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Dave’s Top 10 Reasons the Recession Will Last Forever
Inner Workings ^ | David Goldman

Posted on 08/08/2009 9:59:12 PM PDT by Pride_of_the_Bluegrass

10. No innovation. As Nobel Prize Laureate Edmund Phelps told Bloomberg News Aug. 2, “I’m not convinced that there’s going to be another wave of innovation in the offing.”

9. Speaking of innovation, the US is not getting the clever immigrants it used to. Remember that almost half of Silicon Valley during the tech bubble peak was Asian.

8. China will hold its own but its economy is too small to act as a locomotive for the rest of the world (maybe for Korea).

7. The US only can finance its nearly $2 trillion annual borrowing requirement if banks and households buy Treasury securities rather than riskier corporate securities or mortgages. If the rest of the economy starts competing with the Treasury for capital, interest rates rates will rise immediately and suppress economic activity.

(Excerpt) Read more at blog.atimes.net ...


TOPICS:
KEYWORDS: bailout; blogpimp; economy; obama; recession
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To: Pride_of_the_Bluegrass

“5. The US consumer can’t get out of a hole. The bloggers have been all over the personal income data for June, which shows that household finances continue to deteriorate. I don’t need to reiterate what others have documented; see for example”

The savings rate has zoomed and credit card balances have declined. Consumers have money. The question is how to get them to start spending again.


21 posted on 08/08/2009 10:35:08 PM PDT by ColdWater
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To: Pride_of_the_Bluegrass

“. Barack Obama!”

I have to agree with that!


22 posted on 08/08/2009 10:35:51 PM PDT by ColdWater
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To: ColdWater
"The question is how to get them to start spending again."

For me, it will be when we no longer have Communists in Washington. Until then, I'm STARVING THE BEAST.
23 posted on 08/08/2009 10:36:58 PM PDT by Windcatcher (Obama is a COMMUNIST and the MSM is his armband-wearing propaganda arm.)
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To: ButThreeLeftsDo

No they didn’t tell me to excerpt it. I don’t know how to get the whole thing up any other way. You can tell me how to and I will. I also don’t know how to do the post an image thing either. If you can point me to the tutorial I would appreciate it.


24 posted on 08/08/2009 10:39:44 PM PDT by Pride_of_the_Bluegrass
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To: ColdWater
Yes, but the economic recovery after the dotcom bubble was propelled by the rise in real estate and second mortgages. It was not based on the production of real value. I don't even think the dotcommers were really producing value, since computer programs are composed of information that can be easily pirated anywhere; unlike autos, machinery, bottles of liquor, refrigerators, etc.
25 posted on 08/08/2009 10:43:30 PM PDT by attiladhun2 (Obama is the anti-Reagan, he believes government is the solution, rather than the problem)
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To: Pride_of_the_Bluegrass

Post the whole article.

Don’t click on the ‘excerpt’ box.

Pretty simple.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1011945/posts


26 posted on 08/08/2009 10:45:50 PM PDT by ButThreeLeftsDo (FR...Monthly Donors Wanted...I Upped My Monthly. Now, Up Yours.)
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To: attiladhun2

well they weren’t exactly propelled by the rise in real estate per se. They were propelled by the drop in interest rates and lending practices that fed the real estate market and made the building costs of commercial real estate so cheap that even churches were building strip malls to add value to their portfolios.


27 posted on 08/08/2009 10:46:50 PM PDT by Pride_of_the_Bluegrass
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To: ColdWater
I believe that was Sarkozy (not sure of my spelling), president of France.
28 posted on 08/08/2009 10:46:50 PM PDT by attiladhun2 (Obama is the anti-Reagan, he believes government is the solution, rather than the problem)
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To: attiladhun2

well they weren’t exactly propelled by the rise in real estate per se. They were propelled by the drop in interest rates and lending practices that fed the real estate market and made the building costs of commercial real estate so cheap that even churches were building strip malls to add value to their portfolios.


29 posted on 08/08/2009 10:46:54 PM PDT by Pride_of_the_Bluegrass
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To: attiladhun2
Yes, but the economic recovery after the dotcom bubble was propelled by the rise in real estate and second mortgages. It was not based on the production of real value. I don't even think the dotcommers were really producing value, since computer programs are composed of information that can be easily pirated anywhere; unlike autos, machinery, bottles of liquor, refrigerators, etc.

The inovation was the internet. The dot.com boom was based on the internet and companies that supplied related goods and supplies. Lots of hype and speculation but if you don't believe the dot.com'ers produced anything of value, please unplug your computer from the internet.

30 posted on 08/08/2009 10:47:45 PM PDT by ColdWater
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To: Sherman Logan

...and the data center that will be the core of it will be located in..... India!


31 posted on 08/08/2009 10:52:09 PM PDT by dr_who
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I forgot to add that the infusion of megabucks over the 2k worries helped fuel the bubble.


32 posted on 08/08/2009 10:52:23 PM PDT by ColdWater
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To: ColdWater

Yes, but if you look at a site like facebook. It has 300 million accounts and it can’t make money on it’s customers. They are burning faster than they can reap cash. The fp board probably breaks even or not much better on it’s investment. It’s not that you can measure value in dollars, it’s just that the bank wants dollars back in return.


33 posted on 08/08/2009 10:53:38 PM PDT by Pride_of_the_Bluegrass
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To: Pride_of_the_Bluegrass

Whatever it was propelled by is not important. What I am saying is this country either no longer has industries or is weak in those industries that take raw materials and convert them into valuble goods. Instead, we became obsessed with giving everyone college degrees, when the only jobs available are flipping burgers cleaning toilets. That’s good for MacDonalds and the diploma mills, but a lousy trade-off for the nation as a whole.


34 posted on 08/08/2009 10:57:05 PM PDT by attiladhun2 (Obama is the anti-Reagan, he believes government is the solution, rather than the problem)
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To: Sherman Logan
Innovation is by definition unpredictable. The odds are the Google of 2015 is being cooked up over someone's dining room table right now.

We are still pushing too much paper. Two areas (perhaps related) that I expect to see are virtual meetings and paperless work places. Both require large screens with new human-friendly interfaces. We still have a phone and a PC on our desks and they are not inter-connected. But the one inovation I would like to see but won't is an improved SAP interface!

35 posted on 08/08/2009 10:58:00 PM PDT by ColdWater
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To: ColdWater

The net is wonderful, but its not employing legions of people like the factories we used to have that produced real goods for internal consumption and export.


36 posted on 08/08/2009 11:03:28 PM PDT by attiladhun2 (Obama is the anti-Reagan, he believes government is the solution, rather than the problem)
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To: Pride_of_the_Bluegrass
Yes, but if you look at a site like facebook. It has 300 million accounts and it can’t make money on it’s customers.

$265 million a year is real money.

They are burning faster than they can reap cash.

They are burning about $100 million a year in excess of revenue. If they get their model fixed soon, they will be rolling in cash. If not, they may be toast. However, there are some big boys in the industry trying to help them get the model right.

37 posted on 08/08/2009 11:13:35 PM PDT by ColdWater
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To: ColdWater

I’ve read that as well, but they are not creating anything new. They are eating the television market which had an established market and the newspaper/magazine which had a great model before “Free” became the new model. Will people pay for content that can not be regulated as well as the models that they replaced? It doesn’t make me want to invest in Google any more than Pet’s.com.


38 posted on 08/08/2009 11:21:05 PM PDT by Pride_of_the_Bluegrass
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To: Pride_of_the_Bluegrass

“10. No innovation. As Nobel Prize Laureate Edmund Phelps told Bloomberg News Aug. 2, “I’m not convinced that there’s going to be another wave of innovation in the offing.”

The Internet is the perfect example of what helped save Clinton’s presidency. Without that new technology it would have not been as good as it was. Certainly nothing he did ever helped.


39 posted on 08/08/2009 11:38:27 PM PDT by Birch Barlow (The nine most terrifying words in English are, I'm from the govt and I'm here to help you.-Reagan)
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To: ColdWater
The savings rate has zoomed and credit card balances have declined. Consumers have money. The question is how to get them to start spending again.

Consumers aren't spending because they instinctively and correctly realize that the communist Democrats and globalist Free Traitor Republicans are pushing the US into a total economic collapse.

Bring production back to the US again, and the jobs that went away along with it.

Tariff the heck out of anything imported that can be made or developed here.

Drill for domestic oil and natural gas. Mine the heck out of every mountain, and fill in the holes with the carcasses of communist Democrats and communist Free Traitors. Reopen or rebuild the steel mills, aluminum plants, sawmills, furniture factories, refineries, etc. Build nuclear power plants like crazy.

Of course to do these things, you would have to declare open season on leftists complaining about industrial pollution, global warming, nuclear waste, along with the elitist GOP twits complaining about protectionism.

40 posted on 08/09/2009 12:55:54 AM PDT by meadsjn
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