“I respectfully disagree. China is in no condition to fight a war like that.”
I respectfully agree!
But just because they are in no condition to fight a war of conquest against any overseas neighbor doesn’t mean they won’t do it anyway.
Just like we are seeing in the Russian war to conquer Ukraine the Russians were ill prepared and dreadfully overconfident of their abilities.
Why?
Because decades of authoritarianism has conditioned their people not to give their leadership actionable negative information. People who tell Putin or Xi a truth that is not what Putin or Xi want to hear risk being denounced as counter-revolutionary, defeatist, traitors, and etc.
It’s easier to tell them what they want to hear.
“Yes, Tsar Putin! We can esily defeat Ukraine in ten days!”
“Yes, Chairman Xi! We can easily defeat Taiwan in ten days!”
The ability of Russia or China to win a war does not at all factor into the political decision to go to war.
But I will say that China is better postured to win a land war than an amphibious war. Hopefully China turns its eyes north to reconquer Siberia while leaving Taiwan alone.
I agree with a lot of that.
But Xi is smarter than Putin.
Putin is a brawler. Xi will slice you with a razor.