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New York Gov. David Paterson, a Democrat, is conceding that Republicans "probably" have won control of the New York state Senate, which GOP leaders say has important implications for the long-term balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. No official winner has been named in three senate races in the Empire State. Republicans lead in two of those outstanding contests. New York Republicans, including the current minority leader, Sen. Dean G. Skelos, have said they expect to take over the Legislative gavel in the next session. According to a Friday report in the New York Post, Paterson told...

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Murphy: GOP using 'Florida-style' tactics By: PETER HALL Bucks County Courier Times The Congressman charged Republicans with using unfair tactics to give their candidate for the 8th Congressional District an edge. Congressman Patrick Murphy blasted Bucks County Republicans for using "Florida-style" tactics to deny voters the right to participate in Tuesday's election, which includes the hotly contested race between Murphy and his Republican challenger Mike Fitzpatrick. Murphy's statement in a brief news conference Wednesday afternoon came shortly before Democratic Party lawyers filed a response to Republican claims that Murphy's campaign is behind an effort to mislead voters into applying for...

The Crystal Ball’s Final Calls Larry J. Sabato, Director, U.Va. Center for Politics October 28th, 2010 The time has finally come in this two-year election cycle to make the final calls. Thanks to everyone who has helped us by providing background info, tips, private polls, observations, and constructive criticism. We operate on the proverbial shoestring and we’re outside the Beltway (a plus and a minus), so we can always use the assistance. Our tradition is that we make a prediction in every contest. We’ve been studying these states, districts, and candidates for many years, and we feel entitled! We’re proud...

Residents cry foul over ballots By: PETER HALL Bucks County Courier Times A petition was filed with the Board of Elections over absentee ballots. A trio of Bucks County residents backed by the county Republican committee say they have evidence linking Democratic Congressman Patrick Murphy's campaign to a scheme to flood the county voter registration office with fraudulent applications for absentee ballots. In a petition filed Tuesday, county Republicans say the name of Murphy's campaign manager appeared on a Bristol post office box where voters were urged in a series of letters paid for by the state Democratic Committee to...

House Race Changes Isaac Wood, House Race Editor October 14th, 2010 Polling, independent expenditures, and the general intensification of campaigns across the country provide us with new clues about the November outcome that is in store. Our overall view of the Republican wave remains the same, at a GOP net pick-up of 47 seats, but we now know more about which seats are truly endangered and where each side was just tilting at windmills. This week, we make 26 changes to our House ratings. Among our changes this week, there is a lone bright spot for Democrats. In OH-13, incumbent...

House Projection for October 11 October marches on, and so does the House generic ballot polling. Last week Republicans were on the rebound and this week every single generic is showing Republicans back on top, as has not been the case lately. So let’s see what the damage is. As usual, to run my projection I take the recent generic ballot polls from Real Clear Politics, subtract out the undecideds and third party votes to get a pure two party vote, then compare that with the two party vote of 2008. From there, I take a weighted average of the...

Statement on Congressman John Adler Planting a Fraud Tea Party Candidate in NJ-3 Race Friday, October 8th, 2010 The following was issued today to members of the press… Jon Runyan Statement on Congressman John Adler Planting a Fraud Tea Party Candidate in NJ-3 Race Mount Laurel, October 8, 2010 – The following is a statement from Republican congressional candidate Jon Runyan (NJ-3) that was delivered at his 2:00pm press conference. “Ever since our campaign established links between Congressman John Adler and the fraudulent candidacy of Peter DeStefano, I knew there was a possibility that something much more sinister was going...

Earlier this morning Doug Hoffman announced he was dropping out of the race and is supporting my candidacy for Congress to take back the 23rd. I am deeply appreciative of Doug’s support. Now, more than ever, Republicans, Conservatives and independents are united in our efforts to defeat Bill Owens in November. Thank you for all your support. Please read a copy of the article that appeared in this morning’s Adirondack Daily Enterprise. Hoffman out of Congress race SARANAC LAKE — Doug Hoffman has dropped out of the race to represent New York’s 23rd Congressional District. Hoffman’s name will still appear...

House Ratings Changes Isaac Wood, House Race Editor September 30th, 2010 As Election Day nears, more of the House election picture comes into focus. While our overall view of the level of Republican gains remains unchanged at +47 seats, we are changing the ratings of many key races as the list of endangered seats, and their relative degrees of vulnerability, becomes clear. This week we are changing the ratings of 21 House races, all in the direction of the GOP, including 10 seats formerly listed as Toss-Ups that are now leaning into the Republican column. Toss-Up to Leans Republican (10...

Congress is deadlocked over virtually every major issue still pending this year, including key economic matters such as a detailed federal spending plan and extending Bush-era tax cuts, yet lawmakers still hope to leave Washington by Friday and not return until mid-November. Chances are they'll approve a stopgap budget to keep the government running, maybe vote on extending the Bush administration tax cuts and call it a day. This desire to punt on the day's biggest issue could be one more reason for voters to turn against incumbents of both parties in November.

CQ POLITICS NEWS Sept. 20, 2010 – 11:24 p.m. True Size of GOP Wave Still Developing By CQ-Roll Call Staff With the primary period concluded and independent expenditure spending now fully under way, party strategists face the difficult task of figuring out which races to fund, which incumbents to cut lose and how much debt to incur to try to secure a majority in the House. It also means that it is time for CQ Politics to do a sweeping assessment of the current House playing field and update our race ratings to reflect a battleground that is still tilted...

Sean Duffy has won the Republican nomination in the 7th Congressional District of northern Wisconsin, and will face state Sen. Julie Lassa. The winner will succeed Rep. David Obey (D-Wis.). [...] Duffy, a former Ashland County district attorney, beat Daniel Mielke for the Republican nomination... (More)

Sarah Palin’s candidate in the Republican primary on Staten Island, Michael Grimm, beat his challenger, Michael Allegretti, according to New York 1 News and the Daily News. Grimm, who was also backed by Rudy Giuliani, was a former FBI agent and Marine veteran. He was criticized for raising a lot of money outside the district, and not having lived there as long as Allegretti, whose family ran a local business on the Brooklyn side of the district. [...] Grimm will take on freshman Rep. Michael McMahon, a moderate Democrat who has the backing of the Conservative Party and who voted...

William (B.J.) Lawson, MD, Republican challenger to Rep. David Price in North Carolina's Fourth District, announces a turning point in his campaign as a recent poll shows that 46.5 percent of likely voters would elect him, as opposed to 46.1 percent who would vote to re-elect 22-year incumbent Rep. Price. "This proves that voters know that Washington insiders aren't serving their best interests, especially not one who votes with Nancy Pelosi more than any other congressman," said Dr. Lawson. "Nearly half of these respondents are Democratic voters, so regardless of political affiliation, Americans know you can't spend yourself out of...

NRA chooses Edwards in Texas By: Kasie Hunt August 9, 2010 06:57 PM EDT Texas Rep. Chet Edwards is the latest endangered Democrat to win a critical conservative credential: an endorsement from the National Rifle Association. Edwards’s campaign announced he had received the pro-gun rights organization’s backing on Monday. "I cannot imagine any candidate in our district who would not want the endorsement of the NRA Victory Fund, which is by far the largest gun rights organization in the country,” Edwards spokesman Megan Jacobs said in a statement. Edwards is facing self-funded businessman Bill Flores, who has attacked him for...

NRCC Says Space In Trouble; Internal Poll Numbers Questioned By Steve Peoples | August 9, 2010 6:26 PM Rep. Zack Space (D) is "in an extremely vulnerable position" in Ohio's 18th district, according to internal polling released this afternoon by the National Republican Campaign Committee. The survey conducted by the Republican pollster On Message, Inc., shows Space in a statistical dead heat with his challenger, state Sen. Bob Gibbs. Each candidate earned the support of 43 percent of 400 voters polled from the 18th district Aug. 3 and 4. "Bob Gibbs is generating momentum across eastern Ohio. I think this...

Benishek Up As Counties Continue to Certify Primary Results By Tricia Miller | August 9, 2010 6:46 PM Surgeon Dan Benishek leads state Sen. Jason Allen in the county-level canvassing process sorting out last week's tight Republican primary results in Michigan's 1st district. With 16 of 31 counties certifying their results, Benishek is ahead by 18 votes, according to his campaign. After the initial unofficial vote count, Benishek was just one vote ahead of Allen in the northern Michigan district currently represented by retiring Rep. Bart Stupak (D). The count: 27,091 to 27,090. Once the counties certify the results, the...

CQ POLITICS NEWS Aug. 8, 2010 – 10:35 p.m. Rothenberg’s Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats By Stuart Rothenberg, Roll Call Contributing Writer Competitive open seats usually follow the direction of the overall cycle, so with House Republicans poised for large gains, it should be no surprise that most of the open seats that flip will be headed their way. The districts at the top of the list are more likely to flip, with at least the first half-dozen looking like no-brainers. Tennessee’s 6th. Democratic Rep. Bart Gordon ’s retirement hands this seat to state Sen. Diane Black, who won Thursday’s...