Three years ago, when it appeared that nothing could get worse at Disney -- fleeing executives, share-price collapse (and this was during the boom), dismal results at ABC, and a CEO involved in a bitter, costly, and very public lawsuit with a former subordinate -- I wrote that "Michael Eisner's extraordinary reign" at Disney was "coming to an end." Two weeks ago, some media bigs I know were out for a little retreat at Herb Allen's place in Sun Valley and, over drinks, put together a friendly pool about whether Michael would last the year. When I dismissed Eisner, I...