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To: samtheman
There is a some good reason for long-term thinking in this article. The science that has taken us from 86 potential impactors in 1980 to 5,388 now is the same science that has begun to realize how much history has been influenced by actual impacts.

The last notable earth impact was the 1908 Siberian 'Tunguska' impact.The world was very lucky that this occurred over an almost unpopulated land mass as that was an estimated 500 kiloton (TNT equivalent) event. If this meteor has struck minutes earlier or later we might be living in a radically different world. A few moments later and St.Petersburg, home of the Romanov Tsars would have been very close to the air burst. A later moment and it would be over the shallow Baltic, tsunamis on Baltic shores? Earlier impacts over Canada or Alaska would have been notable.

Regardless, the estimate for this kind of minimal to no crater event (stony meteor) ranges on one to several centuries. Such an equivalent event on Washington DC or Moscow or Beijing or others, could potentially trigger a nuclear exchange unless sufficient foreknowledge is available. Impacts of larger or denser metors are being discovered on a frequent basis as this Atlantic article discusses, especially now that 'water surface' sites are being looked for.

When you look at these impacts and how they could effect our current world, think of what we need to do with only a small fraction of the monies that are now being discussed for mitigating 'manmade' global warming that is, IMHO, unproven theory. The bonus to working to mitigate astronomic impactors is that it will increase our space capabilities and that would lead to things I think of as advances in human history.

15 posted on 05/25/2008 8:49:23 AM PDT by SES1066 (Cycling to conserve, Conservative to save, Saving to Retire, will Retire to Cycle.)
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To: SES1066
When you look at these impacts and how they could effect our current world, think of what we need to do with only a small fraction of the monies that are now being discussed for mitigating 'manmade' global warming that is, IMHO, unproven theory. The bonus to working to mitigate astronomic impactors is that it will increase our space capabilities and that would lead to things I think of as advances in human history.
You are absolutely right. "Manmade global warming" is not only unproven by the so-called "mitigations" are even more unproven.

Meanwhile, it's an absolute certainty that asteroids have impacted earth in the past and at a bare minimum we should be doing a better job of cataloging what's in the neighborhood, which, in my opinion, includes the Kuiper.

I also agree with the article (and the video) that spending 300 billion dollars for a "Motel 6 on the moon" is beyond stupid and that the development of automated systems in space (to deal with this problem, but also to do much more fundamental solar-system research) should be getting much more money than it's currently getting.

16 posted on 05/25/2008 12:02:45 PM PDT by samtheman
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To: SES1066; samtheman
I need to correct a factual error of my own in this comment.

If this meteor has struck minutes earlier or later we might be living in a radically different world. A few moments later and St.Petersburg, home of the Romanov Tsars would have been very close to the air burst.

I looked this up further and the rotation speed at 60 degrees north is 512+ mph and St.Petersburg is a bit less than 2,500 miles away at just about the same latitude. so it would have been 4.75+ hours, NOT MOMENTS. The author blushes, shuffles feet and resolves to do better in the future. We now return you to your regular program...

17 posted on 05/25/2008 12:31:16 PM PDT by SES1066 (Cycling to conserve, Conservative to save, Saving to Retire, will Retire to Cycle.)
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