[Mamzelle]

NASA’s been lying to us about the weather in re Climategate. What evidence do they have that there’s going to be increased actvity?

[TaraP]

They proably have been meeting with the Bliderbergs and the Mayan Kings...no doubt....

[jongaltsr]

NASA’s been lying to us about the weather in re Climate gate. What evidence do they have that there’s going to be increased activity?

...Because - 2 wrongs make a right in their world !

[jongaltsr]

NASA’s been lying to us about the weather in re Climate gate. What evidence do they have that there’s going to be increased activity?

...Because - 2 wrongs make a right in their world !

[jongaltsr]

NASA’s been lying to us about the weather in re Climate gate. What evidence do they have that there’s going to be increased activity?

...Because - 2 wrongs make a right in their world !

[dangus]

Solar Weather is highly cyclical. Cycle 24 is long overdue.

But what they don’t say:

Being overdue suggests it will be very small. They were very, very late to concede this point, in spite of an incredible amount of evidence that it would be small. Nonetheless, a small cycle means far more severe solar weather than we’ve had since the previous peak in the late 1990s.

FWIW, sometimes we even skip cycles, as happened during the “Dalton Minimum,” which coincided with the “Little Ice Age.” Cycle 24 is so late, I was starting to think we might skip it. Apparently, it is on the way, now, however.

[El Gato]

What evidence do they have that there’s going to be increased actvity?

The normal solar cycle. The sun has been dormat, and getting more so since about 2001, now it's time for a wake up. Although the predicted "wake up" is pretty mild.

The sun even has a sunspot (group actually).

However wake ups have in the past not occurred as expected. This one seems to be on track as you can see above, but it's really too soon to tell.

The sun, and the rest of the solar system, is expected to enter a region of the galaxy with a relatively higher concentration of dust and gas than our present location, called the Local Fluff (heh I just report 'em I don't make 'em up) However we may already have done so, although it gets denser as you go in, but the density is not uniform even on the scale of the solar system. There are "clouds" and "voids" comparable in size to the solar system, but they get bigger and denser as you go into the "local fluff". Whether that will do much to the sun, I don't know, but it could have interesting "space weather" effects nonetheless, especially considering that the earth's magnetic field is waning, moving towards reversal of polarity, as it has done many times in the past. Not much happened those other times, but it's not known if we were in something like the "local fluff" at any of those times in the past.

[DB]

Well it is entering its next 5.5 (average) year up cycle but all indications are it is going to be much weaker than anything we’ve had for a long, long time.

[northman99]

There is a well known sunspot/solar activity cycle. Typically the period is about 11 years. We have been in the low of the cycle the last couple years so it was due to change. These cycles have been observed for hundreds of years.

Ask any ham radio operator if you are still skeptical.

[NJRadioGuy]

Technically we’re at the very start of solar cycle 24, and it’s two years late already. Solar flux numbers — the measure of solar output — are still at extremely low levels; 72 as of right now. Anything above 100 is moderate and above 150 is high. At maximum, readings of 200 are not uncommon.

Cycles run approximately 11 years, but 23 and the trough between 23 and 24 have gone on for a lot longer than normal. There’s NO sign of any serious solar output and we’ve only experienced a small handful of noticeable solar disturbances in the last 2 years, none of which had the potential to do any damage whatsoever.

That said, big X-10 class flares, coronal mass ejections and the like can indeed cause major headaches and if they can find a way to forecast them accurately, great.

Now, however, solar forecasters only exist to make weather forecasters look accurate in comparison IMHO.

[cpdiii]

The late and weak start of the current sunspot cycle is what happened prior to the little ice age "The Maunder Minimum."

NASA lies.

[aruanan]

What evidence do they have that there’s going to be increased activity?

Well, because it goes in cycles and even after a long period with little or no sun spot activity, the activity increases. Now, after a long period with no sun spots, we see the occasional little one here or there. It's pretty good evidence that there will be increased activity. To argue the contrary, that lack of activity means there will never be such activity again, is ludicrous. Their statement that solar activity will increase is at the level of saying that winter follows fall and that spring will follow winter. Such a prediction is of the "DUH!" variety.