Posted on 01/01/2023 6:02:12 AM PST by Godzilla
Threats surround us on a daily basis. Being able to recognize them and react are essential. This is ongoing commentary of those threats
Economy –
Biden is supposed to be meeting with congressional leaders today to move forward with a plan to raise the debt ceiling. Don’t expect any movement on biden’s side. He will then be gone on an 8 day global tour – so don’t expect much movement.
**
Oil prices rose during early trading on May 15 after a long streak of weekly declines, with the overall market sentiment expected to remain lukewarm because of worries about the state of the U.S. economy.
Brent crude oil prices were trading at $75.42 per barrel on May 15 as of 10:44 a.m. EDT, up from its opening of $74.22. West Texas Intermediate prices were trading at $71.28 per barrel, up from about $70.08. The rise in oil prices follows four consecutive weekly losses before last weekend, which is the longest streak of weekly declines since September 2022. The decline was due to concerns that the United States could slip into a recession as the country edges toward a historic debt default next month.
OBSERVATION – Oil prices will play a big factor as the summer progresses, with some analysts still looking for it to rise to the 90-100 dollar / barrel range due to OPEC cutbacks and anticipated increased demand by China. Throw this on top of an expected ‘official’ recession this summer and, well things could get ugly for the economy.
**
Raphael Bostic, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, highlighted the stickiness of inflation, while saying that he doesn’t anticipate any interest-rate cuts this year and, if anything, “we may have to go up.”
Austan Goolsbee, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, largely echoed that sentiment, although he struck a more dovish tone, saying that much of the impact from the Fed’s series of rapid rate increases is still in the pipeline. He said he’d need to see more data—in particular around tightening credit conditions—before committing to a bias on the future path of interest rates.
OBSERVATION – Realize this – continued rises to the interest rates in the face of a recession will only go to amplify the severity of that recession. Already some economists are re-raising the spectre of a deep to nearly depression level recession. And this is even without the effects of a potential govt shut down from the democrat failure to work out a deficit ceiling agreement.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Monitoring potential violent pushback against illegals, particularly in those bluer areas where the existing govt hand out class now realizes it may lose their priority to these illegal refugees. Will this also result in a dramatic increase in thefts from stores in the areas as well as crime in general.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Special Counsel John Durham on Monday released a 300-plus page report that totally decimated the ‘narrative’ regarding the now demonstratively false “Russian Collusion” charges against Trump. It demonstrates that this narrative was known to be false and that it was approved at the highest levels – 0bama et al – and the FBI/DoJ followed through with the bogus investigation while covering up the much more serious charges against Clinton. I’ll leave it there because to go further will just get my blood pressure up. Our govt is thoroughly corrupted to the point that even a second trump term will have little impact on it. The following is a link to one of many that boil this mongaso down
https://justthenews.com/government/federal-agencies/holdtop-10-takeaways-durham-report
I’m also not getting my hopes up for any criminal actions either. Durham’s report doesn’t include any and who is to believe that the DoJ will essentially prosecute itself given how bought in it was to this whole scam to begin with.
**
Biden’s DOJ has removed the entire IRS team investigating Hunter Biden’s tax fraud case. In doing so the IRS also removed the whistleblower in retaliation obstructing the congressional investigation.
OBSERVATION – The regime apparently is becoming scared and directing its alphabet agencies to become more overt in their illegal actions to cover the crimes of the biden clan.
Illegal Immigration –
Going viral is Security footage taken along the US-Mexico border in Texas showed a US soldier opening a gate to let migrants in just days after Joe Biden let Title 42 expire.
The video, shared by FOX LA’s Bill Melugin, showed a large group crossing from the Mexico side of the border into the U.S. as a large white bus appeared to wait for them.
The one-minute clip showed the female Army officer standing by as the horde shuffled onto private property Monday morning.
She’s said to have done so at the direction of the federal government.
According to the Texas National Guard confirmed the female seen opening the gate in the video was not a Texas soldier or a Texas National Guard member. (1500 active duty have been deployed to the border areas to help facilitate the influx into the country.)
OBSERVATION – SMH – violating her oath to defend this country. There is absolutely no reason to open a locked gate, other than to deliberately allow invaders in and onto waiting busses.
**
Heritage Foundation map of Biden’s illegal alien movements inside the US interior.
In December 2022 Heritage Foundation released a study tracking the movement of illegal aliens from their NGO launching point to destinations across the United States.
According to Heritage, of the 52 congressional districts with the highest density of devices, 71% were Republican congressional districts. Texas had the highest density of illegals followed by Oklahoma.
OBSERVATION – Interesting study. What has to occur is that these illegals some how get the credentials to enable them to vote. That means proof of citizenship. They currently do not possess such credentials. However, a blanket amnesty plan by Biden prior to the 2024 elections could change that in a heart beat, creating over 6 million new ‘democrat’ voters. Hard for me to fathom such a move - my normalcy bias gets in the way. But given all the other actions by the biden regime, plus the rumblings from his minions for such a policy, it cannot be ruled out.
**
Observers are noting that the tsunami hasn’t hit the border yet, though numbers of crossings have been on the increase since the cessation of Title 42. Some associate it with the human traffickers assessing the impact of new rules. The tide won’t be stopped in the long run.
China –
See Japan below.
China also sending more coast guard ships into Philippine waters to challenge sovergnity over areas it declares as its own.
North/South Korea –
Recent satellite photos indicate that NK is preparing to have another big military parade in the near future.
Japan –
A People’s Liberation Army Navy surface action group is continuing its circumnavigation of Japan ahead of the annual G-7 summit later this month in Hiroshima.
The surface action group – which includes cruiser CNS Lhasa (102), destroyer CNS Guiyang (119), frigate CNS Zaozhuang (542) and fleet oiler CNS Taihu (889) – was sighted at midnight on Thursday sailing southwest in an area 56 miles east of Sumisu Island, part of the Izu Island chain that lies south of Japan’s capital of Tokyo. The SAG then sailed west between Sumisu Island and the island of Tori-Shima, according to the Joint Staff Office of Japan’s Ministry of Defense. The group previously transited northeast through the Tsushima Strait on April 30 and northeast through La Pérouse Strait, which separates Hokkaido from Russia’s Sakhalin Island, on May 6. Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer JS Suzunami (DD-114) shadowed the PLAN ships, according to the release.
The movement of the PLAN ships comes ahead of the G-7 summit scheduled for May 19 through 21 in Hiroshima, Japan. Chinese media said the movement was a message to Japan following various remarks by Japan’s leaders about Taiwan.
OBSERVATION – Typical ham handed aggressive actions by China designed to try to intimidate others in the region. However, China has stirred up Japan into accelerating its own military buildup and poses to counter Chinese actions in the region should things get hot.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
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Russian parliament member and former General of the Russian army, Viktor Sobolev, says that any PMC (mercenary company) in Russia is illegal, demanding anyone joining Wagner or any other PMC to face 15 years in prison.
Members of Wagner posted a video in reply, double dog daring Sobolev to try and saying they will return and deal with him later. The Wagner – MoD fight is becoming more open to the Russian people.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Kremlin has reportedly banned high-ranking officials from resigning during the war in Ukraine, likely in an attempt to maintain stability within domestic security organs, government bodies, and the Russian military command.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Kyiv endured one of the largest missile attacks of the war, but Russia was unable to get any missiles past the Ukraine Air Defense. Ukraine reports downing-
- 6x Kh-47M2 Kinzhal (launched from MiG-31K) – the reported “hypersonic” missiles
- 9x 3M54-1 Kalibr
- 3x S-400
- 6x Shahed 131/136
- 3 drones
Russian officials reported that they had blasted the maximum amount of missiles possible for a short period of time.
Russia also claims it targeted a Patriot battery, but reports on the ground deny the claim. NOTE – a lot of propaganda on both sides, taking out Patriot batteries is very high on Russia’s new target list.
Bakhmut pocket, Ukraine forces reportedly made more gains on the northern and southern margins of the pocket. If recent reports hold true, the Russian northern and southern pincers around Bakhmut have essentially collapsed. Wagner continued its assault on western Bakhumt.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Ukraine reportedly destroyed the final Russian group trapped in a pocket south of Ivanivske after it was encircled (South of Bakhmut). If confirmed, the Russian southern pincer is in danger of complete collapse toward the east.
On the northern pincer around Bakhmut, according Prigozhin Wagner mercenaries have taken position along the water reservoirs north of Bakhmut. If true then it means that Wagner was forced to either spend their reserves for that undertaking or to redeploy out of Bakhmut.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Ukraine’s Intel states that at least 152,000 Russian troops occupy the south of Ukraine, namely the Zaporizhzhia & Kherson oblasts.
Explosions reported in Tokmak at a Russian facility (undetermined nature)
Partisan Resistance ——
Representative of occupation authorities in parts of Luhansk region Ihor Kornet was wounded as result of explosion
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
Russia’s resurgent missile/drone attacks continue, but when one looks at the numbers it is clear that the actual numbers overall are way down. This recent attack focused on Kyiv and the success of Kyiv ADA was impressive. Russian has to expend a lot of missiles/drones with the hope that a few will make it through. This only hits their supplies, yielding fewer for future attacks
Action around Bakhmut – in addition to being a Wagner/MoD soap opera – shows signs that Ukraine has the possibility of encircling Wagner forces in the rubble of the city. Deliberate actions by the regular Russian forces to punish Wagner? Interesting concept. However, Russia may soon find it has been sucked into a major trap and loose 9 months worth of effort in a matter of days.
Moldova/Transnistria -
The Republic of Moldova is about to leave the Russian-dominated “Commonwealth of Independent States” (CIS). first step, the withdrawal from the CIS assembly, has already been done. The next step is the formal termination of membership.
The main reason is Russia’s ongoing support of so-called Transnistria, which is currently occupying Moldovan territory in the eastern margin of the country.
Belarus -
Lukashenko appeared in public for the first time since May 9. He visited the Central Command Post of the Air Force and Air Defense Forces. He only stayed there for about an hour. After that, he returned to Astrashytski Haradok (his residence).
Reviewing the news every day, I’ve come to the conclusion that things are continuing to converge towards as very nasty conclusion. I stated those trends last year pointing towards the fall 2022 and the midterm elections as the potential catalyst. Some factors didn’t ramp up like expected – such as BLM/Antifa activity and other political related violence. Now this spring we have the hyper Transtifa effort, we have the exploding illegal situation (having gotten worse from last year), we have every little gun violence incident being blown (and lied about) way out of proportion, generating an increased shrill cry by the left to disarm Americans. The US economy by some is thought to currently be in a soft recession – is threatened by full blown recession following a year of consecutive Fed rate increases and facing more increases. The debt limit may well crash here in the next month – making the economic matters worse. The lawlessness of the govt – brought to the blinding light by the Durham report – and the protection of the biden criminal syndicate going into hyperdrive by the media and DoJ/FBI.
I don’t know just how much pressure the system can take before something triggers the steam explosion.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Researchers say there’s now a 66% chance we will pass the 1.5C global warming threshold between now and 2027. The chances are rising due to emissions from human activities plus the El Niño weather event expected this summer.
Since 2020 the World Meteorological Organization has been giving an estimate of the chances of the world breaking the 1.5C threshold in any one year. Back then they predicted there was less than a 20% chance of breaking 1.5C in the five years ahead. By last year this had increased to 50%, and now it’s jumped to 66%, which the scientists say means it’s “more likely than not.”
OBSERVATION – Global warming has been the bugaboo that the globalists have hung their hats on for decades. The great push to enforce reductions in greenhouse gasses over the past couple years parallels other pushes by globalists in such areas as digital currency, ESG, health ‘mandates’, redistribution of wealth, reductions in agriculture and particularly livestock. As a retired geologist, I recognize that the world has been warming for the last 10,000-14,000 years – all on its own – without any influence by man. This is simply about control and darker still, population reductions.
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New York City will begin tracking the carbon footprint of household food consumption and putting caps on how much red meat can be served in public institutions as part of a sweeping initiative to achieve a 33% reduction in carbon emissions from food by 2030.
The article goes on to state other carbon producing products and activities will also be monitored and audited.
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/nyc-track-food-purchases-meat-cap-carbon-emissions/
OBSERVATION – Such will form the foundation for the eventual digital ID/currency with its recording of an individual’s ESG score. Throw in the oversight of such a system to AI and you quickly develop a classic, futuristic dystopian world between the ‘haves” (global elites) and the “have nots” (the rest of the peons).
Economy –
Biden and top congressional Republican Kevin McCarthy’s U.S. debt ceiling negotiations ended on Tuesday after less than an hour. McCarthy, following the meeting said, “It is possible to get a deal by the end of the week.”
OBSERVATION - Lucy and Charlie Brown come immediately to mind. I hope he isn’t that gullible.
**
Mortgage purchase demand is down a staggering -42.4% since April 2021. Mortgage applications decreased 5.7 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending May 12, 2023.
OBSERVATION – Tied closely to the housing market and as an indicator of economic health, the patent is very sick. People are not buying homes, so fewer new homes are being built and those on the market are caught still in somewhat a bidding war by those desperate to get out from under rent or moving to a state that is not smothering them in woke. The though of impending additional Fed rate increases is not helping the situation and suggests a far deeper recession is possible in the near future.
Biden / Harris watch –
White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on Tuesday walked away when a reporter pressed her on Biden’s reaction to the Durham report.
Biden has reportedly cut his 8 day Asian tour short.
CW2/Domestic violence –
This area has been relatively quiet. Jordan Neely’s death has not gained the traction some in the BLM community desired – because the riders of the subway have spoken out. Additionally, the only one charged with his death, Daniel Penny, has received over 2 million dollars for his defense team.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The USS Gerald Ford CSG is tracking across the eastern Atlantic, most likely headed to the Mediterranean Sea on its first deployment.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Folks, I’ve not covered this topic as extensively in some ways, largely because it has turned into such a dumpster fire. While the republicans may hold some what the moral high ground, the left continues to launch its swarm attacks on the right as well as the American people in general. The sheeple continue to meander on.
Illegal Immigration –
Monitoring, so far the tsunami that has been feared has not developed. However, numbers of illegals continue to swell camps south of the border, so the threat is still there.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Estimated number of Russian dead from the war has gone over 200,000.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 60s - 70s and a drying trend throughout the forecast period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia claims it destroyed a Patriot battery, Ukraine is tight lipped and the US can neither confirm or deny. Most likely debris from a hit missile struck a launcher or other piece of equipment. Patriot batteries are widely scattered in order to prevent what the Russians claim happened – covering an area of multiple square kilometers. The recent attack has caused Ukraine to tighten up and shut down web cameras that apparently could/were used to assist in Russian post attack damage assessment.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Eastern (Kharkiv) front ——
Increased Russian attacks west of Svatove.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Bakhmut pocket, Wagner continues to press the attack, obtaining small gains. Reports of Russian reinforcements on the southern margin of the pocket to stop Ukrainian counterattacks that threaten to encircle Bakhmut from the south.
OUTLOOK –
Expect heavy doses of propaganda, psyops and general confusion as the war transitions to Ukraine and the offensive. I don’t expect the ground component of the offensive to start for another two weeks. In the mean time I expect to see a lot of probing on the ground and Ukraine strategic strikes to shape the battlefield, and the location of those strikes can tip off where the focus of the offensive may be.
Russia’s embrace of the Tar baby that is Bakhmut continues. Ukraine continues to slowly cede the western portions of the city to Wagner elements who essentially level a city block with artillery then follow on with troops. Russian has a tenuous control of the flanks around the city, having in recent weeks given back considerable chunks of the territory to the extent that Wagner forces have become endangered by being surrounded and forcing Russia to commit precious few reserves to stabilize the situation – reportedly using even more scarce VDV forces.
Putin has also apparently become fixated with the US Patriot ADA systems in Ukraine, expending considerably limited missile and drone assets in an attempt to take out units protecting Kyiv. What has become apparent is that these so called ‘hypersonic’ wonderweapons are vulnerable – (these are basically surface launched missiles that have been modified for launch from aircraft and follow a standard ballistic path, though at a higher speed). This fixation is diverting from striking Ukraine preparations for their offensive
I expect Russian to look at more attacks on the Patriot batteries while continuing to nibble away at Bakhmut with increased emphasis on stabilizing the flanks to prevent a counter envelopment of the city.
Weather conditions continue to favor a Ukrainian offensive in the coming weeks, and those weeks will permit Ukraine to apply the British/French cruise missiles to strike critical Russian nodes (command, logistics and personnel) ahead of the kickoff – battle field preparation.
Turkey –
If Erdogan wins the runoff – and chances are good that he will – expectations are that he will pivot to Russian and China and away from NATO and the west.
Thugs and bullies on the left were frightened by Jan 6th- where protesters who didn't do a hundredth of what they did were jailed - for months not just hours...
I'm sure democrat scum are assuring Antifa and BLM they can murder and main without consequences... as usual. But these leftwing loonies are cowards... so thug and bully violence on the left could take a while to recover.
Quit using Word 365 - i refuse to pay an annual/monthly fee for things I don’t want. Years ago I purchased the MS office package - so I owned it outright. Now, everything requires this annual fee. Using the word processor that came with the latest iMac OS -and it is working just fine for me.
Globalism / Great Reset –
G7 summit is kicking off today in Japan. biden has just arrived there.
**
Dutch farmers are preparing for another showdown with Prime Minister Mark Rutte over his World Economic Forum (WEF)-inspired plan to liquidate over 3,000 farms to drastically cut emissions from farming activity and nitrogen fertilizers.
In a video posted online, Mark van den Oever of the Voorzitter Farmers Defence Force blasted the agreement being drafted by the Rutte government and called on farmers to “get ready” for another confrontation.
“We are reading the latest news reports, and we are reading that the agricultural agreement will be sour for everyone. I think it will be particularly sour for the agricultural industry. It is not without a reason that so many parties have already walked away from the negotiating table,” said van den Oever.
“They don’t even dare to make it public as a concept but it is certainly disastrous for the agricultural sector. The government says that if there is no signature from agricultural advocacy organizations, it will be pushed through anyway.”
The European Union has already approved Rutte’s buyout scheme, misleadingly claiming that it was a “voluntary” effort led by the country’s farmers.
https://thecountersignal.com/dutch-farmers-preparing-for-battle-with-wef-agenda/
OBSERVATION - Globalists in the Netherlands continue to try to shove their plan down the throats of the citizens. this next round of protests may get really ugly.
Economy –
The National Truckload Index (NTI), available on SONAR, which measures the average national truckload spot rate, is $1.49 a mile, breaking below the 2019 seasonal equivalent.
While extremely low rates are bad enough on their own, the worse news is that operating costs for trucking companies (not including fuel) are up more than 30 cents a mile in that same period. Operating expenses include maintenance, insurance, driver salaries and equipment.
On a cash flow-adjusted basis, current spot rates are equivalent to $1.19 a mile, without including any increases in the cost of capital to finance operations.
OBSERVATION - The trucking industry has been tossed from one extreme to another. Trucker shortage and supply constrictions of the wuhan era overloaded the system, now demand - evidenced by low spot rates - is causing a reverse effect, all with the overhead of the inflation rate impacts of the past couple years impacting on the bottom line. Similar issues now with rail service. Both can be considered precursors to a recession.
**
Thousands of patients are facing delays in getting treatments for cancer and other life-threatening diseases, with drug shortages in the United States approaching record levels.
Hospitals are scouring shelves for supplies of a drug that reverses lead poisoning and for a sterile fluid needed to stop the heart for bypass surgery. Some antibiotics are still scarce following the winter flu season when doctors and patients frantically chased medicines for ailments like strep throat. Even children’s Tylenol was hard to find.
Hundreds of drugs are on the list of medications in short supply in the United States, as officials grapple with an opaque and sometimes interrupted supply chain, quality and financial issues that are leading to manufacturing shutdowns.
The shortages are so acute that they are commanding the attention of the White House and Congress, which are examining the underlying causes of the faltering generic drug market, which accounts for about 90% of domestic prescriptions. (NYT)
OBSERVATION - The US is still slacking on bringing back to the US key, critical industries such as pharmaceuticals. We are years behind the power and the next major global crisis will only make matters worse.
**
Massive shortages in copper are in the forecast, hitting as soon as 2024/25. China has ramped up its demands while production has been on a downward trend.
Biden / Harris watch –
BIDEN: “I also want to thank my buddy Kamala, who I work for up in the White House...”
Kamala: “They even want to eliminate classes that teach ‘gender ideology.’ So what are we talking about here? Classes that teach women’s history?”
CW2/Domestic violence –
Two agents with the Federal Bureau of Investigation visited the childhood home of a pro-life activist and told the woman’s mother that they wanted to speak with her, according to footage obtained by The Daily Signal.
Elise Ketch is a member of the Progressive Anti-Abortion Uprising, a group of mostly left-leaning activists who believe that abortion is the murder of a human child. PAAU particularly gained prominence after the group exposed the bodies of five premie-sized aborted babies, known as “The Five,” from the clinic of Washington, D.C., abortionist Cesare Santangelo.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2023/05/17/watch-fbi-shows-up-at-childhood-home-of-pro-life-activist/
OBSERVATION - The recent history of the FBI/DoJ towards prolife individuals is very shady as the govt continues to use tactics like this to intimidate to silence or even try to trap the outspoken in their words in order to prosecute them. Double tier justice as they (FBI) is spending little effort to go after pro abort groups like jane’ revenge. The FBI is clearly become the enemy of the American people and become a tool of political reprisals.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Not available any more - Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine doses unavailable nationwide in US and all existing doses reportedly to be destroyed.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Pinning this here under politics. Former championship swimmer-turned-women’s sports advocate Riley Gaines said the Biden administration’s proposed changes to Title IX will take away female athletes’ right to safety and respect.
“We are asking for the bare minimum,” Gaines said on Fox & Friends. “As women, we deserve safety. We deserve privacy. We deserve equal opportunity. And we deserve respect.”
OBSERVATION - Feminism - formerly the star child movement under the left used to attack conservatism over the years is facing a wake up call. All its useful fools have suddenly found themselves displaced by the transtifa agenda and the women’s ‘rights’ of the past are now subordinated to a whole new group of syncopates. Take note that the new brownshirt transtifias will go violent on speakers / meetings that include outspoken women like Gaines - displaying for all who is higher on the pecking order now. Further, feminism is being replaced by the ‘new’ feminism - one where trans women take priority now. True, biological women are being sent to the slaughter house under the new rules.
Illegal Immigration –
More and more “sanctuary cities” crumpling under the influx of illegals. Going overboard to prioritize them over our citizens - actions that are beginning to create friction with the local dependency class.
China –
On Tuesday, China’s Ministry of National Defense spokesman Tan Kefei said that “China is strongly dissatisfied and firmly opposes this [U.S. military assistance package] and has expressed diplomatic discontent against the U.S.” (FO)
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
Economic Impact –
Russia says economy contracted 1.9% in first quarter ‘23
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russia has resumed its missile / drone attacks against Ukraine, with only a very limited success rate. 30 missiles were reportedly launched overnight with Ukrainian ADA reportedly shooting down 29 of 30 . Odessa, Kyiv, Kharkiv and areas in Western Ukraine were targeted.
A U.S. Defense Official has told CNN that a American MIM-104 “Patriot” Air Defense Battery which was deployed in the Ukrainian Capital of Kyiv was damaged but appears to have not been destroyed by a Russian Missile Strike during the barrage last night.
Situation at Bakhmut is still rather dynamic. Wagner continues to eat at the western side of the city, while the Ukraine military continues to reverse months of Russian efforts on the north and south flanks.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast —— Bakhmut pocket, Wagner continues to press the attack, obtaining small gains.
Crimean front ———
Russian Territory –
Oil depot was damaged in Zhecha village of Briansk region with RPG
Partisan Resistance ——
Train derailed after railway was blown up near Simferopol in occupied Crimea
OUTLOOK –
Seems like the lull before the storm. Ground fighting in the east is down and the only thing of significance lately is Russia’s attempts to strike targets with their missiles / drones.
Russia appears to be bent on trying to interdict Ukrainian preparations for the offensive via missile / drone strikes. However, it is apparent that they are unable to overwhelm the Ukraine AD assets to inflict any serious damage. Some are trying to say that the AD missiles are more expensive than the missiles/drones Russian is throwing at them - thus saying Russia is winning. However, the missile attacks of this month alone have stripped months worth of production and is forcing Russia to use old, Soviet era cruise missiles. Also, Russian is attempting to stoke from multiple directions at once.
Ukraine has a mix of types of ADA donated by a number of countries. Under some circumstances this would result in poor defenses - however, Ukraine has apparently successfully integrated the capabilities of the systems to create reinforcing domes of protection. Russia continues to deplete it missile stockpiles in vain attempts that less than 10% of its missiles get through.
Central / South America General-
Constitutional crisis brewing in Ecuador as President Guillermo Lasso disbanded the opposition-led National Assembly on Wednesday with a never-before-used constitutional measure. He is facing embezzlement charge and this move will enable him to rule by decree until the next national elections.
Misc of Note –
Massive drug addition slamming the homeless tent cities in the big blue metro areas like Portland, LA and Philadelphia. Gaining prominence is the use of what is being called the ‘zombie drug” Xylazine - a veterinary tranquilizer now being mixed in with fentanyl and meth.
Hard drugs are even being ‘legalized’ in some of these blue cities, like cocaine, further increasing the problems since the door was opened with dope legalization in many parts of the country. Add to it abuse of prescription pain and depression drugs, and you have a mess.
This is but one component of the globalist agenda to destroy the country. Vast amounts of resources are having to be used to deal with the associated health problems this level of drug abuse is causing and it is only going to get worse as these resources are getting diverted to other areas.
Law enforcement has its hands full already, this is being used to overload the system even more. This is where the country is headed under marxist rule unless someone puts the brakes on hard.
I kinda wonder if he thinks he's being funny....
I kinda wonder if he is thinking at all
Abbreviated post today. I get to handle both grandchildren by myself today and sitting at the computer just isn’t in the mix. I’ll double up tomorrow.
Democratic senators introduced the Digital Platform Commission Act, which would create a federal agency to develop and enforce rules for social media platforms.
OBSERVATION - A continuation of the GGR/WEF goal to censor and control free speech and free thought. 1984 on steroids.
Economy –
The North American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) said two-thirds of North America could face power shortages during periods of extreme electricity demand and high temperatures this summer.
OBSERVATION - Now add to this the EPA/WEF demand that will shut down 90% of the coal/gas power plants - with no viable replacement - and we could see portions of the country revert to the 1800’s .
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The increasingly shrill demand by some in the black community for reparations is triggering pushback from the rest of the nation. The growing demands that will likely be rejected, may trigger violent protests composed of looting and burning cities a la 2020 in the name of claiming reparations. Already, the massive shoplifting in Blue cities has the black community justifying it as collecting reparations.
Picture people trying to keep their jobs in a severe recession facing possible destruction of those jobs at the hands of mobs looking to destroy and burn those businesses to the ground.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The testimony of the FBI whistleblowers shines and ugly light on what Wray et al have turned that institution into - a filthy political hit machine - with no accountability.
China –
Chinese effort to involve the eastern nations of the former Soviet Union into an economic cooperation and infrastructure development. This, like other areas of the world, is a bait and switch as China will offer great incentives, but knowingly allow those countries to over borrow. And when they can’t make the payments, China takes physical control - be it mines and other resources, transportation assets, etc.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
Economic Impact –
G7 agrees new sanctions to ‘starve Russia’s war machine’
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
RUMINT –
There are some reports that the 2 (3?) helicopters and 2 Russian fighter jets shot down a few days ago was accomplished by missiles from a Patriot battery. This story has been floating around, unconfirmed, for a couple days now. Theoretically, the aircraft would be in range of missiles depending on location of the battery, however, it would require the battery to be dangerously close to the Ukraine border. It could be the reason Russia launched two missile strikes in an effort to take a battery out.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Situation at Bakhmut is still rather dynamic. Both sides claim gains in the city proper, while Ukraine continues to hammer the north and south flanks.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast —— A great deal of confusion concerning the status of the city. Russia claiming Bakhmut has fallen.
Ukrainian forces seized the tactical initiative & made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are part of localized UKR counter-attacks & do not reflect the start of a major new operation.
Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.
The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti (15km north of Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered the settlement.
The milbloggers comments echo those from Ukrainian forces sources.
Ukraine confirms a further 1.1 mile advance on the flanks of Bakhmut
The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade reported a breakthrough on the western outskirts of Bakhmut - Ukraine advanced 2000 meters in width and 700 meters in depth. Preliminary, the Russians have at least 50 KIA and up to a hundred WIA.
Minor Russian attacks in several locations west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK –
The great waiting game continues. Looks like Wagner will finally, after something like 10 months, gain control of the rubble that was Bakhmut. Meanwhile Ukraine is gaining momentum in seizing the surrounding territory away from Russia and may soon threaten to encircle the Wagner forces. All the while, forcing more Russian reserves to be thrown into the mix and away from an operational reserver force necessary to counter the real offensive. Though it hurt, Ukraine’s Bakhmut gambit appears to have paid off by thwarting the Russian winter offensive and allow Ukraine to attrit Russian forces in preparation for the spring offensive.
Central / South America General-
Argentine President Alberto Fernández said a 2018 $57 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy was “a crime” after a government audit found the deal did not pass through proper legislative channels.
OBSERVATION - First step in trying to declare that they don’t have today the money back.
Abbreviated post today. I get to handle both grandchildren by myself today and sitting at the computer just isn’t in the mix. I’ll double up tomorrow.
Democratic senators introduced the Digital Platform Commission Act, which would create a federal agency to develop and enforce rules for social media platforms.
OBSERVATION - A continuation of the GGR/WEF goal to censor and control free speech and free thought. 1984 on steroids.
Economy –
The North American Electricity Reliability Corporation (NERC) said two-thirds of North America could face power shortages during periods of extreme electricity demand and high temperatures this summer.
OBSERVATION - Now add to this the EPA/WEF demand that will shut down 90% of the coal/gas power plants - with no viable replacement - and we could see portions of the country revert to the 1800’s .
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The increasingly shrill demand by some in the black community for reparations is triggering pushback from the rest of the nation. The growing demands that will likely be rejected, may trigger violent protests composed of looting and burning cities a la 2020 in the name of claiming reparations. Already, the massive shoplifting in Blue cities has the black community justifying it as collecting reparations.
Picture people trying to keep their jobs in a severe recession facing possible destruction of those jobs at the hands of mobs looking to destroy and burn those businesses to the ground.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The testimony of the FBI whistleblowers shines and ugly light on what Wray et al have turned that institution into - a filthy political hit machine - with no accountability.
China –
Chinese effort to involve the eastern nations of the former Soviet Union into an economic cooperation and infrastructure development. This, like other areas of the world, is a bait and switch as China will offer great incentives, but knowingly allow those countries to over borrow. And when they can’t make the payments, China takes physical control - be it mines and other resources, transportation assets, etc.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
Economic Impact –
G7 agrees new sanctions to ‘starve Russia’s war machine’
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
RUMINT –
There are some reports that the 2 (3?) helicopters and 2 Russian fighter jets shot down a few days ago was accomplished by missiles from a Patriot battery. This story has been floating around, unconfirmed, for a couple days now. Theoretically, the aircraft would be in range of missiles depending on location of the battery, however, it would require the battery to be dangerously close to the Ukraine border. It could be the reason Russia launched two missile strikes in an effort to take a battery out.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Situation at Bakhmut is still rather dynamic. Both sides claim gains in the city proper, while Ukraine continues to hammer the north and south flanks.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has died off significantly leaving sporadic artillery fire.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast —— A great deal of confusion concerning the status of the city. Russia claiming Bakhmut has fallen.
Ukrainian forces seized the tactical initiative & made tactically significant gains around Bakhmut in counter-attack operations on May 18. These operations are part of localized UKR counter-attacks & do not reflect the start of a major new operation.
Multiple Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces drove through the Russian defensive lines south and southwest of Ivanivske (6km west of Bakhmut) and northwest of Klishchiivka (6km southwest of Bakhmut) from the northwest.
The milbloggers also claimed that Russian forces retreated from positions north of Sakko i Vantsetti (15km north of Bakhmut) to positions south of the settlement, but that Ukrainian forces have not yet entered the settlement.
The milbloggers comments echo those from Ukrainian forces sources.
Ukraine confirms a further 1.1 mile advance on the flanks of Bakhmut
The Ukrainian 3rd Separate Assault Brigade reported a breakthrough on the western outskirts of Bakhmut - Ukraine advanced 2000 meters in width and 700 meters in depth. Preliminary, the Russians have at least 50 KIA and up to a hundred WIA.
Minor Russian attacks in several locations west of Donetsk.
OUTLOOK –
The great waiting game continues. Looks like Wagner will finally, after something like 10 months, gain control of the rubble that was Bakhmut. Meanwhile Ukraine is gaining momentum in seizing the surrounding territory away from Russia and may soon threaten to encircle the Wagner forces. All the while, forcing more Russian reserves to be thrown into the mix and away from an operational reserver force necessary to counter the real offensive. Though it hurt, Ukraine’s Bakhmut gambit appears to have paid off by thwarting the Russian winter offensive and allow Ukraine to attrit Russian forces in preparation for the spring offensive.
Central / South America General-
Argentine President Alberto Fernández said a 2018 $57 billion deal with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to stabilize the economy was “a crime” after a government audit found the deal did not pass through proper legislative channels.
OBSERVATION - First step in trying to declare that they don’t have today the money back.
Globalism / Great Reset –
World Economic Forum advisor Yuval Noah Harari arrived in Lisbon, Portugal, Friday, presumably to attend the 69th annual Bilderberg Group meeting, despite not formally being listed as an expected attendee.
Harari was photographed arriving at the Humberto Delgado Airport in Lisbon Thursday evening as the ultra-secretive globalist conference kicked off.
OBSERVATION - At one time laughed off as massive ‘conspiracy theory’, Bilderberg is now recognized as a cog in the greater WEF machinery doing its part in implementing Schwab’s global plans. Some observers note that significant actions have occurred after these meetings like the delay in the Iraq invasion, etc.
Harari’s presence is a reminder to the attendees that Bilderberg is subordinate to the WEF as Harari is Schuab’s right hand man.
**
According to Japan’s Yomiuri newspaper, the Group of 7 (“G7”) – Britain, Canada, the European Union, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States – is considering whether to issue a statement on a global pandemic response at the 19-21 May G7 summit in Japan’s city of Hiroshima.
OBSERVATION - The WHO is supposed to be meeting next week to agree to language to modify the ‘Pandemic Treaty’ and create a global, dictatorial health authority. This global authority has the approval of biden, though it will face constitutional challenges as this treaty - dressed up as an ‘agreement’ - seeks to bypass congressional approval.
NOTE - not only are diseases a focus, but released language indicates that any ‘health’ item is open for their dictates. THIS INCLUDES GUN CONTROL as these globalists see gun crime as a health issue. This aspect hasn’t been given much daylight as the stated purpose of the ‘agreement’ is diseases and no emphasizes on other health ‘issues’.
Economy –
Markets on edge over the progress (or lack thereof) over the debt ceiling talks. The impact from even a short term shutdown of the govt could send the economy into a tail spin.
Biden / Harris watch –
biden lost another round to the stairs.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
FBI says it won’t release Jan 6 surveillance video because it would show too many undercover government agents and informants.
OBSERVATION - The FBI reported had hundreds of agent provocateurs buried into the crowds on J6 and just like the so-called kidnapping plan of Michigan’s governor, there is considerable evidence that these agents encouraged the entrance to the capitol as well as violent acts. Unveiling these agents would also tip off patriot groups to infiltrator into their ranks. I’VE BEEN SAYING these groups have been deeply penetrated by feds, collaborators and provocateurs.
Should a hot CW2 scenario kick off, it is becoming very apparent that the feds will in the mix to neutralize patriot groups as soon as possible.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debt limit talks came to an abrupt standstill Friday after Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said it’s time to “pause” negotiations, and a White House official acknowledged there are “real differences” that are making talks difficult.
One of the toughest sticking points in the talks has been the question of spending caps, a key GOP demand but a red line for many Democrats.
Biden overseas at the G7 conference has already cut short the rest of his trip and he is expected to return to Washington later Sunday.
Talks resumed later Friday night.
OBSERVATION - I’m convinced that the WH and the dems are going to drag this out as long as possible - even to the point of forcing a govt shutdown/financial crisis. They have 0bama’s example from his administration that forced the republicans to buckle. Needless to say, but say it again I will - they will burn the nation to the ground as long as they can rule over the ashes.
Illegal Immigration –
One week after Title 42 ended, the Border Patrol is “encountering” roughly 4,000 illegal migrants crossing the Mexican border between the official ports of entry per day. That’s still far too many people, but it’s less than half of the number they were seeing in the previous weeks. One reason for this is that Mexico has been loading migrants up in buses and onto planes and sending them further south to shelters. Similarly, they have been rounding up migrants close to their southern border and shipping them to facilities further north near the center of the country.
OBSERVATION - I think this will be a more temporary situation. Spring is a major period of illegal immigration because the summer heat hasn’t set in yet - when there is resulting decrease in crossings. Once the current legal challenges and processing changes are ironed out, I expect the crush to resume - as do many other observers. The end of Title 42 didn’t solve the crisis and nothing being done in its aftermath will have any long term impacts either.
**
Nearly half of hotel rooms in New York City today are filled with newly arrived border crossers and illegal aliens, living rent-free at the expense of local taxpayers, Mayor Eric Adams (D) says.
OBSERVATION - Will really impact tourism in even a bigger way, though the hotels are receiving a windfall with higher room rates than they could get from tourists. That is until repairs have to be made once the illegals are out.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 5, 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with few forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in two areas
1) Bahkmut region,
2) Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka
Even if Russia is able to capture those two cities, they lack the follow-on capabilities to exploit the success. .
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart. Its initial power grid attacks have ceased and missile/drone attacks are appearing to be more random. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russia has also lost a lot of elite and experienced forces in the fight for Bakhmut, and has few forces available to form an operational reserve.
********
RUMINT-
RUMINT. The Wagner mercenary group is reported to be pulling its most experienced members out of Ukraine and sending them to Sudan, with remaining “unnecessary fighters” being left to die in Bakhmut. Wagner to support RSF factions against govt forces.
Kerch Bridge update –
Russia is reluctant to let any cargo truck traffic - even empty trucks - cross the repaired vehicle side of the bridge, fearing another VED attack. This forces any truck traffic to Crimea to pass through the ‘land bridge’ through occupied southern Ukraine. Russia relies heavily on rail to support its war efforts and the rail side of the bridge is still under repair - with completion still expected to be some time this summer. The bridge has been under heavy use of late as Russians fearing the Ukrainian offensive have been fleeing to Russia from southern Ukraine and Crimea.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
See potential Wagner group pullout from Ukraine under RUMINT above.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
Zelensky held meetings with the heads of delegations of the United Arab Emirates, the Sultanate of Oman and the State of Kuwait. He has now arrived in Japan to meet with G7 leaders.
US has cleared away objections to supplying F-16 fighters to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 20 Shahed drones and 1 reconnaissance Merlin-VR drone overnight.
Situation at Bakhmut is still rather dynamic. Reports that Ukrainian forces are defending the last portions of the town, while continuing to gain back terrain on the northern and southern flanks. RUMINT that Wagner is pulling out its main force.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka has picked up overnight, with attacks from all three sides.
More attacks west of Donetsk, as Russians attempt to force their way along the H-15 highway.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast —— A great deal of confusion concerning the status of Bakhmut. It does look like the city will soon be coming under Russian control, but the question is for how long. Rumors that Russia has had to commit 4 infantry battalions to try to stabilize the situation on the flanks.
Massive explosions near an airfield in Russian held Mariupol.
Minor Russian attacks in several locations west of Donetsk, concentrating along the H-15 Highway.
OUTLOOK –
A great deal of fog of war concerning current status of operations in and around Bakhmut. I think that with Ukraine gaining increasing control of the flanks, it is staging a controlled withdrawal from the city. Further reports of Russia deploying 4 battalions of its scarce reserves -and in some reports VDV forces - to shore up the flanks show a switch in Ukrainian tactics. Russia totally doesn’t have the forces left to exploit any capture of Bakhmut. This exploitation would need armored forces to sprint across the open ground to the next significant town - Chasiv Yar. Those armor and artillery assets, let alone the soldiers, necessary for such an exploitation have been chewed up over the past 10 months of fighting.
The new willingness by the US to grant access to F-16 fighters will be a future changer, but not one for the immediate Ukrainian offensive. Short the use of some volunteer pilots, full Ukranian use will be no sooner than 4-6 months. Ukrainian pilots have shown great skill in learning the advanced avionics of the F-16 and they could be in place to shore up the sky post Ukrainian offensive.
On a more strategic level, Zelensky’s meetings with the Arab League is a slap to the Russian face who for decades held the league in its pockets. Like many other loose ‘allies’ of Russia, these countries are recalibrating their support of putin, and in many instances shifting to China who is making better financial offers. More rumors that Zelensky will visit China following his meetings with G7 leaders - another deep dig at Russia as China has been very wishy washy in its support of putin.
The status of Wagner forces in Ukraine and in particular around Bakhmut is still up in the air. Numerous claims that Wagner was pulling out of Bakhmut have been trotted out, only to be shown to be false. In this case, Wagner moving its best personnel out to support the Sudanese RSF faction has the potential to be true. Since the civil war started there a couple months ago, Wagner was already deep in the side of the RSF providing support. In the Ukraine theater, Wagner’s leader has hung his forces out in a precarious position via his very vocal attacks against the MoD and likely sees the writing on the wall over the catastrophic losses Russia could expect from the Ukraine offensive - and is the rat jumping ship. Wagner has also shown distain for its force - sending the essentially untrained recruited prisoners as cannon fodder against Ukraine positions in Bakhmut, saving its better trained forces as follow on to secure any gains. This redeployment speaks to similar tactics - pull out his best, and leave the trash to defend the ruins of the city. This will only work to Ukraine’s advantage as those remnants likely will not have much sticking power should Ukraine continue to encircle the city and the Wagner elements there find that their support from Russian forces is reduced as it responds to preparation for or counter actions against a Ukraine offensive.
IMHO the Bakhmut Tar Baby was a strategic success for Ukraine and has set them up for their counter strike.
Syria -
Jordan launched airstrikes over night targeting leaders of drug smuggling staging out of southern Syria. Is is being reported that several key leaders were killed. Jordan warned Syria of more actions if they continue to allow these drug smugglers to continue to operate unopposed.
Misc of Note –
Advisers to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on Thursday recommended, by a vote of 10 to 4, that the agency approve Pfizer’s respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine for pregnant women, despite questions about the vaccine’s safety.
OBSERVATION - Follow the money. Wuhan demonstrated that big pharm and in particular Phizer could care less about safety as it will be swept under the rug for the big $$$.
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO is meeting this week on the changes to the pandemic treaty.
**
In a May 15 speech to an EU-sponsored event appropriately titled “The Beyond Growth Conference,” European Commission President Ursula Von Der Leyen said out loud what the climate alarm movement has been trying to keep under wraps for a decade: That economic de-growth enforced by authoritarian governments is a fundamental element of its agenda.
“. . . . she goes onto frankly admit that her government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic was not about public health, but about what the World Economic Forum refers to as “The Great Reset,” an effort to transform economies based in free markets to controlled systems managed by authoritarian governments.
“First, when the pandemic hit us. Our Recovery Plan, NextGenerationEU, has focused not only on restarting our economic activities after the lockdowns but also on transforming our economic model. With a push to decarbonising industries, energy and transport. With an emphasis on digital skills and digital infrastructure. With new investments for schools and hospitals. Beyond growth, NextGenerationEU takes care of the next generation’s future.”
See? It isn’t just about an authoritarian group of government central planners managing every facet of your daily lives, it’s about their desire to “take care” of you.
OBSERVATION - Better details at the link. “economic de-growth” is linked to the elimination of fossil fuels, managed food supply and the resulting depopulation of much of the planet. We know the elites will keep their fossil fuels, but the rest of the world will drift into a neo-1800’s style fiefdom servicing the elites. Hello Hunger Games?
Economy –
Yellen is holding to the June 1 date as the hard deadline for the crash into the debt ceiling. Meanwhile, democrats as well as biden have stated that they could use the 14th Amendment as a way to bypass the ceiling. Yellen said Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that President Joe Biden can not invoke the 14th Amendment to address the debt ceiling under the current circumstances.
There are also other thoughts in that NEW spending under the 14th is prohibited and only existing debt can be addressed. That means that funds have to be committed already and not just a line in the budget. That would shoot down most of the democrat agenda. If someone has more time to check this out and let us know, it would be appreciated.
**
According to the USDA, 33% of winter wheat acreage nationwide will not be harvested, although that number is expected to grow. Some parts of Kansas and Oklahoma will abandon 50-70% of planted acreage.
OBSERVATION - This will hit the economy of the wheat belt. Weather watchers are hopeful that the developing El Nino will generate the moisture for next year’s crop. Wheat crops in other parts of the globe are in good condition, so the risk of shortages is not as significant - as long as new weather conditions don’t intervene.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden told the leaders of the G7 that he convinced Australia, Japan, and India to form an organization called the Quad. Prime Minister Kishida had to remind him that Trump actually put the organization together.
BIDEN: “I’ve spoken at length with President Loon of South Korea.”
South Korea’s president is Yoon Suk Yeol.
Wuhan Plandemic –
On Tuesday, the WHO issued an alert that there had been a rise in “severe myocarditis” in newborns and infants between June 2022 and March 2023 in Wales and England. It said that this was associated with the enterovirus infection, which rarely affects the heart.
A UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) spokesperson confirmed to The Epoch Times that 10 babies have been diagnosed in Wales and five have been diagnosed in England.
The WHO said that “although enterovirus infections are common in neonates and young infants, the reported increase in myocarditis with severe outcomes in neonates and infants associated with enterovirus infection is unusual.”
OBSERVATION - Though blaming “enterovirus” there are many others stating that the timing of Myocarditis and that the wuhan virus can potentially replace it are leading them to suspect the latter.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Debt ceiling negotiations between the house and biden are expected to resume today.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Wagner PMC has announced that beginning May 25th they will begin to Withdraw their Forces from Eastern Ukraine in order for them to be Deployed to other “Hotspots” across the World including Sudan and Syria.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
Zelensky held meetings with the heads of delegations of the United Arab Emirates, the Sultanate of Oman and the State of Kuwait. He has now arrived in Japan to meet with G7 leaders.
US has cleared away objections to supplying F-16 fighters to Ukraine.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
British Storm Shadow cruise missiles have been hitting Russian command, logistic and troop concentrations over the past week.
Four Shahed-136/131 drones were shot down over Ukraine. A Su-35 was confirmed downed over the Black Sea.
Situation at Bakhmut is that Wagner forces have gained essential control and there is a possibility that they are working to switch control of the area over to Russian forces. Ukrainian pressure on the flanks continues as the potential encirclement of the city grows.
Ground fighting at Avdiyivka is ongoing, though at a low level.
The Svatove-Kreminna, Zaporizhizhia and Crimean fronts were relatively quiet, with mostly scattered and sporatic Russian artillery strikes and minimal ground attacks.
Donetsk Oblast —— Ukraine has hit an ammunition storage sites in Yenakieve and near Mospyne airfield in Russian controlled Donetsk region.
Heavy fires are reported in the Nechaevе area as a result of strikes. NOTE - this area is one of the most frequent places from where Russians are shelling Kherson.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions have been reported near Berdyansk Airport in the Russian-Occupied Zaporizhzhia Region; this airport has been utilized by the Russian Armed Forces as a major helicopter base since the City of Berdiansk was captured by them earlier in the War.
Crimean front ———
An explosion was seen in the City of Sevastopol in Russian-Occupied Crimean after which the electricity went out; the light was seen as far as the City of Simferopol to the northeast.
Russian Territory –
Multiple Explosions have been heard and afire appears to be burning in the Shebekinsky District of the Belgorod Region in Western Russia.
Legion “Freedom of Russia” and RDK (Russian Volunteers corps) claimed control over Kozinka village of Grayvoron district of Belgorod region. Russian media report partial evacuation of civilians from Kozinka village of Grayvoron district.
NOTE - “Freedom of Russian” are pro-ukrainian
Fire and explosions reported in Zamostye village of Belgorod region.
OUTLOOK –
Russia has Bakhmut after over 9 months and tens of thousands of dead Russians and likely hundred thousands wounded - countless tanks, armor and artillery lost. It looks like Wagner is following up on its announcement that they are pulling out and having regular Russian units backfill their positions. This replacement will necessitate that Russian planners take more forces away from its preparations for a Ukrainian offensive and into terrain that is seeing Ukraine diverting from its active defense in depth of the town into brutal defeats of regular Russian forces on the flanks - endangering Bakhmut with Ukrainian surrounding and cutoff. One other item, switching over of forces is a dangerous operation - one where poor communication between the forces as well as poor timing could create windows of weakness that Ukraine can exploit.
Russia did gain some initial success in their attempts to surround and cut off Bakhmut - but were unable to seal the deal. Ukraine OTOH, is better trained and will cut the city off. Given Russian performance on these flanks, at the threat of being surrounded, Russian troops may flee the rubble that was Bakhmut.
Ukraine used of British supplied cruise missiles with a 150 mile range - 3x that of HIMARS - has breathed more fear into Russian planners. HIMARS was a shock and Russians over time have adapted their operations to keep them out of range. That gave them a false sense of security. Now these cruise missiles (with accompanying US made drones) are hammering Russian C3CM facilities once thought to be safe. This means Russia has to move these elements ever further away from the battle front. Given Russian logistical weaknesses as well as poor command and control via radio coms - moving these elements even further back will make matters worse - not able to get ammo to troops under assault during the offensive as well as inability to get timely combat data to HQs now nearly a 150 mile away.
Lots of other Ukraininan battlefield shaping taking place via attacks on rail roads. Russia is big on rail providing supplies and increasing attacks are making that very difficult. Logistic is king and that is one of Russia’s most serious weaknesses.
So in summary, Russia has obtained a city that provides it no tactical advantage. It doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture towards the west, and barely has the forces necessary to hold the town. Thus having to redeploy forces to hold the situation, further reducing available forces to counter a Ukrainian offensive.
The White House has estimated that Russia has suffered 100,000 casualties in the fight for Bakhmut alone, including the deaths of more than 20,000 soldiers.
Ukraine is estimated to have suffered some 20,000 casualties.
Weather is continuing to warm and soil conditions becoming more and more conducive to support a Ukrainian offensive over the next couple weeks.
Biden told the leaders of the G7 that he convinced Australia, Japan, and India to form an organization called the Quad. Prime Minister Kishida had to remind him that Trump actually put the organization together.
BIDEN: “I’ve spoken at length with President Loon of South Korea.” South Korea’s president is Yoon Suk Yeol.
ROTFLMAO... GREAT ONE Godzilla
Globalism / Great Reset –
Brazilian President Luis Inácio Lula da Silva told reporters at the G7 summit in Japan that BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) would have to create a common currency.
”It is not possible to depend on the dollar for foreign trade. It is not possible to depend on a currency that you do not produce. There’s only one country that produces, and that is the United States,” Lula said.
OBSERVATION - The movement to dethrone the dollar as the global currency of trade is growing rapidly. A lot quicker than i thought it would a recent as last year. A lot has to do with the global crash of US leadership and the successful switch to looking a China as the world’s leader.
Economy –
Both McCarthy and a biden spokesperson said progress was made in over night talks. But agreement as of yet on raising the debt ceiling.
It looks like democrats are getting cold feet about forcing a shutdown. Could swing the tide of the negotiation to the republican favor, forcing key concessions .
**
Jake Jolly, head of investment analysis at BNY Mellon Investment Management, has outlined three possible scenarios, each considering the impact of the banking crisis, the “stickiness” of inflation, and the path of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Scenario 1: The credit crunch — 50% probability
It certainly isn’t the best-case scenario.
This imagines what would happen if the Federal Reserve hikes interest rates two or even three more times as the banking turmoil in the United States and Europe cause credit conditions to tighten significantly.
That would catapult the United States into recession during the second half of 2023 (Europe and the UK will feel it even earlier). The red-hot labor market would loosen quickly, and layoffs would be widespread.
Scenario 2: Delayed Landing — 30% probability
In this scenario, key global central banks pause their rate hikes in response to the banking crisis. Labor markets remain exceptionally tight and wage growth re-accelerates, adding to sticky inflation levels.
China’s reopening, meanwhile, ends up being inflationary for core goods.
As inflation grows again, central banks are forced to hike rates even more, sending the United States into recession in the second half of 2024.
Scenario 3: Soft Landing — 20% probability
This would be the ideal and, according to Jolly, least likely scenario.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/05/02/investing/premarket-stocks-trading/index.html
OBSERVATION - Economists continue to gaze into their crystal balls and tea leaves trying to discern what is about to hit the economy. This one has merit as it is trying to apply the current economic situation and project how each component will impact the other.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The FBI improperly performed warrantless searches on more than a quarter-million U.S. citizens in a single year, a 127-page court filing unsealed Friday by the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court (FISA), in the latest instance of FBI abuse of its powers to make the news.
The FBI conducted more than 278,000 illegitimate queries on citizens, including some George Floyd protestors and more than nineteen thousand donors to a Congressional campaign, in the 12 months ending November 2021.
The FBI conducted search queries on U.S. citizens without any justification or evidence of wrongdoing, the court filing reveals.
OBSERVATION - Stasi style surveillance state. No one will be held accountable in the FBI/DoJ over this.
Terrorism -
The US Secret Service said it had detained the driver of a rented box truck that crashed into security barriers near the White House on Monday night, perhaps intentionally, but that there were no injuries or ongoing danger.
A Reuters witness said investigators found a Nazi swastika flag that apparently came from inside the truck, which crashed into barriers at Lafayette Square, near the White House grounds.
Officers retrieved the flag and plastic evidence bags that had been laid out on the pavement following the crash and placed them in the back of the U-Haul, a Reuters photographer said.
“Preliminary investigation reveals the driver may have intentionally struck the security barriers at Lafayette Square,” Anthony Guglielmi, chief of communications for the Secret Service, said on Twitter.
OBSERVATION - Poorest planned terror attack or false flag ever.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The FBI refused again on Monday to comply with a subpoena from House Oversight Chair James Comer (R-KY) requiring the agency to turn over unclassified documents related to allegations that then-Vice President Biden engaged in a “pay-to-play” scheme with a foreign national.
OBSERVATION - This just adds another nail into the coffin that is the FBI. If any still feel it is a force for good, well, they might as well go to their local train station and await their boxcar.
MORE Related - - Biden Justice Department formally shut down Clinton Foundation “investigation” in August, 2021. FBI destroyed all evidence.
OBSERVATION - If this is true, it is further evidence that the FBI is corrupted beyond redemption. It is already news that the DoJ shut down FOUR (4) separate investigations into the Clinton mafia after biden took the throne.
**
Maricopa County Superior Court Judge Peter Thompson dismissed Kari Lake’s lawsuit against the stolen 2022 Midterm Election late Monday night, following a three day trial exposing election misconduct and fraudulent mail-in ballot signature verification.
The new Minute Entry states, “rather than trying to cast doubt on a specific number of ballots (a herculean evidentiary endeavor in these circumstances), she attempts to prove that the signature review process for Maricopa County was not conducted pursuant to A.R.S. § 16-550(A) or the EPM.”
However, as The Gateway Pundit reported, Kari Lake attorney Kurt Olsen told the Court, “11 of the signature verification workers approved 170k signatures at a rate of less than 0 and 2.99 seconds with a 99.97% approval rating.” Later, in closing argument, Olsen revealed that “there were approximately 274,000 ballot signatures compared and verified in less than three seconds.”
Lake is expected to appeal this ruling again all the way to the Arizona Supreme Court.
OBSERVATION - Even when clearly violating the law, corrupt judge sides with democrats. There is no country without adherence to the laws designed to preserve it. When citizenry can no longer look to the ballot box to settle things, they will look to other options.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
Russia announces that it has evacuated its tactical nuclear weapons from the Belgorod-22 facility near Grayvoron. See Ukraine below.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
RUMINT –
There is a rumor that Ukrainian Forces has extracted from Belgorod region a system that jams unjammable satellite communications and encoded GPS. Device in the latest configuration, and that is one most wanted tool by West.
MORE RUMINT - The current action in Grayvoron is reportedly an effort to seize tactical nuclear warheads from the nearby Strategic Rocket Forces nuclear storage facility 15 kilometers from Graivoron.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Russian forces continue to press westward along the M-04 highway south of Avdilvka and northwest of Donetsk.
Russian Territory –
Legion “Freedom of Russia” and RDK (Russian Volunteers corps) continued to clash with Russian police/guards. Belgorod Regional Officials have stated that “Ukrainian Forces” have entered and Partially-Captured at least 4 Settlements near the Border Region including the Towns of Kozinka, Glotovo, Gora-Podol and Grayvoron with a Heavy Fighting still going on in the North.
Russian media report partial evacuation of civilians from Kozinka village of Grayvoron district.
The Russian force numbers about 100 and is minimally equipped with a couple tanks, and 8-10 armored vehicles.
Ukrainian officials are stating that the operations carried out in Belgorod region are exclusively by Russian citizens.
Russia announces that it has evacuated its tactical nuclear weapons from the Belgorod-22 facility near Grayvoron. They were stored only a few km from where the fighting is taking place right now
**
A drone dropped an explosive device on administration building in Borisovka village of Belgorod region.
A drone dropped explosive device at HQ of FSB in Belgorod region, setting the building on fire.
OUTLOOK –
The incursion into the Belgorod area by these Russian forces aligned with Ukraine is quite interesting to observe - and eventually doomed to fail if holding terrain is their goal. If the RDK and LSR forces penetrated as deep as they reportedly did (it’s not confirmed) then it further demonstrates the truism that field fortifications don’t matter if they’re not manned.
This incursion has thrown the population in the Oblast into terror frenzy - evacuating, ripping doors off bomb shelters to gain access, Russian key stone cop response, etc. But it also serves as a wakeup call to Russian military planners - they are very vulnerable to counter invasion. If Ukraine was really serious, they could have used a larger element, drove to the Russian nuke storage area and quickly captured the warheads and pulled out long before a serious Russian response could have been mounted. Very minimalist forces there.
The field fortification aspect is also key. It did nothing to stop this force. If you don’t have barriers covered by fire, they are worthless. The huge expanse of fortifications Russia has installed during the winter will require spreading already thin Russian forces over a very long area. Ukraine will focus its attacks and easily overwhelm Russians and these defenses will be shown to be worthless.
Battles continue in Bakhmut, but the fight for the city is mostly over. Fight for the flanks is continuing with Ukraine making gains.
Russian activity elsewhere is on the decline as Russia is trying to ready itself for defensive operations. The action in Belgorod will be another headache for Russian planners.
Europe / NATO General –
Ukrainian pilots have already started training on the F-16 in various Nato countries.
Ping above
Seems like there is another shoe about to be dropped.
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO continues meetings this week.
Economy –
Wall Street is nervous about the results (or lack thereof) of debt ceiling negotiations.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden says Nancy Pelosi “helped rescue the economy in the Great Depression
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Rep. Pramila Jayapal: There will be “a huge backlash...in the streets” if the White House agrees to spending cuts.
OBSERVATION - Clearly incitement to riot, something the marxists in congress have done and gotten away with time and time again. I seriously doubt Antifa et al are going to take to the streets on this issue.
Terrorism -
The latest ‘white nationalist’ is a 19 yr old of Indian descent (driver of the Haul).
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
Guam hit hard by super-typhoon, most of the island without power.
Wuhan Plandemic –
From Israel - Following court order, today Israel Ministry of Health released data regarding Covid mortalities.
- Total Covid deaths in the age group under 50 with no comorbidities: Zero.
- Zero healthy people under 50 died of Covid.
OBSERVATION - Israel, though going full in on the jab program, has also been the source of some of the most damning information on the over pitched nature of the wuhan virus.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Though putting forth happy talk about some progress being made on the debt ceiling crisis, nothing solid has yet come out. Now about 9 days to the infamous “X” day when funds run out. McCarthy says he will not waive house rules for 72 hours of debate, citing the deadline by one third.
China –
See Japan below
Japan –
Chinese coast guard vessels entered into the disputed Japanese Senkaku Islands, which China calls the Diaoyu Islands, on Wednesday in what Beijing announced as normal “rights protection” patrols.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Russian officials said on Tuesday that its security services had routed and killed scores of Russian nationalists who blasted their way into Russia’s Belgorod region on Monday. However, these claims appear to be not much more than propaganda as continued evidence of these Russian (not Ukrainian) nationalists activities continue. Three other border areas were penetrated into yesterday and those units faced little to no resistance.
Fighting in Bakhmut proper has dropped off significantly, while fights on the flanks have increased.
All along the front, activity has been on a decrease, probable evidence of Russian attempting to switch to a more defensive posture.
Donetsk Oblast ——
Continued efforts by Russia to progress westward on the M-04 highway.
Russian Territory –
Incoming reports that the Free Russia Legion captured another 2 villages in the Belgorod region of Russia today. Igor Girkin (Strelkov) writes on Telegram that the villages of Gorkovsky and Shchetinovka have been taken by the Legion.
Governor of the Belgorod region Gladkov officially confirmed the information about the explosion in Belgorod: according to him, an explosive device was dropped on the roadway from a UAV.
OUTLOOK –
Overall, in the main combat areas things have slowed way down. I expect it to remain so until Ukraine’s offensive kicks off.
The incursions into the Belgorod are placing Russia in a bad PR fix. With expanded raids (limited duration and goals with minimal support) now in other places on the Russian Belgorod border, it is being demonstrated that these areas are poorly defended - if at all. The ease with which these raiders moved across and into Russian territory is not what the people of Russia want to see at this moment.
Ukraine has to be complicit with these operations as they are being based out of Ukraine by these allied units. The wise thing is that these are RUSSIANS in these units - not Ukrainian, thus giving a degree of deniability to the operation. As noted above, Russia has offered little to no resistance to these incursions. If Ukraine decided to conduct even a moderately sized operation, they would eat a big chunk out of Russia.
Through the cross-border raids into Belgorod, the Ukrainian Army just doubled the length of the stretch of land where Russia will have to keep defensive forces.
These raids are likely part of Ukraine’s shaping of the battlefield. It is going to force Russia to redeploy forces to protect these border regions and take away forces needed elsewhere. If they don’t Ukraine has a plan “b” to fall back on.
Moldova/Transnistria -
The RussianFederation Council suggests that Russia may initiate a criminal case against Moldovan President Maia Sandu and put her on the international wanted list. On May 23, Sandu said that Moldova would arrest Putin if he came to the country.
Belarus -
Concerns of his death are now past. “And if someone thinks I’m about to die - calm down. You will suffer with me for a very long time” - Lukashenko
Europe / NATO General –
Ukrainian pilots have already started training on the F-16 in various Nato countries.
Question : Did Israel ever issue compulsory covid-19 vaccine mandate for the entire population ?
Did Israel follow the US CDC medical protocol of remdesivir along with ventilator intubation, which in combination led to cases of hospital pneumonia ?
I believe they had the mandated jab. Not sure about ventilators
Heads up, I will not be posting this Saturday - Sunday due to Memorial Day and Monday’s post will likely be abbreviated/summarized.
Globalism / Great Reset –
WHO meetings contine.
Economy –
Global corn production is forecast to sharply increase, driven primarily by a forecast of continued high production in Brazil and rebounds in the United States and Argentina. Supplies in Ukraine are forecast to fall as the ongoing war limits production. Trade is forecast to increase as ample supplies from major exporters Brazil, Argentina, and the United States lower prices and supports a rebound in global demand. Global consumption of corn for both feed and non-feed uses is forecast up. Ending stocks are also forecast to rise, primarily due to a strong surge in stocks in the United States.
The global wheat outlook is for larger production and consumption with declining global trade and ending stocks. Production is projected to increase with larger crops in Argentina, Canada, China, the European Union (EU), India, and Turkey more than offsetting large declines for Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine. Global trade will contract with lower imports for China. Declines in exports for Australia, India, Ukraine, and the United States will more than offset increases for Argentina, Canada, and the EU. Global consumption is forecast up on larger Food, Seed, and Industrial (FSI) use more than offsetting lower feed and residual use. Ending stocks are forecast down, with smaller stocks in the EU, Russia, and the United States.
Global rice production is forecast at a record with larger production in Asia, especially on record crops in Bangladesh, India, and China along with a recovery in Pakistan. Global consumption is expected to rise to a new record, primarily from strong growth in India, Bangladesh, and Sub- Saharan Africa. Global trade is forecast virtually unchanged with India remaining the top exporter. Pakistan is expected to see significant growth in exports amidst a rebounding crop, while forecasts for Thailand and Vietnam – the next largest exporters – are down due to less demand from Indonesia. Global stocks continue a downward trend to a 6-year low.
OBSERVATION - This has potential to bring food prices down eventually.
Terrorism -
DHS issued a new domestic terror alert -
“The United States remains in a heightened threat environment. Lone offenders and small groups motivated by a range of ideological beliefs and personal grievances continue to pose a persistent and lethal threat to the Homeland. Both domestic violent extremists (DVEs) and those associated with foreign terrorist organizations continue to attempt to motivate supporters to conduct attacks in the Homeland, including through violent extremist messaging and online calls for violence. In the coming months, factors that could mobilize individuals to commit violence include their perceptions of the 2024 general election cycle and legislative or judicial decisions pertaining to sociopolitical issues. Likely targets of potential violence include US critical infrastructure, faith-based institutions, individuals or events associated with the LGBTQIA+ community, schools, racial and ethnic minorities, and government facilities and personnel, including law enforcement.”
https://www.dhs.gov/ntas/advisory/national-terrorism-advisory-system-bulletin-may-24-2023
OBSERVATION - this in parallel with the stated position that whites are the greatest threat to the country, it is apparent that this broad brush terror alert is in line with that position. Also note emphasis on recipients being LGBTQIA+. We are entering a month of Gay Pride Month perversion - watch for false flags.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The U.S. Navy ordered the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier strike group to head to the island of Guam to assist in the recovery effort from the Typhoon Mawar, according to reports.
The Nimitz, along with the USS Bunker Hill, a cruiser, and the USS Wayne E. Meyer, a destroyer, were south of Japan headed to Guam, where they were expected to arrive in three or four days.
POLITICAL FRONT –
All kinds of maneuvering and chest thumping as ‘negotiations’ for the debt ceiling raise continue. Judging from the intensity of the democrat bleats, the republicans may hold the edge for once.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
Chinese government-backed hackers have attacked and compromised “critical” US infrastructure, according to Microsoft. Microsoft says it discovered a Chinese government hacking group targeted sensitive telecommunications providers around the U.S. to install code that could disrupt critical communications infrastructure
Illegal Immigration –
Illegals continue to pile up at the border, but the massive surge that has been expected is still pending.
China –
See Cyber Attacks/war above.
North/South Korea –
SK and US start a several week series of live fire exercises.
Japan –
Japan has scrambled jet fighters after spotting Russian military planes over the Pacific Ocean and Sea of Japan (East Sea), the defense ministry says.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
********
NUCLEAR THREATS –
See Belarus for latest on storing nukes there.
RUMINT-
Prigozhin, the founder of the Wagner mercenary group, warned that Russia could face a revolution similar to those of 1917 and lose the conflict in Ukraine unless the elite got serious about fighting the war.
As per Russian military bloggers, the 74th Motorized Rifle Brigade is being redeployed to the border of Ukraine in Belgorod Oblast from Zaporizhizhia Oblast
Russian Personnel Issues –-
The Wagner Group’s announced two-month reconstitution period could have Wagner forces sitting out key parts of the Ukrainian counteroffensive depending on when and how it begins.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
RUMINT –
“Freedom of Russia Legion conquered more territories in a day than Wagner Group did in a year in Bakhmut”
- Bild.
Wagner’s Prigozhin - “Western analysts consider the breakthrough of the sabotage group into the Belgorod region as evidence that the Russian line of defense is extremely vulnerable, which is another proof that Putin is unable to wage this war, since the “grand” plan “Kyiv in 3 days” has reached a point where Russia cannot defend their own territory. If the Russians want to prepare to repel further raids, it will have to withdraw 60,000 soldiers from Ukraine.”
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 36 of 36 Shahed drones launched by Russia overnight.
Belgorod region saw 6 persons wounded as result of shelling at Kozinka and Grayvoron border checkpoint yesterday evening. RDK again entered the territory of Russia yesterday.
Fighting in Bakhmut proper has dropped off significantly, while fights on the flanks have increased.
Kharkiv Front -
PMC Wagner mercenaries reportedly started withdrawal from Bakhmut. More scattered fighting along the southern flank of the city. The pullout has yet to be confirmed.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Explosions and fire reported at airport in Melitopol, Zaporizhzhia region
Russian Territory –
The SIGINT intelligence collection ship Ivan Hurs was attacked by Ukrainian naval drones in the Bosphorus area yesterday. No damage caused - Russia’s Ministry of Defense. However, there is video evidence that at least one of the drones made it to the ship and exploded.
OUTLOOK –
Operational tempo continues to change. Raids into the Belgorod region appear to have created the desired effect in having Russia pull forces out of Ukraine to bolster the border region. Wagner’s Prigozhin has said it would take 60,000 troops to secure the border. That would be a huge hit to Russian plans to defend southern Ukraine.
Ukraine has adjusted to the threat from the Iranian drones quite well. Russia’s success now appears to be when multiple types and numbers of missiles are launched in addition to the Shahed drones - in a saturation attack. However, even those attacks are losing effectiveness and causing Russia to waste assets.
Belarus -
This morning, Belarusian Defense Minister Khrenin and Russian Defense Minister Shoigu met in Minsk. and signed documents determining the procedure for storing Russian nuclear weapons in Belarus. They also signed documents determining the procedure for storing Russian non-strategic nuclear weapons in a special storage facility on the territory of Belarus.
Shoigu stated that the Russian Federation will exercise control over nuclear weapons, as well as decide on their use.
Iran –
Iran unveiled the fourth generation of its Khorramshahr ballistic missile under the name Khaibar, with a range of 2,000 km (1,243 miles) and a 1,500 kg (3,300 lb) warhead, the official IRNA news agency reported on Thursday.
OBSERVATION - Iran continues to expand its arsenal that not only threatens Israel, but its opponents in the Persian Gulf region.
Turkey –
Turkish runoff election is fast approaching and it appears that Erodogen stands to be reelected.
Should help with inflation the world over... Nice happy news about crops.
Heads up, I will not be posting this Saturday - Sunday due to Memorial Day and Monday’s post will likely be abbreviated/summarized.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Planting this tidbit of info here because of globalist aspirations.
“Louisiana Attorney General Jeff Landry, filed a lawsuit (Missouri v. Biden) against the Biden Administration, including Biden himself, Anthony Fauci, the Department of Homeland Security, and nearly a dozen federal agencies and Secretaries. Schmitt has moved on to represent Missouri in the US Senate.
The suit alleges a massive coordinated effort by the Deep State (permanent administrative state) to work with Big Tech to censor and manipulate Americans – from average citizens to news outlets – on issues including the Hunter Biden Laptop from Hell, 2020 Election Integrity, COVID-19 origin and extent skepticism, COVID-19 vaccine skepticism, among other issues.”
“The most widespread and troubling discovery? CISA has designated YOUR THOUGHTS part of the government’s infrastructure. They call it “cognitive infrastructure.”
They argue they can regulate what you think as they consider it under their purview.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/05/biden-regime-designates-your-thoughts-as-part-government/
OBSERVATION - As Orwellian as this sounds, consider the extensive efforts the regime went through to throttle free speech / thought as exposed by the Twitter Files. Their obsessive drive to silence any thing opposing the official ‘narrative’ along multiple subjects -as the article indicates.
Economy –
Fitch Ratings has placed the United States’ ‘AAA’ Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) on Rating Watch Negative.
Meanwhile, McCarthy and biden state that there is some ‘progress’ at reaching an agreement. The Times reported negotiators were closing in on a deal that would raise the debt limit for two years while imposing strict caps on spending, with the military and veterans’ budgets protected from caps.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
RUMINT “A federal agency has two snitches inside Delta Force. They’re active-duty soldiers with 18-series MOS’s who have passed selection but they’re actually undercover cops keeping an eye on things for another agency. The unit doesn’t realize they’ve been infiltrated.”
OBSERVATION - As far fetched that this would seem, shake off the normalcy bias and realize that the regime’s surveillance push to watch potential adversaries increases the likelyhood of this being factual. Special ops forces can generally be considered to be conservative and highly motivated. In the event that things go ‘hot’ in the country, Special Ops are one element I would consider to be on the side of the citizens. This rumor may also be used to plant suspicion and upset the tight bonds Special Ops forces have as a group. I really pity the fools who are snitches - if this report is accurate.
Wuhan Plandemic –
Children of certain ages who received Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine face an elevated risk of heart inflammation, according to a new federally funded study.
Vaccinated children aged 12 to 17 face a heightened risk of myocarditis, a form of heart inflammation, and a related condition called pericarditis, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) researchers found.
The number of myocarditis and pericarditis events in that age group met the threshold for a safety signal, the researchers reported in the Journal of the American Medical Association on May 22.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2805184
OBSERVATION - Increasing documentation that the myocarditis associated with wuhan is a threat to younger recipients of the jab.
Illegal Immigration –
Chicago-area parents are voicing their outrage over public schools allowing migrant children to enroll without health documentation, as cities across the U.S. are dealing with an influx of migrants into their communities.
Mother Jennifer Preston joined “Fox & Friends First” on Thursday to discuss the hypocrisy of requiring vaccination records from residents, while migrants are allowed to enroll without such documents.
“Right now in the school district in which we live we have to provide residency, citizenship, health records and vaccination records on an almost annual basis. I have a child right now, and I must have five emails in my inbox stating that my child cannot return to school next year without a specific vaccine. So it’s certainly inconsistent with what they’re allowing for the migrant children coming into the Chicago public schools.”
OBSERVATION - Rude awakening for all those liberals in Chicago who voted for biden.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
********
Yesterday, it was being reported that a second Russian flagged multi-use vessel, 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘢𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 (IMO 9340609), is reported to be ‘hove to’ [adrift] in the Black Sea. It seems that the “Commander” is a recovery ship and the message was in regards to the “Ivan Khurs”. Sources indicate that the “Ivan Khurs” received serious damage to the hull and equipment. Its repair will take at least six months. There are dead.
The “Commander” rescue ship is now reportedly transporting the stricken ship to Novorossiysk. The minimum speed is 0.8 knots per hour, which once again confirms the serious damage.
News from Russian is following the same pattern as with the sinking of the Moskva over a year ago.
**
Belgorod Oblast Governor Vyacheslav Gladkov announced that Russian officials have created seven territorial defense battalions in Belgorod Oblast as of May 24, likely to posture his engagement in the defense of Russian border areas following the May 22 raid. A prominent Russian milblogger claimed on May 24 that these battalions have a strong presence but are severely hindered by an inadequate weapons supply.
NOTE - It his believed that these battalions, are unfunded and unequipped, will very unlikely to have a substantial positive effect on the security of Russian border areas. The announcement seems to be more directed at propaganda to stem the concerns of those living in the border region. Saying you’ve created these battalions doesn’t mean they are on the border ready to go.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
TASS: Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu: “In the context of an extremely sharp escalation of threats on the western borders of Russia and Belarus, a decision was made to take countermeasures in the military-nuclear sphere.”
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
ㅤUkrainian Defense Sources are reporting that the Russian Missile attack on the Capital City of Kyiv tonight utilizing Kh-55 Cruise Missiles launched from Tu-95MS Strategic Bombers was a “failure” with all missiles being detected and destroyed resulting in no casualties or damage.
Ukraine reported that it shot down -
10x Kh-101/Kh-555.
23x Shahed-131/136
2x Orlan
However, S-300/S-400 missiles hit Dnipro and Kharkiv. 1 person killed, 15 wounded as result of missile strike at hospital in Dnipro city where Russian struck a major hospital in Dnipro. The hospital is a hub for Ukrainian soldiers wounded at the frontlines. They are treated there before being transported to other hospitals. The regional governor says there are fatalities.
A major oil depot was struck in Kharkiv and is on fire, according to Ukrainian officials.
Kharkiv Front -
The Ukrainian military confirm that the Wagners forces have begun to leave Bakhmut, and the regular army is taking their place.
Donetsk Front ——
A factory in Russian-occupied Berdyansk was hit. The explosions are strong and caused secondary explosions. Some report an ammunition depot was hit by Storm Shadows.
Crimean front ———
Loud explosions rang out through Russian-occupied Berdiansk. Local Telegram channels reported that at least two blasts were heard in the city. Ukrainian Forces successfully struck a Russian military facility in the same city, 3 km away on May 21.
Russian Territory –
Explosions in Schebekyne district of Belgorod region.
Drones similar to Shaheds are striking Krasnodar, Russia, overnight
OUTLOOK –
Situation continues to be one of operational pauses combined with battlefield preparations for the next phase of the war - the Ukraine offensive.
Russian and Ukrainian missile strikes are designed to shape the battle field in advance of the anticipated Ukraine assault. I would say that so far, Ukraine has the advantage in economy of strikes as well as effective penetration of Russian air defenses. Ukraine knows when Russian strategic bombers are in the air and the likelihood that they are carrying cruise missiles. Same goes for Black Sea fleet vessels. This gives Ukraine ADA assets advance notice (in some cases 30 minutes or more) of incoming and likely target regions. Russia doesn’t have such flexibility with the shorter range Ukraine assets.
With the apparently successful strike against the Russian intel ship “Ivan Khurs”, Russian forces in the Black Sea will be even more cautious venturing out from their Crimean ports. The fact that these drone boats struck the “Ivan Khurs” in the southern half of the Black Sea indicates that there must have been a mother ship of some kind. This will definitely cause Russian to be even more reluctant to expose these vessels when the Ukraine offensive kicks off.
Wagner forces are apparently handing over Bakhmut to regular army forces and reportedly staying in theater for at least 2 months to recover and rearm. This suggests that they are being held as a reserve force to counter any Ukraine breakthroughs.
Moldova/Transnistria -
Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s Party has put forward a law proposal to Parliament that will change the Soviet-style WW2 “Victory Day” celebrated on May 9th into the type of Western celebration that takes place on May 8th.
Syria -
Assad may be preparing to renew an attempt to capture southern Idlib Provence given the increased artillery and air strikes in the region overnight. Region has been essentially static since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Mexico -
Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) urged Latin voters to not support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis in the 2024 Republican primary. AMLO accused DeSantis of “playing politics with migrants” over promises to shut down illegal immigration.
Remembering those who gave their all for our country.
Skimming some of the bigger items - couldn’t maintain detail over the past couple days on the road.
Globalism / Great Reset –
The WHO was to have met last week to iron out final details for a global pandemic response organization who’s rules would overrule national sovereignty. I have not yet found information on the finals of the meetings. However, what i have found indicates that the WHO has set a new target date of May 2024 for a legally binding agreement to be adopted by the UN health agency’s 194 member countries.
Economy –
The nation’s Gross Domestic Product rose 1.3% in the first quarter, half the rate of the previous quarter, as other key measures of the economy faltered, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported Thursday.
While revised up from 1.1%, the first-quarter, inflation-adjusted (“real”) GDP growth of 1.3% was half the 2.6% growth recorded in both the same period last year and the fourth quarter of 2022.
Adjusted pre-tax corporate profits fell at a 5.1% quarterly rate, more than twice the 2.0% decline the previous quarter. This marks the first time profits have fallen for three straight quarters since 2015, under the Obama Administration.
Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 2.3% in the first quarter, following a revised 3.3% decline in the fourth quarter of last year. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, decreased 0.5% in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.4% in the fourth quarter.
The personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was 4.2% in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.6 percentage point.
OBSERVATION - Economic indicators continue to slide towards a recession.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Bomb threats against Target for their grooming displays were not from the right, the email was sent by an LGBTQ fanatic who was upset that the store removed some items from its Pride display.
**
Formal BLM leadership organization is essentially bankrupt with its leaders purchasing multimillion dollar mansions and living the big life off of the extorted millions.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The GOP-led House is expected to vote Wednesday on the legislation resulting from a compromise between House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Biden on the debt limit.
According to the full text of the Fiscal Responsibility Act, the debt ceiling would be lifted by about $4 trillion through Jan. 1, 2025, domestic spending would revert to fiscal year 2022 levels and “top line federal spending” is limited to 1% growth for the next 6 years.
The original House-passed bill that Republicans supported had increased the ceiling by $1.5 trillion and it contained similar spending reforms.
OBSERVATION - Lots not to be happy about. Can kicked down the road for the next congress/president to address.
Cyber attacks/warfare –
(Bloomberg) — An alleged campaign by Chinese state-sponsored hackers on targets in the US and Guam has raised fears that Beijing is preparing to disrupt communications in the Pacific in the event of a conflict.
The hacking campaign was first identified by Microsoft Corp. on Wednesday and quickly confirmed by authorities in the US, UK and other allied nations. Microsoft said the hacking group, which it dubbed Volt Typhoon, had breached government, communications, manufacturing and IT organizations in the US and Guam, a crucial military post in the western Pacific Ocean.
While the identities of most of the hacking victims remains unknown, US Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro told CNBC on Thursday that the Navy was impacted by the intrusions. The extent of the breach wasn’t immediately known. A spokesperson for the US Navy declined to “discuss the status of our networks.”
Meanwhile, Rob Joyce, the director of cybersecurity at the National Security Agency, told CNN Thursday that Chinese hackers could still have access to sensitive US networks that they’ve targeted. Joyce said the intrusions stood out in how brazen they were in “scope and scale.”
OBSERVATION - Battlefield preparation - disruption of command and control being readied.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated May 22 2023
Russia finds itself between a rock and a hard place with pressure from putin to continue the offensive at the expense of positioning forces to respond to a Ukranian offensive.
Russian forces have failed in their attempt to secure the Luhansk and Donetsk oblast borders — an objective that Russian Chief of General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov had also outlined on December 22, 2022. Russia has expended its men and equipment on the battlefields of Bakhmut and the Donetsk sector – primarily Avdiyivka with little to show for their efforts. In five months alone it is conservatively estimated that Russian has lost 100,000 solders incl 20,000 KIA.
Russia is now being forced to face a Ukrainian offensive with fewer forces capable of stopping a well organized attack.
Russia is continuing to try to press the offensive in the Donetsk region – around Avdiyivka, but are failing badly.
Russia has been successful in finally capturing Bakhmut - a very pyrrhic victory by all counts, but doesn’t have the forces necessary to exploit the capture.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. This means that these barrages will be further apart. Russia does have some capability to strike strategic targets during an Ukrainian offensive, but the success rate will likely be low due to improving Ukrainian ADA skills and poor targeting and timeliness of response.
Russia has established an extensive system of tank/armor barriers across the south and east. Russia may not have the forces necessary to concentrate to stop any Ukrainian breach of this system, due to its forces being spread so thin.
NUCLEAR THREATS –
SEE BELOW
RUMINT-
A “trusted source” within the Ukrainian national security establishment told Tsarizm that the Ukrainian leadership believes Russia is planning to use a tactical nuclear device in the Ukraine war in the coming weeks, as the West prepares for it’s ‘spring offensive’ to retake Crimea and Donbass, lost to Russian forces since 2014.
OBSERVATION - At this moment, this reads as propaganda and misinformation warfare. As Russia announces that it is already moving tactical nukes into Belarus this pops up. Russia has been beating the drum about the use of nukes since before the war began. At this stage, Russian has been thwarted on the battlefield and its attempts to change the momentum of the war with conventional missiles/drones failing as well. Tactical nukes hitting at Ukraine’ offensive is pretty much Russia’s ace in the hole to protect Crimea.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs reaching the 70s - 80s, however, rain is forecast for the latter part of the period.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Busy weekend. On Kyiv day, Russia lobbed something like 54 iranian drones at the city w/ 52 shot down. Overnight, Russian continued the attack, Ukrainian air defense shot down all ‘37 missiles and 29 drones’ and in a later attack, all 11 Russian ballistic and cruise missiles Iskander in the 2d consecutive day of attacks on Kyiv.
Some ground action around Bakhmut, while most activity along the front consisted of scattered artillery strikes.
ㅤ
Kharkiv Front -
Wagner is reportedly to finish handing off its frontline positions by June 5th.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
As a probable sign of battlefield shaping, Ukraine has been hitting Russian command posts and troop concentrations throughout this Oblast.
Russian Territory –
The SIGINT intelligence collection ship Ivan Hurs is still a mystery. Looks like it is ok, but a lot of spin and (mis) information over the weekend.
OUTLOOK –
Looks like Ukraine is stepping up strategic attacks on Russian targets in the south. Russia OTOH appears to be stepping up its’ missile campaign against Kyiv. Ukraine’s missile strikes are having success, Russia’s are getting shot down.
As the looming storm that is the expected Ukrainian offensive gets closer, eyes once again shift toward the potential by Russia to use tactical nukes to blunt the attack. In specific, Crimea has been their red line - and Crimea is in Ukraine’s crosshairs. If Ukraine continues in its well developed combined arms tactics armed with better, western equipment and skilled/creative use of offensive means - Russia will get creamed at the point of the offensive. All those ‘fortifications’ are worthless if you cannot defend them with an adequate force. And Russia doesn’t have the forces available to stop the assault at those barriers. Even with some sort of mobile reserve, there will be considerable delay in the Russian response.
This brings us back to Russian use of tactical nukes. Throughout the war, Russia has displayed a callousness towards Ukraine in its indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets, and in order to capture towns, they leveled them to the ground. Now, with over 200,000 casualties (some list it at deaths), the war is hard to hide from Russians and continued losses not looking good for putin’s power base. It would almost seem that nukes are the next to be used.
BLUF - Nukes would likely be successful in blunting the Ukraine offensive - if Russia can figure out where to properly target them. The billion dollar question is does Russia appreciate the secondary consequences of such an action? China and Russia’s few ‘allies’ are working to keep nukes out of the mix. for one. Second, such an attack may trigger Poland and the Baltic states to get directly involved in the war - escalating it to potential full NATO involvement. Russia has no other countries that will run to its aid like Ukraine does (Belarus still doesn’t want anything to do with a Ukraine ground war). Very black days if Russia throws a nuke into the mix.
Shy of nukes, Russia’s only hope is that they get lucky and are able to stop the offensive with the poorly trained and equipped forces it has. Their only hope is a long game where they can keep drafting hundreds of thousands to throw at the front lines and wear Ukraine down over time.
For Ukraine - the stakes are mighty high. Some see this as one of the biggest military operations in Europe since WW2. Its not an overstatement that at this juncture, the results of the war could be decided. If Ukraine can gain results like they did in Kherson and Kharkiv Oblasts, but in at a larger scale, Russia may be forced to negotiate at a disadvantage (and hence the nuke threat raises its head again).
Poland –
Poland has announced it will close the border for freight vehicles registered in Russia and Belarus indefinitely.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Kosovo Serbs rebelled against Albanian mayors entering the municipality buildings following the election boycott by Belgrade-aligned groups. Kosovo moved in to take control back and Serbia moved military forces to the border region as a threat.
NATO troops have formed security cordons in Kosovo as Serbs protest. US troops blocked off four town halls to keep back Serbs protesting against ethnic Albanian mayors taking office in north Kosovo.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has placed the country’s army on full combat alert and ordered its units to move closer to the border with Kosovo, after protesters and police clashed in a majority Serbian town in Kosovo - Reuters
OBSERVATION - This could escalate, but the quick involvement of NATO forces, combined with the democratic elections of ethnic Kosovoans, won’t gain support in the global sphere. Russia is not likely to be involved in this provocation - which may cause things to wind down relatively quickly and it won’t be able to ride to the rescue.
Iran –
Iran has moved military forces to the border with Afghanistan following escalation of a water dispute with the Taliban. Afghanistan reciprocated and fighting broke out along the border. At issue are Iranian claims on water that they say Afghanistan is withholding from them.
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan -
See Iran Above.
Senior Taliban commander Abdulhamid Khorasani, aka Nasser Badri, has in a video message warned that the group will fight against Iranians “with more passion” than they did against the US forces. “We will conquer Iran soon if Taliban’s leaders give the green light for jihad.”
Turkey –
Erdogan easily won his bid for re-election
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