Donald Trump will probably lose the election. As I write, The Economist says he has only an 8 percent chance of winning. Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight, which came closest to predicting Trump's win in 2016 and has the best track record among modelers, gives Trump just a 12 percent chance. But people who "put money where their mouths are" give Trump a better chance: 37 percent. That's according to roughly that often., the website I created with Maxim Lott. It tracks multiple betting sites around the world. Though 61 to 37 percent seems like a giant lead for Joe Biden, 37...