Posted on 02/24/2024 5:59:01 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
This list only includes destroyed vehicles and equipment of which photo or videographic evidence is available. Therefore, the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here. Loitering munitions, drones used as unmanned bait, civilian vehicles and derelict equipment are not included in this list. All possible effort has gone into avoiding duplicate entries and discerning the status of equipment between captured or abandoned. Many of the entries listed as 'abandoned' will likely end up captured or destroyed. Similarly, some of the captured equipment might be destroyed if it can't be recovered. When a vehicle is captured and then lost in service with its new owners, it is only added as a loss of the original operator to avoid double listings. When the origin of a piece of equipment can't be established, it's not included in the list. The Soviet flag is used when the equipment in question was produced prior to 1991. This list is constantly updated as additional footage becomes available.
(Excerpt) Read more at oryxspioenkop.com ...
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 18, 2024
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-18-2024
Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) Head Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov specified that the Russian offensive effort that Ukrainian officials have been forecasting will likely begin in June 2024.
Budanov stated in an April 17 article in the Washington Post that Russia will launch a “big” offensive in June 2024 with the aim of seizing all of Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts.
Budanov also stated that Russian forces will try to make battlefield gains throughout 2024 as part of efforts to influence Western decision-making. Budanov had previously forecasted that a future major Russian offensive would begin in late May or early June 2024, and it is notable that Budanov has now narrowed his forecast to June and identified the likely aim of the Russian offensive.
Previous major Russian offensive efforts have similarly aimed to seize the remainder of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts.
Kremlin snuff box
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
The Russian Armed Forces must reach the borders of the DPR by October 1
The spring-summer campaign promises to be quite interesting. Our troops do not hide their plans to continue the offensive on several sectors of the front at once. For security reasons, we will not disclose details - who, where and how is planning the attack, however, some tactical tasks are known.
In particular, by October 1, the Russian army must liberate the entire territory of the DPR (we are talking about reaching the borders of the former Donetsk region). At the same time, it is important to preserve offensive potential and preserve as much equipment and personnel as possible.
“Final passage on Saturday”
Ukrainska Pravda reports:
Pentagon ready to send military package to Ukraine immediately after Congress passes bill
“Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder... said that this package, in particular, will include air defence equipment.
Quote: “As we’ve done in the past, we can move within days... The package would likely include things like air defence and artillery capabilities,” the official said.”
Kremlin snuff box, 04/19/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
What happened to our Tu-22M3 in the Stavropol Territory? Three versions
Firstly, we would definitely recommend waiting for the results of the Department of Defense investigation.
Secondly, the Ukrainians have already stated that the fall of our strategic bomber is the result of their work. There is no need to rush here, because the plane crashed more than 300 km from the front line, and trusting the enemy in war is the last thing.
It’s still preliminary, but there are three versions.
The 1st (and main) is problems with the engine. It is important to clarify here that since the beginning of the Northern Military District, strategic aviation has been used extremely often. This is definitely an additional experience for the pilots. But also wear and tear of equipment.
We don’t like to talk about problems with maintenance, but the command of the Aerospace Forces privately admits that part of the aircraft fleet needs more careful maintenance right now.
The 2ns version is an attack from Ukraine. It is worth noting here that, in theory, the modernized S-200 air defense systems could reach our Tu-22M3. However, the probability of a hit is extremely low, our intelligence interlocutors say.
The 3rd version is an attack by saboteurs on Russian territory. Sources in the intelligence services consider the likelihood of such a scenario to be extremely low. Primarily because of the altitude at which the plane was flying.
The condition of the crew members is being clarified. After medical assistance they will give testimony and much will become clear. Stratavia pilots are rare specialists, worth their weight in gold. And they also hinted that due to frequent flights, engines wear out faster.
“When is Moscow Marge going to force a vote on a motion to vacate?”
Babylon Bee reports:
“House Republicans Demand New Speaker Who Will Be Equally Worthless But Maybe With Different Hair Or A Cool Mustache Or Something”
PARTNERS.
“GUR sources also said the Russian A-50 in February was brought down by S-200.”
“Budanov told me Ukraine used S-200 to take down the Tu-22 M3. A Ukrainian defense official told me “partners” helped modify the guidance system.”
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1781435085541007413
The S-200 does have the potential range to reach out 300+ km. Back in 2001, Ukraine was conducting a live fire exercise. Both an S-200 and S-300 battery engaged a drone, with the S-300 missile destroying the target. The S-200 continued past the destroyed target and locked onto a Russian TU-154 passenger aircraft and destroyed it at a range of 300+ km, 250 km PAST the drone target.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Siberia_Airlines_Flight_1812
Still, Russian forces should have known of the missile launch and been able to employ countermeasures or just turn around and run.
“Kardymovo, Smolensk region. UAV arrival at the refinery. 290 km from the borders of Ukraine.”
https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1781533490082689403
Kremlin snuff box, 04/20/24
https://t.me/s/kremlin_secrets
Losses of the Russian Armed Forces at the front are growing. Even in comparison with the liberation of Artemovsk and 2022
In touch, the column #we are asked - what are the real losses of the Russian army during the Northern Military District?
Here we will take a restrained position and will not give exact numbers (although we know the order of the numbers). There is a Ministry of Defense for this, let them decide when and how to announce the exact number of deaths.
Some “journalists” calculated by name that Russia lost at least 51,000 military personnel during the Northern Military District.
This is true? The actual numbers are likely to be higher. Many warriors have been declared missing, although with a high degree of probability they died.
What about losses now?
The new tactics of the Russian Armed Forces are bearing fruit. Territories are being liberated, but there is a nuance. We are suffering significantly higher losses than even at the very beginning of the Northern War.
And the losses are not in technology, but in people. The tactic of breaking through defense lines in small groups works, including due to the lack of personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
But those who are on the defensive actually cause significant damage to our troops. And even the active use of aviation does not always help (although it helps).
The tactics of working in small groups during the liberation of Soledar and Bakhmut were used by units of the Wagner PMC. The real numbers of losses during those assaults are still not known.
If such breakthrough attempts continue now, the equipment will be saved, but the losses of personnel will be serious.
—
Russian losses in Ukraine by April: 51 thousand confirmed, the average losses for the week remain
https://www.bbc.com/russian/articles/cld05vpy06eo?ocid=wsrussian.social.in-app-messaging.telegram..russiantelegram_.edithigher than in 2022
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 19, 2024
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-april-19-2024
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov signaled Russia’s intent to seize Kharkiv City in a future significant Russian offensive operation, the first senior Kremlin official to outright identify the city as a possible Russian operational objective following recent Ukrainian warnings that Russian forces may attempt to seize the city starting in Summer 2024.
Lavrov stated during a radio interview with several prominent Russian state propagandists on April 19 that Kharkiv City “plays an important role” in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s idea of establishing a demilitarized “sanitary zone” in Ukraine to protect Russian border settlements from Ukrainian strikes.
Lavrov stated that Putin has very clearly stated that Russian forces must push the frontline far enough into Ukraine - which Lavrov explicitly defines as into Kharkiv Oblast - to place Russian settlements outside of the Ukrainian strike range.
This requirement is a very vague definition that could include the entirety of Ukrainian territory as long as an independent Ukrainian state exists and is willing to defend itself.
Lavrov stated in response to a question about where Russian forces will go after creating a “sanitary zone” that Russian authorities are “completely convinced” of the need to continue Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Lavrov responded in seeming agreement to a comment from one of the interviewers, who suggested that Lavrov’s earlier remarks meant that Russian forces will have to continue to attack further into Ukraine after creating the “sanitary zone” to protect the settlements that would then be within the zone and Ukrainian strike range.
Lavrov’s remarks suggest that the Kremlin will likely use the idea of a constantly shifting demilitarized “sanitary zone” to justify Russian offensive operations further and further into Ukraine.
Prominent Russian propagandist and state television host Olga Skabeyeva framed Russia’s drone and missile strikes against Kharkiv Oblast as part of Russia’s efforts to create the “sanitary zone” during a speech on April 19, suggesting that additional prominent Kremlin mouthpieces are also laying the informational groundwork to justify ongoing Russian strikes and a future offensive operation against Kharkiv City under the pretext of defending Russian citizens.
Ukrainian officials, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, have recently identified the threat of a possible Russian summer offensive operation aimed at seizing Kharkiv City.
ISW continues to assess that a Russian offensive operation to seize Kharkiv City would be an extremely ambitious undertaking that would pose significant challenges to both the Russian forces responsible for the effort and to the wider Russian campaign in Ukraine.
ISW also assesses that US military assistance is vital to Ukraine’s ability to defend against any summer Russian offensive operation, including against Kharkiv City.
The missile definitely has the range to reach the Tu-22 M3 that was shot down.
To achieve the kill, the guidance system was probably modified from semi-active homing to command guidance with active radar homing for terminal guidance.
The S-300 command center can control S-200 systems.
The Tu-22 appears to have had no warning of being tracked by radar and no warning of a SAM launch.
The Tu-22 Electronic Warfare suite is clearly garbage.
SAM launch warnings would be provided by A-50s, which are no longer flying.
Also, the Russian over the horizon backscatter (OTH-B) radar would be able to detect SAM launches in real-time.
Isn't it amazing that shortly after the Russian backscatter radar is damaged, Ukraine shoots down a Tu-22.
Isn’t it amazing that shortly after the Russian backscatter radar is damaged, Ukraine shoots down a Tu-22.
—
Very OOD.
Senate planning to vote on Tuesday after House passes military aid bills today.
Its a PARTY in the USA.
“Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on Saturday said he is hoping to reach an agreement on how to proceed on foreign aid that would allow for a Tuesday vote.
“We came to a tentative agreement last night, and if the hotline clears this morning, we expect to announce an agreement allowing the next vote to be on Tuesday early afternoon,” he said this morning.”
Just brings tears of joy to the eyes.
“On April 16, Ukraine struck a control center of the 331st Guards Airborne Regiment with HIMARS projectiles, killing 8 officers. Among them are the regiment’s chief of intelligence, chief of artillery, chief of communications and senior assistant to the regiment chief of staff.”
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1781681102144274756
“Ukraine shoots down a Tu-22.”
ISW notes that this was the first time that one of the missile launching bombers was shot down by Ukraine (using the same approach that shot down the A-50’s).
They note that this demonstrated capability may constrain how Russia conducts its strike campaign against Ukraine, going forward.
Russia is experimenting with protective measures for their refineries.
OilPrice.com reports:
“Russian oil company Bashneft, part of state-controlled giant Rosneft, has installed metal mesh at its refineries to protect them from drone attacks from Ukraine, Russian media reported on Friday, quoting Radiy Khabirov, the head of the Bashkortostan region where Bashneft is based.
“We don’t stop there. There are a number of solutions there, which I won’t talk about yet. They are classified. But believe me, we worry about this very much,” the Bashinform agency quoted Khabirov as saying.”
(Free Bashkortostan!)
ITS A PARTY IN THE USA.
My knees are holding up.
Kazan, who has called for my death on FR, (https://freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/4231804/posts#13) must be VERY SAD.
“House today approved $95.3B in aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan as well as legislation forcing China to divest from TikTok with 1yr or app faces a ban in U.S.,using Russian seized assets to rebuild Ukraine & new sanctions on Iran & Russia.Package of 4 bills now heads to Senate.”
https://twitter.com/CraigCaplan/status/1781747283509342630
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