July is ending - where has this year gone?
Globalism / Great Reset –
John Kerry, US climate “czar” states that the destruction of the farming industry is essential to achieving ‘Net Zero’:
“Agriculture contributes about 33% of all the emissions of the world. And we can’t get to net zero—we don’t get this job done—unless agriculture is front and centre as part of the solution.”
“You just can’t continue to both warm the planet, while also expecting to feed it. It doesn’t work. So we have to reduce emissions from the food system.”
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted time and again the attacks by the globalists on our agricultural industry. Most prominently against the cattle industry but they have been spreading towards the rest of the agriculture community. Kerry is essentially telling us to drop dead. Irony here is the fortune Kerry is tied into is based agriculture.
**
Biden appears to be facing increasing demands to declare a climate emergency, like the one declared for the COVID-19 pandemic that had a devastating impact on the country, warns a top advocate for the U.S. oil and gas industry?
“They’re leaning to that direction,” U.S. Oil and Gas Association President Tim Stewart recently told Just the News. “If you grant the president’s emergency powers to declare a climate emergency, it’s just like COVID.”
Stewart also said such a declaration would give the president “vast and unchecked authority to shut down everything from communications to infrastructure.”
He said infrastructure would include water and electricity, and that Biden also could freeze assets under such a declaration.
Oregon Rep. Earl Blumenauer recently introduced legislation to require Biden to make such a declaration that also was co-sponsored by 62 congressional Democrats.
OBSERVATION - Didn’t I just rant about a forced global warming “emergency” and wuhan styled shut downs? Not conspiracy tails folks, but a real effort by the globalists to force their agenda.
OF SPECIAL NOTE - This seems to be a move to start using the club. Psychological moving of the sheeple on the scare of global climate disaster just isn’t moving the needle - it hardly gets any measurement in polls coverning the concerns of Americans. So next will be the use of the club.
Economy –
Trucking giant Yellow collapsed on Sunday, ceasing operations immediately and leaving some 30,000 workers without jobs.
The closure is the biggest in terms of jobs and revenue in the U.S. trucking industry. The company, which received $700 million in federal COVID relief funds in 2020, is preparing to file for bankruptcy and is in talks to sell off all or parts of the business. The nearly 100-year-old firm is known for its competitive pricing and has more than 12,000 trucks shipping freight across the US for brands including Walmart and Home Depot.
Yellow’s subsidiaries may be GONE too:
YRC Freight reflects the Yellow Transportation (founded in 1924 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma) purchase of and subsequent merger with Roadway (founded in 1930 in Akron, Ohio).
YRC Freight is the largest subsidiary of Yellow with corporate headquarters in Overland Park, Kan.
Other Yellow subsidiaries include Reddaway, Holland and New Penn.
OBSERVATION - biden et al like to beat their chest and try to sell us a *(%$ sandwich that our economy is doing the best ever. The trucking industry is one sector that can be used to measure just how well the economy is. Health economy keeps trucking busy and trucks on the road. biden’s disastrous petroleum policies with sky high diesel prices combined with wuhan lock down aftershocks and now reduced economic activity is cutting things to the quick. Loss of trucking assets will further hinder any post-recession economic growth. Factories won’t get raw materials or parts. They also won’t be able to ship finished products out. This is the start of Supply Chain 2.0 failures.
**
Automaker Ford estimates its electric vehicle division will lose $4.5 billion this year, $1.5 billion more than it predicted in March.
Fortune said Ford’s revised forecast comes from a sluggish receptiveness by consumers to the new battery-powered vehicles.
So far this year, Ford’s EV division has shed nearly $1.8 billion, Fortune reported.
OBSERVATION - Ford stood alone in rejecting bailouts under 0bama, and thrived because of it. Times have changed as well as company leadership and they tossed their hat into the total electric ring. Now they are facing the bite that the consumer market isn’t thrilled with electrics and that sentiment isn’t likely to change any time soon as citizens are souring to the incessant rant of the green marxists to kill petroleum. Ford isn’t alone, other carmakers are facing similar losses. Ford’s is the most dramatic as it was in a good position economically before falling for the electric boondoggle.
**
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods projected high oil demand in the second half of 2023.
OBSERVATION - Oil demand traditionally drops in the face of a recession. These projections provide support to the view some have that the recession will not hit until 2024.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
In the state of Illinois, illegals can now become police officers. People who are breaking the law by their presence here can now arrest American citizens.
OBSERVATION - The passage of this law, as well as similar passed by different levels of blue dominated cities thru states will face stiff constitutional challenges. But to now essentially militarize illegals who have no allegiance to the American Constitution or culture is just going to inflame matters. Already saw that with a Somali police officer in Minnesota who shot and killed a victim in cold blood a few years ago. Illegals as police will give the leftists an army ready to violate the rights of Americans at will.
Terrorism -
Officials are still sorting out the illegal bio lab found in kalifornia and its implications remain shocking with the amount of disease samples being found.
POLITICAL FRONT –
The DOJ was trying to arrest Devon Archer ahead of his bombshell testimony Monday about Joe Biden’s involvement in his son Hunter’s Ukraine business when he was VP. US attorney in the SDNY Damian Williams issued a menacing letter Saturday - telling Judge Abrams to order Archer to go to jail immediately to serve a one year sentence for his fraud conviction.
The weaponized DOJ now “clarifies” they won’t try to prevent Devon Archer from testifying tomorrow.
Devon Archer, served on the board of Ukrainian energy company Burisma with Hunter Biden and knows where all the bodies are. His testimony could potentially make a direct connection between Hunter Biden’s overseas, potentially illegal, business dealings with President Biden.
OBSERVATION - This action over the weekend smells incredibly that of desperation. The essentially lawless attempt to prevent testimony to congress should remove the veil for all to see the corruption of the DoJ and the biden administration for such a blatant attempt to silence those willing to testify about the biden criminal ring. One big question is whether or not Archer sees the effort as a warning to “Epstine” him - coercing silence.
**
Trump is suddenly facing more charges over his alleged retention of ‘classified’ documents. Many see the timing as an effort to divert attention from hunter’s legal adventures.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains of vacation. . . . .
China –
China’s factory activity contracted for a fourth consecutive month in July, while non-manufacturing activity slowed to its weakest this year as the world’s second-largest economy struggles to revive growth momentum in the wake of soft global demand.
The official manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came in at 49.3 in July — compared with 49.0 in June, 48.8 in May and 49.2 in April — according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics released on Monday. July’s reading was slightly better than the 49.2 median forecast in a Reuters poll.
Monday’s figures also showed China posting its weakest official non-manufacturing PMI reading this year, coming in at 51.5 in July — compared with 53.2 in June, 54.5 in May and 56.4 in April. A PMI reading above 50 points to an expansion in activity, while a reading below that level suggests a contraction.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/31/china-manufacturing-pmi-july-2023.html
OBSERVATION - I’ve been noting China’s economic woes that Xi has been working to keep off the radar. OPEC+ had earlier this year based its production numbers on the anticipation that the Chinese economy would finally take off again. Clearly it hasn’t due to demand that is still lacking coming out of wuhan.
North/South Korea –
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, in a meeting with the Chinese Politburo delegation visiting Pyongyang, vowed to develop the two countries’ relations to a “new high.” The delegation was in North Korea to celebrate the Korean War armistice.
OBSERVATION - With the end of the global wuhan plandemic, NK is struggling to find more economic support to bolster its flagging economy and fund its aggressive military programs - especially in the nuclear and ballistic missile realm. NK has historically been a parasite to China as well as its tool for many, many years now and with rising tensions towards the west, China may see NK and Kim as useful fools to dilute Western attentions.
Japan –
Japanese defense officials warned the international community is facing its greatest post-war trial and has entered a new era of crisis. At the same time, Tokyo identified China, Russia and North Korea as the countries that pose a threat to Japan, according to the “Defense of Japan 2023” white paper.
The release follows the latest revisions to the national defense strategies that call for Japan’s need to possess a counterattack capability, increased defense spending and a procurement plan and the build-up of military capabilities.
In the white paper’s preface, Japan Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada said that the international community was facing its greatest post-war trial since World War II, and the world has entered a new era of crisis, including Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Yesterday, 3 civilian ships seem to have successfully challenged Russian threats to Black Sea navigation. Ams1, Sahin 2 and Yilmaz Kaptan sailed direct routes, openly advertising destination Ukraine over AIS. Their origins: Israel, Greece and Turkey/Georgia
Kerch Bridge update –
The Kerch bridge is being fenced off with anti naval drone barriers to prevent another seaborne attack from Ukraine drones.
Economic Impact –
The Russian ruble has lost 50% of its value over the past year.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
More information on recent actions along the southern and eastern fronts has trickled out. Most significant confirms the gains inferred to recently by Ukraine in the south as well as the probable collapse of the Russian attempted counteroffensive in the east. One of the biggest things being noted and I had to back to some of the posted videos was the glaring lack of Russian artillery in the Velyka Novosilka Axis as Ukraine forces reached and likely have breached the Russian line of defense.
The Deep State Telegram channel says that Ukrainian forces have retaken terrain on the Svatove front after a Russian advance last week. RUMINT in Svatove, that bodies of Russian dead have not been taken away from the overflowing morgue for a week. The stink of death hangs over the city.
Saudi Arabia offereing to host peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. See Saudi Arabia below.
Velyka Novosilka Axis-
Russian channels saying Ukrainian Armed Forces has continued forward, taking control of the town of Urozhaine, decimating Russians with cluster bombs, artillery and air support. If true, Ukrainian troops are now a 21 hour walk to the Mariupol.
Partisan Resistance ——
Ukrainian partisans blew up a Russian military engineering facility in occupied Mariupol, with many Russian soldiers inside. The facility was used to construct anti-tank dragon’s teeth among other things. - report by Ukraine’s Center for National Resistance
OUTLOOK –
With OPSEC still tight, it appears Russia had a very bad week last week. Top of the list appears to be the loss of the effectiveness of minefields and lack of artillery to slow the Ukraine forces down. As i’ve noted above much of these appear to be largely gone or greatly degraded.
More bad news for Russia is its apparent failed counter offensive in the Kharkiv / Svatov region with Ukraine regaining the ground initially lost. Russia’s commitment of precious resources to stage such an offensive now has placed its defense against Ukraine in the south and in the Bakhmut region at greater risk.
Ukraine continues to hammer Russian logistics and that is becoming increasing apparent on the front lines. Russia is ill prepared to adjust its operations and front line troops are increasingly unsupported. Apparent gains along the Tokmak and Velyka Novosilka lines appear to have further out maneuvered Russian forces, greatly increasing their loss of support from the rear.
In the Bakhmut region, Ukraine killer drones continue to swarm the few roads available to haul supples to the increasingly surrounded Russian forces, making resupply runs more of a death race than anything else. What the killer drones may miss, drone adjusted artillery takes care of the rest.
NOTE - There are references to Russian “dragon teeth” anti armor defenses that line the main line of defense. These concrete pyramids are essentially hollow and are not anchored together. For anyone who’s visited the German Siegfried Line, system of pillboxes and strongpoints built along the German western frontier in the 1930s and greatly expanded in 1944, the dragon’s teeth there are solid and tied into an underground grid of reinforced concrete making them virtually impossible to push aside unlike the Russian doppelgängers.
Poland –
Polish officials report that the country’s border guards are being attacked on a daily basis by Belarus assailants who are using equipment provided by Wagner .
OBSERVATION - Polish hype concerning Wagner and potential threats are reaching new heights. The risk is that a provocation is being developed to have Poland strike Belarus militarily so that Russian could then justify direct attacks. Poland has been a key supply and support site for NATO support to Ukraine. That Russian attack will certainly bring Poland and likely the Baltic Nations and Romania immediately into the fight. A frightening expansion of the war then would develop with the activation of Article 5 bringing the rest of NATO into direct conflict.
ONE ADDITIONAL NOTE - Prior to the start of the Ukraine war, Poland came very close to a war with Belarus over its support of moving migrants into the country. This resulted in Poland construction its fence and Belarus backed down considerably from its support of illegal trafficking into Poland. Now the threat of illegals pouring back into Poland (as a gateway into the rest of Europe) is in the forefront combined with Wagner military threats.
Saudi Arabia –
Officials from the Saudi Arabia told reporters that they will soon be hosting a peace summit on behalf of Ukraine with representatives from a diverse group of nations in attendance.
Those taking part in the summit will include Ukraine, as well as Brazil, India, South Africa and several other countries, the official said. A high-level official from U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration also is expected to attend, the official said.
OBSERVATION - Interesting move, except that russia has stated it will not take part in the summit.
Syria -
Russia claimed MQ-9 of the U.S. anti-terrorist coalition on the morning of July 30 dangerously approached an Su-34 aircraft of the at a distance of less than 100 meters.
OBSERVATION - HILARIOUS, but Russia is in cahoots with Iran and Syria in an effort to force the US out of eastern Syria.
Misc of Note –
Panic buying of rice due to India ceasing export has hit the US. Rice, for those in the preparedness community is one of the staples of long term food storage. May I offer an alternative - millet. Yes, the wonderful seed often fed to pet birds is an excellent substitute for rice. It is more affordable, and has much higher nutritional value than rice all the while providing the same, dependable long term storage. It cooks up just like rice and has a mild nutty flavor. Source like Winco make it possible to obtain it in 25 lb bulk bags.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Schuab’s daughter is on record stating climate shutdown were going to happen whether we like it or not.
OBSERVATION - Our benevolent overlords have spoken.
**
“’Presented as a measure to protect Australians from false, misleading or deceptive information, or from information intended to cause serious harm, the bill actually is ‘a dangerous attempt to gain control and limit our freedom,’ according to Michelle Pearse, CEO of the Australian Christian Lobby.” the report explained.
The measure is “especially dangerous for Christians who want to express an alternate view to woke culture on gender and sexuality and for those who want to speak out against abortion,” she said.
“The bill is based on providing the media watchdog, the Australian Communications and Media Authority, with the power to strictly regulate what they interpret as harmful information and expression on online platforms like social media,” Pearse told Decision.
OBSERVATION - Australia (as well as many other countries) are serving as the ‘beta’ test zones for WEF inspired policies - chief of which is the control of free speech and thought. The outcome from the wuhan plandemic has demonstrated that the most effective voices must be silenced. Arguments counter to the narrative have to be stopped. The momentum is also growing to criminalize those who ‘spread’ misinformation via fines and even prison time. How dare we challenge our global overlords.
Economy –
A new CBS News/YouGov poll found that a majority 65 percent of Americans view the economy as “bad.” Specifically, the survey of 2,181 U.S. adult residents revealed that 61 percent described the economy as “struggling;” 56 percent said “uncertain;” 36 percent said “unfair;” and 27 percent said “punishing.” What’s even more damning is that a majority of the respondents placed either “a great deal” (44 percent) or some (36 percent) of the blame on Biden’s disastrous economic policies.
OBSERVATION - So far the regime’s efforts to put lipstick on the pig that is our economy hasn’t worked, as the people out there actually paying the bills see reality versus the entitled class within the DC beltway.
**
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago president Austan Goolsbee said Monday that he hasn’t made up his mind about whether to raise interest rates or stop hiking at the Fed’s next policy meeting in September, emphasizing that “nothing is off the table.”
The Fed’s goal, he said during an interview on Yahoo! Finance Live (video above), is to “stick on the golden path” and “get inflation down without causing a recession.”
“Thus far,” he added, “we are on the golden path.”
OBSERVATION - For the Fed, they only have a hammer and that makes everything look like a nail. Granted, the recession scenario expected by many economists to hit this year hasn’t fully blossomed as the many indicators suggested that it would doesn’t mean we are out of the woods yet. Housing and commercial property markets are connoting to be hammered, montage rates at decades high levels, REAL wage growth is still negative at current inflation rates and other sectors of the economy that are foundational such as the petroleum industry are being threatened with regulation into extinction. When our economy was far healthier in the Before Years, it only took the deliberate mismanagement of the wuhan plandemic to throw it into a tailspin. Our economy is barely able to handle the post wuhan environment while facing considerably more threats. The can may have been kicked down the road to 2024, but the reckoning will come.
**
Lending conditions at U.S. banks are tight and likely to get tighter, according to a Federal Reserve survey released Monday.
The Fed’s closely watched Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey showed that while credit conditions got more strict, demand declined as well.
Those results are important as economists who expect a recession believe that the most likely source will be from the banking system, which has had to respond to a series of 11 interest rate hikes as well as a momentary crisis in March when three midsize institutions failed.
OBSERVATION - Access to funding is critical for small businesses - and higher interest rates combined with stricter standard to qualify will and likely already have choked that portion of the economy. Throttling down small businesses greases the skids for a recession by taking a large sector of the economy out of play and make recovery even more difficult and prolonged.
**
A top economist predicted that U.S. unemployment will rise and jeopardize the Federal Reserve’s desire to avoid a recession.
Vanguard’s Joe Davis told Bloomberg’s “What Goes Up” podcast that while a spike in unemployment will suppress wage growth and help inflation fall to the Fed’s target level of 2%, it will also ruin hopes for a “soft landing,” where inflation falls without a recession or big job losses.
Business Insider reported that most banks expect unemployment to rise above 4% in the next 12 months as the Fed’s interest-rate hikes affect the labor market.
“It’s going to take some labor market weakness to go that last yard, as many call it, from 3% trend inflation down to 2%,” Davis, Vanguard’s chief global economist and head of investment strategy, told Bloomberg.
“Almost everyone has a rise in the unemployment rate of at least 30 or 40 basis points, so going above 4% over the next year. Well, historically, that has been 100% associated with a recession — now, not necessarily deep in magnitude, but a recession.”
https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/economist-unemployment-rising/2023/07/31/id/1129110/
OBSERVATION - Like I said, we are not out of the woods yet.
CW2 / Domestic violence -
Antifa / Transtifa and related groups continue to operate on a low simmer setting, with no major trigger events to muster support for anything other than local events and even then with lack luster trurnout.
POLITICAL FRONT –
Devon Archer’s congressional testimony has sent democrat apologists into a mega spin cycle via a combination of no reporting of the details / selective reporting of the details and misrepresentation of what was said and what was at stake. For most, his testimony was devastating and revealed what we already knew - biden lied, hunter cashed in on his political ‘connections’ and the illegalities are stacked one upon the other as the DoJ tries to cover them up. This criminal operation makes Watergate looks like child’s play. The evidence of political corruption is vindicating Trump and should cause both impeachments to be overturned - if the Republicans had any spine.
**
Interesting thought by Redstate - what if democrats used impeachment as away to remove biden as the 2024 candidate and replace him with a ‘better’ one?
**
Continued rumors that special proscutor Smith may seek pre-trial confinement of Trump when his indictments finally spill out in the classified documents witch-hunt.
Biden Watch –
Biden remains on vacation. . . . .
Illegal Immigration –
Concerns growing in the medical community of the plethora of diseases entering the country along with the illegals. One big ticket item has caught their attention is leprosy, the biblical plague from the Old and New Testaments.
That’s according to the CDC, which says that there is “rising evidence that leprosy has become endemic in the southeastern United States.”
According to researchers from the Kansas City University–Graduate Medical Education/Advanced Dermatology and Cosmetic Surgery Consortium raised concerns about the rise in the number of cases in the U.S.:
Leprosy has been historically uncommon in the United States; incidence peaked around 1983, and a drastic reduction in the annual number of documented cases occurred from the 1980s through 2000. However, since then, reports demonstrate a gradual increase in the incidence of leprosy in the United States. The number of reported cases has more than doubled in the southeastern states over the last decade. According to the National Hansen’s Disease Program, 159 new cases were reported in the United States in 2020; Florida was among the top reporting states.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/29/8/22-0367_article
One of their conclusions - researchers to suspect “that international migration of persons with leprosy is a potential source of autochthonous transmission.” They noted that “The number of international migrants in North America increased from 27.6 million persons in 1990 to 58.7 million in 2020, so a link to migration may account for the increase in incidence of leprosy in historically nonendemic areas.”
OBSERVATION - Already, the types of diseases entering the US is staggering, according to U.S. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP):
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) has designated the following conditions as communicable diseases of public health significance that apply to immigration medical examinations conducted in the United States:
Gonorrhea;
Hansen’s Disease (Leprosy), infectious;
Syphilis, infectious stage; and
Tuberculosis (TB), Active—Only a Class A TB diagnosis renders an applicant inadmissible to the United States. Under current Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) guidelines, Class A TB means TB that is clinically active and communicable.
We really don’t need a covert China-linked bio lab in Kalifornia when we have millions crossing the border with all this.
China –
Chinese incursions into Taiwan’s surrounding air and sea zones have continued to be steady to slightly increasing. Some analysts consider August to be one of the periods of time where favorable sea conditions could support an amphibious assault Taiwan.
IMHO, China is unlikely to launch such an assault at this time, they may used the period for exercises to practice such an assault.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the second year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated July 9, 2023
Russia is on a defensive footing across most of Ukraine, relying on Russian doctrinal defense in depth to blunt the Ukrainian offensive. With Ukraine lacking air superiority, Russia has taken chance in using its aircraft (helicopters and fast movers) to more directly assist its ground forces, though at an increasing loss of airframes.
The month plus of Ukraine offensive action has forced Russia to give up terrain on all fronts - most notably in the Bakhmut area where Russian forces are now being in danger of being encircled.
Russian reserves are increasingly being used to try to stop Ukrainian advances. Just how big and combat capable of a reserve force is debatable. Reports that Russia has amassed about 180,000 troops opposite of Kharkiv may be a ploy to freeze some of the Ukraine forces out of the offensive to the south. However, this number includes cooks, bottle washers and other logistic elements, so the ‘teeth’ numbers are likely much lower.
Russia’s strategic ballistic and cruise missiles continue to show evidence of massively reduced inventories. Recent attacks indicate the Russia has started to produce its own Shahed drones with Iranian assistance. Russia capable of continued, though limited, attacks in this arena.
Russia is capable of launching small scale attacks in various sectors of company and small sized elements, but any large scale offensive action in the face of the heavy demands from defending against the Ukrainian offensive are essentially nil.
********
Over half a dozen military conscription offices were attacked with Molotov cocktails yesterday across the country. In most instances, the people who did it were pensioners as old as 80 years old.
Though unconfirmed, in some cases the arsonist claim they were instructed to do it by an individual presenting himself as an FSB employee.
Kerch Bridge update –
The bridge has been closed over the past several days over fears of another Ukraine attack as well as to facilitate repairs.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Thunderstorms early in the week with temperatures in eastern Ukraine forecast to reach the 100s towards the end.
Longer term forecasts for mid to late October include cold and rains across Europe. Highs only in the 50s and 60s Fahrenheit.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Information continues to be tight concerning operations along the front from both sides. Kharkiv was targeted with some Shaed drones overnight and scattered Russia artillery strikes along the entirety of the front.
Satellite images show that the railroad bridge in Chongar, one of only two railroad crossings connecting Crimea to the rest of Ukraine is severely damaged after a Storm Shadow Strike earlier this week. Russia relies heavily on rail to move men and material, because it doesn’t have the road lift capacity. When the Kersch Bridge rail road portion gets taken out - when, not if- Russian forces will find themselves in a very severe pickle.
Ukraine resumed drone strikes in Moscow, striking the “IQ-Quarter” the same Building which was Hit a few days ago, the Drone is reported to have struck the 17th Floor which is occupied by the Russian Ministry of Digital Transformation. The drone strike also caused Moscows air port to temporarily close.
According to Russian military sources, “The Armed Forces of Ukraine made an attempt to attack the patrol ships “Sergey Kotov” and “Vasily Bykov” of the Black Sea Fleet with three sea unmanned boats, performing tasks to control navigation in the southwestern part of the Black Sea, 340 km southwest of Sevastopol. The navigation “control” is linked to the attempt to blockade ships from primarily shipping Ukraine grain. No word on any successful strikes by the drone ships.
OUTLOOK –
Ukraine continues to hammer Russia’s C3 and logistics nodes while its aggressive and successful counter battery fire neutralizes the much larger Russian artillery advantage. Analysts note that Ukraine has hit key rail nodes throughout southern and eastern occupied Ukraine - massively disrupting Russian logics efforts that are now having to bring supples and material in to Ukraine from the east and not from the Crimea region.
The progress of the offensives in southern Ukraine is taking shape much like those last fall against Russian forces west of the Dniper River. Cut off supplies and reinforcements while maintaining pressure that forces Russian to try to maintain the same level of artillery and ground troop actions. This is now on a much larger scale.
It seems from all the OPSEC related silence on Ukrainian actions that there may be a tactical pause in effect to consolidate the breach in the so called first Russian defensive line in order to assess Russian movements of troops to reinforce the defense and to bring other Ukrainian forces into position to exploit weak points and success. The tactical situation is dynamic and fluid and can change quickly.
Final note, Ukraine has hit Moscow twice in as many days. Its own long range drone capability - the so called “Beaver” drones - is rapidly developing and in the intermediate term cause all kinds of problems with Russian PR by bringing the war to the mostly sheltered denizens of Moscow. The fact that they have had success - in the most recent case of hitting the same govt target twice in a row, - has embarrassed the putin administration and has dismayed the weakness of the Russian military to protect the city. Russia’s options - throw dozens of ballistic and cruise missiles at Ukraine targets to get marginally similar results. Though many analysts thought that Russia would be out of such weapons by now, clearly they cannot sustain massive assaults like those a couple weeks ago, where several dozen ballastic/cruise missiles were fired over the course of several days. Now the rate is down to a handful and are being wasted mostly on terror efforts (striking civilian apartments) than strategic targets.
Belarus -
Wagner presence continues to grow as they establish their operation base and move out to start ‘training’ Belarus troops. They continue the PR push threatening to cause mischief against Poland and Baltic nations.
Poland –
Armor heavy units continue to be positioned near the Belarus border.
Europe / NATO General –
“The presence of Wagner fighters in Belarus poses a serious threat to Lithuania, Poland and Latvia,” President of Lithuania Gitanas Nausėda said. According to him, they started monitoring the situation and intensified intelligence measures, because Wagner can be used for provocations.
Africa general –
The situation in West Africa is poised to spin dangerously out of control as a regional conflict is becoming a potential reality.
Both Burkina Faso and Mali announced that they would go to war to assist Niger if ECOWAS intervenes. ECOWAS has given Niger a week to dissolve the coup and jihadist factions are watching. France has also issued an ultimatum to Niger.
In the African Republic, there are now several military bases of Western countries with a total contingent of troops of 1.5 thousand French and 1 thousand US military.
This fight is developing along the lines of “junta-ruled” nations backed by Russia , and civilian-governed nations backed by France, US and the EU.
OBSERVATION - Though Russia backs the coup in Niger, the amount of support they can be expected to provide would largely be cheering from the sidelines as the war in Ukraine has severely tasked its military are resources.
A regional war would throw the region into a deep famine and economic disaster, in addition to associate increase in diseases. There is a remote chance of direct French and US involvement due to the presence of forces in the country. Remote, but not out of the question, especially France which has deep ties to the country.
**
Other African news, political leaders in South Africa have become more vocal in condoning growing support to exterminate all whites in the country (Boers). Since apartheid was removed in SA, the nation has spun downward into a third world cesspool, with corrupt govt after corrupt govt failing to meet even the basics needed for the population. The white Afrikaners have over the past few years withdrawn from society and have worked to protect their farms - the only thing that is working in the country - from being pilfered. Should the black racists in SA have their way, a famine of huge magnitude will strike southern Africa as the blacks there have demonstrated time and again that they are incapable of running the agricultural system on their own. Currently SA’s power grid is in shambles and its water supply system is falling apart as well.
Black Swans
Hurricane / Typhoon season’s peak is approaching this month. Already China has been hammered with record rain and our Gulf and Atlantic coastlines are certainly vulnerable. Pay attention to your local weather forecasts and don’t be caught unawares. Major storm(s) could impact agriculture as well as fuel supplies.