, the Robinson-Patman Act, from its dormancy. The law largely prohibits vendors from offering products of similar “grade and quality” to different buyers at different prices. Most notably, this prohibition prevents vendors from offering discounts to large buyers that are willing to buy high quantities of a product. The law went unenforced for decades, as courts and policymakers saw its detrimental effects for consumers and the economy at large. By bringing it back, the FTC will make the American supply chain less resilient and more vulnerable to shocks, such as the ones experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.

    The FTC’s ramp up of Robinson-Patman enforcement started earlier this year, according to a Politico report that claimed that the agency had launched inquiries against Coca-Cola and Pepsi for supposedly offering lower prices to large retailers. Additionally, a group of 14 lawmakers led by Democratic Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren recently submitted a letter to the FTC calling for increased Robinson-Patman scrutiny by the agency.

    https://issuesinsights.com/2024/05/10/the-ftcs-plan-to-revive-a-zombie-bill-will-undermine-americas-supply-chain/

    OBSERVATION - Looks more to be govt interference than anything else. 1930’s era economy is not the same as today’s. And so far, the govts track record is to totally mess everything up that they stick their nose into.

    ***
    (FO) Rep. John Joyce (R-PA) said a new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) rule regulating chemicals used in fuel refining would “cripple” the U.S. refining industry. Industry groups said the new rule that will require refiners to find alternative chemicals for fuel refining would be prohibitively expensive.

    OBSERVATION - All part of the coordinated effort by the regime and its globalist puppet masters to cripple and essentially destroy our oil and gas industry. Regulate it out of existence.


    Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –

    In a recent Senate Committee briefing, Dr. Robert Califf, the head of the FDA, announced proactive measures being implemented in preparation for a potential bird flu pandemic that could prove deadly to a significant portion of the infected population.

    He highlighted that while the risk of transmission to humans remains low, the agency is not taking any chances, according to Daily Mail.

    Dr. Califf reported that only one human case has been confirmed so far—a farm worker in Texas this past March. Despite this, the potential for the virus to mutate and spread to humans necessitates rigorous preparedness.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/05/here-we-go-fda-warns-potential-bird-flu/

    OBSERVATION - driving this warning is the claim that in other regions the mortality rate has escalated to 25 percent, or one in every four infected individuals. But this takes data from as far back as 2008 and doesn’t account for less lethal mutations. Many are skeptical and for good reason given the response for wuhan.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    Rep. Cory Mills, R-Fla., on Thursday submitted to House counsel impeachment articles alleging Joe Biden is compromising national security with his withholding of military aid to Israel. Sen. Tom Cotton proposed similar action in an X post.

    OBSERVATION - Rumors that the regime is shocked at the strong pushback on it withholding of ammo from both sides of the aisle and may be seeking some way to walk it back. Many see biden’s actions an attempt to win back radical leftists/socialist college aged voters as well as radical islamics votes back. In doing so he is apparently throwing is broader, pro-israel base under the bus.


    China –

    Destroyer USS Halsey (DDG-97) performed a Taiwan Strait transit on Wednesday, U.S. 7th Fleet announced.

    “The ship transited through a corridor in the Strait that is beyond the territorial sea of any coastal State.” U.S. 7th Fleet said in a statement. “Halsey‘s transit through the Taiwan Strait demonstrates the United States’ commitment to upholding freedom of navigation for all nations as a principle. No member of the international community should be intimidated or coerced into giving up their rights and freedoms.”

    Halsey‘s transit is the third publicly announced Taiwan Strait transit in 2024. Destroyer USS John Finn (DDG-113), which is based in Yokosuka, Japan, performed transits through the 90-mile wide strait in January and March.

    Until 6 a.m. local time on Wednesday, 6 PLAN ships and 16 PLA aircraft were sailing and flying near Taiwan, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense.

    https://news.usni.org/2024/05/08/destroyer-uss-halsey-sails-through-taiwan-strait

    OBSERVATION - Transit by US vessels not uncommon. In the same manner the presence of Chinese ships and planes are at about the same level on a daily basis, though not reported on much lately.


    Russia -

    WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    Russia only had one tank in the parade yesterday - a WW2 / cold war vintage T-34.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    The rumored Russian offensive towards Kharkiv may be in is initial stages. Ukrainian Ministry of Defense reports that Ukrainian armed forces repelled Russian breakthrough attempt at Vovchansk direction, near Kharkiv. This resulted in the evacuation of civilian population.
    A little further to the west, clashes with attacking Russian infantry at Borysivka, Pylna, Krasne villages of Kharkiv region, attempts of attacks at Hoptivka and Strilecha, Russian attack at Hatyshche were repelled.

    Ukrainian Air Defense shot down 10 of 10 Shahed drones overnight. Also reports of a Russian Su-25 getting shot down over Avdiivka

    Russian media report a drone attack on a Russian oil refinery near Kaluga, Russia. It is the largest oil refinery in the Kaluga region of Russia and the main complex for processing commercial oil and gas condensate. The nominal oil refining capacity is 1.2 million tons per year. This refinery was already attacked on March 15th.
    .

    Outlook —

    As Ive noted, reportedly 40,000 Russian troops have been arrayed opposite Kharkiv and prepared for an offensive to capture the city. There is considerable disagreement in some of the OSINT world and general media as to the size and nature of the recent Russian attacks. The best consensus is that these attacks are reconnaissance in force actions - hard probing of Ukraine defenses to seek weaknesses for exploitation by follow-on forces. Strategic goals appear more to attempt to freeze Ukraine forces in place and prevent any from being shifted southward where the current Russian offensive is ongoing.

    Russians failed in 2022 to seize Kharkiv and were forced back to the border by the end of that year. If the 40,000 number is correct, this is still too few to effectively take the city, but substantial enough to freeze Ukraine forces in place.

    Action in the Kharkiv region is to be watched.

    Ground attacks further south have Russian making small gains with continued high losses on men and equipment. These losses appear to have increased over the past several days, some believe due to ammo and artillery resupply to Ukraine forces.

    Russian appears to be losing more tactical ground attack aircraft. View is that resupply of MANPADS systems are reaching the front line forces, making life more hostile against these aircraft. This could result in the loss of direct air support which has aided Russia’s advance over the past few months.

    Russia’s limited air superiority may become even more challenged int he coming months as F-16s begin to make their appearance. Russian aircraft may face challenges from both the ground and now the air.

    Ukraine’s ‘deep war’ against soft Russian oil refineries continues to show success, as the recent hits are due to the piper cub type of modified drones flying unchallenged deep into Russia. At one time, Ukraine had shut down about 20+% of Russian refinery capability . With cheap drones, the cost/benefit has ended up hurting Russia.


    Poland –

    Poland’s defense minister said Thursday his country is strengthening the metal barrier along its border with Belarus to deter illegal migration.
    “We are mending the barrier on the Polish-Belarusian border, we are strengthening this barrier,” Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz said on private Radio Zet. “The spending on these purposes is the highest in (Poland´s) history.”

    Kosiniak-Kamysz said the increased presence of Polish and allied military forces in regions close to the border is also helping to tighten the eastern frontier of NATO and the European Union. That presence has been increased since Russia’s aggression in Ukraine in 2022.

    https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2024/05/09/poland-reinforces-border-wall-with-belarus-to-deter-hybrid-warfare-immigration/

    OBSERVATION - Prior to the Russian / Ukraine war, Poland and Belarus almost came to blows over Belarus’ funneling ‘migrants’ into Poland. Tensions have not really subsided since.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - IDF increases search and destroy operations in Rafah.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***

    The Israeli delegation has left Cairo. The negotiation collapsed because Hamas refused to compromise.

    Israel’s ambassador to the United States - Washington’s withholding of weapons from Tel Aviv is unfortunate and sends a “wrong message” to Hamas and Israel’s enemies

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    The IDF has begun a targeted operation in Zeitoun located in central Gaza.
    The operation began with intelligence-based aerial strikes where approx. 25 terrorist targets were dismantled and eliminated including: military structures, terrorist tunnels, observation posts and sniper posts.
    Ground troops are currently operating to secure this area.

    The IDF has started construction of the Philadelphi Corridor, a 1km zone inside Gaza where all buildings will be demolished, that will serve as a permanent military base.

    Israeli tanks captured the main road dividing the eastern and western halves of Rafah on Friday, effectively encircling the entire eastern side of the city in the southern Gaza Strip.

    Over the last 24 Hours; the 162nd “Ha-Plada” Division of the Israel Defense Force has advanced into southern Gaza Strip towards Rafah, with tanks and armored vehicles supported by heavy artillery and airstrikes. Gaza sources report that it has reached several outer neighborhoods to the east of the city.

    Hamas just fired at the Kerem Shalom, the main humanitarian aid crossing into Gaza. This is the fourth time this week that Hamas actively shot at Kerem Shalom. The Israeli army intercepted the missiles.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Yesterday, four members of the Hezbollah terror group’s elite Radwan Force were killed in an alleged Israeli drone strike on a car in Bafliyeh, southern Lebanon. The overnight hours has seen an uptick in cross border exchanges in fire.

    ———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-

    EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell says that Spain, Ireland and Slovenia plan to recognize a Palestinian state on the 21st of May.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    IDF has resumed operations following its tactical pause. They are carving up the city sector by sector. Over a dozen Hamas tunnels have been identified and destroyed in just the first couple days of the operation. Israel is set to complete the operation without the precision munitions that minimize collateral loss of life.

    Hamas sees biden’s withdrawal of support as a victory and has hardened their negotiation position for a future hostage release.

    In the face of domestic blow back I suspect biden will find some way to allow some offensive weapon shipments to resume but don’t bet the farm on that just yet.

    Hezbollah has not shown much interest in launching larger attacks on Israel in support of Hamas. Same goes for the “Islamic Resistance” which has largely been quiet lately. It seems Israel’s counter strike may have shaken Tehran deeper than some believe. Meanwhile, Israel continues to chisel away at Hezbollah leadership and key locations with impunity, degrading their capabilities in advance of the expected IDF ground action later this summer (IMHO).


    Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024

    The Iranian regime will build nuclear bombs should its existence be threatened, a senior Iranian official charged, weeks after an Iranian officer made similar threats.

    “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine,” said Kamal Kharrazi, who heads the Strategic Council for Foreign Relations and is an advisor to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

    https://allisrael.com/iran-will-build-nukes-if-its-existence-is-in-danger-senior-iranian-official-threatens

    OBSERVATION - Obfuscation statement. Iran is pushing for a bomb no matter what but trying to blanket it with denials. Otherwise, Iran wouldn’t have been spending to much time and resources enriching uranium to the 90% level needed for a nuclear weapon.


    Misc of Note –

    After talking about the massive sunspot and a future potential Carrington event yesterday, NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center has since issued a G4 Severe Geomagnetic Storm Watch for Friday, May 10, through Sunday, May 12. They have put out a G4 alert, the highest since 2004. Storms of this size have the potential to disrupt communications, the electric power grid, navigation, radio and satellite operations. It also brings with it the possibility of auroras to be seen as far south as Alabama and Northern California.
    Not a TEOTWAWKI solar storm, but one that could bring some fascinating auroras into view for many.


  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/09/2024 7:04:03 AM PDT · 484 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..

    biden’s actions towards Israel will not be forgotten by our ‘allies’. It goes hand in hand with funding Iran and its terror proxies (Hezbollah and Hamas).

    biden’s decision also effectively kills the US hostages being held by Hamas - who now have less of a need to negotiate a ceasefire for their release.


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    Efforts to force a two state ‘solution’ on Israel and the middle east are an extension of the globalist efforts to reduce the Israeli presence and status in the region.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    Broken into the open when called out as a “power grab,” Gov. Greg Abbott (R-Texas) has expressed his opposition to the Biden administration’s proposal to transfer members of the Air National Guard to the Space Force without the permission of state or territorial governors. He is not alone as the governors of 48 states and five U.S. territories also expressed their opposition to LP 480.

    According to a “Blaze” report - “LP480 would enable the Secretary of the Air Force to transfer the covered space functions currently performed by the Air National Guard to the U.S. Space Force. The secretary would be enabled to change the status of an ANG unit to a unit of the USSF, to deactivate the unit, or to assign the unit to “a new Federal mission.”

    The proposed legislation also waives the requirement to first obtain a governor’s consent prior to making such changes to a National Guard unit.”

    The plan is not being received favorably by NG personnel. In one instance, 70% of Air National Guard (ANG) troops who would be reassigned under the Air Force’s LP480 would rather retire or retrain within the ANG, according to a survey conducted by Brigadier General Michael Bruno of Colorado’s ANG. (FO)

    OBSERVATION - The Air Force is one of the most corrupted, with woke, leftist leadership and willing to be the tip of the spear on this issue. If successful, it is likely the regime will attempt to take control of other components of state’s national guard units. Such a move would preempt use like TX in defending its border as well as block any state initiated military response in the event of a full blown civil war. It centralized power at the federal level and is never what the National Guard concept was designed for.

    ***
    Outside the college encampment protests, small-scale black bloc violence is attempting to increase, reminiscent of 2016 actions that targeted Trump supporters and counter-protesters. Absent the affiliation with pro-hamas terror elements, growth potential in the near term is limited. The big effort I expect to see start in July with the RNC national convention and run at least thru the elections in Nov. Beyond if Trump wins, like in 2016/17


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    CNN to Biden, “Grocery prices are up 30%+ ... that’s a real day-to-day pain that people feel.”
    Biden responds, “They have the money to spend.”


    Russia -

    WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    Russia preparing for its annual victory parade, with substantially fewer vehicles that previous marches.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Ukrainian Air defense shot down 17 of 20 Shahed drones overnight in the Odesa region. U/I missile struck Pryluky of Chernihiv region.

    8 person wounded and widespread damage after Russian air defense repelled alleged attack in Belgorod

    Ukraine drones attacked oil depot at Yurovka village of Krasnodar Krai.
    Fire at SalavatNeftekhim refinery as result of drone attack. Over 1000kms from Ukraine in Bashkortostan

    Russian forces pressing a wide front south of Ocheretyne to the Donetsk area.

    Outlook —

    Russia to continue to press its offensive in eastern Ukraine, in part in an effort to gain as much territory as possible before the Ukrainian defenses stiffen up upon receiving ammo resupply.

    Expect varying degrees of the ‘deep battle’ of drones and missiles by both sides.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - biden orders halt to arms deliveries to Israel to pressure halt to Rafah operation.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***

    The US Secretary of State Blnken publicly announces: We halted arms shipments to Israel in light of the operation in Rafah. We are currently looking at additional shipments depending on the current operation in Rafah. Israel must not carry out an operation in Rafah without a plan that takes into account the safety of the citizens in Rafah.

    Biden is vowing to withhold weapons from Israel if the Jewish State goes forward with its invasion of Rafah, Hamas’ last stronghold in Gaza.
    “Civilians have been killed in Gaza as a consequence of those bombs and other ways in which they go after population centers,” Biden told CNN’s Erin Burnett in an interview released Wednesday.

    “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah – they haven’t gone in Rafah yet – if they go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that have been used historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities – that deal with that problem,” Biden said.
    (Fox News)

    ***
    The United Arab Emirates is expected to submit a resolution at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) to recognize the “State of Palestine” this Friday, the Jerusalem Post reported Thursday morning.
    According to the draft of the resolution: “Palestine is qualified for membership in the United Nations in accordance with Article 4 of the Charter and should therefore be admitted to membership in the United Nations.”

    The text also affirms “the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination, including the right to their independent State of Palestine.”
    Currently, the Palestinian delegation only has observer status in UNGA. The UAE’s resolution is expected to receive majority support in the assembly, where around 140 nations have already independently recognized a Palestinian state in resolutions that cannot be vetoed.

    However, the only way to become a full member state of the UN is through a vote in the Security Council, where the United States has blocked similar advances in the past, most recently in April.

    https://allisrael.com/state-of-palestine-could-be-recognized-by-un-general-assembly-on-friday

    ***
    Israel has said it will press on to finish Hamas off in Rafah with or without US support.

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Ground action in Gaza was active in the north, while in the south around Rafah, activity consisted mostly of air and artillery strikes preparing the battlefield for additional pushes by IDF into the town. IDF also continues to mass ground forces for the clearing of Rafah.

    Hamas launched rockets at the American-made humanitarian aid pier for Gaza. No damage or injuries reported.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    The Israeli military claims to have pushed Hezbollah to “significant distances” from the border with Lebanon, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on Wednesday, amid an ongoing low-intensity conflict with the Iranian-backed terrorist group in the north.

    ——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-

    Israeli army launched an air attack from the direction of the Golan Heights, targeting a building in the Damascus countryside.

    ———WEST BANK——————————-

    Overnight, 25 Palestinians were arrested in the West Bank, including former prisoners

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    biden stuck a big knife in the back of Israel when after he claimed that US support was ‘ironclad’ he announced the arms embargo. The politics of the matter here in the US immediately blew up in his regime’s face from both sides of the aisle. It sends a message that biden has the back of Hamas, and not Israel. The alleged safety of civilians issue the regime is basing its decision on is just a smoke screen as Israel has gone to great lengths to set up relocation locations with food, water and medical in addition to advanced warning to evacuate.

    One immediate consequence will be Israeli recalculations on use of precision guided weapons, probably to use them in support of key targets in close proximity to civilians, leaving the ‘dumb’ bombs to other targets with lower potential collateral damage.

    This also has implications for the coming war against Hezbollah, shorting Israel of ammo it will need for that phase of the war.

    Israel is solid in that it will go into Rafah with or without US support.


    Misc of Note –

    The sun has been very active this past week, kicking out at least 5 flares in the X1 to X4 range - very large explosions. Now, Sunspot AR3664 has grown so large, it now rivals the great Carrington sunspot of 1859.

    The “Carrington Event” has become a touchstone of space weather in pop culture, with recent headlines stoking fears of an “internet apocalypse” if it repeats. Indeed, it could repeat. Studies suggest that Carrington-class storms occur once every 40 to 60 years, so we’re overdue.

    Carrington Event happened in September 1859 when the sunspot threw out what many estimate as an X45 (some recent estimates from review of data possibly as high as X80) flare / CME. The resulting geomagnetic storms set fire to telegraph offices and sparked auroras from Cuba to Hawaii.

    On 23 July 2012, a “Carrington-class” solar superstorm (solar flare, CME, solar electromagnetic pulse) was observed, but its trajectory narrowly missed Earth.

    The current sunspot cluster is earth facing, meaning that if it launches a massive flare, there is a high likelihood of impact of the associated CME. The Carrington caused havoc with the technology of the Victorian era, impact in today’s world is potentially even higher.

    A hint of that impact is the March 1989 geomagnetic storm occurred as part of severe to extreme solar storms during early to mid March 1989, the most notable being a geomagnetic storm that struck Earth on March 13. This geomagnetic storm caused a nine-hour outage of Hydro-Québec’s electricity transmission system. The solar flare that generated that CME was rated at an X15 level - substantially smaller than Carrington.

    Arrival of CMEs can be in as little as 17 hours, though normally within 2 days.

    AR3664 is visible to the eye using ordinary eclipse glasses with no magnification at all. Moreover, it is easy to project an image of this sunspot onto the sidewalk or a white screen just as Carrington did in the 19th century.

    Utility companies claim that their grids have been hardened to deal with massive solar storms - I remain dubious. It would be wise to keep an eye on this growing active region while Earth is in its strike zone

    BTW, at least 5 CMEs are currently projected to impact Earth from May 9 – 13
    G3 – Strong Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect for May 11
    An X2.2 solar flare erupted and a strong CME was produced and is likely Earth-directed, which would make 6 CMEs enroute.

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/08/2024 6:24:24 AM PDT · 482 of 531
    Godzilla to null and void; aragorn; Axenolith; Baynative; Beautiful_Gracious_Skies; bgill; bitt; Black Agnes; ..


    Globalism / Great Reset –
    Upcoming meetings of importance
    - WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024

    With all bouncing around the world, movement towards the approval of the WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ is flying below the radar. Final meeting is scheduled for the latter part of the month.


    CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT

    The threat of a Trump assassination has reared its head by one of the lefts talking heads. Former White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki fantasized about Trump dying before the 2024 election on a Tuesday morning appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” Psaki fantasized about all the ways Trump can be eliminated this election season.
    “Maybe Donald Trump will go away. Maybe he’ll go to jail. Maybe he will die…..”

    OBSERVATION - She is not the first to voice such a desire for the death of Trump. These revelations of the desire to kill Trump illuminate the deep, dark pit of current leftist thinking and many see such statements as potentially conditioning the masses for such an attempt. As questionable at this stage of the election cycle some of these polls are - it seems the left is taking them very seriously and even beginning to fear a blowout of monumental proportions. This will drive further radical actions to get Trump out of the race, especially as the law fare efforts are falling apart.

    One thing that will trigger a violent response from the center-right is an assassination.

    ***
    There are stll a few campus protest tent villages holding out at liberal colleges.

    ***
    Antifa / pro-hamas are calling for emergency protests to stop the Israeli operations in Rafah.

    Antifa elements in Black bloc showed up to disrupt various presentations / meetings, such as one by Charlie Kirk at UW.

    One thing clearly noted is the improvement in personal body armor by the black bloc elements. More tactical (military ) helmets, full face masks, light weight body armor (mostly non bullet proof), improved foot wear, a tactical gloves, etc. In a hand to hand situation they appear to be ready. One important thing to remember is that part of their tactical ‘doctrine’ would include armed elements further back that could in essence provide overwatch fire if necessary. The display of these better equipped forces raise red flags for predicted violence later this summer.


    Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of May 6, 2024

    Israeli operation in Rafah increases the potential for sympathetic, lone wolf attacks here and globally.


    POLITICAL FRONT –

    July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
    August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL

    ***

    Judge Cannon has indefinitely postponed the classified document case against President Trump following revelations and admission by the prosecutor that the govt tampered with evidence.

    Bragg’s case against trump is imploding as well as prosecutors dismantled their own case via their own witnesses.


    Biden / Harris Watch –

    According to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll, black voters’ desire to vote in the 2024 general election has fallen off since 2020, which could be worrisome for President Joe Biden.

    The poll found that 62% of black voters said they were “absolutely certain to vote,” which is down from 74% who said they were certain to vote in June 2020. The Biden campaign recently announced it would spend $25 million trying to reach key demographics of voters in battleground states in what some have called “the largest and earliest investment in Black media for a reelection campaign in history.”

    Younger black voters showed the biggest drop in enthusiasm. Only 41% aged 18-39 said they are certain they will vote in the 2024 general election.

    https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/presidential/2993994/biden-reelection-chances-may-dim-as-core-group-lose-excitement/#google_vignette

    OBSERVATION - Don’t say whoopee too fast but this poll tracks with other similar ones that show support sinking fast.


    Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT as of April 20, 2024


    Illegal Immigration –

    The president elect of Panama has promised to close down illegals migrating thru the country.

    There has been a spike in military aged men from China being intercepted along the Californian border with Mexico.


    Russia -

    WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022

    *****

    Putin began his fifth term as Russian President on May 7 and stressed Russia’s need for unchallenged autocratic rule while indirectly calling for victory in Ukraine.

    ***
    French troops will become a target for the Russian army if they find themselves in the Ukrainian conflict zone - Russian Foreign Ministry

    Logistics –

    Reports that Russia has significantly ramped up its production of arms and ammo in anticipation of a summer offensive.

    Further reports that NK provided ballistic missiles are largely inaccurate and often blow up in flight. Problems also persist with NK supplied artillery rounds.


    Ukraine –

    WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures highs continue in the 60-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Scattered periods of rain..

    24 HOUR ROUND UP –

    Busy overnight as Russia launched a large deep missile attack. Ukrainian air defense shot down 33 of 45 Kh-101 cruise missiles, 4 of 4 Kaliber cruise missiles, 2 of 2 Kh-59/Kh-69 missiles, 20 of 21 Shahed drones overnight. Russia also launched 1 Kh-47M2 missile, 2 ballistic Iskander-M missiles, 1 cruise missile Iskander-K. Lviv region in western Ukraine as well as the Kyiv region were targeted.

    Poland reportedly scrambled aircraft as a precaution.

    Ukrainian forces successfully struck a fuel storage depot in Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast, using at least one US-suppled MGM-140 ATACMS tactical ballistic missile.

    Ground combat subsided slightly overnight, but Russia continues to press its main attacks in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne areas.

    Ukrainian counterintelligence investigators have foiled a Russian plot to assassinate President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other top military and political figures, Ukraine’s state security service said Tuesday.

    Two colonels in the State Guard of Ukraine, which protects top officials, were detained on suspicion of enacting the plan drawn up by Russia’s Federal Security Service, a statement said. The colonels were recruited before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, according to the statement.

    Outlook —

    It has been a while since the last major Russian missile assault, suggesting that supplies may be running low. Ukraine use of ATACAMS on petroleum targets, especially if they use cluster munition ones, has the potential to really harm Russian oil supplies both domestically as well as for military support.

    More evidence that US munitions are quickly reaching embattled Ukraine forces in the Chasiv Yar and Ocheretyne regions as Russian advances appear to be on the brink of stalling out. Now Russian forces have to contend with Ukrainian artillery support they didn’t have to worry about previously.

    I expect that Russia will continue to push its efforts in those two regions to gain as much ground as possible before the effects of a re-armed Ukraine can take full effect.


    Belarus -

    Belarus military forces, and in particular those with nuclear capable missiles, conducted a readiness exercise over the past few days.


    ISRAEL –

    Key overnight developments -

    - Confirmation from the US of deliberate delays of precision munitions in an effort to dissuade the Rafah operation.

    ——— GENERAL ——————————-

    Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.

    ***

    Israel has reopened the Kerem Shalom Crossing with the Gaza Strip for humanitarian aid after it was shuttered on Sunday following a deadly rocket attack

    ***
    Channel 12 reports that a very tense call between Israeli and US officials about the hostage deal occurred prior to the start of the Rafah operation. The Israelis were very upset and concerned about the position taken by the US about the fake Hamas deal. The US told them they refused to reject it flatly and instead said it was a “counter offer.” IMHO, I think it’s related to what was reported in Axios, that Israel believes the US had a part in this deception. Israel, under massive pressure from the US in the past month, comprised to crazy levels while Hamas didn’t move an inch. I think Israel believes the US wants them to compromise even further.

    ***
    A senior US administration official confirmed on Tuesday that the US paused a shipment of bombs to Israel last week over concerns that Israel was approaching a decision on launching a full-scale assault on the southern Gaza city of Rafah, The Associated Press reported.

    The official said the decision to pause the shipment was made last week and no final decision had been made yet on whether to proceed with the shipment at a later date.

    The shipment which was paused was supposed to consist of 1,800 2,000-pound bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs, according to the official, with the focus of U.S. concern being the larger explosives and how they could be used in a dense urban setting.

    The confirmation follows a report by Axios’ Barak Ravid that the Biden administration had stopped a shipment of US-made ammunition to Israel last week.

    https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/389587

    ——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-

    Overnight, there were further Israeli air strikes in the Gaza Strip, hours after Israeli forces backed by tanks took control of the Palestinians side of the key Rafah crossing on the border with Egypt.

    The Israeli bombardment was particularly intense around Rafah. The crossing remained closed on Wednesday morning, but the Israeli military said it was reopening the nearby Kerem Shalom crossing, which had been closed for four days because of Hamas rocket fire.

    Further ground advances, other than those for immediate tactical positioning, appear to remain at a pause. Some media sources are suggesting that the territory gained in the initial attack is being prepared as the jumping-off point for the main thrust into the city.

    A secondary effort may be to ratchet up pressure on Hamas to agree to a real ceasefire deal, not the bogus agreement that Hamas said it would accept just minutes before the attack on the border crossing began. Combat would pose real risks to any surviving hostages and that is something Israel would like to avoid at the present - get as may hostages out of harms way before finishing the job on Hamas.

    ——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-

    Reports of extensive airstrikes overnight in southern Lebanon with IDF aircraft targeting Hezbollah targets after numerous Hezbollah attacks on Israel earlier yesterday.

    ———WEST BANK——————————-

    Israeli security forces continues to raid numerous areas, arresting terrorism suspects.

    ——— FORECAST ————————-

    More revelations of US backstabbing of Israel both on the bogus Hamas acceptance of a ceasefire ‘agreement’ as well as withholding munitions.

    As noted above, Rafah operations are in a tactical pause as IAF softens targets for the next phase of the operation. It doesn’t appear that there will be any significant movement on any hostage release agreement in the near future, so continued ground operations may well begin at any time, once Israel has set the tactical situation into its favor.

    Israel is facing portions of an estimated 8 Hamas ‘battalions’ and has committed 3 brigades for this phase of combat. How combat capable these battalions are is uncertain, but from the force Israel has projected into the operation, they may not be fully up to snuff. However, Israel has many brigades available in ready operational reserve.

    I expect ground operations to resume within the next 24 hours in order to retain the initiative and further pressure Hamas into a hostage release agreement more favorable to israel, similar to the one earlier in the war. Unfortunately, I think the mental mind set of Hamas is to die a martyr’s death and kill the hostages before IAF forces can free them.

    Hezbollah remains and I expect it to continue as such, on the sidelines, offering little in a way of attacking Israel to take pressure off Hamas. Israel has continued to increase military forces towards the north, so that any action by Hezbollah would be strongly countered and result in severe losses.


    Misc of Note –

    The encrypted-messaging service Signal is the application of choice for dissenters around the world. The app has been downloaded by more than 100 million users and boasts high-profile endorsements from NSA leaker Edward Snowden and serial entrepreneur Elon Musk. Signal has created the perception that its users, including political dissidents, can communicate with one another without fear of government interception or persecution.

    https://christopherrufo.com/p/signals-katherine-maher-problem

    OBSERVATION - It would not be surprising to me to see that Signal is compromised in some fashion (see link to article above). As advertised, Signal was to be the unbreakable comms means for all. But if backdoors have been installed, full reliance on its security features would be unwise. Monitoring to see just how bad the potential danger is.

    Also note - it appears that Proton mail has been compromised.

    Consider your comms wisely

  • Threat Matrix 2024

    05/08/2024 5:48:57 AM PDT · 481 of 531
    Godzilla to Lazamataz

    You’ve noted key red flags for such groups. Add to it newbies pushing for more aggressive actions as well as illegal moves.