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Posts by tommymindtrick

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  • Trump within 3 in PA Poll

    10/26/2016 2:32:05 PM PDT · 64 of 64
    tommymindtrick to grayhog

    If you drill down into the demographic details, Trump has 29% of the black vote (Obama had 93% in PA 2012), and 30% of Hispanic (Obama had 80%).

    These are **WTF** type numbers. If sampling was distributed by population OR if these black/Hispanic ratios are in the ballpark of the actual results, Trump wins PA. Combine both of these together, you have a polling error of 10% (like in the Primary PA vote where Trump overperformed polling by 10%).