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Posts by KiraZ

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  • Russia and Ukraine reach complex deal (obsure mechanisms of gas settlements)

    01/06/2006 10:26:39 AM PST · 20 of 32
    KiraZ to RusIvan

    Through the evening of 13 December the price discussed for Ukraine was $160 per 1,000 cubic meters. That evening Alexander Medvedev, GASPROM's vice president, said that if the contract will be unsigned by 1 January, Russia will turn off supplies to the Ukraine. The next morning, 14 December, Sergey Kupriyanov, GASPROM's spokesman, said that the situation has been changed and the new price is going to be $220-$230. It was the obvious step to kill all negotiations. Why did this happened? Because on 12 December Gerhard Schroeder, the former German's Chancellor accepted the top position in the new concern to build the North European Pipeline and it caused a major public scandal in Germany. On 15 December the Bundestag, the German parliament, scheduled hearings on this issue. Russians attempted to bring negotiations to an end in order to demonstrate the significance of the pipeline project (by pointing to Ukraine's gas-stealing), and justifying Schroeder's involvement. And they succeeded: the scandal around Schroeder calmed down...

    Next, Russians understood that if brought to court or even to public hearings, their accusations of Ukraine stealing gas would be lost. On 4 January, the EU was supposed to discuss the situation of gas supply in Brussels - so at about 6 AM (!) on that date the contract between GAZPROM and UKRNAFTA was signed and announced at 10 AM Moscow time, before beginning of the workday in Central Europe... And here's how Russia tried to save face: they announced that Ukraine will buy Russian gas at $230 per 1,000 cubic meters, but will get it in reality for $95 because Russian gas will be mixed with cheaper Turkmenian gas!

    They probably believe that no one could calculate... Let me share a couple of numbers with you. In 2006 Ukraine will get 40 billion cub.m from Turkmenistan and 16.5 cub.m from Russia. Turkmenia sells its gas to Ukraine at $65 per 1,000 cub.m. This means that Russia sells its gas to Ukraine for $165 to achieve the average price of $95 - this is exactly what was discussed and agreed before 14 December!!! And this is why Ukraine has signed this contract plus the transportation cost was increased from $1.09 to $1.60 for 1,000 cub.m on 100 km, so Ukraine agreed to the deal.

  • Germany accused Ukraine of stealing gas

    01/06/2006 10:15:53 AM PST · 7 of 13
    KiraZ to x5452

    The largest Russian portal, YANDEX, has 5 hot headlines on its main page and periodically places links to some offensive information, which is obsolete! For example, around 1 PM on 5 January, they put one link among these five hot headlines, which pointed to a message that RURHGAS, a German gas importer, blamed Ukraine for gas stealing, but it was information with a time stamp 3 January 2006, 9:07 PM !!! Around 2.30 PM on 5 January they placed a link pointing to a similar message stamped 4 January 2006, 11:46 AM…

  • The West's Ukraine illusion

    01/06/2006 10:11:15 AM PST · 18 of 31
    KiraZ to Lukasz

    Through the evening of 13 December the price discussed for Ukraine was $160 per 1,000 cubic meters. That evening Alexander Medvedev, GASPROM’s vice president, said that if the contract will be unsigned by 1 January, Russia will turn off supplies to the Ukraine. The next morning, 14 December, Sergey Kupriyanov, GASPROM’s spokesman, said that the situation has been changed and the new price is going to be $220-$230. It was the obvious step to kill all negotiations. Why did this happened? Because on 12 December Gerhard Schroeder, the former German’s Chancellor accepted the top position in the new concern to build the North European Pipeline and it caused a major public scandal in Germany. On 15 December the Bundestag, the German parliament, scheduled hearings on this issue. Russians attempted to bring negotiations to an end in order to demonstrate the significance of the pipeline project (by pointing to Ukraine’s gas-stealing), and justifying Schroeder’s involvement. And they succeeded: the scandal around Schroeder calmed down…

    Next, Russians understood that if brought to court or even to public hearings, their accusations of Ukraine stealing gas would be lost. On 4 January, the EU was supposed to discuss the situation of gas supply in Brussels - so at about 6 AM (!) on that date the contract between GAZPROM and UKRNAFTA was signed and announced at 10 AM Moscow time, before beginning of the workday in Central Europe… And here’s how Russia tried to save face: they announced that Ukraine will buy Russian gas at $230 per 1,000 cubic meters, but will get it in reality for $95 because Russian gas will be mixed with cheaper Turkmenian gas!

    They probably believe that no one could calculate… Let me share a couple of numbers with you. In 2006 Ukraine will get 40 billion cub.m from Turkmenistan and 16.5 cub.m from Russia. Turkmenia sells its gas to Ukraine at $65 per 1,000 cub.m. This means that Russia sells its gas to Ukraine for $165 to achieve the average price of $95 - this is exactly what was discussed and agreed before 14 December!!! And this is why Ukraine has signed this contract plus the transportation cost was increased from $1.09 to $1.60 for 1,000 cub.m on 100 km, so Ukraine agreed to the deal.

    See rest of comment at www.kirazalan.net

  • Putin's Mafia Politics

    01/04/2006 5:57:02 PM PST · 35 of 45
    KiraZ

    Many are labeling Russia’s pressure on Ukraine to pay market prices for natural gas as “Cold War” tactics. Of course, the Ukrainian government is paying the full price for their anti-Russian rhetoric and pro-Western orientation. Russia is flexing the only muscles she has: natural resources. But, it’s not so much a message to the Ukraine as to the West. And it’s not so much “Cold War” as Realist geo-politics... www.kirazalan.net

  • The Rollback of Democracy In Vladimir Putin's Russia

    06/09/2005 6:37:57 AM PDT · 1 of 4
    KiraZ
    Read this article at Washington Post. Looks like a great book with unprecedented comments from inside sources
  • Western Naivete in the Case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky

    06/08/2005 2:39:24 PM PDT · 35 of 42
    KiraZ to K. Smirnov

    "And if you read our papers or websites, you will see a lot of clamouring."

    On television - there were video shots of people responding to the pro-Khodorkovsky demonstrators. I guess we'd call them the anti-pro-Khodorkovsky crowd. It was very telling: An old woman had leaned her picket sign (which read something like "vor dolzhen platit'") against the wall of a building and was sitting on the ground reading her book. A sign of a spontaneous, clamouring, passionate protestor? I realize that she's not spokesperson for an average Russian citizen - but please consider that demonstrations are often organized and opinions are often shaped.

  • Western Naivete in the Case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky

    06/08/2005 2:29:10 PM PDT · 34 of 42
    KiraZ to Romanov

    I appreciate your comment. Unlike some of the responses posted here, its civilized.

    True, Russians are disgusted with corruption. However, I'm sure you are well aware, the corruption (bribes) permeate through all of society, from train stations to court rooms. Therefore, to identify low salaries as a cause or justification for police corruption is to ignore that this is simply carried over from the Soviet past. I call the police pulling someone over and demanding cash for an unnamed violation "a robbery". Apparently, it has never happened to some.

    Anyway, it was explained to me by a Russian police officer rookie that arriving on the force, he learned very quickly that there is a pool of the money collected, and divvied up at the end of the day. If you don't contribute your share to the pool, there are consequences.

    Point being: Russians are pissed about the corruption, of course. It may even currently be on Putin's agenda (and thus in newspapers). But what is being done about it? That is the fundamental difference between Russia and America. Russians are the most cynical people in the world, and they don't act. Perhaps they haven't learned how to be political (push for accountability.) Perhaps there aren't channels to do so (but then lets not confuse Russia with a democracy.) Perhaps its not really on Putin's agenda to clean up corruption (except that which can be profitable).

    As he has demonstrated - he can face off with the mightiest/evilest of "oligarchs"... if only he could name some people on the police force who will henceforth be held accountable for their men's conduct... that is just the most obvious start.

    PS - The police officer rookie is a not-so-distant relative of Putin's, and well educated. He very well recognized that he was going into a profitable career.

  • Western Naivete in the Case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky

    06/07/2005 3:09:21 PM PDT · 12 of 42
    KiraZ to KiraZ

    I hate the word mass media. I meant media.

  • Western Naivete in the Case of Mikhail Khodorkovsky

    06/07/2005 3:07:52 PM PDT · 11 of 42
    KiraZ to GarySpFc

    The russian people dont clamor to the government about corrupted police that rob hard working people every day, as they get home from work. They don't clamor when their pensions are lowered or when their water is turned off. What makes you think they are clamoring for justice in the Khodorkovsky case? In countries where mass media is state-controlled (and there it is), opinion is created, not followed. There are many many others to investigate if justice is what "the russian people" or putin seek.