There seems to be some internet issues with many servers this morning, and I’ve not been able to access half the websites I normally do. Haven’t been able to follow links down to root articles so I’ve possibly missed a lot.
Fortunately FR has not been affected.
Wuhan virus –
Lawsuits against the FDA and its alleged directives forbidding the use of ivermectin to treat wuhan are gaining traction. During a hearing in 2022, attorneys defending the government argued that the agency’s missives were just a recommendation.
“They did not say it’s prohibited or it’s unlawful. They also did not say that doctors may not prescribe ivermectin,” Isaac Belfer, one of the lawyers for the government, said during a Nov. 1, 2022, hearing in federal court in Texas.
“The FDA was the key creator of these hurdles when it launched a social media campaign stating that ivermectin is dangerous and only for horses. When faced with a lawsuit, the FDA now claims it was merely making suggestions—suggestions that have threatened my ability to practice medicine and more importantly, interfered with life-saving early treatment of COVID patients,” stated Dr. Mary Bowden , a plaintiff in one of the cases.
OBSERVATION - Another lawsuit – the crack in the dam widens as more and more evidence comes out of the deliberation actions to remove treatments for wuhan that were contrary to the official ‘narrative’. REMEMBER, many of these physicians and nurses lost their certifications and were fired because they prescribed ivermectin for their patients based on this “recommendation” that the covidians twisted into a ban. People lost their lives that could have been saved .
A study that looked into the age-stratified infection fatality rate (IFR) of COVID-19 among the non-elderly population has found that the rate was extremely low among young people.
“The median IFR was 0.0003 percent at 0–19 years, 0.002 percent at 20–29 years, 0.011 percent at 30–39 years, 0.035 percent at 40–49 years, 0.123 percent at 50–59 years, and 0.506 percent at 60–69 years,” the study conducted across 29 countries stated. “At a global level, pre-vaccination IFR may have been as low as 0.03 percent and 0.07 percent for 0–59 and 0–69-year-old people, respectively.”
Some countries have stopped their COVID-19 vaccine programs for children. In October, the Swedish Public Health authority ceased recommending vaccination for 12- to 17-year-olds except under special circumstances. The agency acknowledged that very few healthy children have been affected seriously by the virus.
“Overall, we see that the need for care as a result of COVID-19 has been low among children and young people during the pandemic, and has also decreased since the virus variant omicron began to spread,” Soren Andersson, head of a unit at the Public Health Authority, told broadcaster SVT at the time. “In this phase of the pandemic, we do not see that there is a continued need for vaccination in this group.”
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S001393512201982X
OBSERVATION – These kinds of numbers were known early on during the plandemic. Yet the jab was pushed and mandated and now we have global aftereffects of ‘excessive deaths’, Sudden Adult Death syndrome (SADS), heart conditions, female reproduction issues, documented decline in the immune system strength/capability – just a short list. As much as I’d like to see a Nuremburg style of reconning against the pushers of the jabs and the govt agencies that encouraged it – it will never happen.
The U.S. is extending its requirement for foreign travelers to be fully vaccinated against COVID-19. The requirement was scheduled to expire on Jan. 8. However, it will now expire on April 10, according to an amended order from the Transportation Security Administration. The order applies to non-citizens and non-immigrants.
OBSERVATION – The biggest crier against this requirement is China and the extension decision was made largely with it in mind.
Economy –
A new Gallup poll shows Americans entering the new year with great pessimism about their country, the prospects for peace and prosperity, and their government’s ability to control crime, inflation and deficit spending.
Gallup summed up the poll like this: “Americans enter 2023 with a mostly gloomy outlook for the U.S. as majorities predict negative conditions in 12 of 13 economic, political, societal and international arenas.”
The poll surveyed 1,803 people on whether they had a negative or positive outlook on a host of pressing issues. Gallup states:
“When offered opposing outcomes on each issue, about eight in 10 U.S. adults think 2023 will be a year of economic difficulty with higher rather than lower taxes and a growing rather than shrinking budget deficit.
OBSERVATION – While the survey’s results are based on the subjective views of the surveyed, it is useful to see the gap between the govt’s narrative of happy days are here again versus the cold realities of trying to make ends meet. The public also doesn’t appear to agree with the regime’s actions on a global scale either.
RECESSION WATCH –
The Baltic Exchange’s dry bulk sea freight index crashed on Tuesday in the worst decline on record, sinking on prospects of a global recession. Baltic Dry Good Index is a measure of global shipping and economic health. The overall index, which tracks rates for capesize, panamax, and supramax shipping vessels carrying dry bulk commodities, plunged 17.5% to $1,250, the most significant daily decline since 1984.
OBSERVATION – Recessions result in decreased production of goods. A reflection of those good produced is how busy shipping is. Here the index is flashing global recession warnings.
Two-thirds of top economists at the United States’ largest financial institutions are predicting a recession in 2023, according to a survey conducted by the Wall Street Journal.
Primary concerns cited in the survey of 23 primary dealers, including those from Barclays PLC, Bank of America Corp, TD Securities, and UBS Group AG, were a dwindling of pandemic savings, a decline in the housing market, and a tightening of lending rules as potential warning signs of an incoming recession.
Jeremy Schwartz, Senior US Economist at Credit Suisse, one of the five banks that didn’t predict a recession, wrote of the outlook for 2023, “Several historically reliable lead indicators are sending recession signals, but in our view these measures are unable to correctly gauge recession risk in the current environment.”
OBSERVATION – In essence, Credit Suisse is whistling past the graveyard – contrary to leading indicators of a recession. They are correct in part that the current global economic environment is having unprecedented impact on the future economic outcomes – that environment by many are viewing that they will contribute to a much deeper and longer recession.
Federal Reserve officials reaffirmed their commitment to combating inflation at their December meeting and indicated that interest rates could remain elevated for “some time” until there is clear evidence that consumer prices are falling.
Minutes from the U.S. central bank’s Dec. 13-14 meeting released on Wednesday showed that policymakers worried that investors and financial markets could misinterpret their decision to raise interest rates more slowly as a sign they were ending their campaign to bring prices under control. Fed officials said that the smaller rate hike – 50 basis points, compared to the previous four 75-basis-point increases – “was not an indication of any weakening” and warned of continued risks on the inflation front.
The minutes show that officials remain determined to hold rates high as long as needed in order to tame inflation, even if it means risking higher unemployment or slower economic growth.
“Participants generally observed that a restrictive policy stance would need to be maintained until the incoming data provided confidence that inflation was on a sustained downward path to 2 percent, which was likely to take some time,” the minutes said. “In view of the persistent and unacceptably high level of inflation, several participants commented that historical experience cautioned against prematurely loosening monetary policy.”
OBSERVATION – Expect no changes any time soon. Even a 50 point rate increase is out of the norms of past Fed responses to inflation. Remember too that the common assessment that it takes 3 – 6 months for a fed rate change to fully affect the economy means the initial 75 point increases are just starting to show their teeth.
Biden / Harris watch –
Biden is buddy-buddying up with McConnel over the support given to get the $1.7 trillion CR passed in the senate. This mammoth porkulus bill is one that even Godzilla cannot devour.
“I’m especially happy to be with my friend and colleague of many years, and I might add, longest-serving leader at the United States Senate, Senator Mitch McConnell. Mitch, it’s great to be with you,” Biden said while delivering a speech on the economy in Covington, Kentucky, in a rare appearance with McConnell.
The two leaders appeared at the site of a bridge due to receive funding from the package, spanning between Kentucky and Ohio, after riding in the same car together to the speaking event.
(snip) “Mitch… it wasn’t easy to get this done, and it wouldn’t have gotten done… without your hand, and I want to thank you for that!”
OBSERVATION – biden heaping praise on a republican – shows you how far the senate leadership has fallen.
CW2/Domestic violence –
Antifa supported violence against counter protestors of LGBT trans events are the biggest notes. However, these are local actions and not fully tracked up for nation wide violence.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Sixth round of voting yesterday and McCarthy is no closer to obtaining the chair. Rumors afoot that he has made significant concessions to opposition conservatives and that may swing enough votes in his favor
Meanwhile, republican infighting is getting vicious and there will be considerable animus between members for a long time to come. Could likely cancel out much of what the republicans could accomplish this term.
For example - Crenshaw (R-TX), called those who opposed McCarthy “terrorists”. NOTE – Crenshaw is a graduate of the WEF’s young leaders seminar – along with the likes of Canada’s Trudeau. In spite of using his military career to bolster is ‘conservative’ credentials, he has routinely voted with democrats on many issues.
There are even reports that some republicans are reaching out to democrats, offering them choice concessions of raising the debt ceiling and other issues. Many analysts look at that as being a none starter at this stage and would completely undercut stated republican goals before the current stalemate.
OBSERVATION – What little hope I placed in the republicans in the house have been shattered as it seems the eGOP branch wants the decimation of America. Remember, over 50 house republicans voted for the abominable LGBT ‘marriage’ act. Similar goes to house republicans who voted for the year long CR that effectively blocked the republican ‘controlled’ house from effecting budget controls for half (one year) of the term.
Cutting deals with the democrats would definitely hit republicans if they go that route. It would confirm what the hold-outs are indicating is the case – a status quo in the house and the republicans being demoted to a ‘democrat-lite’ party.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.
China and the Philippines have agreed to set up a direct communications channel on the South China Sea and to handle disputes over the contested waterway “through peaceful means”, according to a joint statement by the two countries.
The agreement on Thursday came a day after Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr met Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing amid efforts to mend a relationship that has been strained by Manila’s decision in 2016 to seek an arbitral ruling on China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea. The United Nations tribunal invalidated China’s claims, but Beijing has rejected the ruling.
OBSERVATION – China may be trying to head off or reduce the effect of renewed cooperation and security agreements between the Philippines and the US. Without a doubt, any agreement made will be canted to give China the most benefit and control they want in the region.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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Russia has deployed a frigate to the Atlantic Ocean armed with new generation hypersonic cruise missiles on Wednesday. In a video conference with Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Igor Krokhmal, commander of the frigate named “Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union Gorshkov”, Putin said the ship was armed with Zircon (Tsirkon) hypersonic weapons.
“This time the ship is equipped with the latest hypersonic missile system - ‘Zircon’,” said Putin. “I am sure that such powerful weapons will reliably protect Russia from potential external threats.”
OBSERVATION – A restatement of the nuclear threat by putin. Theoretically, the Zircon provides a pretty stout first strike capability. Any use by Russia would throw the world into a global nuclear conflict and decimate Russia.
Logistics –
- Rumors are circulating that Russia has been able to procure another 1700 Iranian drones. At the current use rate, this stockpile could last as long as May.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
No significant change in the level and locations of conflict. Combat on the ground has been largely controlled by winter weather conditions.
OUTLOOK ——
Continued status quo. Ukraine seems to be happy to maintain the defensive in the Bahkmut - Donetsk zone as it requires a smaller force and Russia hasn’t mustered the men and equipment necessary to swing the force ratio into their favor. As a result, Russia has continued to absorb heavy causalities.
With Russia working to get more Iranian drones, Ukraine’s defenses against them are improving to the extent that the Russian swarm attacks may no longer be able to effectively meet their goal of demoralizing the Ukrainian people. Ukraine success actually boosts the morale of the citizens.
Weather conditions are beginning to switch over to the low temperatures necessary for maneuver combat. Good news for Ukraine and bad for the poorly equipped Russians.
Belarus -
Belarusian Ministry of Defense confirmed efforts to build up the joint Belarus-Russian battlegroup. There have been other unconfirmed reports that Russia is planning on sending more troops to Belarus for both training as well as putting together a force that could once again threaten N Ukraine and Kyiv.
OBSERVATION - Within all this activity, Belarus has been very vocal towards NATO, emphasizing almost imminent invasion by NATO. This persistent ‘defensive’ type of talk indicates Belarus is still pretty well entrenched against marching into Ukraine along side Russian forces. Belarus military command is well aware that Russia has drained much of its war reserve of ammo and armor/tanks over the past 10 months of fighting – leaving very little reserve for any kind of Belarus expeditionary force incursion into Ukraine.
Assessment continues that Belarus will not enter the war in Ukraine.
SERBIA / KOSOVO -
Calls from the E.U. for Serbia to join in sanctions against Russia over its war in Ukraine were bluntly rejected by Serbia’s President Aleksandar Vucic on Wednesday. In an address to the nation, Vucic said the E.U. sanctions represent a “brutal” interference in Serbia’s internal affairs.
OBSERVATION – Serbia has applied for membership into the EU. However, its aggressive approach to N Kosovo and its alliance with Russia has soured that application to many in the EU.
Israel –
Israeli diplomats are working damage control following the visit to the temple mount by Israeli govt officials.
Turkey -
See Russia for talks with Russia.
Misc of Note –
Shortages of over the counter cold and flu medicines have deepened globally. This is in part due to a shortage of prescription cold/flu medicines. Shortages are being blamed on production problems and supply shortages. Many of these drugs are also produced in India and China – increasing uncertainties for supply.
OBSERVATION – If your family uses these kinds of OTC drugs, buy them when you see them – even if you don’t currently need them. Chances are when you do need them there will be none to find.
As long as Biden and his goons are running things people will be fearful.
Anniversary of the non-insurrection Jan 6 protests. Democrats holding their somber memorial today in rememberance.
Economy –
Utility companies warned federal lawmakers of a severe shortage of power transformers. According to Grid Assurance CEO Dave Rupert, large transformers have increased in price by 20% to 50% since 2020, and the time to procure new transformers has increased to as long as 39 months. American Public Power Association CEO Joy Ditto said the average price for distribution transformers has at least doubled, and the shortage caught utilities by surprise. According to Ditto, only a few domestic manufacturers make distribution transformers, and those manufacturers are dealing with constraints on labor, materials, and capacity. (FO)
OBSERVATION – This has been a problem for several decades now, and the recent vandalism of substations has highlighted this concern once again. Many large transformers are almost custom made – meaning even longer waits if one goes out. In the Before Years replacement, though slow, could be counted on – eventually. Today, reliance on China and other foreign countries critically jeopardizes replacement.
According to data from the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global, manufacturing in the U.S. shrank for the second month in a row in December 2022. ISM data showed a 10.4-point drop in their manufacturing index, the biggest drop since the Great Recession in 2008. The S&P Global manufacturing index hit its lowest level since May 2020. (FO)
OBSERVATION - A major contraction in manufacturing is an indicator of shrinking consumer demand and a strong sign of recession.
The survey of business establishments is likely to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 200,000 jobs last month after rising 263,000 in November, according to a Reuters poll of economists. That would be the smallest gain in two years.
However, job growth would far exceed the pace needed to keep up with growth in the working-age population, comfortably in the 150,000-300,000 range that economists associate with tight labor markets.
OBSERVATION – The fed will be looking closely at these numbers, likely to see them as a threat to its efforts to reduce inflation or see them as a sign that the rate increases are having the desired effect to cool the job market. One has to remember that the job market is just beginning to catch up to per-wuhan levels and doesn’t mark anything specifically ‘new’ beyond that. Only in the past month or so have service related positions - food industry for example – finally regained pre-wuhan levels.
The Biden administration signed off on Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) regulations to protect small streams, wetlands and waterways as part of the Clean Water Act, just before the end of 2022. The EPA signed off on the revised definition of “Waters of the United States” on Dec. 29 while the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers signed off on the revised definitions on Dec. 28.
The revised rules define what types of water bodies are protected under the Clean Water Act and were based on definitions that were put in place before 2015 during the Obama administration.
Congressman Doug LaMalfa, a Republican who represents California, is opposed to the regulations.
“Rural America doesn’t need yet another rule giving the federal government more power over farming and private property,” he said in a statement last week. “The federal government shouldn’t have jurisdiction to regulate puddles, ditches, seasonal creeks or culverts. All this rule does is make it more difficult to grow food or build anything.”
OBSERVATION – Basically reinstates the nonsensical rule that just about any mud puddle or surface trickle is now considered to be a ‘wetland’ under full protection of the US govt. This will have (and has in the past) serious detrimental impacts to to farmers, builders, and oil producers, who were concerned about feds regulating ravines and creeks on private property, like farms. For power hungry regulators, this is a jackpot. For the rest of Americans, an unmitigated disaster. The economic impacts will be significant - reduction in food and energy production for starters.
NOTE – personal experience . in cleaning up an environmental site that once was a military base, old building foundations that retained water were to be protected under these 0bama era regulations as ‘wet land’ because they found fairy shrimp in them. So puddles in old building foundations suddenly became ‘wetlands’ and ‘waters of the US’.
Invasion of Illegals –
In the confused jumble of words from biden speaking on the border crisis, he appears to be looking at reinstating rules set down by Trump that he reversed shortly after taking office.
Biden / Harris watch –
President Biden let it be known first thing yesterday morning that he would visit El Paso this coming Sunday. This is something that his designated border problem solver – harris – refuses to do.
“[S]ince August of last year, Customs and Border Patrol [it’s Customs and Border Protection] have seized more than 20,000 pounds of deadly fentanyl,” President Joe Biden said. “That’s enough to kill — kill as many as 1,000 people in this country. Twenty thousand pounds of fentanyl. It’s a killer. It’s a flat killer,” Biden said.
Biden is headed to Mexico City this weekend for Sunday’s North American Leaders Summit
OBSERVATION – Mexican state of Sinaloa erupted into near war yesterday with the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, Sinaloa Cartel leader and son of the notorious “El Chapo” Guzman. There is a significant chance that the cartel will attempt to disrupt this summit and even attempt to assassinate participants.
POLITICAL FRONT –
After failing to be elected after 11 votes, there are reports that the house republicans will “participate” in a conference call regarding another so called plan of reconciliation to get the votes needed for McCarthy elected speaker. There is not much optimism.
OBSERVATION – The conservatives want things in writing – not just his ‘word’. Further, the conference call format can control input of all parties involved.
As the standoff continues, more background on McCarthy is coming out. Rep. Kevin McCarthy revealed he had “dinner” with billionaire Klaus Schwab at the World Economic Forum in 2018 during remarks he made on a panel with Mitch McConnell’s wife, Elaine Chao, a shipping heiress of Chinese descent.
McCarthy attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland in 2018, the same year 45th President Donald Trump spoke to the elite group of wealthy businessmen, politicians, and journalists.
McCarthy is publicly listed as a member of the World Economic Forum on its website and the Internet archive suggests he has been affiliated with the elite body since at least January of 2016.
OBSERVATION – another WEF plant? Perhaps Rep Crenshaw could enlighten us further.
Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) has threatened to resign if the Republican party will negotiate with Democrats in voting to elect Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) as speaker. Gaetz announced his intentions to resign from Congress in an interview on Fox News Channel’s “The Ingraham Angle” Thursday night if he and other GOP patriots continued to refuse to back Kevin McCarthy’s speakership campaign.
OBSERVATION – kinda a stupid remark, I can see democrats crossing over just to get the mushy republican McCarthy elected and get Gaetz out of congress – a win, win for them.
China –
WAR WATCH – I am still monitoring for indicators that indicated that China may initiate a more coercive plan to force Taiwan into submission with a potential start of a potential blockade of the island during the Chinese New Years timeframe.
I’ve encountered no new indicators/contraindicators to report.
The U.S. Navy continued its Freedom of Navigation operations (FONOPS) in the Taiwan Straits Thursday. The Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer U.S.S. Chung-Hoon carried out the transit.
OBSERVATION – This is a relatively routine action but one that raises the hackles of China as it claims the strait in its entirety to be Chinese domain.
According to a Bloomberg report coming out of Taiwan, the government in Taipei is concerned over recent discoveries of Chinese spy rings inside Taiwan’s military. So far, Taiwan has detained three active-duty military officers and a retired air force officer on charges of espionage. A Colonel in charge of the Taiwanese military’s infantry training school was arrested late last year after authorities found documents indicating he had pledged to surrender his military unit when China invaded Taiwan. The spying problem is reportedly affecting the highest levels of Taiwan’s military and includes its former Vice Defense Minister. (FO)
OBSERVATON – Chinese infiltration into key operations, not just military, has been standard practice for many decades now. However, uncovering spies/collaborators in Taiwan’s military is hypercritical particularly since it is facing potential actions to force the island to surrender in the near future.
Japan –
During a press conference yesterday, a Defense Department spokesman said that Japan is the “cornerstone of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”
Russia -
WAR WATCH - Russia is now closing out its ninth month of the “three days to conquer Ukraine” since fighting starting on Feb 24th.
CURRENT ASSESSMENT
Russia is currently working to (re)assemble a military force capable of resuming the offensive in the Donbas while at the same time trying to make defensive preparations for an expected Ukranian offensive as well. Suspected goal for the start of offensive operations is latter half of January at the earliest.
At present, it is capable of very local offensive actions as in the ongoing fighting around Bakhmut and Donetsk.
Russia is also capable of launching more cruise/ballistic missile attacks directed against Ukrainian infrastructure -primarily its power grid, but massively reduced inventories of such missiles means these barrages will be further apart.
While Russia has nuclear capability, the probability is low that any will be used in the near future.
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A temporary unilateral Russian ceasefire ordered by Putin during Orthodox Christmas was due to have taken effect in Ukraine at 0900 GMT on Friday till 2100 GMT on Saturday. His announcement was not widely received favorably by either Ukraine who dismissed it as an empty gesture and an attempt to gain time to regroup its force and Russian milbloggers/nationalists who decried it as giving Ukraine time to resupply and reinforce defenses in Bakhmut and other objectives in the Donbas region.
There is further speculation that Russia will renege on the cease fire and continue attacks.
NOTE – Part of the putin narrative is that he is the champion of Christianity in Ukraine (and the rest of the world) – trying to build support for one of the reasons for the invasion.
RUMINT-
A Russian war analyst and reputed former loyalist to Vladimir Putin says that the fight to overthrow the Russian dictator has already started. Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has essentially begun publicly arguing for power, Strelkov says, while Sergei Shoigu and his clique work more quietly to compete.
The fight at the top of the Kremlin focuses on insurgent Putin crony Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner private army, and loyalist forces in the defence ministry around weakening defence minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Strelkov.
Others believe security apparatchiks around ex-FSB head Nikolai Patrushev – secretary of the powerful security council – are more likely to pull the trigger on Putin in a bid to save the elite ruling circle if the war continues to go wrong.
Some claim the security bloc is lining up his son Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev as the frontman for a coup replacing Putin if he is forced out by war setbacks or ill health.
‘The grouping of Yevgeny Prigozhin [head of Wagner private army] stands against grouping which includes Sergei Shoigu [Russian defence minister],’ said Strelkov, real name Igor Girkin, former defence minister of the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic.
Prigozhin/Shoigu feud is not new. When it became clear that Russian commanders had proven incompetent and military preparation a myth in the first weeks of the war, Shoigu reportedly was on his way out. Clearly, his base of power in the Kremlin is stronger than first thought, but his performance is every bit as bad as it has been all along.
OBSERVATION – A coup or death of putin will definitely put the current war in Ukraine into a different realm. Neither result would be good as some of the contenders are super war hawk/nationalist who could very well use nukes that putin has so far been holding back.
Kerch Bridge update – The Crimean bridge was struck almost three months ago and satellite imagery shows that workers are still repairing the damage.
Ukraine -
WEATHER FORECAST – Rain and snow letting up with increasing number of days that are below freezing. However, due to heat retention by soils, it will take a prolonged sub-freezing period to render the soils frozen enough for maneuver by tanks/armor.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More of the same, scattered artillery fire along the LOC in the south and east along with the daily Russian ground assaults along the Kreminna – Donetsk portion of the line.
There is no evidence that Ukraine will honor the Russian declared unilateral ceasefire during the Orthodox Christmas period.
US announced that that 50 US Bradley fighting vehicles will be delivered to Ukraine and troops trained in how to use them. Includes hundreds of TOW rounds. This along with other modern Western armored vehicles / tanks that are being sent instead of left over Russian designed vehicles left over from the cold war. Germany will provide Marder infantry fighting vehicles to Ukraine️. Germany also join the U.S. in supplying an additional Patriot air defense battery
OUTLOOK ——
A continuation of the current status quo. If rumblings from Russian milbloggers is true, Russian has been losing ground in the Bakhmut area and the Russian offensive there is petering out.
The unilateral ceasefire by putin is worth monitoring to see if he keeps his word or launches more attacks. Ukraine OTOH, may be able to seize the moment if Russia foolishly clusters troops together for ‘celebrations’ and Mr HIMARS pay a visit.
Belarus -
A Defense Department spokesman said yesterday that the DOD is seeing “no indications” that Russia intends to use forces stationed in the joint Belarus-Russia battlegroup in another front in the Ukraine war.
Russia is shipping some equipment into Belarus with at least 50 more units of Russian military equipment were transferred to Belarus from Russia in recent days.
Belarusian MoD reported that another echelon with military equipment of the Russian Armed Forces had arrived in Belarus. Many trucks are marked with the identification symbol “Z”. included about 43 KamAZ and Ural trucks, BAZ-6306, 5 fuel trucks, 2 ZU-23-2, field kitchens and water barrels. One of the vehicles had license plates with the 44th region of Russia – the Western Military District.
OBSERVATION – The equipment shipped have mostly been cargo trucks and the like. Very little in the way of tanks or APCs. Russia has the capability to fall in on existing Belarus equipment, provided they allow it. But the items being brought in are no where near the same as was deployed there a year ago in advance of the start of the war.
Belarusian border guards accuse Ukraine of provocative actions on the border, saying Ukrainians behave aggressively, pointing guns at them and verbally insults them.
Israel –
The United States is expected to join other countries condemning Israel at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meeting Thursday that is convening to discuss the brief visit of a Jewish minister to the Temple Mount earlier this week.
RELATED - Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) on Wednesday attacked the Biden administration’s “pathological obsession” with undermining Israel was endangering U.S. national security, following the U.S.’ condemnation of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s visit to the Temple Mount. The Biden administration has “consistently sought to undermine Israel’s security and sovereignty over its territory,”
OBSERVATION – More evidence that the biden regime is moving towards positions against Israel, moves that may force it to consider taking actions on its own without Washington support.
Iran –
Iranian regime officials and entities are endorsing an expansive, collective-punishment model to implement mandatory veiling laws as anti-regime demonstrations enter their fourth consecutive month in Iran.
Mexico -
Culiacán Mexico was described as a war zone yesterday following the arrest of Ovidio Guzman, son of el Chapo. Sinaloa Cartel sicarios almost immediately began blocking roads into Culiacán and launched an assault on the airport in an effort try to free him from custody. Mexico reaponsed by deploying military forces to the region and even used helicopter gun ships to battle the sicarios. Releated fighting besides in Culiacan broke out in Mazatlán, Navolato, Badiraguato and Los Mochis. Nayarit, Sinaloa reporting sicarios blockade as well.
This morning the Mexican military reported 10 mexican military dead and 35 injured. 19 cartel sicarios dead. These numbers will likely rise. Sporatic fighting was still being reported.
During yesterday’s battle in Culiacán, there was total anarchy with widespread looting seen across the city.
OBSERVATION – Sinaloa province is a narrow strip of land along the gulf of Baja. Ovidio Guzman has been wanted for quite some time. I’ve not seen any reports on his current whereabouts, some suspect he has been extradited to the US. This is the kind of stuff that awaits the US and the control over the border breaks down.
ALSO NOTE- Sunday’s North American Leaders Summit could be at risk of an attack of some sort.
Black Swans -
A major solar flare measuring X1.2 at its peak erupted from Active Region 3182 at 00:57 UTC on January 6, 2023. This sunspot group just came around the edge of the sun and hasn’t yet positioned itself for a direct shot at earth. It will be in position in the coming days. A X1.2 is a big flare/CME, but I look at things in the X15 range and above. X15 shut down the Quebec power grid a several of decades ago and the famous Carrington event was something like an X45. Eyes are monitoring this closely.