"You not say Ukraine lose."
Posted on 08/15/2023 2:35:08 PM PDT by Kazan
I will try to make this simple. It is a complex question, but it is something we should be contemplating if the world is going to avoid a nuclear holocaust. It boils down to three possibilities:
*Unconditional Surrender
*Negotiated Settlement
*Prolonged Conflict and Exhaustion, i.e. Stalemate
From Russia’s perspective the military operation in Ukraine is not a war. War means destroying the enemy — physically, materially and politically. Despite the claims from Western propaganda, Russia has shied away from inflicting mass civilian casualties. Russia has not tried to destroy Western ISR platforms, Ukrainian government infrastructure or Ukrainian political officials. In short, Russia has only played a few of the military cards it holds. Going to war means you go all in.
Ukraine and its NATO allies hold a diametrically opposed view — this is a Russian war of aggression. In contrast to Russia, Ukraine has not only mobilized its population of military aged men, but it has dragooned youth under the age of 18 and men between the ages of 45 and 65 into uniform and sent the cannon fodder forward. Ukraine’s ability to sustain a war footing going forward is entirely dependent on money and weapons supplied by the United States and other NATO member states. Without foreign support Ukraine cannot continue to fight a modern industrial war.
So let us review some crucial facts:
1. Ukraine is suffering devastating military casualties and does not have a trained reserve force it can send to the battlefield.
2. Ukraine lacks a viable fixed wing combat air capability.
3. Ukraine lacks a stockpile of tanks, vehicles, artillery, artillery shells.
4. Ukraine does not have secure training facilities/bases on its own territory and must rely on other NATO countries to provide training. (This means the training is limited and not standardized.)
5.Ukraine’s counter-offensive, which was supposed to breach Russia’s Surovikin defense lines, has failed and Ukraine lacks the combat power to escalate attacks.,p. 6. Russia, by contrast, has ample numbers of trained troop reserves, artillery ammunition, artillery (mobile and fixed), cruise missiles, drones, more than a thousand fixed wing combat aircraft, attack helicopters, and massive air defense systems.
7. Russia is self-sufficient in critical natural resources required to supply its defense industries.
8. Russia is no longer dependent on the West for trade and its economy is growing in-spite of Western economic sanctions.
Many Western analysts insist that the situation unfolding in Ukraine is a stalemate and postulate that the war with Russia will drag on for years to come. Nonsense. Given the facts outlined above, the advantages fall entirely into the Russian side of the ledger. Ukraine does not enjoy a single advantage over Russia at this stage. In my view, it is unlikely that the Russian/Ukrainian war will produce a stalemate.
What about a negotiated settlement? Possible, but any deal will be on Russia’s terms. Russia will insist on international recognition of Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk as permanent parts of Russia. This is non-negotiable. Ukraine’s political leaders continue to insist that is a non-starter. In other words, there is no deal in the offing.
Which leaves us with the third possibility — unconditional surrender. Ukraine’s military is heading towards a breaking point because of mounting casualties. Ukraine does not have a cadre of trained reserves waiting in the wings ready to rush to the front to continue the effort to breach Russia’s defensive lines. Ukraine is facing a situation like the one that confronted the Confederate General, Robert E. Lee, at Appomattox. Lee’s beleaguered army still wanted to carry on the fight against the North but, despite their spirit, they lacked the logistics and manpower to continue. Lee recognized the futility of the situation and agreed to the generous terms offered by General Ulysses Grant. I believe the moment is approaching when Ukraine’s General Zaluzhny will face a similar moment of truth.
I think the most likely scenario is a major rift between Zelensky and his military commanders over whether to continue the war. Ukrainians having a desire to fight is no substitute for having the necessary supplies of weapons and, more importantly, trained troops to use those weapons. At present, Ukraine has no viable path for sustaining military operations without guaranteed support from NATO.
The wild card in these calculations is NATO. Worst case — the United States or other NATO members decide to intervene by sending their own troops to Ukraine . This will mark the end of the “Special Military Operation” and the start of a full fledged war between NATO and Russia.
If you are interested in some of the “scholarship” on ending wars, I am providing links to some academic efforts on this subject below. I do not endorse or agree with some of the conclusions, but I thought it would be useful grist for those who wish to delve deeper into the subject.
This message was approved by the Russian government.
The war may “end” some day; but the hostility will NEVER end.
It’s all been so needless and stupid.
As I see it, Russia has about another year to deplete the West of their weapons. After that and a lot of training, our woke factories will finally have people who know which end of a screwdriver to hold...and the West will finally start to ramp up weapons production.
But before that, there’s a damn good chance that the West will exhaust their inventories and Russia will simply roll as far as they want.
Of course China could decide to openly side with Russia, and then it’s game over for the West, as they all but admitted when the subject first came up.
Russia gets a land bridge to Crimea and Biden claims it as a victor for “rules based order” is my guess
It will end with a negotiated settlement after the establishment finds another war to start.
The stupid war will end when Putin’s assistants and Zelensky’s assistants meet with Vatican diplomats every day for two weeks to hammer out positives for both countries. Diplomacy always works.
The RuZZians! have fought the Ukraine, America, and Europe to a standstill and they are not even fully mobilized and China has not yet provided weapons......
Methinks that you want to dance in nuclear fire Petrosius.
Ok lefty noob.
Trump would have done it by now.
I guess eventually a term of peace where Russia gets what they want and whatever is left, we’ll be on the bill to rebuild.
Ukraine will lose.
with a wimper
"You not say Ukraine lose."
Nuland and Bolton can’t drop dead fast enough for me.
If it were up to Bolton, we’d be planning to fight and a nuclear war with Russia. He’s crazy enough to think that would be a good idea.
Incompetent military? You’re nuts. The Russians are grinding an army that size of the one we faced in Vietnam into dust.
If you want to back Biden, get the hell off this website, out of the Republican party and become a Democrat.
My hope would be that the DMZ would actually include some formerly (before 2014) Russian lands, as that might give Ukraine a carrot that would allow them to save face.
Yes Russia does have many size and resource advantages (without other countries supporting Ukraine), but you have to look back at the history of Ukraine to put things in context.
The Ukrainian people have been starved, killed, sent off to forced labor camps to die, exiled from their homeland, all on orders from Moscow for well over a hundred years. What Russia has done since 2014 is criminal, as in war crimes.
When I was in eastern Europe over a year ago near the start of the renewed war, people in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia were very supportive of Ukraine because they felt Putin, if not stopped, would continue on to their countries. I have been to Finland and they remember the Winter War of 1939 and the continuation of the Winder War with Russia. The point is that there will be no trust in eastern Europe of any kind of war that ends with Russia that doesn't not involve the defeat of Russia. Without a defeat of Russia, people in Europe will not sleep soundly.
How will it end? With a lot of politicians in this country, their family members, and their political donors, even wealthier than they already are.
Jerusalem Desolated, as WW 3 is kicked off in grand style... September 2023, 3 1/2 years after the the WEF and discipled world leaders stopped Church services and required attendance by the Hebrews in Israel. Middle of the week, since the Beast system raised its ugly mug.
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