Why Russia’s Brutal War In Ukraine Could Sink China

19FortyFive ^ | 3/12/2022 | Gordon Chang

[whyilovetexas111]

“I think it’s a disaster for China,” said J Capital Research’s Anne Stevenson-Yang, referring to Beijing’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Foreign policy elites have for years thought about how to break up the growing China-Russia partnership. Now, they should be cheering the tie-up and hope the two large states get even closer.

Why? Russia is fast diminishing China.

[whyilovetexas111]

It seems clear China is going to bail out Russia. However, how much damage will the CCP want to take on in doing it?

[DesertRhino]

“The big downside for China is that its association with such a bad actor affects its standing with the countries it really needs. “China needs Western trade and has to follow the rules-based order to keep the machinery of economic growth on track,” Andrew Collier of Hong Kong-based Orient Capital Research wrote to me.

Don’t let anyone tell you China isn’t reliant on the American market. Last year, the country’s merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. accounted for 58.6% of its overall surplus. China is risking it’s status with America and Europe”

Well tell me Andrew in Hong Kong, can you walk outside in Hong Kong and call Xi Winnie the Poo? And this childish analysis still thinks it’s the early 90s where they worry about threats from us. We are now the largest debtor nation on earth. Elite Capture means they own McConnell, Pelosi, Giggles Harris, the entire Biden crime family. They are deeply embedded in Academia, throughout the US Govt such as Fauci. They are deeply embedded in finance and almost every industry. They own half the governors in America. Half of Congress has Chinese drivers and advisers. Swalwell, Feinstein, etc.

They laugh at the idea of us cracking down on them. We created this Frankenstein monster, and now it is up and walking.

[Organic Panic]

The author forgets one thing. The Biden clan, and most of Congress, are all owned by China. If China fails it won’t be anything our government did. In fact our government is China’s biggest ally.

[sauropod]

.

[DesertRhino]

Damage? What damage? The energy and resource hungry Chinese have a relationship with resource rich Russia who happens to have the worlds largest and most up to date nuclear arsenal.

[Devils_Tower]

Missing the big disaster. China ends up with Russia’s eastern energy resources.

[ckilmer]

Gordan Chang is flat wrong.

This war works in favor of the Chinese.

The US wanted to do the reverse of what henry kissinger did in 1972 with his china diplomacy—when china was the junior partner with russia.

Now russia is the junior partner with china.

This war could make the russians a wholy own subsidiary of the chinese.

[BiglyCommentary]

“What really matters is that China has destroyed two decades of efforts trying to play with the Big Boys in international organizations,” Stevenson-Yang points out. “Now China will find it harder to raise money, will have to pay more for its bonds, and those efforts to internationalize the renminbi or act as a counterbalance to U.S. power? Say goodbye.”

[PGR88]

The cost of this gigantic misadventure is estimated to be $20 billion a day, and Russia’s economy, according to recent estimates,

I can't believe they repeated this stupid line. $20 billion/day = $7.3 Trillion a year - which is MORE than the USA spent on the entire "war on terror" in about 20 years.

c'mon people.

[Steve_Seattle]

I find it hard to believe that Western nations will come down hard on China over this.

[Steve_Seattle]

You are right - the $20 billion a day figure makes no sense.

[alexander_busek]

“The big downside for China is that its association with such a bad actor affects its standing with the countries it really needs. “China needs Western trade and has to follow the rules-based order to keep the machinery of economic growth on track,” Andrew Collier of Hong Kong-based Orient Capital Research wrote to me.

Don’t let anyone tell you China isn’t reliant on the American market. Last year, the country’s merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. accounted for 58.6% of its overall surplus. China is risking it’s its status with America and Europe”

Is Andrew Collier not a native speaker of English?

Regards,

[DesertRhino]

Energy, Lumber, Minerals, water, etc.

[Textide]

Agree. Putin killed Russia with this invasion. Xi is standing by with a bailout.

[WellyP]

If every country were to buy 15% less products from China for the next 3 years the Chinese’s economy would collapse! China must export so survive and cannot rely on local consumption!

[NorseViking]

None. Chinese export to the US is 20% of their export. Chinese import is 100% vital for the US.

[StAnDeliver]

China would love to 'sell' their SocialAI to notoriously reclusive Russia. The amount of control they would quickly obtain over the lowliest dvornik to Putin himself -- clearly the famed Russian shortsightedness is in play here.

And that's what the CCP will demand for the fast-building debt they are carrying. They payoff is Russia's mind-boggling natural resources.

Don't be surprised when Putin is deposed, pull back the curtain and Xi is the Wizard.

[cgbg]

I have different views on all this stuff.

Try this thought experiment:

Imagine China invades Taiwan tomorrow.

It would be chaos theory in action.

[GOPJ]

In the short term, Beijing, as Steve Gray suggests, reaps big advantages. “China will take advantage of Russia’s pariah status, as it always does,” Stevenson-Yang said in comments to me. “In fact, China loves to take advantage of crises: It’s gotten very chummy with Iran since the 2012 sanctions, it became Iraq’s biggest telecom supplier after the U.S. invasion, and there’s North Korea, in a whole separate class. They’ve already hammered Russia on oil and gas prices, and they will undoubtedly get a good deal on grains and trace minerals.” The reckoning, however, will come soon. As she says, these immediate gains are “all small stuff.”

Somewhere Iva Toguri - also known as Tokyo Rose - is blushing...

[Alas Babylon!]

You have a point, but, I think the author is including all the sanctions and missed selling/buying/trading opportunities with the majority of the world.

No doubt Russia can turn many of the sales over to China but it will take some time and will hurt for awhile.