[cripplecreek]

The moon is about 1/4 the size of the earth so I suspect the chances of impact would be about 1/4 less than the chances of a bigun hitting us.

[He Rides A White Horse]

There was an asteroid labelled 2009 DD45 that passed by earth approximately 45,000 miles away. That is close even for the moon which is a mean distance of some 250,000 from earth.

I don't think the size difference is what matters. I would guess that when you take into account the vast distances in the cosmos and the solar system, it is probably the same chance.

I might say that if you played a lottery with a billion to one odds, buying four tickets would not increase your winning potential four-fold.

[MAD-AS-HELL]

that is true but the moon has a past history of getting lit up by asteroids as is evident on it’s dark side.