Actually this is exactly what l would expect.
Analysing Israel’s ‘proof’ that it wasn’t behind Gaza hospital bloodbath: Experts examine IDF’s dossier of ‘evidence’ including images of misfiring rocket, lack of crater and shrapnel on roof
By David Averre
08:47 EDT 18 Oct 2023 , updated 14:49 EDT 18 Oct 2023
Israel published a slew of evidence it said showed a misfiring rocket caused blast.
Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad slammed IDF claims it did not strike hospital.
Now experts have weighed in on the statements shared by the warring sides...
Now, experts review each piece of evidence provided by the IDF to suggest Israel was not behind the brutal hospital blast. ...
Images of blast site ‘inconsistent’ with an Israeli aerial strike ...
What the experts say
RUSI aerial warfare analyst Justin Bronk agreed with Hagari’s statements.
He wrote: ‘No crater or obvious shrapnel pattern consistent with IAF JDAM/Mk80 series bombs visible....
Joel Rayburn, director of the American Center for Levant Studies, said: ‘There is no bomb crater here and nowhere near the destruction that would be required to cause (hundreds of deaths).
‘The initial reports of an airstrike that allegedly killed hundreds of people are not plausible given this physical scene.’
Former UN war crimes investigator Marc Garlasco concurred: ‘Whatever hit the hospital in Gaza it wasn’t an airstrike. Even the smallest JDAM leaves a 3m crater. Widespread surface damage and total lack of cratering inconsistent with an airstrike,’ he concluded.
Open-source intelligence group GeoConfirmed also said the strike was likely to have been caused by ‘a missile launched by a Palestinian group [which] exploded mid-air (reason unknown) and one piece fell on the hospital causing an explosion’, based on analysis of videos and images of the scene.
And sharing an image of what appeared to be fire damage and minimal impact damage to the courtyard outside the hospital, Bellingcat founder Eliot Higgins said: ‘The is the most noticeable damage to the ground, which, if it were the impact point of the munition used, would mean it’s pretty small payload, although at this moment we can’t know if it’s not pre-existing damage, so I wouldn’t want to draw conclusions from it.’
[...]
What the experts say
Speaking on the result of the blast, Dr Andreas Krieg - a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London - said: ‘If we look at the evidence... whatever happened in that car park (at the hospital) was very unlikely to be an Israeli airstrike.
Tal Hagin, an investigative analyst specialising in the Israel-Palestine conflict, said of the video footage: ‘Due to the fuel time on the rocket and the explosion, I’d assume this was most likely an R-160 (rocket used frequently by Palestinian militants)... There is a high likelihood that this rocket misfired - but its payload was not entirely destroyed, resulting in a devastating explosion.
‘Conclusion based on current data: A misfired rocket by Hamas/PIJ was responsible for the explosion at the hospital.’
J Andres Gannon, an assistant professor at Vanderbilt University, in the US, told the BBC the explosion appears to be small, meaning that the heat generated from the impact may have been caused by leftover rocket fuel rather than an explosion from a warhead.
And US National Security spokesman Adrienne Watson said that, while a full investigation is still pending, ‘our current assessment... is that Israel is not responsible for the explosion in Gaza yesterday’.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12644477/Israels-evidence-hospital-bloodbath-caused-misfired-rocket-Gaza-terrorists-IDF-claims-satellite-photos-footage-wiretapped-phone-call-prove-isnt-blame-horror.html