Economy –
Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan said his bank is now projecting a mild recession starting in the first quarter of 2024.
OBSERVATION - BoA pushing hopium? After how last year ended, I am surprised that we are this far into 2023 without the full expression of the recession. Many economists had predicted it to be in effect by now.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The social welfare class in America continues to see illegals usurp their priority to govt goods and services, increasing tensions between them.
Antifa has turned out to support some gay/transgender events, but in most cases have found themselves to be outnumbered by the other side.
Protest activity is still present in the Atlanta area over the new law enforcement training facility. Group “Stop Cop City” having continual protests and more reports of booby traps in public areas surrounding the facility.
POLITICAL FRONT –
(fox) House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer said Monday he will begin the process of holding FBI Director Christopher Wray in contempt of Congress, despite viewing and being briefed by bureau officials on the subpoenaed document that alleges President Joe Biden was involved in a criminal bribery scheme.
The FBI brought the document in question – an FBI-generated FD-1023 form that allegedly describes a $5 million criminal scheme involving then-Vice President Joe Biden and a foreign national relating to the exchange of money for policy decisions – to Capitol Hill on Monday for Comer, R-Ky., and ranking member Jamie Raskin, D-Md., to review in a secure SCIF (sensitive compartmented information facility), resulting from a back-and-forth between committee Republicans and the bureau over whether it was in compliance of his subpoena. The FBI initially offered to allow Comer to review the document at FBI headquarters, but amid Comer’s threats to hold Wray in contempt of Congress, the bureau offered additional accommodations to bring the physical document to Capitol Hill.
Despite the accommodation, Comer said Monday that the FBI is still not in compliance with the subpoena to turn over the physical document to the committee.
“At the briefing, the FBI again refused to hand over the unclassified record to the custody of the House Oversight Committee,” Comer said in a statement. “And we will now initiate contempt of Congress hearings this Thursday.”
OBSERVATION - Reviewing an UNCLASSIFIED document in a SCIF is extreme. Some FBI claims the higher security is necessary to protect the document as it is reportedly involved in with an investigation into Biden. Either case, congress is well within its rights to press contempt of congress charges against Wray.
Illegal Immigration –
A couple dozen illegals were dropped off in Sacramento CA and it causes newscum to go into a frothing conniption.
The great ‘flood’ of illegals still has’t materialized, although illegal entry has increased over past rates.
North/South Korea –
The influential sister of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un vowed on Sunday to push for a second attempt to launch a spy satellite as she lambasted a U.N. Security Council meeting over the North’s first, failed launch.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
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The Russian Ministry of Defense announced a major exercise in the Pacific Fleet starting on June 5th, just weeks after a major snap exercise. From June 5th to the 20th, they will conduct an exercise involving 60 combatant and auxiliary ships, 35 naval aviation aircraft, and more than 11,000 troops.
OBSERVATION - Could be a do over for commanders following the recent snap alert/deployments.
RUMINT-
The Russian MoD says that Ukraine began a large-scale offensive in the South Donetsk direction yesterday. Russia claims to have destroyed dozens of tanks and APCs along with killing thousands of Ukrainian troops.
NOTE - Russian MoD reports like this have always been way, way overblown, so I wouldn’t give it much credibility.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Remember, at this stage of the fight, much of what is being reported by either side is exaggerated or false reports. Pro - and Con- of any Ukrainian action should be viewed as a battle in the information sphere (propaganda) and that it shouldn’t be held as valid information. Once the offensive kicks off, much more verifiable information will become available.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
A number of reports out there that the Ukrainian offensive has begun. See OUTLOOK below on what this is based on.
However, the destruction of the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam and Power Plant in Kherson Oblast, has taken over reporting overnight. It appears that Russian forces (who controlled the dam) set off explosives at the power plant and the eastern half of the spillway, causing a breach in the dam and releasing a massive flood down stream. Photos show 300+ meters of the dam taken out. Russia denies the allegation and blames Ukraine.
Kakhovka HPP is the sixth (lower and last) stage of the cascade of Dnieper hydroelectric power plants, located five kilometers from the city of Nova Kakhovka, Kherson region. The loss of the Kakhovka water reservoir will create enormous challenge for the upstream Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Enerhodar as waters flowing now down the river were used to cool down the reactors
However, destroying the dam is a two edged sword as Crimean Canal, long disputed water supply to Crimea, is now lost with the dam. Flood mapping indicates that most of the severe flooding impact will be on the left bank of the river, causing much of the Russian defensive positions on the east bank of the Dniper River are also being flooded.
Before destroying the Kakhovka dam today, the Russians raised the water level to a record-high 17.5 meters by keeping the gates closed. (1.5 m higher than normal levels in the 16 meter range). FYI water level stages are based on elevation above sea level. The purpose would be to make the flooding as large as possible in order to stop the Ukrainian Army from conducting a counteroffensive in the area.
This is not the first time Russia has done something like this in war. On August 18, 1941, the Russians used 20 tons of explosives to blow up the Dnipro Hydroelectric Station dam, trying to hinder a German offensive. That action cost the lives of tens of thousands of Ukrainians.
Final note on the loss of Kakhovka dam, flooding assessments were conducted/reported after the Russian explosion from the west side of the Dniper River. There was some rumblings at that time Russia may do something like this. Ongoing flooding is matching computer projected impacts. Those impacts show it was a very dumb thing for Russia to do and as tied up / lost a substantial amount of forces trapped by those same flood waters.
Many around the globe are decrying this act as a war crime. Many Ukrainians in occupied Kherson will die. Russian soldiers in the flood zone will likely suffer the same fate.
In other overnight news, Ukrainian air defense shot down 35 of 35 Kh-101/Kh-555 missiles, launched by Russia overnight. This is the 5th consecutive day of such attacks.
Donetsk Front ——
Ukraine’s Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar says Ukrainian troops have made significant advances north and south of Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, on 5 June.
Crimean front ———
Russian base was hit in Novooleksiivka of Kherson region this morning
OUTLOOK –
While the Russian blogsphere is going crazy with every Ukrainian attack being “the” offensive, it is just a sign of how jittery the Russians are. What is likely happening are light mech/motorized units conducting reconnaissance in force, feints, rear area activities and other actions aimed at preparing a larger movement for success. The actual offensive is close, within days, based on these actions.
The Kakhovka dam disaster will force the Ukrainian govt to divert some of its attention to the disaster but is unlikely to impact the offensive, in fact may help motivate Ukrainian soldiers even more.. As most of the destruction is on the Russian side the river, there is little Ukraine can do to affect disaster relief. Russia has been very paranoid about Ukrainian amphibious assaults. Ukraine however doesn’t have the assets to force such an operation, thus with the dam intact that Russian flank was secure. The threat the dam held was as a crossing point for Ukrainian units.
Anyway, the breach of the dam was deliberate, but may turn and bit the Russian forces with large personnel and equipment losses.
Overwhelming news surrounding the dam disaster may actually assist Ukraine from an OPSEC level - diverting attention from their maneuvering in preparation for the offensive.
Belarus -
There are still no signs of preparations for a military operation against Ukraine from the territory of Belarus.
Pakistan –
: Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan is seen as the front runner in upcoming (sometime in late 2023) national elections. Khan wants to make the military subordinate to the elected government and keep it that way. The Pakistan military considers this unacceptable.
Khan was removed from power on corruption charges over a year ago and has since lead substantial grass roots protests against the current govt. Those protests nearly started a civil war.
OBSERVATION - As a nuclear power, great concern continues over those nukes getting into the wrong hands.
Iran –
The IRGC is deploying artillery and other materiel to Iran’s northwest border with Iraq. This action suggest to some that the IRGC may engage in a short-term military conflict to confront perceived Israeli threats from Iraqi Kurdistan.
OBSERVATION - The nature of these ‘threats’ may actually be kurdish opposition to Iranian rule. Slapping the term “israeli” is just a cover excuse. Last year’s protests were the largest and strongest in Iranian regions with a high Kurdish component and Iran accused Iraq of sheltering dissident leaders in Iraq.
Mexico -
Recent elections in Mexico has seen the leftist Morena party, winning the governorship of the state of Mexico, which surrounds Mexico City. Morena now holds 21 out of 32 state governorships as the leftist party has come to dominate Mexican politics.
OBSERVATION - A leftist Mexican govt is seen as a greater threat as it would facilitate illegal passage into the US. With much of Central and South America moving left as well, it is a further sign that US influence is waning and that Chinese influence is on the ascendency.
What a World, Godzilla. What a world. Still here reading your reports daily. Thank you.
Economy –
Deutsche Bank analysts say they expect the U.S. recession to begin in the fourth quarter of this year. They forecast a 1.25% drop in GDP over three quarters, which would be milder than the average recession.
Meanwhile - The World Bank is scheduled to release a report Tuesday warning that the global economy is slowing dramatically as higher interest rates take a toll on both advanced and developing economies. Overall, global growth is projected to slump to an anemic 2.1 percent annual rate this year, down from 3.1 percent in 2022, and will remain “frail” through next year, according to the bank’s latest forecast.
Investors now are focused on how much more work the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank must do to stem inflation, which has declined from last year’s highs but remains elevated.
Fed officials have signaled they may pause at next week’s meeting after lifting their benchmark lending rate over the past 14 months at the fastest pace in four decades. European policymakers are expected to increase the euro zone’s key rate by a quarter percentage point when they meet next week.
The world’s economies have interwoven together over years, to the point where if something happens to one country, it splashes over to other parts of the globe. Is the Fed’s economic model robust enough to factor in the on-edge domestic and corporate building busts on going? How well does it factor an economy still rebuilding form the wuhan plandemic shutdowns, etc. I guess we’ll see as this summer turns into fall.
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Potential strike looms for UPS in the July timeframe. The 24 million packages UPS ships on an average day amounts to about a quarter of all U.S. parcel volume, according to the global shipping and logistics firm Pitney Bowes, or as UPS puts it, the equivalent of about 6% of nation’s gross domestic product.
OBSERVATION - In short, a potential new supply chain blockage that would take months to sort out at the end of the strike.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
The Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC), an organization that frequently lists mainstream conservatives alongside hate groups like the Ku Klux Klan, has placed Moms for Liberty and other parental rights group on its “hate map” for being “antigovernment extremist groups.”
Florida-based Moms for Liberty was added to SPLC’s hate map along with 11 other parental rights groups, including several Virginia-based groups, according to the organization’s annual 2022 Year in Hate and Extremism report.
The inclusion of these 12 parental rights groups brings the SPLC’s total number of hate and antigovernment extremist groups to 1,225 organizations. Of those, 523 were “hate groups,” and 702 were deemed “antigovernment extremist groups,” which the parental rights groups fell under.
OBSERVATION - The SPLC is the touchstone source of leftists to justify their targeting of Americans. This move parallels similar by the DHS/FBI to consider similar groups/individuals to be ‘domestic terrorists’. Thus when the big govt crackdown occurs they have a list justifying the mass arrests. This is all part of ‘battlefield preparation’ for the coming tyranny of the US govt.
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Armenian-American men fought against Antifa & far-left protesters outside the Glendale (CA) school board meeting yesterday. Immigrant families have been furious that elementary schools are doing pride events. Antifa have gathered to oppose the parents.
OBSERVATION - This is the second encounter between the Armenians and Antifa - and both times the Armenians handed Antifa their arses.
Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Space Force is set to launch a constellation of satellites this summer to track Chinese or Russian space vehicles that can potentially disable or damage orbiting objects, the latest step in the burgeoning extra-terrestrial contest between superpowers.
Dubbed “Silent Barker,” the network would be the first of its kind to complement ground-based sensors and low-earth orbit satellites, according to the Space Force and analysts. The satellites will be placed about 22,000 miles (35,400 kilometers) above the Earth and at the same speed it rotates, known as geosynchronous orbit.
“This capability enables indications and warnings of threats” against high-value US systems and will “provide capabilities to search, detect, and track objects from space for timely threat detection,” the Space Force, which is developing the satellites with the National Reconnaissance Office, said in a statement.
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Germany is set to host NATO’s largest air force deployment over Europe in the alliance’s history, officials said on Wednesday.
The Air Defender 23 exercise is scheduled to start on Monday. It will involve 10,000 participants and 250 aircraft from 25 countries.
The drills are designed to simulate a response to an attack on a NATO member country.
The US will send 100 aircraft and 2,000 personnel to take part in the exercise.
OBSERVATION - Hard not to see this exercise in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Illegal Immigration –
On Monday, Democrat New York City Mayor Eric Adams proposed the idea of paying New Yorkers to house migrants in their private residences as the city continues to find homes for thousands of asylum seekers. Adams acknowledged that there would need to be a workaround for the state’s “30 day rule,” in order for his plan to work. The rule requires a guest to be “living in a residence for 30 days before they can legally become a tenant,” after which it can be much harder to evict a person.
OBSERVATION - Some see part of this vision to include a lottery system to mandate which private residences would be forced to house illegals. I think there are enough red flags here to see how this will degenerate into domestic chaos.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated June 6, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing in Ukraine with some attempts at preemptive assaults in the east. In the face of increased Ukrainian probing attacks, Russia has yielded some large amounts of terrain.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles and Iranian made Shahed drones show evidence of massively reduced inventories of such missiles. Recent multi-way attacks on Kyiv resulted in most of the missiles/drones (well over 90%) being shot down and very few reaching a target.
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Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures with highs in the 70’s and 80’s. predominantly dry throughout the forecast period.
RUMINT –
Pending validation - horrific if true
Ukrainian troops witnessed Russian soldiers being swept up in flood waters and fleeing the east bank of the Dnipro River after the collapse of the Nova Khakovka dam. Many Russian troops were killed or wounded in the chaos, an officer in Ukraine’s armed forces says - CNN
Ukrainian journalist from Nova Kakhovka Oleg Baturin said that inside basements of captured police offices in the city were Ukrainian kidnapped civilians.
He is not sure Russians evacuated them from there.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Areas downstream of Kakhovka are a mess and will continue to be for many, many years. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has said hundreds of thousands of people have been left without drinking water and tens of thousands are still stranded by floodwaters - after the Kakhovka dam in the Russian-occupied town of Nova Kakhovka was breached on Tuesday morning. With rising water levels the Russian military is reportedly not allowing civilian population to evacuate flooded areas. And Russia continues to shell areas of Kherson- reducing the ability to rescue citizens on the north bank of the Dniper River.
Meanwhile - rumblings about the Ukraine offensive continue, but with somewhat less intensity of recent days. Continued Ukraine probes and feints on the LOC and deep strikes continue to make Russia jumpy.
Kharkiv Front -
Most of the southern Russian pincer around Bakhmut has been captured by Ukraine forces.
Donetsk Front ——
Explosions reported in Melitopol.
Russian forces continued to try to push westward along highway H-15, west of Donetsk.
Zaporizhizhia Front ———
Yakymivsyky district: In the area of Peremozhne and Annovka villages, the occupying forces blew up chain of ponds, having previously filled them with water to the maximum. The road to Kherson, fields with plantations are completely flooded
Crimean front ———
Head of occupation authorities of Crimea says Crimea has enough water reserves, so destruction of Kakhovka dam is not critical.
NOTE - Crimea as gone for years without this supply, but i will impact life in Crimea due water restrictions.
OUTLOOK –
The flooding caused by the destruction of the Kakhovka dam continue to dominate news out of Ukraine - combined with strong OPSEC keeps the exact nature of Ukraine’s plans pretty well obscured from public view. I expect these probing attack/reconnaissance in force operations for a few more days and then the big one hits. These attacks a similar to moves a wrestler makes, selectively pushing his opponent then suddenly pulling when the opponent is expecting a push.
Iran –
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) unveiled the “Fattah,” the regime’s first hypersonic missile, on Tuesday morning, Iranian state media announced. According to Iranian media, the Fattah hypersonic missile has a range of 1,400 kilometers and hits speeds of Mach 13-15. The reports claimed that the missile is able to bypass and destroy air defense systems.
OBSERVATION - The thing to note here is the claim of maneuverability. All ballistic missiles are in essence “hypersonic”. This development - should it go into deployment mode, may force Israel to strike the Iranian nuclear program sooner rather than later.