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Oil climbed after U.S. crude inventories unexpectedly dropped from the highest level in more than eight decades.

Oil prices should fall, possibly hard, in coming weeks. That is because fundamentals do not support the present price. Prices should fall to around $30 once the empty nature of an OPEC-plus-Russia production freeze is understood. A return to the grim reality of over-supply and the weakness of the world economy could push prices well into the $20s. A Production Freeze Will Not Reduce The Supply Surplus An OPEC-plus-Russia production cut would be a great step toward re-establishing oil-market balance. I believe that will happen later in 2016 but is not on the table today.

1) Trump has favorability ratings that make him unelectable: The American public is very familiar with Donald Trump and people hate his guts. Trump's current favorable/unfavorable rating is 34/58. Just as a point of comparison, the two biggest landslides in history were against Jimmy Carter (33/58) and Walter Mondale (34/40). Trump is so unpopular with the general electorate that we might as well be running Jared Fogle or Bill Cosby.2) Trump consistently loses to Hillary Clinton in head-to-head polls: Given that so many people know Trump and already dislike him, it's hard to understand why anyone thinks he'll win in...

With the end of the 54-year U.S. trade embargo on Cuba, and Cuban government moves to encourage foreign investors, Cuba is a suddenly attractive venue that is sitting on an estimated 4.6 billion barrels of oil and promising tantalizingly low production costs that defy low oil prices. In December 2014, the U.S. lifted the trade embargo, and earlier that year—banking on an end to the embargo—Cuba began to lay the foundation for attracting foreign investment by offering corporate tax credits. It sounds great—but there has been no rush onto this playing field.

American drivers are now enjoying gasoline prices that haven't been this low since January 2009. Data from the AAA shows that the average annual price for a gallon of gas has been below $2 a gallon for about a month now. Just within the past week, the national average gas price ticked below $1.80 for a gallon of regular gas, a drop of 20 cents just since the beginning of 2016. "I think you have probably another three to four weeks of prices in this area - I think we could drop another nickel or so," said Denton Cinquegrana, chief...

America is wasting little time getting back into the oil exporting business. Just weeks after Congress lifted a 40-year ban on exporting oil, the first shipments of the black stuff left U.S. ports for Europe. The first freely-traded shipments of U.S. crude are symbolic of the country's newfound role as a leading producer of oil. America's entry into the world market can also be viewed with relief by those worried about potential supply disruptions. After all, many big oil producers are located in volatile parts of the world susceptible to geopolitical shocks. "The fact that producers have free access to...

So what would happen if a modern-day president took the Eisenhower model and, ceased crude imports. The price shock to the energy markets could take domestic crude to $140 before it broke the back of our World Crude Oil Cartel.

Oil prices surged on Thursday and Friday, staging a 14 percent rally to push oil back above $31 per barrel. A combination of factors worked together to stop the bleeding for WTI and Brent. Hopes rose for fresh monetary stimulus from the European Central Bank on Thursday when its President Mario Draghi hinted that more action could be forthcoming. Also, Japan’s central bank could also engage in QE-style asset purchasing to boost the economy. At the same time, a monster snow storm hitting the east coast of the U.S. brought speculation that colder weather could boost demand.

The oil markets are on edge with oil sinking into the $20s per barrel. And last week we reported on one place where oil is already trading in the single-digits. Canada’s bitumen is selling for just $8 per barrel. But even that rock bottom price is higher than what one oil seller earned for a shipment recently. In a bizarre turn of events, Bloomberg reported that Flint Hill Resources, a refining unit owned by the Koch brothers, said that they would purchase sour crude from North Dakota for $-0.50 per barrel. That’s right: a negative price. Oil has become so...

The Koch brothers are actually charging $0.50/bbl to take low grade oil at their Flint Hills Resources refining arm./ North Dakota Sour is a high-sulfur grade of crude and "is a small portion of the state's production, with less than 15,000 barrels a day coming out of the ground," Bloomberg notes, citing John Auers, executive vice president at Turner Mason & Co. in Dallas.

BENGHAZI, Libya, Jan 6 (Reuters) – Fires caused by clashes between Islamic State militants and guards near Libya's biggest oil ports have spread to four oil storage tanks that were still burning on Wednesday, a guards spokesman said. Ali al-Hassi said the Petroleum Facilities Guards were in control of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf ports, but that skirmishes continued. At least nine guards were killed and more than 40 injured in fighting around the perimeter of the area on Monday and Tuesday. Hassi said guards had recovered bodies of 30 Islamic State fighters, and had also captured two military tanks...

Professional Pandering -- Desperate Cruz, Dependent on Iowa, Flip-Flops on Ethanol Subsidies... Posted on January 6, 2016 by sundance In what can only be noted as "typically Cruzian" the Senator who sponsored the "Renewable Fuel Standard Repeal Act", which would have immediately repealed the ethanol mandate, has now reversed course and claims to support continued Iowa Corn Subsidies. The pandering flip-flop becomes "brutally Cruzian" when the campaign for Ted Cruz denies the current change in position by pointing to a prior change in position; saying, in effect: when Senator Ted Cruz decided to run for President he changed his position,...

SIOUX CENTER - During a bus tour stop in Sioux Center, Iowa last night, Senator Ted Cruz expressed support for the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) through 2022. Responding to a question from an ethanol investor from Iowa about whether he would allow the landmark energy program to continue through its current expiration in 2022, Sen. Cruz responded by expressing support for the RFS through 2022. Senator Cruz also expressed passionate support for breaking through the so-called "blendwall." That "blendwall" makes it illegal for ethanol to expand its market penetration, and I intend to eliminate the EPA blendwall to get rid...

Armchair analysts have been predicting an oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Iran for a while now, and escalating tensions between the countries would seem to portend a major market disruption. But that war may never come. Saudi Arabia announced Monday that it will sever all commercial ties with Iran, a day after the kingdom said it would cut diplomatic relations with Iran. Protesters stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran earlier Sunday, and the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, predicted "divine vengeance" for the Saudi execution of a major Shiite cleric. Saudi Arabia is predominantly Sunni and home...

Since last summer, Bob Dudley, the CEO of the British oil giant BP, has been cautioning that he expects oil prices to stay “lower for longer.” Now he believes he’s determined how much longer those prices may decline, and when they may start rising again. “A low point could be in the first quarter [of 2016],” Dudley said in an interview broadcast Saturday by the BBC. “But 2016’s third and fourth quarters could witness a more natural balance between supply and demand, after which stock levels could start to wear off.”

Iran's energy industry is plagued by a host of challenges--from leaking pipelines to skeptical western oil investors--as it attempts to throttle up crude output next year when western sanctions are expected to be lifted. Iran's aging infrastructure is in disrepair after several years without the expertise of the world's largest oil companies, western and Iranian officials say. The country is likely to be selling as much as 500,000 new barrels of oil into an already saturated market for crude exports, setting up logistical hurdles. And the Islamic Republic is more divided politically over the return of western companies than expected,...

Over the course of the last four or so weeks, the media has paid quite a bit of attention to Islamic State’s lucrative trade in "stolen" crude. On November 16, in a highly publicized effort, US warplanes destroyed 116 ISIS oil trucks in Syria. 45 minutes prior, leaflets were dropped advising drivers (who Washington is absolutely sure are not ISIS members themselves) to "get out of [their] trucks and run away." The peculiar thing about the US strikes is that it took The Pentagon nearly 14 months to figure out that the most effective way to cripple Islamic State’s oil...

"The world is floating in oil. The numbers we are facing now are dreadful," said David Hufton from PVM Group The world is running out of storage facilities for surging supplies of oil and may soon exhaust tanker space offshore, raising the chances of a violent plunge in crude prices over coming weeks, experts have warned. Goldman Sachs told clients that the increasing glut of oil on the global market has combined with mild weather from a freak El Nino this winter. The twin-effect could send prices plummeting to $20 a barrel, the so-called 'cash cost' that forces drillers to...

When President Obama announced he was killing the Keystone XL pipeline, he said he was agreeing with the State Department’s assessment that the pipeline from Canada “would not serve the national interests of the United States.” The fact is that it would not have benefitted the personal financial interests of friend and economic mentor, Warren Buffett, who can rest assured that oil from Canada and the nearby Bakken formation in North Dakota will continue to be transported by a railroad he owns. As Investor’s Business Daily noted in a 2011 editorial: Killing the Keystone XL pipeline may help one of...

The host of the Jacki Daily show has had an impressive career in energy, law, and politics. Most recently, Jacki served as General Counsel to an engineering firm specializing in energy, national security and environmental cleanup. Previously, she served many years as legal counsel on Capitol Hill to the Chairman of the Subcommittee on the Constitution and the former Ranking Member of the Commercial and Administrative Law Subcommittee, advising on the oversight of federal agencies. Prior to her career in Washington, she worked as a corporate litigator, and as an Assistant Vice President for a national bank. She entered...