Posted on 07/06/2022 10:14:50 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
How often do you see scientists scrambling to debunk a piece because it’s *too scary* about COVID rather than not scary enough?
It’s happening on social media today as virologists voice their contempt for this buzzworthy analysis, which cites one preliminary study and some questionable supporting material to make two shocking claims. One: Being infected by Omicron or one of its substrains may confer “no immunity” against future infections, theoretically making reinfection possible every few weeks. Two: It’s possible that each reinfection “depletes T cells and destabilizes immune function,” leading to “cumulative” immune damage — in which case each reinfection could cause increasingly severe illness or other health complications.
The data also shows that each reinfection confers no immunity. A summer infection, for example, will not protect you against a fall infection. But each and every infection will damage your immune system regardless of how mild the symptoms…
There is more bad news. Past infection by older variants dampen rather than strengthen immune protection even among those with three vaccinations. “That previous SARS-CoV-2 infection history can imprint such a profound, negative impact on subsequent protective immunity is an unexpected consequence of COVID-19,” noted the researchers in Science…
So if each COVID infection depletes T cells and destabilizes immune function and the damage is cumulative, then policies that allow the virus to run riot through the population will not only cause immense suffering but erode public health along with trust in government. The word diabolical comes to mind. The British immunologist Danny Altmann compares the situation to “being trapped on a rollercoaster in a horror film.”
Terrifying. But even to a layman like me, it seems unlikely for two reasons. Reason one:
That’s the case count in the U.S. over time. You see a ginormous mega-spike this past winter when the original Omicron arrived and a much less impressive mini-spike right now as BA.4 and BA.5 blaze across the U.S. Those two subvariants are the most contagious and immune-evasive strains of the virus known to man, scientists tell us, so we should be seeing an ultra-mega spike right now — if it’s true that previous Omicron infections confer no immunity.
That’s not what we’re seeing. In fact, the BA.4/BA.5 wave has yet to reach the peak of the Delta wave last summer, although that may be an artifact of less lab testing and more at-home rapid testing among the population in 2022.
Reason two:
That’s the curve of hospitalizations in the U.S. That curve should also be on its way up steeply — if it’s true that successive reinfections are gradually wearing down people’s immune systems, leaving them unable to cope with a virus they would have easily fended off months before. But the increase isn’t steep. And notably, the number of daily patients needing ICU care is flat. If T-cells in people who’ve experienced multiple infections are being “depleted,” shouldn’t the share of ICU patients as a percentage of total hospitalized patients be growing as more reinfections occur among the public?
We can’t draw firm conclusions based on two graphs, but studying those two curves, which would you suspect is more likely? That COVID is getting more dangerous as more people get vaccinated and/or recover from infection, or less dangerous?
The expert to read on this subject is virologist Angela Rasmussen, who went on a tirade today about the logical leaps and dubious science behind the claims made in the piece quoted up top. Rasmussen isn’t alone — at least three other scientists on Twitter have taken a scalpel to the piece, irate at the degree of scaremongering going on. Yes, says Rasmussen, you should absolutely continue to take precautions against SARS-CoV-2, a formidable virus that’s still evolving. But no, there’s no reason to think that infection confers “no immunity” or that you’ll get sicker with each new infection.
And the stuff about T cell depletion is pure garbage, the result of heavy cherry picking and quoting a single person whose assertions have not been borne out in the immunology literature, no matter how many “who will dare dispute me now?” challenges he issues on Twitter.
— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen)
July 6, 2022
I’d point to another study supporting claims of prolonged, clinically meaningful immune deficiency caused by T cell depletion, but there aren’t any.
However, that’s not stopping the “airborne AIDS” crowd, who are finding their every doomsaying wish fulfilled by this article.
pic.twitter.com/e6voAdHt39— Dr. Angela Rasmussen (@angie_rasmussen) July 6, 2022
The idea that reinfections may produce progressively more severe illness is based on a single study, and that study is hotly disputed:
4) “Let’s start with a startling U.S. Veterans Affairs study involving five million people.”
OK so this is the (now infamous) reinfection study.
No mention in the article of:
– This being a preprint, not yet peer reviewed.
– The numerous challenges made around the study.— Omicron Data (@OmicronData) July 5, 2022
This is a clearly biased article, with a clear agenda.
This in itself is fine, within reason. But the data we DO have has been horrifically misrepresented (and in a lot of sections there is pure speculation).
I view this article as unethical.
— Omicron Data (@OmicronData) July 5, 2022
Why are experts so angry? It’s not just the science behind the piece, it’s the fact that it’s being used to justify a strategy that everyone outside of the Chinese government recognizes is impossible: Zero COVID. “Elimination remains the only long-term and bottom-up strategy that makes any sense in terms of risk reduction. It is also imminently doable with adequate testing, masking, tracing, supported sick leave and targeted goals for reducing transmission,” the author of the Tyee article writes. That’s simply not happening. So why not focus on practical risk mitigation instead?
Speaking of which, read this thread about people catching COVID on planes even when they’re wearing quality N95 masks. Aren’t infections on planes supposed to be rare due to how frequently the air in the cabin is exchanged? They are, but it turns out that the air exchange doesn’t start until after the plane takes off. The infections are probably happening while the plane is boarding or sitting on the runway, while the cabin is thick with CO2 — and viruses. Mask up! At least until you’re airborne.
Since the vaccines don’t stop the spread and are only barely effective against the latest variants, if this is true, that the virus is getting worse and worse, why isn’t Congress having a J6 style trial finding the origins of this un-naturally acting disease?
Who is responsible for unleashing this on us?
Unvaxxed wife and I had covid when it was about 50/50 delta/omicron here so we don’t know which one we had. She has it again now but who knows which one. Could be we had Delta before and she has omicron now. Could be we had Omicron 1.0 before and she has BA.4/BA.5 subvariant now.
I guess they’re still looking into whether having had omicron gives you immunity to BA.4/BA.5 subvariants. I’d be curious to know what gives immunity to what but I guess it doesn’t matter because by the time they figure it out, a new one will be going around.
Not worried about it because we know what to take.
Pretty much like the common cold or flu at this point. Ever evolving and people are just going to keep getting new strains every so often. Most will be mild and the only people that it will kill are the very old and/or unhealthy.
Wife works at a nursing home so she’ll probably get them all from now on but we’re separated so at least she won’t be bringing them all to me and the boy.
She’s on a mandatory 5 days off from work because of it. Don’t know how long companies can keep that up. Gonna hurt poor people if they have to take a week or two off every year with no pay.
It’s not going away so I guess the maskers will be masking for the rest of their lives.
Wife gets tested twice a week. Are they going to keep that up forever? Can’t be good having a swab shoved up to your brain every few days.
Crazy.
The problem with this analysis is that BA5 is still too new to have seen a big spike in cases yet. BA4 & BA5 account for a bit over 20% of the cases in the US now and rising. The vaccine and natural immunity do not seem to provide a whole lot of protection from BA5, some but not much. The worst problem is that BA5 causes an infection lower in the lungs similar to the original strain and Delta. Omnichron infected the upper respiratory tract and that was one of the reasons it was not as lethal.
You just have to do what you think is best for you. Wear a decent mask if you believe it will help or not if you think otherwise. Be a decent person and use care around older or compromised people. COVID is going to be here for awhile and unfortunately we are seeing some mutations now that are potentially more dangerous.
In Manhattan it seems like 1 out of 6 still wear masks outdoors although sometimes you can walk a few blocks and see no maskers. Indoors it’s about 50/50 depending on the venue. On the subway, where you are by law required to mask, about 20-25% do not mask.
After Asians, I would say the biggest maskers are black women, and old folks of all ethnicities. I’ve noticed that the white libs tend not to mask in restaurants or offices anymore, but those who do mask use the KN95. All of this was an improvement since March when it seemed like I was the only person walking around without a face diaper.
If COVID will kill you, so will pneumonia or a bad flu. If you are sick with all of the above stay home. The only people who obsess about COVID these days are germaphobes and blue state control freaks who are often the same people.
Most profound statement so far: “K95s are very rarely worn properly and have to be changed frequently.” I’ve seen K95s that look like they have been worn for weeks if not months. Vast majority of the maskaholics have no clue how to properly wear the mask.
I routinely wear P95s and P100s for work and I can assure you they have a limited life and require proper fitting before entering some areas. The K95s out in the real world are a F*CKING JOKE. Virtue signaling at it’s finest.
Actually what kills many people with COVID is the blood clots in the lungs and other parts of the body which is different than pneumonia or a bad flu. Comparing COVID to the flu just let’s the Chinese madmen who created this off the hook. COVID is a lot more sinister but luckily not super lethal so far.
The flu has been going around too. It’s summer, and so far a very hot one. Has anyone heard of the flu going around at this time of year before? I haven’t. In the Midwest here.
Stop testing healthy people and the irrational fear of the Fauci Flu will go away.
Some truth, some hysteria.
Still, according to the author it bodes very BADLY for those who’ve been jabbed AND ultimately get the virus anyway.
I’ll stack my natural immunity against the jabbed any day of the week.
In short we as humans will just have to learn to live with COVID - it’s one of many threats to those who are immunocompromised and will have to be treated as such. It’s sad that we as humans have to coexist with the living evolving organisms known as viruses but it is what it is. :(
“Stop testing healthy people and the irrational fear of the Fauci Flu will go away”
I wonder why everyone runs down to take a highly inaccurate test to show if they have the Wuhan or not? Why waste your time and effort? You are going to be treated, if needed, for whatever symptoms you have regardless of what strain you have. In the past everyone ran down to the doc and got their antibiotics and proudly proclaimed they had Influenza B or whatever.
I just call in sick and stay home till I feel better, just like I have done since I was a kid.
We also have more rationality and wisdom on this forum than one can find in most places on the vast Internet (evidenced by your post), which is what makes FR so valuable, if not essential to maintaining good mental health.
Cheers & continued excellent health to you, CM!
They misspoke - they meant to say "vaccine".
I had it the first time last August. While not bad, I had a low-grade fever and coughing, and it made me very tired. I had it again in February. All I had was a cough. This past week, my daughter and granddaughter tested positive. I have been around them constantly. I have nothing. I even took a test to confirm and it was negative.
did you use the “ihealth covid 19 antigen rapid test” that’s being distributed?...
No. It was one that my daughter picked up, I don’t remember what it was though.
read the box carefully to see where they’re made...
the “ihealth covid19 antigen rapid test” that is being distributed and states “fda emergency use authorization” is made in china...
with today’s technology women can pee on a device to test for pregnancy...
kinda strange people are being required to shove a chinese made product up their noses for these tests...
NH did the mask mandates for a while but had so many exceptions to who had to wear one that you had more people exempt than not.
These days, you are going to see more masks by far in the Upper Valley, where Dartmouth College is located. It’s liberalville up there.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.
