I’ll be on the road for the next week plus - here are some things to watch for.
Iran
US Maritime Administration issued a warning that Iran may attack civilian commercial shipping vessels. Shades of the 1980’s.
The Iranian Ambassador to the UN denies Iran has given the ‘green light’ to proxy elements throughout the world. The US has stated that any attack by a proxy would be considered the same as an attack by Iran.
Overall assessment - US and Iran both putting their pieces in place for the next incident. Iran is weakened in many ways due to its efforts in Syria both in material, men and money. Given its strategic importance, the US (I would certainly hope) has maintained close watch over Iranian assets and capabilities to close the gulf. Probably a dozen or more OPLANS taken off the shelf and being updated as you read.
Venezuela
Lots of action when the USCG James was reported by Venezuela as having entered territorial waters. The Venezuelan navy reportedly sent ships to intercept. Later, they stated that it actually was in the contiguous zone of Venezuela. Still international waters, but an area of interest with some rights under maritime law.
Power woes continue to plague the nation as large portions of Caracas go black
N Korea
Discussion of a second NK cargo ship used to illicitly carry coal being seized.
Meanwhile, follow on analysis of the short range missile shot recently reflect even more on the Russian Iskander design. This model is nuclear capable. So far those Kim has stayed back from crossing the red line by launching longer ranged weapons.
Thanks. Stay safe.
New week - same craziness. Back from road travels, now here’s what I’ve been watching
Iran/et al
Things are on a hair trigger, if Iran sneezes wrong its game on.
- Rocket attack on US embassy in Bagdad: Many think it was spurred by Iranian supported rebels. Right after the attack POTUS tweeted that if Iran initiates combat, it will cease to be a nation. Additionally, some think that factions in Iraq’s govt are supporting military action against Iran to get them out of the country.
- Gulf states (Gulf Cooperation council -GCC) are at heightened alert status and more vigorously patrolling/monitoring activity in the gulf and interfacing with the US carrier task force. Most likely because there is evidence that Iranian supported proxies did attack 4 ship last week.
- Britain and other allies have placed their assets and interests on high alert based upon the ‘threat of attack’ intelligence.
- The Trump administration is facing strong internal opinions regarding what further actions to take. Many point to Bolton as the source of wanting an attack on Iran sooner than later. Trump isn’t so convinced, but is convinced enough to have forces in position to counter strike if Iran gets froggy. How the administration moderates this needs watching.
- Israel is facing more rumblings from Iranian backed terror groups in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel struck a probable Iranian rocket/missile facility in Syria a couple of days ago. Iran has threatened to attack Israel if the US launches any military strikes on Iran. Probably not the smartest thing as Israel would have little regret nuking Iran.
- Saudi Arabia has stated it would defend itself against Iran if attacked. The Saudis are a ‘theologically’ opposed to Iranian form of Islam and the suni/shia conflict has been going for centuries.
- Warnings given to airlines with routes in the middle east / Persian gulf region that they may be “misidentified” during current regional tensions.
- The carrier task force (USS Lincoln) and the assault ship USS Kearsarge were last reported training together in northern Arabian Sea. Along with enhanced air support (including 4 x B52s) this give US Central Command a very potent strike/counter strike capability.
- China is bucking US sanctions and buying Iranian oil.
My thoughts. Unless Iran does something VERY overt, they may just keep tensions at a low simmer and operate through their proxies for the moment. If they can cause the US to maintain presence and “threat of attack” story drawn out, they could use it for propaganda purposes (big mean trump/US threating little old us). However, Iran is in some serious hurt in that they’ve spent all billions 0bama gave them and drastically reduced oil revenue on the effort in Syria and support of terrorist supporting proxies. Internal discontent over the policy of the Mullahs is reaching a boiling point again. This means in the long term, Iran is likely to attempt something to break the standoff that is draining them financially as well as militarily (they have/are losing a lot of ‘soldiers’ in Syria).
Venezuela
After the failed over throw attempt, Guaido is trying to negotiate something - clearly weakened. Citizens are facing a gasoline shortage in the country (with one of the largest oil reserves in the world). Right now things in that region are on the back burner.
N Korea
Kim threw his little temper tantrum. Now has to face increased sanctions with his country facing a very severe famine (again). China and Russia sneaking in food and oil, but not in volumes necessary to offset conditions.
US
Place on your radar folks - if AG Barr gets indictments on key Russia Gate deep staters, expect more leftist unrest from the likes of Antifa/BLM. I expect indictments of some of the low hanging fruit (and possibly trials) before the next election. Provided Trump wins second term, then expect the big fish to be fried by Barr. Civil unrest would become explosive - but that level is not until post 2020. Secondly, going after the low fruit gives time for them to squeal for sentencing deals by ratting out higher levels of conspiracy. Thirdly - outright indictments of Hillary / 0bama prior to the election could generate a backlash and fire up democrat leftists more than Trump supporters. indictments of lower levels would generate more Trump support energy while not enough to fire up demonRat base. IMHO.