The differential equations that describe the Sun’s behavior are non-linear, even more non-linear than those which describe the earth’s atmosphere.
The non-linearity make long term prediction NOT POSSIBLE. One can make short term preditions, and describe medium long term trends.
Edward Lorenz wrote a paper in the 1960s that described the effect of nonlinearity on the ability to predict. And that is why “Glowball Warming” is bollocks.
Theory seems to go along the lines of "The Sun's magnetic field is strong when the Sun is active. That shields the Earth from incoming cosmic radiation. Cosmic radiation causes ionization of the atmosphere....which promotes cloud formation which reflects away solar radiation (heat)".
More clouds equals lower temps. Reverse it (the Sun) and you get less clouds and higher temps.
Time will tell....in about 40 years.
This is old news to anyone that has been following the sun for the last two years. The sun spots were “supposed to” ramp up a couple of years ago. This next “high”, if the pattern follows, won’t be very high. Hard to predict ahead of time, but there are indicators.
I just hope it will only be like the “Maunder Minimum” (Little Ice Age) if it follows past solar cycle patterns.
The pattern that always scares me is the long-term termperatures of interglacial periods. The warm period we are in is the longest. And the temps drop very far and very quickly when they do.
Yep, we will never predict the future. God is laughing about our arrogant ignorance.