My atheist predictions:
The USA will come to be dominated politically by Mormons and Latin Catholics. Both groups tend toward entrepreneurship, pro-life & other standard conservative stances.
Europeans, generally, are going to run *back* into the waiting arms of Christiandom when they find what’s lacking in cultural relativism, esp. that which allows crap like Sharia courts. Were the Caliphate ever to become a reality across the Mediterranean DMZ, Europe might even find a way to desecularize quickly.
Asia will be forced to likewise retrench in its Buddhist tradition, along with Chinese Confucianism, in response to the broadening cultural conflict with Islam.
All societies go through cycles of secularization, etc. With each cycle the back pews move a bit more to the middle rows and the bulk of the layity moderates somewhat. The two most humanist religions - Christianity and Buddhism - will be most able to coexist a more secularized polity.
Islam and Hinduism, however, will have a harder time with secularization b/c each religion holds onto some atavistic doctrines that haven’t been supplanted by more humanist canons. The civil war within Islam will continue so long as Islamists insist on compulsory belief which will breed more apostates than it would otherwise were Islam to secularize itself. Hindu fundies will try to obstruct the conversion of the Dalits (and other higher-cast Hindus) to Buddhism, but they’ll have far less success than Muslim fundies in limiting conversions to other faiths. The civil wars in Sri Lanka and Burma may play into this, perhaps Bangladesh if she continues to be beggared by her non-Muslim neighbors.
Increased population throughout Asia, Asia Minor and Africa will particularly intensify renewed interest in religion b/c of increased intercultural frictions. It’ll be up to the more-secular moderates in all societies to try to stem the worst aspects of the trend.
Interesting. Demographics alone would certainly account for a rapid increase in the Latin Catholic numbers — 25% of the US population by 2050, by recent accounts — but I really don’t see Mormonism having the same amount of success. It’s still treated as a cult by many Christians and non-believers alike, and try as they might, the more, er, quirky aspects of their religion will probably be a barrier to wholesale conversion.
The idea of a European Caliphate is a non-starter. The demographics do not support it (birth rate + immigration patterns), and no matter how tolerant European nations may be towards other faiths today, they will not allow Muslims to establish extreme policies such as Sharia Law within their boundaries. I do see a lot of hysteria on these boards about this, but a Muslim take-over of Europe is just not going to happen from the inside.
So, while there may be the odd uptick in Christian worship in parts of Europe, the overall trend will be downwards for the foreseeable future.
I agree that Islam is the most entrenched religion. I liken the position of Islam to where Christianity was 600 - 800 years ago. It will be many decades, perhaps even a century or two, before the Muslim world sees the back of the powerful extremists who demand adherence to fundamentalist beliefs and practices.
I’m not sure sure about Hindus though. I can’t say I know much about their faith, but one has to remember that India has been a secular democracy for over 50 years despite the heavy pressures of religion. Quite a remarkable achievement given the turmoil in the country, and it might well stick as they see the benefits of new technology and business piling into the country.
As for China, well, as with Russia and Eastern Europe, imposed atheism is not a viable prospect in the long term. It would be only natural for people to turn to religion once it is no longer forbidden (and, in fact, many of them are likely to have never abandoned their beliefs in the first place).